June 19, 2022, Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report
Volume 06,
Issue 02 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report
Absolutely Nothing Is
Fundamentally Bullish and the Dow Utilities Finally Succumbed to the Stock
Market Bear
Lunacy is never rewarded.
A society tolerating lunacy will not find their rights to life, liberty,
and the pursuit of happiness. Human IQ continues to decline since
developments in social media, the internet, and a handful of geeks and
news media attempting to guide human thinking. Unfortunately, those few
individuals will find success as history clearly demonstrates more
millennial of misery than happiness.
History also advises there
are periods of rebellion where the so-called elite are eliminated. Product
innovation the past five hundred years has contributed to the increased
quality of life for those living under the guidance of magna carta and the
U.S. Constitution. Prior to those two documents, the primary products of
innovation were within the instruments of war, where the masses would
gladly join some lunatics army and die on the battlefield. In essence,
there are no elites. All humans are the same, but some have a penchant to
have the masses follow their lunatic chit chat.
For the first time since 2009, nearly all
of the economic elements are marked bearish on this webpage that you can
find by clicking this sentence.
Since 1896, the stock market bull hibernates like a stock market bear when
the combined absolute value of deflation/inflation and interest rates
exceed 8%. Inflation alone is greater than 8% and Joe Biden, Bernie
Sanders, and the political lunatics in power are 100% responsible. It is
easily provable, but the masses brain power is too deficient to think
accurately. Inaccurate economic thinking by the majority of any culture
offers self-imposed misery. Non fact-based opinions conjured up by mystics
always lead to misery. The good news is that mystics are not immune to
that misery. Economic implosion does not discriminate. It hacks away on
all with the same randomness of an exploding bomb.
Bearish unanimity persists
along the near-term and mid-term cycles. The Mid-term Indicant is
signaling bear for all ten major indices. The lone protector against the
stock market bear, the Dow Utilities-(
Chart)
fell by a whopping 9.5% last week. It fell below Blue, Red, and Green in
doing so, stimulating its new bear signal. The other nine major indices
were already bears since April 22, 2022 with the exception of some on
April 29, 2002 and the Dow Transports last bear signal on May 13, 2022.
For the first time since Ben Bernanke’s 2009 stock market bull, the
Indicant is now is now more than 50% out of the market.
When in doubt, sell. This
market is headed to Yellow Bear status. That is an additional 7.8% stock
market drop, which is not unfathomable since the ten major indices fell by
an average of 5.9% last week. The only good news about the stock market is
that some force vectors are starting to shift upward, offering the
potential of a bullish bounce along the near-term horizon. If you see
stock market bullishness the next few days, consider it as a bullish
spurt. The Federal Reserve is no longer being passive. Last week’s rate
hikes were massive. They are only getting started and they are only
addressing the symptoms. The root cause of inflation is the current
administration. The Fed has two more years to deal with that. The 1970’s
is now underway. Click the next few sentences to get a feel for what is
about to occur.
The S&P500 fell by over 30% from 1969
through early 1970.
There was a nice rebound following that initial bear, but the next one
was worse.
The S&P500 fell by over 50% from 1973
through most of 1974.
Mid-term Indicant Status of
the Major Indices
The major stock market indices can be
accessed by clicking this sentence.
Click this sentence to review how to
understand the below terms.
Click this sentence to understand the
details on the charts.
Mid-term Indicant Red Bulls-Click for
Explanation1):
0-Red Bull, 10-Non-Red Bulls
Comment: The lone Red Bull, DJU-(Chart),
expired this past week All ten major indices are below Red by an average
of 15.6%. The stock market must climb above Red to gain the desired
protection against the stock market bear. That is not going to happen with
the current administration in power.
Mid-term Indicant Blue Bulls-Click for
Explanation2):
0-Blue Bulls, 10-Non-Blue Bulls
Comment: The ten major indices are below Blue by 10.6%. There
is no protection against the stock market bear here as well.
Mid-term Indicant Yellow Bears-Click for
Explanation3):
0-Yellow Bears, 10-Non-Yellow
Bears
Comment: All major indices are above Yellow by an average of 7.8%. The
absence of Yellow Bears strongly suggest economic depression is not
possible now. With only a 7.8% drop remaining to Yellow Bear status,
expect economic recession on the immediate horizon. Also, keep in mind,
severe stock market bears can drop 50.0% in a matter of weeks, while a
stock market bull’s 50% increase is much slower. Keep in mind a 50% drop
requires a 100% increase to displace the 50% drop.
Mid-term Indicant Green Bears-Click for
Explanation4):
10-Green Bears, --Non-Green Bears
Comment: The ten Green Bears are below green by 10.2%. That is very
bearish.
Mid-term Indicant Red to Green Position5):
10-Red Higher than Green; 0-Green
Higher Than Red
Comment: The mix here is irrelevant at this point with all red curves
above green curves. The over-heating indicator expired and awaiting a new
cycle of overheating. That will be quite some time from now. Most likely
several years from now. Much depends on elections and removal of the
nonsensicality of the newly found movement of the political elite as the
masters of delineating disinformation from fact. On the contrary they are
the masters of disinformation. It is amazing how evil introduces itself as
some sort of master of this and that, while they are simply pontificators
who has normal disdain from contrarian pontificators. Neither group is
good. The only good from humanity’s contribution are from within the three
meaningful groups of economic sectors. That is manufacturing, extraction,
and agriculture. All else is just noise that is no different from the
static you hear when your radio is near power lines.
Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Position6):
0-bullish domains, 10-bearish
domains
Comment: This supports the stock market bear.
Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Relative to
Vector Pressure7):
3-above pressure, 7-below
pressure
Comment: The recent bullish spurt propelled force higher than pressure,
offering the stock market bull a small glimmer of hope.
Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Position8):
0-bullish domains, 10-bearish
domains
Comment: This remains supportive of the stock market bear.
Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Direction9):
3-bullishly directed,
7-bearishly directed
Comment: This attribute offers a glimmer of hope for the stock market
bull, but still bearish.
Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Direction10):
6-bullishly directed,
4-bearishly directed
Comment: This remains supportive of the stock market bear as
the bull strongly prefers all ten be bullish directed while residing in
bearish domains.
Click this sentence to review how to
understand the above terms.
Click this sentence to understand how to
read the charts.
Mid-term Indicant Configured
Condition of Major Indices:
Configurations remain supportive for the stock market bear.
Weekly Buy/Sell Summary –
Stocks and Funds – Last Five Years
Click this sentence for a
graphical summary of what follows in this section.
It highlights historical performance since 2002. Simply scroll down the
webpage to see graphical and detail content of this section.
The below describes the same for the past
five years. If a particular year interest you, click this sentence, which
will show you all of the prior weekly reports dating back to 2002 along
with Indicant performance levels at the time of those reports.
