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Apr 15, 2018 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 04, Issue 03 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

  

Mid-term Indicant Bearish Attributes Persist

Last week’s stock market bullishness was without substance. It could become substantive, but other attributes must shift out of their bearish configurations. Specifically, the last two major indices with bullish vector pressure fell prey to the stock market bear’s desire for bearish pressure. Despite last week’s overall stock market bullishness, the NASDAQ and NASDAQ100 endured bearish vector pressure this past week. Rest assured, the stock market bear has not hibernated, as we approach spring. Now, spring time has nothing to do with that. Bearish vector pressure has everything to do with inviting the stock market bear out of hibernation. The next major attribute of pure substance is the ability of the stock market bull to fight back. Although last week was bullish, there was no fight in the bull; that was just short-term traders fooling around. Bullishly directed force vectors is what you desire for those desiring a stock market bull.

 

Nine of the ten major indices were bullish last week. The lone bear was the Dow Jones Utilities. That bodes well for normalcy, as money vacated security in favor of more risk. However, what most do not know is the risks are much higher until force vectors reverse their bearish direction into bullish direction. Even then, vector pressure must also reverse its direction and move back into bullish domains. Until that happens risks of a dominant bear remain high.

 

Click this sentence to view the NASDAQ index. You will notice its force vector continues dipping strongly into bearish domains. That, alone is not worrisome, but becoming a bit more discerning when vector pressure also dips into bearish domains. That was the first time NASDAQ vector pressure has fallen into bearish domains in over two years. Click this sentence to view the NASDAQ 2013-2017-Mid-term Indicant Chart. You will notice the NASDAQ endured a bear signal in early 2016. As you can see, that was a short-lived bear, as the NASDAQ quickly rebounded with bullish gusto, triggering a new bull signal a few weeks later. With that, keep in mind all bear signals are not foretelling the end of the world.

 

You should notice some differences between the current chart and the 2013-2017-Chart. The NASDAQ is currently a strong Red Bull. The Indicant never signals bear with Red Bull status. The Trump rally, starting in November 2016, propelled the stock market along a very aggressive bullish path. The easiest way to get this in perspective is to view the NASDAQ Indicant Volume Indicator chart. Click this sentence to view that chart. There, you should notice the upper right-hand corner on that chart where you will find the words, “Trump Bull.” The lower leg band on that chart is a line moving upward by approximately 71-degrees. That is the second most powerful bull leg since the beginning of the NASDAQ bull leg. Looking to the far left of that chart will show you the most powerful NASDAQ bull leg ever with an angular movement of nearly 79-degrees. Those with a passionate love of bull markets would love a straight up 90-degrees and that has never happened, and it is impossible for that to happen.  Of course, that hefty bullish run from the late 1990’s through early 2000 was followed by an 89% drop in the NASDAQ, lasting from March 2000 until March 2003. Also, keep in mind, it took the NASDAQ over 16-years to return to where is was in March 2000. When including inflation, it is still below where it was in March 2000. Although the chart on this page has not been update in a while, the NASDAQ is well below where it was in March 2000 when adjusting to your purchasing power. In essence, the buyer and holder in March 2000 is still out of the money.

 

Before, leaving the NASDAQ Indicant Volume Indicator chart, take another look at the upper right-hand corner. There you will see the NASDAQ fell to the Trump Bull line two weeks ago. That is a technical point of resistance to bearish desires. Those desiring fulfillments of bullish desires do not want to see the NASDAQ fall below that resistance line. If it falls below the Trump Bull line of resistance, the next battle will be at the 2013-Sequestration Channel Bands, which is just below the Trump Bull line of resistance. Falling below the second line, the potential drop is a deep one, where the Ben Bernanke Bull Cycle offers resistance. If that were to happen in the next month or two, the NASDAQ would drop to around 6200 to the upper Bernanke band. The lower Bernanke band is around 5,000. Falling below that would find no more technical resistance to bearish aggression. That should be expected if the democrats regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives. Their commitment to communism is not an ally to the stock market bull. That, couple to rising interest rates, inflation, trade-wars, and real wars is fundamentally challenging to the stock market bull.

 

Since the strongest bull leg ever was discussed on the NASDAQ Indicant Volume Indicator Chart, it would be good to evaluate that bullish cycle from a Mid-term Indicant perspective. Click this sentence to view the 1997-2001-NASDAQ chart. As you can see, the NASDAQ was a very strong Red Bull and Blue Bull leading into Y2K. You will notice that strength eroded quickly. The NASDAQ peaked in early March 2000. It only took a few weeks to drop below Red, Blue, and Green. Falling below Green is what triggered Bear Signal #05, which lasted only one week with Bull Signal #06. Bear Signal #07 occurred a few months later when the NASDAQ lost Red Bull status and fell below the trip line, which is a horizontal line extending from the prior bull signal. That trip line attempts to prevent losses from new bull signals. Remember, the most dangerous time to own a stock or fund is shortly after buying it. Once you buy, you have laid your cards and money down and rest assured the sharks are after it. However, you can eat sharks when force is higher than pressure with Blue Bull status. The trip line is there in case you are eating the shark for the rear and it swirls around and gnaws at you. The trip line is sort of like catch and release when threatened.

 

Although the Indicant sometimes endures very short bear signals, its strength is in helping avoid those deep and long-lasting bears, which occurred at Bear Signal #7 at 3,672.82. Bull Signal #8 occurred in Oct 2001 at 1,786.96. That is where keeping up with the Indicant pays off, as this helped avoid a 51% loss of capital. Although some bear signals are short-lived, every now and then, those bears are horrendous and life-changing.

 

To complete the NASDAQ Mid-term Indicant perspective, click this sentence to view the 2001-2005-Chart. As you can see, the aforementioned Bull Signal #9 in Oct 2001 was again short lived, as the NASDAQ fell below another trip line and dropping another 38% before Bull Signal #02 was triggered in late 2002 and then later in March 2003, the more fulfilling Bull Signal #04 was triggered. It garnished you 100%+ gain.

 

When viewing the Mid-term Indicant Charts, force vectors falling below vector pressure will certainly correlate with increasing stock market bearishness when the major indices are also below the Blue Curves. However, the Mid-term Indicant ignores that for Red Bulls. That minimizes the number of signals. That is the case right now. The only two element preventing bear signals are Red Bulls and non-Green Bears. However, all major indices are below Blue and all force vectors are below vector pressure. Until you see force vectors reverse direction along the Mid-term Indicant cycle, the stock market bear is alive and well.

 

Do not despair. Simply wait for bear signals. They will be triggered when the threat to your capital is with excessive risks. Keep in mind, when using the NASDAQ benchmark, the Mid-term Indicant is up 50.7% and annualizing at 23.7% since the bull signal on March 4, 2016.

 

The next section highlights the current condition of the stock market.

 

Mid-term Indicant Status of the Major Indices

The major stock market indices can be accessed by clicking this sentence.

 

Click this sentence to review how to understand the below terms.

 

Click this sentence to understand the details on the charts.

 

Mid-term Indicant Red Bulls-Click for Explanation1): 9-Red Bulls, 1-Non-Red Bulls

            Comment: Red Bull unanimity remains absent with the Dow Utilities-(Chart) persisting below the bullish red curve. The major indices, including non-Red Bulls, are now above bullish red by an average of 6.0%. A drop by that amount in the markets, overall, would be required before considering recent bearishness as serious.

 

Mid-term Indicant Blue Bulls-Click for Explanation2): 0-Blue Bulls, 10-Non-Blue Bulls

            Comment: Blue Bulls are the front-line defense against the stock market bear. They are now dead. The major indices are below Blue by an average of 3.9%. The stock market bear now has its site on destroying Red Bulls.

 

Mid-term Indicant Yellow Bears-Click for Explanation3): 0-Yellow Bears, 10-Non-Yellow Bears

                Comment: None of the major indices are threatening on becoming a Yellow Bear. Falling to Yellow Bear status requires an average drop, overall of the ten major indices, of 28.6% from current position. Without Yellow Bears, the stock market bear has difficulty in gaining long-term dominance.

 

Mid-term Indicant Green Bears-Click for Explanation4): 0-Green Bears, 10-Non-Green Bears

                Comment: Overall, the major indices are above Green by only 4.5%. At this point bear signals are not to be considered until the market falls another 6.0%, which is the distance to the bullish red curves. In other words, Green Bears will occur before Red Bulls expire and thus the expiration of Red Bulls will trigger Mid-term Indicant bear signals.