From there, you can click the year of interest and then to the specific
time-period you are interested in. Please note that after the Weekly Stock
Market Report, dated Aug 12, 2018, ten years of history was replaced with
five years of history. Again, historical weekly reports, dating to 2002
remain available on the website. As 2008’s great bear market fades beyond
the 10th anniversary, just as the NASDAQ’s 2002 drop of 89% was
also no longer reported in 2012, it is no longer necessary to report 2008
here. These historical references, however, do remain on the website.
The website has stock market history dating
back to 1900.
The Mid-term Indicant generated
no
buy signals and
26-sell
signals this weekend. Clicking this sentence is where the Mid-term
Indicant buy and sell signals are displayed.
The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 139 of the 315-stocks and
funds tracked by the Indicant. Stocks and funds with hold signals are up
an average of 335.9% that annualizes to 73.1%. The Mid-term Indicant has
been signaling hold for these 139-stocks and funds for an average of
238.9-weeks. There have been 16 -buy signals for stocks and funds so
far, this year. Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by the
Indicant, hold signals are 44.1% in the market.
The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 150-stocks and funds of 315-tracked by
the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 24.7%
since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 83.0-weeks ago.
There have been 130-sell signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.
Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant, avoid
signals are 55.9% out of the market.
One year ago, on Jun 18, 2021, the Mid-term Indicant was holding
284-stocks and funds of the 316-tracked for an average of 137.8-weeks.
They were up by an average of 274.7%, annualizing at 103.6%. There were
30-avoided stocks and funds at this time last year. They were down by an
average of 39.9% since their sell signals an average of 192.5-weeks
earlier. There were no buy signals and one sell signal at this time of
year in 2021. There had been 46-buy signals and 14-sell signals
throughout the year on this weekend in 2021. Based on the number of stocks
and funds tracked by the Indicant, holds were 90.2% in the market and
avoids were 9.8% out of the market.
Two years ago, on Jun 19, 2020, the Mid-term Indicant was holding
222-stocks and funds of the 316-tracked for an average of 112.7-weeks.
They were up by an average of 236.0%, annualizing at 90.0%. There were
90-avoided stocks and funds at this time last year. They were down by an
average of 31.8% since their sell signals an average of 112.7-weeks
earlier. There were no buy signals and four sell signals at this time of
year in 2020. There had been 166-buy signals and 201-sell signals through
this weekend in Covid’s 2020. Based on the number of stocks and funds
tracked by the Indicant, holds were 70.5% in the market and avoids were
29.7% out of the market.
Three years ago, on Jun 21, 2019, the Mid-term Indicant was holding
210-stocks and funds of the 321-tracked for an average of 268.1-weeks.
They were up by an average of 241.6% (annualized at 46.9%). There were
109-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds
were down by an average of 20.0% since their respective sell signals an
average of 76.9-weeks earlier. There were two buy signals and no sell
signals on this weekend in 2019. There had been 84-buy signals and 48-sell
signals for the year through this weekend in 2019. Based on the number of
stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant, holds were 66.0% in the market
and avoids were 34.0% out of the market.
The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 241 stocks and funds on Jun
15, 2018. They were up 235.8% since their buy signals an average of
258.0-weeks earlier, annualizing at 47.4%. There were 72-avoided stocks
and funds on this weekend since their sell signals an average of
86.6-weeks earlier. There were three buy signals and four sell signals on
this weekend in 2018. There had been 36-buy signals and 63-sell signals in
2018 through this weekend of that year. Hold signals were 76.3% in the
market and avoid signals were 23.8% out of the market at this time of year
in 2018.
The above performance reflects status at the time of the updates.
Abandoned securities have no impact to the above
performance statistics
and the
historical report card.
They always represent
status at the time of that status and never changes. When securities
become NLT (no longer traded), their performance
levels are excluded from the report card at the time they become NLT.
There are no retroactive adjustments. The number of stocks and funds
tracked from week to week may differ because they are no longer traded or
listed on major stock exchanges.
The Indicant started retaining records of abandoned stocks and funds in
2012. There are advantages of retaining records by expressing the
consequences of an organization employing dilettante management and
related corporate leeching. All organizations eventually expire. The
primary causes of such expirations are corporate leeching, stupidity, and
arrogance (without cause). {Note: the same is true of governments that
fall prey to either economic leeching (FDR) and/or excessive egomaniacal
behavior by its leaders (Hitler)}.
Click here to see abandoned
securities.
Comments about Mid-term
Indicant Buy and Sell Signals
Selling and avoiding stocks have increased the past several months as
politicians have again wreaked havoc on the equity markets. The stock
market bear is dominant and as long as political fundamentals remain
intact, the stock market bull will remain shy.
Clicking this sentence will
take you to this weekend’s Mid-term Indicant buy/sell signals.
The Short-term Indicant
signals buy and sell for ETF’s, almost daily, provided the ETFs enjoy a
buy signal or endure a sell signal. They are not included in the Mid-term
Indicant summaries.
These short-term
models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts, while the
Mid-term Indicant includes fundamentals and longer-term technical data to
reject short-term trader nervousness.
The Daily Stock Market Report
reports status for the short-term model.
Economic Conditions –
Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates
Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.
Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for several years, do not
fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it
does. The markets, both free and controlled, are not constant. Control
freaks in political power have 100% potential to create economic and
social calamity with their desired result of a police state. That is why
they encourage asset destruction. That would give them absolute power.
That is never good for anyone but them.
Reported CPI
is no longer healthy. The
PPI,
as reported, is now unfavorably penetrating the stock market bull and the
economy. The annual inflation rate is reported at 8.7%. Oil prices are up
57.3% from this time one year ago. Oil is up by $80.66/BBL (+223.9%) since
Biden’s so-called election.
The Prime Rate, Discount Rate, and
Effective Rate increased 75-basis points on weekending Jun 17, 2022,
following a 50-basis point increase on weekending May 7, 2022, following a
25-basis points on weekending Mar 18, 2022, which was the first-rate
change since the 100-basis points decrease two years earlier on Mar 20,
2020. Economic
damage inflicted by the democratic party, germ warfare from their China
pals, and other overstepping U.S. communistic politicians, and the
self-proclaimed elites are now starting to manifest. The destination to a
decreased quality of life has begun.
The 3-Month T-Bill
shifted to Red Bull status on
weekending Jan 28, 2022, after about two and a half years of enduring
Yellow Bear status since Jul 19, 2019.
The T-Bill has risen a
significant amount the past several weeks to the delight of the stock
market bear. That behavior is now more visible on the chart as interest
rates continue escaping the gravity of zero in a race to the clouds of
stupidity.
The
Euro dropped to
Yellow Bear status on weekending Oct 22, 2021, after losing Red Bull
status on weekending Jul 31, 2021. It continues residence in the domain
of the Yellow Bear. The 2024-mean forecast is at $1.17 with more
aggressive intrinsic modeling, projecting $0.90 to $0.94.
The
Canadian dollar
remains in the neutral zone (between Red and Yellow) after climbing above
Yellow (weakening) during the week of July 17, 2021. Its 2024-mean
forecast is $1.29CA with projected polynomials forecasting much weaker
values ranging from $1.78CA to $1.83CA.