 

Mid-term Indicant Red to Green Position5): Two Reds Higher than Green; Eight Greens Higher Than Red

                Comment: Although this attribute suggests an overheated bull market, and no longer with limited concern. The DJT-(Chart) and the DJU-(Chart) are the only two major indices where Green has not crossed above Red. Green remains below Red, on average for all ten major indices, by 1.3%.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Position6): 1-bullish domains, 9-bearish domains

                Comment: The stock market bull no longer feels secure since a majority of force vectors are now in bearish domains. The majority is now supporting the stock market bear.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Relative to Vector Pressure7): 1-above pressure, 9-below pressure

                Comment: Nine below pressure is a strong ally to the stock market bear.

 

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Position8): 0-bullish domains, 9-bearish domains

                Comment: Pressure is no longer being supported by force vector behavior. All vector pressures are in bearish domains and as long as force continues in a bearish direction, this attribute bodes well for the stock market bear.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Direction9): 1-bullish, 9-bearish

                Comment: From weekending Feb 2, 2018 until weekending Mar 3, 2018, force vector direction favored the stock market bear. A reversal from Mar 10, 2018 through Mar 23, 2018 did not last long in support of the stock market bull. This attribute remains supporting the stock market bear.

 

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Direction10): 1-bullish, 9-bearish

            Comment: This is now supporting the stock market bear along the more stable Mid-term Indicant cycle.

 

Click this sentence to review how to understand the above terms.

Click this sentence to understand how to read the charts.

 

Mid-term Indicant Configured Condition of Major Indices: As stated for several months, the prevailing Red Bull population minimizes the potential for deep and long-lasting stock market bearishness. Most Mid-term Indicant attributes continue configuring with bullish support. Most are now with support for the stock market bear, but weakening a bit this past week.

 

Whipsawed – Review of Wild Swings Last Week

This section highlights last week’s biggest gainers and losers within each group of stocks and funds tracked by the Mid-term Indicant. The groups are the NASDAQ100- Stocks, the Indicant Selected Stocks (mainly energy and former NASDAQ100 stocks, coded ISTK), the Dow Jones 30-Stocks (DJIA), the Dow Utilities (DJU) and Mutual Funds(MF). The below excludes Short-term Indicant tracking of ETF’s and the major indices, which are updated periodically throughout each week.

 

Sears Holding, NAS#83-SHLD-(Chart), was up 15.3% last week as the best performing NASDAQ100 security. However, it is down 93.1% since the Indicant’s Dec 2013 sell signal. Despite last week’s bullishness, continue avoiding this Yellow Bear. Bed Bath and Beyond, NAS#53-BBBY-(Chart), was down 17.7% as the worse performing NASDAQ100 stock last week. It is also down 69.9% since the Indicant’s Oct 2015 sell signal. Continue avoiding this Yellow Bear.

 

Trans Sedco, ISTK#73-RIG-(Chart), was up 19.1% last week as the most bullish stock among this group of stocks. Despite that bullishness and its attractive fundamental appeal, it is down 70.2% and should continue to be avoided. Continue avoiding this Yellow Bear. Infosys, ISTK#89-INFY-(Chart), was down 4.8% last week as the most bearish among this group of stocks. However, it is up 56.6% since the Indicant’s Jul 2013 buy signal. This stock has been flat the past three years, but holding up well for a longer-term investment.

 

Merck & Co, DJIA#27-MRK-(Chart), was up 7.2% last week as the best performing DJIA stock. It is up 4.2% since the Indicant’s Feb 2018 sell signal. Despite last week’s bullishness, this stock is an embryonic Yellow Bear to be avoided. AT&T, DJIA#16-T-(Chart), was down 1.4% last week as the most bearish Dow30 stock. It is also down 2.5% since the Indicant’s Feb 2018 sell signal. Continue avoiding this Yellow Bear. It is unlikely this stock will perform at a higher level than it has the past 18-years.

 

Williams Co, DJU#11-WMB-(Chart), was up 3.2% last week as the Dow Utility’s most bullish stock. However, it is down 12.1% since the Indicant’s Feb 9, 2018 sell signal. Continue avoiding this Yellow Bear. Dominion, DJU#09-D-(Chart), was down 3.4% last week, as the most bearish Dow Utility stock. It is also down 5.0% since the Indicant’s Mar 23, 1018 sell signal. Continue avoiding this embryonic Yellow Bear.

 

Fidelity Energy Services, MF#40-FSESX-(Chart), was up 8.5% last week, as the most bullish mutual fund, and up 9.1% since the Indicant’s Feb 2018 sell signal. This fund is attempting to participate in the petro-rally, but wait for a buy signal. Fidelity Technology, MF#56-FSPTX-(Chart), was down 6.6% last week as the most bearish mutual fund. It is up 44.3% since the Indicant’s Jun 2016 buy signal. This fund is near Red Bull status and continued hold is appropriate.

 

 

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Last Ten Years

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows in this section. It highlights historical performance since 2002. Simply scroll down the webpage to see graphical and detail content of this section. The below describes the same for the past ten years. If a particular year interest you, click this sentence, which will show you all of the prior weekly reports dating back to 2002 along with Indicant performance levels at the time of those reports. From there, you can click the year of interest and then to the specific time-period you are interested in.

 

The Mid-term Indicant generated two buy signals and eight sell signals this weekend. Clicking this sentence will display them on the website.

 

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 239 of the 321-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. Stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 215.6% that annualizes to 43.2%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 239-stocks and funds for an average of 259.6-weeks. There have been 19-buy signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.

 

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 72-stocks and funds of 321-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 14.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 86.2-weeks ago. There have been 49-sell signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.

 

One year ago, on Apr 14, 2017 the Mid-term Indicant was holding 261-stocks and funds of the 302-tracked for an average of 203.3-weeks. They were up by an average of 168.1% (annualized at 43.0%). There were 40-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down by an average of 22.2% since their respective sell signals an average of 101.1-weeks earlier, one year ago. There were no buy signals and one sell signal on this weekend in 2017. There had been 19-buy signals and seven sell signals for the year through this weekend in 2017.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 211-stocks on Apr 15, 2016. They were up 155.9% since their buy signals an average of 210.7-weeks earlier. There were 125-avoided stocks on this weekend since their sell signals an average of 66.3-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and one sell signal on this weekend in 2016. There had been 26-buy signals and 60-sell signals through this weekend in 2016. Polls favored Hillary Clinton throughout most of this year’s election cycle. That confronted the stock market bull and encouraged the stock market bear. Presidential candidate, Hillary Clinton, once said she would take corporate profits and do something better with the money was not only laughable, but seriously confronted the stock market bull.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 290-stocks and funds of the 338-tracked on Apr 17, 2015. They were up by an average of 147.0%, annualizing at 38.9%, since their respective buy signals an average of 196.4-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 45-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 14.6% since their respective sell signals an average of 71.5-weeks earlier. There were three buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2015. There were 15-year-to-date buy signals and 22-sell signals at this time of year in 2015. This presidential pre-election year was somewhat uneventful and tame, following unusually strong post-election year bullishness in 2013 and a flat 2014-mid-term presidential election year.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 313-stocks and funds of the 338-tracked on Apr 11, 2014. They were up by an average of 104.4%, annualizing at 35.4%, since their respective buy signals an average of 153.3-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 20-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 25.9% since their respective sell signals an average of 69.4-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and five sell signals on this weekend in 2015. There had been a total of ten buy signals and 15-sell signals through this weekend in 2014.

 

There were 299-stocks and funds with hold signals of the 338-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant on Apr 12, 2013 since their buy signals an average of 117.8-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 83.1% (annualized at 36.7%). There were 36-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 26.4% from their respective sell signals an average of 64.2-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and two sell signals on this weekend in 2013. There had been 38-buy signals and 18-sell signals through this weekend in 2013. This was an impressively bullish year, as sequestration inspired the stock market bull along an accelerated growth plane. Although sequestered spending was minimal, the underlying principles of handcuffing the irrationality of politicians inspired the stock market bull.

 

On Apr 13, 2012, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 288-stocks and funds out of 335-tracked. They were up by an average of 67.7% (annualized at 41.8%) since their buy signals an average of 84.4-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 43-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 27.3% since their sell signals an average of 50.7-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and four sell signals on this weekend in 2012. There had been 73-buy signals and 25-sell signals through this weekend in 2012.