The
Japanese Yen
continues weakening since crossing above Red on Apr 2, 2021. Its narrow
min-max points from 2017 through mid-2021 remains impressive with that
tightness continuing through September 2021, when some additional
weakening occurred. It continues to be escaping that tight trading range
from 2017 through mid-2021. It weakened severely the week of Apr 4, 2022.
Its statistical mean forecast is at 112-yen/dollar by Dec 2024 while the
aggressive polynomials are projecting a range of 148-152-Yen/U.S. dollar.
It also strengthened during the week of the U.S. presidential election but
has been holding above Red the past several weeks (weakening).
The
British Pound
fell to Yellow Bear status as of Mar 11, 2022 and falling further below
Yellow. Its statistical mean forecast is at $1.34 with more aggressive
polynomials, projecting around $0.98-$1.02 by Dec 2024. The last bearish
cycle was deeper than the prior one suggesting a trend reversal favoring
its bearishness.
The
Bitcoin
fell to Yellow Bear status on week ending May 20, 2022 for the first time
since early 2020. After that bearishness, it is now fallen to around
$20,000.
Gold endured Yellow Bear
status on weekending Apr 2, 2021 and rejected that on weekending Apr 23,
2021. It is no
longer a Red Bull and now between Red and Yellow. The Dec 2024-mean
forecast is $1,910/oz. while the more aggressive polynomials are
projecting a Dec 2024 value approximating $1,290-$1,315/oz. You can keep
up with an approximation of this on the
Indicant Daily Stock
Market Report
by tracking
ETF#11-GLD.
Oil regained Red Bull status
on weekending Dec 31, 2020, after moving above the domain of the Yellow
Bear on weekending Jun 19, 2020.
It had been bouncy around $40/bbl. for several weeks but became highly
bullish following Biden’s so-called election. The Dec 2024-intrinsic and
aggressive polynomial forecast remains below zero with the statistical
mean forecast of $62/bbl. Saudi Royalty is very pleased with their new low
IQ puppets in D.C. The Russians are also delighted with an interpretation
they can retry conquering the world. There is some jawboning where the
Royalty is being told to lower prices or the D.C. puppets will be tossed
out.
The
CRB Bridge Futures
regained Red Bull status on weekending Dec 31, 2020, after abandoning
Yellow Bear status on the week of August 3, 2020. That correlated well
with a dumb populace and vote cheaters supporting the communistic takeover
attempt of the U.S. It is now aggressively contributing to inflation with
it regaining Red Bull status on weekending Feb 26, 2021. It also
strengthened during the week of the U.S. election and has continued doing
so with no sign of any countermeasures from the source of the inflationary
problem; the democratic party, news media, lunatic masses in their deep
state of tabula rasa, and now a little Russian guy attempting to conquer
other nations. It continues being bullish and thus inflationary.
Mortgage rates regained Red
Bull status on weekending Mar 12, 2021, after falling into Yellow Bear
status on weekending Apr 12, 2019.
As of weekending Dec 3,
2021, they were weak Red Bulls, but now increasingly militant to future
home buyers. This no longer remains a great time to finance real estate.
However, it is still arguably a good time, as interest rates will be
triple prevailing levels before 2024.
The
consumer price index
and
producer price index
are now computing with the combined absolute value of threatening interest
rates and inflation or deflation of 8%. That is not bullish.
Mid-term Indicant
Positions – Ten U.S. Indices
There were no new bull signals, and one new bear signal
this week for the major indices along the mid-term cycle.
The nine bears are down by an average of 13.0% since their bear signals
7.4-weeks ago.
The Mid-term Indicant Dow
Jones Industrial Average
performance is at $72.1 million. That beats buy and hold performance of
$4.4 million on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The
MTI S&P500
is at $4.43 million. That beats buy and hold’s $1.58 million on a Jan 6,
1950, $10,000 investment. The
MTI-NASDAQ
is at $2.86 million. That beats buy and hold’s $1.08 million on a Jan 29,
1971, $10,000 investment. The
MTI-Dow Transports
is at $42.804-million. That is better than buy and hold $1.035 million
since a $10,000 investment on Oct 19, 1928. The Mid-term Indicant model
beats buy and hold by 1,650.7%, 281.5%, 264.5%, and 4,135.5%,
respectively, for these indices as of this past week.
There are two reasons why the
Dow Transport
index is included in the above summary. It is used by the Dow Theory
Forecast, which has merit, albeit slowly. The second reason is the
statistical friendliness and its near-perfect sinusoidal waves. It tends
to stay committed to its underlying cycle of bullishness or bearishness
more than other indices.
The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change
during bull signals as buy and hold and the Indicant moves at the same
magnitude. The Indicant’s advantage only occurs during bear signals as the
cash holds constant, while the stock market dives.
Click here for a tour of the
Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.
Mid-term Indicant Positions -
NASDAQ100 Stocks
Click here to see NASDAQ100
report card history.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant Table of
NASDAQ 100 Stocks.
Mid-term Indicant Positions -
Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks
Click here to see Dow 30
report card history.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant - Table of
Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.
Mid-term Indicant Positions -
Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks
Click here to see Dow
Utilities Report Card history.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones
Utility Stocks Table.
Mid-term Indicant Positions -
Indicant Selected Stocks
Click here to see Indicant
Select Stock Report Card history.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant Table of
Indicant Selected Stocks.
Mid-term Indicant Positions -
Mutual Funds
Click here to see Mutual Fund
Report Card history.
Click here for the Mid-term
Table of Mutual Funds.
The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for
MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short
on April 3, 2009. It
is down 99.8% since then. Although this is classically presidential
post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy
and hold during 2009, 2013, 2017, and 2021 as the stock market bear
remained in hibernation, for the most part, in those four presidential
post-election years. Interest rates fell to historical lows in the 2008/9
recession and have persisted since then and thus giving rise to equity
attractiveness to investors. Recent elections are highlighting left
leaning political movements. The return of politburo wannabes in congress
will offer this fund and others like it, profound growth opportunities at
some future point, but not right now, even with the coronavirus inflicting
damage to the economy and the corrupt election of the democratic
(communist) party. Keep in mind, politburos confiscate. They are already
confiscating your freedom. Conditions are mounting favoring strong profit
potential in this economic climate, despite the newly forming political
threat by the communistic movement now underway with the guise of climate
change, racism, China virus-Covid rules, etc. Sociopathic political
leadership is more common than not throughout recorded history. The
presidential post-election year of 2021 successfully argued against
historical trends of stock market bearishness. Low interest rates continue
being credited with this and should be referred to as the Bernanke/Trump
bull. Rest assured lying politicians take credit. And, as always, a
populace believing the lies will eventually pay the price. Russia’s desire
to dominate others is a new opportunity for this fund, as long as the
dominated are not Americans. In that case, nothing has value, including
gold.
Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of
Mutual Funds
Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a
single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good
way to mix your investments.
Long Term Indicant
Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average
The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in
November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five
bull/bear cycles since 1920.