 

On Apr 15, 2011, there were 298-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 336-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 60.1%, annualizing at 44.6% since their respective buy signals an average of 60.1-weeks earlier. There were 32-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 49.4% since their respective sell signals an average of 111.4-weeks earlier. There were four buy signals and one sell signal on this weekend in 2011. There had been 17-buy signals and 8-sell signals through this weekend in 2011.

           

 

On Apr 16, 2010, there were 227-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 316-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 35.0% annualizing at 43.9%, since their respective buy signals an average of 41.5-weeks earlier. There were 89-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 35.0% since their sell signals an average of 83.0-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2010, totaling 33-buy signals and 17-sell signals through this weekend in 2010. The stock market shifted to strong bullishness in August 2010 at the obviation of democrats losing the House of Representatives. This is an example of the stock market’s ability to “anticipate,” as opposed to being reactionary to the “news.”

 

There were 21-stocks and funds with hold signals on Apr 17, 2009. The Mid-term Indicant was tracking 344-stocks and funds at that time. Those with hold signals were up by an average of 117.4%, annualizing at 64.3%, since their buy signals an average of 95.0-weeks earlier. The 323-avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 31.7% since their respective sell signals an average of 45.6-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2009. There had been nine buy signals and 20-sell signals through this weekend in 2009.

 

On Apr 11, 2008, there were 203-stocks and funds with hold signals, enjoying an average gain of 130.7% since their respective buy signals an average of 121.0-weeks earlier. That annualized at 56.2%. There were 345-stocks and funds tracked at that time. There were 137-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 20.3% since their sell signals an average of 26.3-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and four sell signals on this weekend in 2008. There had been 78-year-to-date buy signals and 116-YTD sell signals through this weekend in 2008. This was the year of the great stock market crash, as phony political leadership do what they do. And then their little, but selfish, three-pound brains, blame the crash on big business and capitalism, despite them being 100% responsible for the fiasco. The stock market bear was accelerating its dominance in early 2008 with a few false bounces from phony governmental interventions and the profound stupidity from their “too big to fail” paradigm. Delaying the inevitable only worsens its magnitude at the “real” conclusion of stupidity’s chaos.

           

The above performance reflects status at the time of the updates. Abandoned securities have no impact to the above performance statistics and the historical report card. They always represent status at the time of that status and never changes. When securities become NLT (no longer traded), their performance levels are excluded from the report card at the time they become NLT. There are no retroactive adjustments. The number of stocks and funds tracked from week to week may differ because they are no longer traded or listed on major stock exchanges.     

 

The Indicant started retaining records of abandoned stocks and funds in 2012. There are advantages of retaining records by expressing the consequences of an organization employing dilettante management and related corporate leeching. All organizations eventually expire. The primary causes of such expirations are corporate leeching, stupidity, and arrogance (without cause). {Note: the same is true of governments that fall prey to either economic leeching (FDR) and/or excessive egomaniacal behavior by its leaders (Hitler)}. Click here to see abandoned securities.

 

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals

Buying and selling have been limited for the past few years, as the bull’s perseverance has prevented a bear market for quite some time. That reduces the number of stocks in temporary decline to earn new buy signals since they are enjoying hold signals. Although Mid-term attributes are not strongly bullish, the stock market bear has been unable to gain traction with only minor pestering the past nine years. It is very possible for that to continue for seven to nine more years but being challenged by very strong bear friendly political fundamentals. The fundamental threat of trade wars confronts a relaxed posture toward the stock market bull. Equally confronting basic economics is the political elite’s desire to shift representative government to a politburo form of government.

 

Clicking this sentence will take you to this weekend’s Mid-term Indicant buy/sell signals.

   

The Short-term Indicant signals buy and sell for ETF’s, daily, provided the ETF’s enjoy a buy signal or endure a sell signal. They are not included in the Mid-term Indicant summaries. These short-term models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts, while the Mid-term Indicant includes fundamentals and longer-term technical data to reject short-term trader nervousness. The Daily Stock Market Report reports status for the short-term model.

 

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 234.5% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 537.9% and the S&P500 is up 242.0% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 458.1% since October 9, 2002.

 

The NASDAQ was bearish by 20.6% through this weekend in 2001’s presidential post-election year. It finished 2001 down by 21.1%, which was congruent with the standards of post-election-year-bearishness. As many of you recall, the markets succumbed to the stock market bear during the most part of 2001.

 

The NASDAQ was down 10.8% through this weekend in 2002’s mid-term election-year. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The NASDAQ stock market bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with historical standards of finding bottoms during mid-term election years. It fell over 80% from its all-time high on March 9, 2000 by late 2002.

 

The NASDAQ was up 1.7% on this weekend in 2003’s presidential pre-election year. It finished 2003 up by 50.0%, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results, despite the start of the Iraq war in March of that year. It was up on this weekend in 2004 by 2.5% in the meandering bear market of 2004 that dampened bullish enthusiasm, but the NASDAQ finished 2004’s presidential pre-election year up by 8.6%. This was congruent with presidential election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards.

 

It was down 9.2% on this weekend in 2005’s post-election year, which was consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains during post-election years. It finished up by 1.4% in 2005. This was an excellent year, based on post-election year historical standards of bearishness. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets. Some of you recall a new bullish cycle originated in August 2005 that carried through until mid-2007. The stock market enjoyed that nice bullish ride, following the meandering bear market of 2004 through Aug 2005.

           

In 2006, the NASDAQ was up 7.1% on this weekend. It finished up in 2006 by 9.5%, which maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year.

 

The NASDAQ was up 2.3% through this weekend in 2007, finishing that year up by 9.8%. The stock market peaked in 2007 from the 2003-bull leg after democrats took control of Congress in early 2007. George W. went along with them as opposed to repelling them. That inspired the stock market bear and added depth to its decline. Of course, the housing bubble contributed. Politicians originated it, like many adverse economic conditions.

 

The NASDAQ was down by 11.9% on this weekend in 2008. It finished 2008 down by 40.5%. That was extreme contrarian performance to the standards of historical election year bullishness. The overall stock market endured the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832. The history from 1832 used other indices until the DJIA’s inception in 1896.

                       

It was up 4.8% on this weekend in 2009, while finishing that year up by 43.9%. Keep in mind, the extraordinary bullish cycle in 2009 finished that year down by 20.6 % from its prior weekly cyclical peak on October 31, 2007. The 2008 bear market more accurately reflected economic fundamentals than the 2009 bull market. Much of the 2009 bull market correlated well with declining political popularity.

 

The NASDAQ was up 8.7% on this weekend in 2010. It finished that year up by 16.9%, which was consistent with mid-term election year bullishness; especially in the second half of such years. The stock market was explosively bullish through the mid-term election year when it was obvious the Republicans would regain control of the House and possibly the Senate.

 

It was up 4.1% on this weekend in 2011. Unfortunately, the NASDAQ finished 2011 down by 7.3%. Some prior reports errantly stated the NASDAQ finished up in 2011. The S&P500 finished flat in 2011 while the DJIA finished up by 5.5% that year. This was an unusual conclusion for a presidential pre-election year. The enhancement of socialism and the threat of communism confused the stock market.

           

The NASDAQ was up 17.3% on this weekend in 2012, finishing that year up by 15.9%, which was classically bullish for the presidential election year. One reason for its bearish tail in the second half of that year was the re-election of the incumbent president. Four more years of incumbency invites exponential increases in corruption with expanded economic turmoil.  

 

It was up 9.3% on this weekend in 2013, finishing that normally bearish presidential post-election year up by a whopping 38.3%. Extraordinary stock market bullishness in 2013 correlated well with sequestration. The Dow and S&P500 closed out 2013 up by 26.5% and 29.6%, respectively, and diabolically opposed to a long history of presidential post-election year bearishness. Politically contributing elements were 1) sequestration and 2) continuing democratic losses at the city, county, state, and federal levels. Fortunately, communistic orations by the democratic party were repulsed by an increasingly number of smarter voters after their profound stupidity in the 2006-mid-term elections, allowing the democrats a majority in both the house and senate.  