The Dow is up 932.5%, annualized at 30.3% since the Long-term Indicant
signaled bull 1,598-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on
the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable
interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull
signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with
today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up
triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when
considering long-term planning.
Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great
bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009
recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.
The next section is the last
daily stock market report for this past
week.
Short-term Indicant Stock
Market Report Archives
{Repeated here are from
the last trading day’s daily stock market report from the previous week.
Click this link to see all the daily
reports from the last 12-months.
Retaining here in the weekly report allows for longer retention periods of
the daily stock market reports that describe the short-term cycle at the
end of each week}.
Short-term Indicant Stock
Market Report Summary
Jun 17-The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for only one ETF. It is
contrarian QID-(Chart).
That is with extreme bearish configurations for the overall stock market.
Holding non-contrarian ETF’s is inappropriate at this time. Even partially
non-contrarian ETF#03-XLE-(Chart)-Energy
endured a sell signal/ However, it is still enjoying a Quick-term Indicant
hold signal from its Nov 27, 2020 buy signal where it is up 88.9% since
then. If it endures a quick-term sell signals, the current economic
recession will become worse as those in political power will attempt to
tax energy companies with their false claims they are responsible for
inflation. Those in political power are directly responsible for the
prevailing recession and inflation.
Short-term Indicant Stock
Market Details
Click this sentence to see table leading to
the charts.
Index Near-term Report Card
Summary
The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and
one
new bear.
Number of Near-term Bulls: 0 of 12
Duration of Near-term Bulls: N/A-wks-avg.
Near-term Bull Performance: N/A%; Annualized Performance: N/A%
Number of Near-term Bears: 12 of 12
Average Duration of Near-term Bears: 7.7-wks. avg.
Near-term Bears Average Performance: -10.3%
Near-term Performance
Advantage: Apr 22, 2022-Stock
Market Bear
Near-term Stock Market Cycle
Analyses
Near-term Indicant Non-Contrarian Configured Bullish Blue Bulls: 0 of 11
Near-term Indicant Non-Contrarian Configured Bearish Green Bears: 11 of 11
Near-term Position Cyclical
Advantage: Apr 22, 2022-Stock
Market Bear
Index Quick-term Report Card
Summary
The Quick-term Indicant signaled no
new bulls and no new
bears.
Number of Quick-term Bulls: 0 of 12
Average Duration of Quick-term Bulls: N/A-wks.
Quick-term Bull Performance: N/A%; Quick-term Annualized Performance:
N/A%.
Number of Quick-term Bears: 12 of 12
Average Duration of Quick-term Bears: 7.5-weeks-avg.
Quick-term Bear Performance: -10.0%
Quick-term Stock Market Cycle
Analyses
Configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 0 of 12
Configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 12 of 12
Quick-term Configured
Advantage: Apr 14, 2022-Quick-term
Advantage to Bear
Short-term Stock Market Cycle
Analyses
Non-contrarian force vectors in bullish domains: 0 of 11
Non-contrarian force vectors higher than vector pressure: 0 of 11
Non-contrarian vector pressure in bullish domains: 0 of 11
Non-contrarian bullish force vector direction: 0 of 11
Non-contrarian bullish vector pressure direction: 0 of 11
Short-term Advantage:
Short-term Advantage: Apr 14, 2022-Quick-term
Advantage to Bear
Indicant Volume Indicators
Jun 17-Both volume indicators elevated into the domain of high interest
internal to the prevailing bear cycle. That continues to bode well for the
stock market bear.
Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and
Charts
ETF Near-term Report Card
Summary
There were no buy signals and
four
sell signals along the
near-term cycle.
The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for one ETF. It is up 29.5%
since its buy signal 8.0-weeks ago, annualizing at 191.7%. The lone hold
is ETF#32-QID-(Chart).
The Near-term Indicant is avoiding 27-ETF’s.
They are down by an average of 13.3% since their sell signals an average
of 10.7-weeks ago.
Near-term ETF Cycle Analyses
Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 2
Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 1
Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 1
Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 1
Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 0
Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 26
Near-term Advantage:
Stock Market Bear
as of Apr 22, 2022
ETF Quick-term Report Card
Summary
The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy
signals and
four
sell signals.
The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for two ETF’s. They are up by an
average of 59.2% since their buy signals an average of 44.5-weeks ago,
annualizing at 69.2%.
The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 26-ETF’s. They are down by an average
of 13.3% since their sell signals 10.8-weeks ago.
Quick-term ETF Cycle Analyses
Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1
Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 2
Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 0
Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 0
Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 0
Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 27
Quick-term Advantage:
Quick-term Stock Market Bear May
13, 2022
Reverse Tangential
Projections
Click this sentence to the table,
highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections).
The values and
magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there
is 100% confidence in these bearish projections.
Click the
Short-term Indicant
to see the combined
table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The
table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models
and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or
Quick-term Indicant.
Other links:
Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for
the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for
the NASDAQ Composite Index
Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for
the S&P500 Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Understanding Content on the Short-term
Indicant Charts
Reverse Tangential
Projections
Click this sentence to the table,
highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections).
The values and
magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there
is 100% confidence in these bearish projections.
Click the
Short-term Indicant
to see the combined
table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The
table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models
and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or
Quick-term Indicant.
Other links:
Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for
the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for
the NASDAQ Composite Index
Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for
the S&P500 Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Understanding Content on the Short-term
Indicant Charts
Indicant Conclusion
As stated five weeks ago, “the nine Mid-term Indicant bear signals remain
supportive of the stock market bear. Fundamentals and technical
configurations are increasingly supportive of the stock market bear.” As
of June 17, 2022, there are ten Mid-term Indicant bears. That is fully
bearish and there is no reason to expect stock market bullishness until
you see bull signals.
Click
this sentence to keep up with the Short-term Indicant.
Click this sentence to maintain stock
market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.
Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes
can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.
http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm
Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that
continue to enjoy hold signals.
Hyperlinks
To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts,
statuses, etc., click the following hyperlink:
http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm
Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log
in. It is on the top of every page on the website, so you can always find
your way back.
Stop Loss Management
This was moved to the bottom of this report as its content rarely changes.
You will be notified when stop losses should be tightened or loosened.
The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with
less than a 20% unrealized capital gain. Of course, this includes new
buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after
buying, set the stop loss at the greater value of 8% or green curve
values, depending on your personal preferences.
For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and quadruple
digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do
not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to
minimize losses.
Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop
losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive
the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then
quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it
is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of
stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below
prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of
course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most
dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a
combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying. Long
after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow
curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio
values.
For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables.
If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average
the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is
rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is
a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its
value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop
losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow
passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow
price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are
supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece
of a great company or fund.
If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold,
normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is
signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific
buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other
opportunities will emerge.
Click this sentence to keep up with the
Short-term Indicant.
Click this sentence to maintain stock
market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.
Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes
can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.
http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm
Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that
continue to enjoy hold signals.
Happy Investing,
www.indicant.net
06/19/2022
June 5, 2022, Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report
Volume 06,
Issue 01 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report
The Dow Utilities Is the
Lone Guardian and a Repeat from the 1970’s
Fundamentally, nothing is different from last week. Unemployment was
purported to have improved. If accurate, that is yet more inflationary.
Strategic economic analysis is now underway to determine which is worse,
more employment or higher inflation. Once that analysis is completed the
stock market will follow the path that correlates with corporate earnings.
The ten major indices were down by an average of 0.9%. The most bearish
was the stock market bull’s guardian, the Dow Utilities-(Chart).
It fell by a solid 1.4%. Anyone desiring a return of the stock market bull
does not want to see the Dow Utilities endure a bear signal with all the
other major indices already inflicted with that. Some of you recall how
the stock market bear dominated in late 2008 “after” the Dow Utilities
succumbed to the stock market bear.
The prevailing stock market bear, although unsettling, has not yet been
dynamic, instead expressing mild erosion. The reason for that is due to
money rotating into the utility sector on those days when most other
sectors are bearish. The energy sector is another recipient of money
rotation in the current bear market. That dilutes funds from being
diverted to the utility sector and thus accelerating the probability of a
deep bear market.
Political behavior, economic behavior, and stock market behavior is like
the 1970’s.
Clicking this sentence highlights the
DJIA’s 40% drop in 1973-74 due to skyrocketing oil prices and a shortage
of the commodity.
OPEC’s embargo accelerated that. The embargo was created by political
missteps from a long line of politicians originating with JFK and ending
with Jimmy Carter.
Click this sentence to see a couple of 20%+
drops in the DJIA from 1977-1981.
During the time span from the early 1970’s to 1981, there were three
recessions. Politicians such as Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter only jawboned
as the dynamics of the economy and human behavior was beyond their grasp
of understanding. Crime was high in the 1970’s, just as it is now, and you
have a president who also jawbones. But this one jawbones nonsensicality
most of the time. At least Ford and Carter understood what they were
talking about although at an elementary level. The good news is that stock
market bull does not care about political jawboning. However, it does care
about legislation and executive orders. That is because most of the time,
such matters drive corporate profits down.
Politicians continue vocalizing nonsensicality. Although politicians
should be harmless to the economy since they do not contribute to it, you
are witnessing politician’s direct economic damage. The word, economy,
sounds a bit academic. The reduction in the quality of life is now
underway and it is politically driven. A healthy economy is required for
an increased quality of life. Politicians are aligning with Karl Marx, as
that lunatic, who was an economic leech somehow find enough other lunatics
to listen to him. Yet, you hear his ghost in unrelenting fashion from
contemporary politicians with Bernie Sanders leading in the messaging.
As stated, many times the only positive effect on the economy from
politicians is to undo prior political damage. Do not be surprised to find
a stock market over the next ten years like that in the 1970’s. The middle
class will endure the most pain.
Mid-term Indicant Status of
the Major Indices
The major stock market indices can be
accessed by clicking this sentence.
Click this sentence to review how to
understand the below terms.
Click this sentence to understand the
details on the charts.
Mid-term Indicant Red Bulls-Click for
Explanation1):
1-Red Bull, 9-Non-Red Bulls
Comment: The lone Red Bull, DJU-(Chart),
is above Red by 6.6%. The stock market bull is no longer dominant.
However, just one Red Bull prevents the stock market bear from absolute
domination.
Mid-term Indicant Blue Bulls-Click for
Explanation2):
0-Blue Bulls, 10-Non-Blue Bulls
Comment: The DJU-(Chart)
lost blue bull status this past week after regaining it in the prior week.
The absence of Blue Bulls is non-bullishness. The stock market bear can
attack without much resistance.
Mid-term Indicant Yellow Bears-Click for
Explanation3):
0-Yellow Bears, 10-Non-Yellow
Bears
Comment: All major indices are above Yellow by an average of 21.1%. The
absence of Yellow Bears strongly suggest economic depression is not
possible now. Stock market dynamics are never wrong in predicting that,
but sometimes predicts a non-existing recession. Recession or not, the
Indicant’s focus is to avoid bears. It will not wait for a 21.1% drop
before signaling bear. Rest assured a future Yellow Bear lurks, but not
along the mid-term horizon at this time. Also, keep in mind, severe stock
market bears can drop 50.0% in a matter of weeks, while a stock market
bull’s 50% increase is much slower. Keep in mind a 50% drop requires a
100% increase to displace the 50% drop.
Mid-term Indicant Green Bears-Click for
Explanation4):
7-Green Bears, 3-Non-Green Bears
Comment: The seven Green Bears are below green by 2.2%. Nine of the ten
major indices are bears due to falling below Green in the past several
weeks. The three non-Green Bears are above Green by an average of 4.2%,
but that is misleading since the DJU-(Chart)
is above Green by 12.1%.
Mid-term Indicant Red to Green Position5):
10-Red Higher than Green; 0-Green
Higher Than Red
Comment: The mix here is irrelevant at this point with all red curves
above green curves. The over-heating indicator expired and awaiting a new
cycle of overheating. That will be quite some time from now. Most likely
several years from now. Much depends on elections and removal of the
nonsensicality of the newly found movement of the political elite as the
masters of delineating disinformation from fact. On the contrary they are
the masters of disinformation. It is amazing how evil introduces itself as
some sort of master of this and that, while they are simply pontificators
who has normal disdain from contrarian pontificators. Neither group is
good. The only good from humanity’s contribution are from within the three
meaningful groups of economic sectors. That is manufacturing, extraction,
and agriculture. All else is just noise that is no different from the
static you hear when your radio is near power lines.
Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Position6):
0-bullish domains, 10-bearish
domains
Comment: This supports the stock market bear.
Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Relative to
Vector Pressure7):
8-above pressure, 2-below
pressure
Comment: The recent bullish spurt propelled force higher than pressure,
offering the stock market bull a small glimmer of hope.
Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Position8):
0-bullish domains, 10-bearish
domains
Comment: This remains supportive of the stock market bear. The DJU-(Chart)
vector pressure point fell into bearish domains this past week, increasing
support for the stock market bear.
Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Direction9):
10-bullishly directed,
0-bearishly directed
Comment: This attribute offers a glimmer of hope for the stock market
bull.
Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Direction10):
6-bullishly directed,
4-bearishly directed
Comment: This remains supportive of the stock market bear as
the bull strongly prefers all ten be bullish directed while residing in
bearish domains.
Click this sentence to review how to
understand the above terms.
Click this sentence to understand how to
read the charts.
Mid-term Indicant Configured
Condition of Major Indices:
Configurations remain supportive for the stock market bear.
Weekly Buy/Sell Summary –
Stocks and Funds – Last Five Years
Click this sentence for a
graphical summary of what follows in this section.
It highlights historical performance since 2002. Simply scroll down the
webpage to see graphical and detail content of this section.
The below describes the same for the past
five years. If a particular year interest you, click this sentence, which
will show you all of the prior weekly reports dating back to 2002 along
with Indicant performance levels at the time of those reports.