           

The NASDAQ was down 4.2% in 2014, finishing that year up 13.4% even though starting out the year very slowly and enduring some significant near-term bearish cycles throughout 2014. The presidential use of executive orders countered normal stock market bullishness that usually accompanies political partisanship. The executive branch may undo the political cycle model if constitutional breeches accelerate. Obama’s successor could use an executive order to arrest Obama, Holder, and others for breaking the law and violation their oaths. Of course, aggravating constitutional authority will eventually erode the designed intention of the founding fathers. Human kind will regret it, but will be too stupid to recognize their culpability in their economic decline.

.                                                                                                                                                                     8

The NASDAQ was up 5.0% on this weekend in 2015. It finished 2015 up by 5.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 2.2% for the first bearish conclusion in a presidential pre-election year since 1939.

 

The NASDAQ was down 2.7% in on this weekend in 2016 with polls suggesting Hillary Clinton as the obvious president elect. It finished 2016 up by 7.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 13.4% due, primarily, to a late year bullish explosion on the defeat of Hillary Clinton for the presidency and continued erosion of the democratic party.

 

The NASDAQ was up 7.8% on this weekend in 2017, finishing that presidential post-election year up by 28.2% with Donald Trump’s first year as president. Deregulating and undoing prior political damage to the economy is causation to that profound bullishness.

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 1.5% this year. The S&P500 is down 0.6% for the year and the NASDAQ is up 2.9% this year. The S&P600 is up 1.8% this year.  The Dow Transports is down 2.3% this year, while the most bearish, Dow Utilities, is down 4.4% this year.

 

The Dow is up 72.0% since its prior weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is up 148.6% since its last cyclical peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P500 is          up 69.7% since its Oct 9, 2007 peak. The 2007 peaks coincide with political coziness in Washington D.C., which solidified in early 2007, as George W. Bush’s liberal tendencies melded well with the newly elected socialistic leaning congress with a similar fiscal liberalism and the dangerous practice of fascism.

 

All major indices are holding above their 2007-peaks. The Dow Utilities was the last of the major indices to return to 2007-peak levels. It took about seven years to do so but fell back below its 2007-peak in early Jan 2016. It is again above its Jul 19, 2007-peak by 23.5%.

 

The NASDAQ is above its 2000-peak by 40.8%. The NASDAQ100 finally crossed above its March 2000 all-time high on Nov 6, 2015, fell below shortly thereafter, and then crossed back above that peak on Jul 29, 2016. It also fell below that peak weekending Sep 9, 2016 and again crossing back above its March 24, 2000 peak on weekending Sep 16, 2016. It is again above that peak by 40.9%. The S&P100 finally toppled its Mar 23, 2000 peak on May 2, 2013. It is now above that peak by 40.2%.

 

Although exact simultaneous bottoming did not occur on March 9, 2009, tracking from that pivot-point has been and will continue to be appropriate. This inexactness lends credence to the reverse tangential projections with a short-term view and increasingly so. Consequently, March 9, 2009 is the pivot date to monitor performance since the March 2009 bottoming from the 2007-2008 bear cycle. When prices fall below reverse tangential projections, new pivot points will be defined.

 

The Dow is up 272.1% since March 9, 2009, which is the “bottoming” pivot date from the great bear market of 2007/8. The NASDAQ is up 460.1% and the S&P500 is up 292.6% since then. The S&P600, Small Cap Index, is up 424.1% since March 9, 2009. That March 2009-current bull leg was indeed powerful, but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth. The Federal Reserve may be held in check by fearing Trump tweets and not accelerate rate increases during his first term. So far, the Fed remains passive, but recent rate hikes offer some arguments against being passive.           

 

The stock market bull is usually aroused and significantly so when congress and the president are at odds. This leads to a “do-nothing” government, which is usually bullish. The only positive economic contribution politicians can do is undoing their prior damage and the damage caused by their predecessors. The bullishness that occurs during do-nothing periods is due to the absence of additional economic damage by politicians. It will be interesting if a republican administration with a republican congress can upset 180-years of being bearish when those two bodies agree. So far, they are in disagreement and more or less disallowing an undoing of prior political damage. That dispute may indeed prevent resumption of more political damage. Also, Trump is having some success in deregulation, which is always bullish.