From there, you can click the year of interest and then to the specific
time-period you are interested in. Please note that after the Weekly Stock
Market Report, dated Aug 12, 2018, ten years of history was replaced with
five years of history. Again, historical weekly reports, dating to 2002
remain available on the website. As 2008’s great bear market fades beyond
the 10th anniversary, just as the NASDAQ’s 2002 drop of 89% was
also no longer reported in 2012, it is no longer necessary to report 2008
here. These historical references, however, do remain on the website.
The website has stock market history dating
back to 1900.
The Mid-term Indicant generated
no
buy signals and
no-sell
signals this weekend. Clicking this sentence is where the Mid-term
Indicant buy and sell signals are displayed.
The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 165 of the 315-stocks and
funds tracked by the Indicant. Stocks and funds with hold signals are up
an average of 371.0% that annualizes to 85.1%. The Mid-term Indicant has
been signaling hold for these 165-stocks and funds for an average of
226.8-weeks. There have been 16 -buy signals for stocks and funds so
far, this year. Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by the
Indicant, hold signals are 52.4% in the market.
The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 150-stocks and funds of 315-tracked by
the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 16.2%
since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 81.0-weeks ago.
There have been 104-sell signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.
Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant, avoid
signals are 47.6% out of the market.
One year ago, on Jun 4, 2021, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 280-stocks
and funds of the 316-tracked for an average of 139.9-weeks. They were up
by an average of 276.0%, annualizing at 102.6%. There were 32-avoided
stocks and funds at this time last year. They were down by an average of
37.0% since their sell signals an average of 182.9-weeks earlier. There
were four buy signals and no sell signals at this time of year in 2021.
There had been 44-buy signals and 13-sell signals throughout the year on
this weekend in 2021. Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by
the Indicant, holds were 89.9% in the market and avoids were 10.1% out of
the market.
Two years ago, on Jun 5, 2020, the Mid-term Indicant was holding
169-stocks and funds of the 316-tracked for an average of 217.1-weeks.
They were up by an average of 311.2%, annualizing at 74.5%. There were
89-avoided stocks and funds at this time last year. They were down by an
average of 28.4% since their sell signals an average of 112.7-weeks
earlier. There were 58 buy signals and no sell signals at this time of
year in 2020. There had been 166-buy signals and 196-sell signals through
this weekend in Covid’s 2020. Based on the number of stocks and funds
tracked by the Indicant, holds were 71.8% in the market and avoids were
28.2% out of the market. The post Covid Bull was well on its way to
dominate again after March 2020.
Three years ago, on Jun 7, 2019, the Mid-term Indicant was holding
209-stocks and funds of the 321-tracked for an average of 268.7-weeks.
They were up by an average of 233.4% (annualized at 45.1%). There were
112-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds
were down by an average of 22.7% since their respective sell signals an
average of 74.0-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell
signals on this weekend in 2019. There had been 81-buy signals and 48-sell
signals for the year through this weekend in 2019. Based on the number of
stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant, holds were 65.1% in the market
and avoids were 34.9% out of the market.
The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 247 stocks and funds on Jun
1, 2018. They were up 224.9% since their buy signals an average of
257.5-weeks earlier, annualizing at 45.4%. There were 73-avoided stocks
and funds on this weekend since their sell signals an average of
85.1-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this
weekend in 2018. There had been 33-buy signals and 57-sell signals in 2018
through this weekend of that year. Hold signals were 77.2% in the market
and avoid signals were 22.8% out of the market at this time of year in
2018.
The above performance reflects status at the time of the updates.
Abandoned securities have no impact to the above
performance statistics
and the
historical report card.
They always represent
status at the time of that status and never changes. When securities
become NLT (no longer traded), their performance
levels are excluded from the report card at the time they become NLT.
There are no retroactive adjustments. The number of stocks and funds
tracked from week to week may differ because they are no longer traded or
listed on major stock exchanges.
The Indicant started retaining records of abandoned stocks and funds in
2012. There are advantages of retaining records by expressing the
consequences of an organization employing dilettante management and
related corporate leeching. All organizations eventually expire. The
primary causes of such expirations are corporate leeching, stupidity, and
arrogance (without cause). {Note: the same is true of governments that
fall prey to either economic leeching (FDR) and/or excessive egomaniacal
behavior by its leaders (Hitler)}.
Click here to see abandoned
securities.
Comments about Mid-term
Indicant Buy and Sell Signals
Selling and avoiding stocks have increased the past several months as
politicians have again wreaked havoc on the equity markets. The stock
market bear is dominant and as long as political fundamentals remain
intact, the stock market bull will remain shy.
Clicking this sentence will
take you to this weekend’s Mid-term Indicant buy/sell signals.
The Short-term Indicant
signals buy and sell for ETF’s, almost daily, provided the ETFs enjoy a
buy signal or endure a sell signal. They are not included in the Mid-term
Indicant summaries.
These short-term
models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts, while the
Mid-term Indicant includes fundamentals and longer-term technical data to
reject short-term trader nervousness.
The Daily Stock Market Report
reports status for the short-term model.
Economic Conditions –
Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates
Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.
Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for several years, do not
fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it
does. The markets, both free and controlled, are not constant. Control
freaks in political power have 100% potential to create economic and
social calamity with their desired result of a police state. That is why
they encourage asset destruction. That would give them absolute power.
That is never good for anyone but them.
Reported CPI
is no longer healthy. The
PPI,
as reported, is now unfavorably penetrating the stock market bull and the
economy. The annual inflation rate is reported at 8.3%. Oil prices are up
70.7% from this time one year ago. Oil is up by $82.05/BBL (+228.9%) since
Biden’s so-called election.
The Prime Rate, Discount Rate, and
Effective Rate increased 50-basis points on weekending Mar 18, 2022. That
is the first-rate change since the 100-basis points decrease two years
earlier on Mar 20, 2020.
Economic damage inflicted by
the democratic party, germ warfare from their China pals, and other
overstepping U.S. communistic politicians, and the self-proclaimed elites
are now starting to manifest. The destination to a decreased quality of
life has begun.
The 3-Month T-Bill
shifted to Red Bull status on
weekending Jan 28, 2022, after about two and a half years of enduring
Yellow Bear status since Jul 19, 2019.
The T-Bill has risen a
significant amount the past several weeks to the delight of the stock
market bear. That behavior is now more visible on the chart as interest
rates continue escaping the gravity of zero in a race to the clouds of
stupidity.
The
Euro dropped to
Yellow Bear status on weekending Oct 22, 2021, after losing Red Bull
status on weekending Jul 31, 2021. It continues residence in the domain
of the Yellow Bear. The 2024-mean forecast is at $1.17 with more
aggressive intrinsic modeling, projecting $0.87 to $0.91.
The
Canadian dollar
remains in the neutral zone (between Red and Yellow) after climbing above
Yellow (weakening) during the week of July 17, 2021. Its 2024-mean
forecast is $1.29CA with projected polynomials forecasting much weaker
values ranging from $1.79CA to $1.84CA.
The
Japanese Yen
continues weakening since crossing above Red on Apr 2, 2021. Its narrow
min-max points from 2017 through mid-2021 remains impressive with that
tightness continuing through September 2021, when some additional
weakening occurred. It continues to be escaping that tight trading range
from 2017 through mid-2021. It weakened severely the week of Apr 4, 2022,
and now escaping its tight trading range. Its statistical mean forecast is
at 110-yen/dollar by Dec 2024 while the aggressive polynomials are
projecting a range of 148-152-Yen/U.S. dollar. It also strengthened during
the week of the U.S. presidential election but has been holding above Red
the past several weeks (weakening).
The
British Pound
fell to Yellow Bear status as of Mar 11, 2022 and falling further below
Yellow. Its statistical mean forecast is at $1.32 with more aggressive
polynomials, projecting around $0.97-$1.01 by Dec 2024. The last bearish
cycle was deeper than the prior one suggesting a trend reversal favoring
its bearishness.
The
Bitcoin
fell to Yellow Bear status on week ending May 20, 2022 for the first time
since early 2020. After that bearishness, it is stalled between $20k and
$30k.
Gold endured Yellow Bear
status on weekending Apr 2, 2021 and rejected that on weekending Apr 23,
2021. It is no
longer a Red Bull and now between Red and Yellow. The Dec 2024-mean
forecast is $1,820/oz. while the more aggressive polynomials are
projecting a Dec 2024 value approximating $1,290-$1,315/oz. You can keep
up with an approximation of this on the
Indicant Daily Stock
Market Report
by tracking
ETF#11-GLD.
Oil regained Red Bull status
on weekending Dec 31, 2020, after moving above the domain of the Yellow
Bear on weekending Jun 19, 2020.
It had been bouncy around $40/bbl. for several weeks but became highly
bullish since Biden’s so-called election. The Dec 2024-intrinsic and
aggressive polynomial forecast remains below zero with the statistical
mean forecast of $60/bbl. Saudi Royalty is very pleased with their new low
IQ puppets in D.C. The Russians are also delighted with an interpretation
they can retry conquering the world. There is some jawboning where the
Royalty is being told to lower prices or the D.C. puppets will be tossed
out.
The
CRB Bridge Futures
regained Red Bull status on weekending Dec 31, 2020, after abandoning
Yellow Bear status on the week of August 3, 2020. That correlated well
with a dumb populace and vote cheaters supporting the communistic takeover
attempt of the U.S. It is now aggressively contributing to inflation with
it regaining Red Bull status on weekending Feb 26, 2021. It also
strengthened during the week of the U.S. election and has continued doing
so with no sign of any countermeasures from the source of the inflationary
problem; the democratic party, news media, lunatic masses in their deep
state of tabula rasa, and now a little Russian guy attempting to conquer
other nations. It continues being bullish and thus inflationary.
Mortgage rates regained Red
Bull status on weekending Mar 12, 2021, after falling into Yellow Bear
status on weekending Apr 12, 2019.
As of weekending Dec 3,
2021, they were weak Red Bulls, but now increasingly militant to future
home buyers. This no longer remains a great time to finance real estate.
However, it is still a good time, as interest rates will be triple
prevailing levels before 2024.
The
consumer price index
and
producer price index
are now computing with the combined absolute value of threatening interest
rates and inflation or deflation of 8%.
Mid-term Indicant
Positions – Ten U.S. Indices
There were no new bull signals, and no new bear signals
this week for the major indices along the mid-term cycle.
The Mid-term Indicant is signaling bull for one of the ten major indices.
That bull is up by 16.8% since its bull signals 62.0-weeks ago and
annualizing at 14.1%. The nine bears are down by an average of 2.7% since
their bear signals an average of 5.4 weeks ago.
The Mid-term Indicant Dow
Jones Industrial Average
performance is at $72.1 million. That beats buy and hold performance of
$4.8 million on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The
MTI S&P500
is at $4.43 million. That beats buy and hold’s $1.76 million on a Jan 6,
1950, $10,000 investment. The
MTI-NASDAQ
is at $2.86 million. That beats buy and hold’s $1.20 million on a Jan 29,
1971, $10,000 investment. The
MTI-Dow Transports
is at $29.8-million. That is better than buy and hold $1.0 million since a
$10,000 investment on Oct 19, 1928. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy
and hold by 1,499.6%, 251.8%, 237.8%, and 4,135.5%, respectively, for
these indices as of this past week.
There are two reasons why the
Dow Transport
index is included in the above summary. It is used by the Dow Theory
Forecast, which has merit, albeit slowly. The second reason is the
statistical friendliness and its near-perfect sinusoidal waves. It tends
to stay committed to its underlying cycle of bullishness or bearishness
more than other indices.
The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change
during bull signals as buy and hold and the Indicant moves at the same
magnitude. The Indicant’s advantage only occurs during bear signals as the
cash holds constant, while the stock market dives.
Click here for a tour of the
Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.
Mid-term Indicant Positions -
NASDAQ100 Stocks
Click here to see NASDAQ100
report card history.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant Table of
NASDAQ 100 Stocks.
Mid-term Indicant Positions -
Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks
Click here to see Dow 30
report card history.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant - Table of
Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.
Mid-term Indicant Positions -
Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks
Click here to see Dow
Utilities Report Card history.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones
Utility Stocks Table.
Mid-term Indicant Positions -
Indicant Selected Stocks
Click here to see Indicant
Select Stock Report Card history.
Click here for
Mid-term Indicant Table of
Indicant Selected Stocks.
Mid-term Indicant Positions -
Mutual Funds
Click here to see Mutual Fund
Report Card history.
Click here for the Mid-term
Table of Mutual Funds.
The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for
MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short
on April 3, 2009. It
is down 99.8% since then. Although this is classically presidential
post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy
and hold during 2009, 2013, 2017, and 2021 as the stock market bear
remained in hibernation, for the most part, in those four presidential
post-election years. Interest rates fell to historical lows in the 2008/9
recession and have persisted since then and thus giving rise to equity
attractiveness to investors. Recent elections are highlighting left
leaning political movements. The return of politburo wannabes in congress
will offer this fund and others like it, profound growth opportunities at
some future point, but not right now, even with the coronavirus inflicting
damage to the economy and the corrupt election of the democratic
(communist) party. Keep in mind, politburos confiscate. They are already
confiscating your freedom. Conditions are mounting favoring strong profit
potential in this economic climate, despite the newly forming political
threat by the communistic movement now underway with the guise of climate
change, racism, China virus-Covid rules, etc. Sociopathic political
leadership is more common than not throughout recorded history. The
presidential post-election year of 2021 successfully argued against
historical trends of stock market bearishness. Low interest rates continue
being credited with this and should be referred to as the Bernanke/Trump
bull. Rest assured lying politicians take credit. And, as always, a
populace believing the lies will eventually pay the price. Russia’s desire
to dominate others is a new opportunity for this fund, as long as the
dominated are not Americans. In that case, nothing has value, including
gold.
Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of
Mutual Funds
Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a
single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good
way to mix your investments.
Long Term Indicant
Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average
The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in
November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five
bull/bear cycles since 1920.
The Dow is up 1,036.5%, annualized at 33.8% since the Long-term Indicant
signaled bull 1,596-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on
the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable
interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull
signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with
today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up
triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when
considering long-term planning.
Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great
bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009
recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.
The next section is the last
daily stock market report for this past
week.
Short-term Indicant Stock
Market Report Archives
{Repeated here are from
the last trading day’s daily stock market report from the previous week.
Click this link to see all the daily
reports from the last 12-months.
Retaining here in the weekly report allows for longer retention periods of
the daily stock market reports that describe the short-term cycle at the
end of each week}.
Short-term Indicant Stock
Market Report Summary
Jun 3-Fri-Most short-term force vectors have shifted back into a bearish
direction. Some are wavering offering the stock market bull some mild
hope. Petroleum related ETF’s remain bullish. Short-term configurations
remain bearish, except vector pressures crossed into bullish domains,
offering yet another technical element of potential bullishness. Avoiding
the stock market is prudent at this point, except those tied to energy.
Short-term Indicant Stock
Market Details
Click this sentence to see table leading to
the charts.
Index Near-term Report Card
Summary
The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.
Number of Near-term Bulls: 1 of 12
Duration of Near-term Bulls: 1.0-wks-avg.
Near-term Bull Performance: -1.4%; Annualized Performance: -1.4%
Number of Near-term Bears: 11 of 12
Average Duration of Near-term Bears: 5.7-wks. avg.
Near-term Bears Average Performance: -3.2%
Near-term Performance
Advantage: Apr 22, 2022-Stock
Market Bear
Near-term Stock Market Cycle
Analyses
Near-term Indicant Non-Contrarian Configured Bullish Blue Bulls: 11 of 11
Near-term Indicant Non-Contrarian Configured Bearish Green Bears: 0 of 11
Near-term Position Cyclical
Advantage: Apr 22, 2022-Stock
Market Bear
Index Quick-term Report Card
Summary
The Quick-term Indicant signaled no
new bulls and no new
bears.
Number of Quick-term Bulls: 1 of 12 (Quick-term Bullish Unanimity)
Average Duration of Quick-term Bulls: 37.0-wks.
Quick-term Bull Performance: 12.9%; Quick-term Annualized Performance:
18.1%.
Number of Quick-term Bears: 11 of 12
Average Duration of Quick-term Bears: 5.5-weeks-avg.
Quick-term Bear Performance: -2.9%
Quick-term Stock Market Cycle
Analyses
Configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 0 of 12
Configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 9 of 12
Quick-term Configured
Advantage: Apr 14, 2022-Quick-term
Advantage to Bear
Short-term Stock Market Cycle
Analyses
Non-contrarian force vectors in bullish domains: 11 of 11
Non-contrarian force vectors higher than vector pressure: 11 of 11
Non-contrarian vector pressure in bullish domains: 10 of 11
Non-contrarian bullish force vector direction: 0 of 11
Non-contrarian bullish vector pressure direction: 11 of 11
Short-term Advantage:
Short-term Advantage: Apr 14, 2022-Quick-term
Advantage to Bear
Indicant Volume Indicators
Jun 3-Volume was higher this past week on strong stock market bearishness
than prior week stock market bullishness, which was reported as fake last
week. And indeed it was fake. Both volume indicators remain in the domain
of high interest. That remains supportive of the stock market bear.
Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and
Charts
ETF Near-term Report Card
Summary
There were no buy signals and no
sell signals along the
near-term cycle.
The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for six ETF’s. Those enjoying
hold signals are up by an average of 7.8% since their buy signals an
average of 5.2-weeks ago, annualizing at 78.3%.
The NTI is avoiding 26-ETF’s.
They are down by an average of 5.1% since their sell signals an average of
9.1-weeks ago.
Near-term ETF Cycle Analyses
Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 0
Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 1
Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 1
Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 0
Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 23
Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 0
Near-term Advantage:
Stock Market Bear
as of Apr 22, 2022
ETF Quick-term Report Card
Summary
The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy
signals and no sell
signals.
The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for six ETF’s. They are up by an
average of 31.3% since their buy signals an average of 30.4-weeks ago,
annualizing at 53.6%.
The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 26-ETF’s. They are down by an average
of 4.8% since their sell signals 8.8-weeks ago.
Quick-term ETF Cycle Analyses
Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1
Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 2
Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1
Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 0
Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 2
Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 20
Quick-term Advantage:
Quick-term Stock Market Bear May
13, 2022
Reverse Tangential
Projections
Click this sentence to the table,
highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections).
The values and
magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there
is 100% confidence in these bearish projections.
Click the
Short-term Indicant
to see the combined
table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The
table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models
and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or
Quick-term Indicant.
Other links:
Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for
the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for
the NASDAQ Composite Index
Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for
the S&P500 Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Understanding Content on the Short-term
Indicant Charts
Reverse Tangential
Projections
Click this sentence to the table,
highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections).
The values and
magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there
is 100% confidence in these bearish projections.
Click the
Short-term Indicant
to see the combined
table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The
table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models
and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or
Quick-term Indicant.
Other links:
Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for
the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for
the NASDAQ Composite Index
Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for
the S&P500 Index
Indicant Volume Indicator
Understanding Content on the Short-term
Indicant Charts
Indicant Conclusion
As stated the past three weeks, “the nine Mid-term Indicant bear signals
remain supportive of the stock market bear. Fundamentals and technical
configurations are increasingly supportive of the stock market bear.” As
stated last week, “nothing is different, despite last week’s strong stock
market bullishness.” The stock market was bearish this past week. That is
congruent with political fundamentals.
Click
this sentence to keep up with the Short-term Indicant.
Click this sentence to maintain stock
market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.
Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes
can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.
http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm
Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that
continue to enjoy hold signals.
Hyperlinks
To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts,
statuses, etc., click the following hyperlink:
http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm
Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log
in. It is on the top of every page on the website, so you can always find
your way back.
Stop Loss Management
This was moved to the bottom of this report as its content rarely changes.
You will be notified when stop losses should be tightened or loosened.
The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with
less than a 20% unrealized capital gain. Of course, this includes new
buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after
buying, set the stop loss at the greater value of 8% or green curve
values, depending on your personal preferences.
For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and quadruple
digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do
not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to
minimize losses.
Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop
losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive
the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then
quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it
is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of
stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below
prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of
course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most
dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a
combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying. Long
after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow
curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio
values.
For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables.
If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average
the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is
rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is
a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its
value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop
losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow
passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow
price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are
supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece
of a great company or fund.
If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold,
normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is
signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific
buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other
opportunities will emerge.
Click this sentence to keep up with the
Short-term Indicant.
Click this sentence to maintain stock
market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.
Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes
can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.
http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm
Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that
continue to enjoy hold signals.
Happy Investing,
www.indicant.net
06/05/2022