 

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

 

Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for several years, do not fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it does change. The markets, both free and controlled, are not constant. A massive bear market, depending on the magnitude of combined interest rates and inflation, will eventually occur. The more politicians attempt to generate the markets as a constant, the less constant they become. The combined absolute value of interest rates, inflation/deflation remain less than 8.0% and thus no related threat of depressed economic behavior now. That is a temporary condition.

 

The reported CPI remains relatively healthy, while the PPI is no longer mildly threatening. Always keep in mind, publicly generated information can be biased for political purposes, as opposed to simply publishing accurate information. The manifestation of “making America great again” can be inflationary. However, a simplified tax code could be offsetting to that threat. Tariffs and trade wars add to the inflationary threat, plus additional social threats.

 

The Prime Rate, Discount Rate, and Effective Rate increased 25-basis points on week-ending Mar 23, 2018, following similar increases on week-endings Dec 23, 2016, Mar 17, 2017, Jun 15, 2017, and Dec 15, 2017. You should notice the spike in the 3-month T-Bill shortly after Trump’s election. The 2020-mean forecast continues escaping from its prior near zero projections.  Rates remain at low levels and thus not yet impeding economic growth. They are becoming more aggressive, however, and possibly too slow and low to fend off inflation.

 

The Federal Reserve’s Quarter 2, 2017 promise of being passive on rate hikes is now being challenged with noticeable increases in interest rates. The 3-Month T-Bill remains low and non-threatening to the stock market bull, despite recent rate hike aggression. There is a future point where its rise will punish the stock market bull. Strong stock market bearishness on week ending March 23, 2018 suggests the future may now be here. If the Fed slows future rate hikes and OPEC has their way with increasing oil prices, inflationary pressures will also be unfriendly to the stock market bull.

 

The Euro remains with Red Bull status, arguing with its ten-year bearish trend. That bearish trend started shifting bullishly for the first time in about nine years in early March 2018. The U.S. dollar is declining in value even against this weak currency. The 2020-mean forecast is at $1.185 with more aggressive intrinsic modeling, projecting $0.40. The Canadian dollar fell below the zone of neutrality on weekending Jul 15, 2017 with its strengthening. It returned to the neutral zone in late October 2017 and now approaching the weakening zone as it nears the red curve. Its 2020-mean forecast is $1.305CA with projected polynomials forecasting much weaker values exceeding $2.15CA to $1.92CA.

           

The Japanese Yen statistical mean forecast is at 111-yen/dollar by 2020 while the aggressive polynomials are projecting a range of 171-158-Yen/U.S. dollar. It shifted from the zone of neutrality to strengthening in late Feb 2018 and continues residence there with some recent steadying. It strengthens when falling below Yellow. The British Pound returned to Yellow Bear status in mid-June 2016 with the BREXIT vote. However, it moved above Yellow on week-ending May 5, 2017 and crossed into Red Bull Status on Sep 14, 2017, as the U.S. Dollar continued weakening even against this weak currency. It continues enjoying solid Red Bull status, while stuck in a tight trading range. Its 2020 statistical mean forecast is at $1.32 with more aggressive polynomials, projecting around $0.82-$0.83 by Dec 31, 2020.

 

The Bitcoin toppled $16,000 on most exchanges in late 2017 in skyrocketing fashion. It has weakened since then. It lost Red Bull status in late Mar/early Apr 2018. Even though it has declined it remains in the zone of neutrality, while bouncing up to over $8,000 last week.       

                       

Gold regained Red Bull status on Jan 16, 2018. Prevailing interest rates remain low, despite their recent hike, and the corresponding weak dollar is encouraging bullish potential for gold. The 2020-mean forecast is $1,293/oz. while the more aggressive polynomials are projecting a 2020 value approximating $695-709/oz. You can keep up with an approximation of this on the Indicant Daily Stock Market Report by tracking ETF#11-GLD.

 

Oil returned to Red Bull status on Oct 5, 2017 and continuing bullishly since then. Its rise is congruent with inflationary themes going forward. The 2020-intrinsic and aggressive polynomial forecast ranges from $0 to $0. That is correct, but like all forecast, it is erroneous. The 2020-statistical mean forecast is at $52/bbl. This mean forecast is now no longer declining for the first time in over five years as of early 2018.

 

The CRB Bridge Futures regained Red Bull status on Nov 23, 2017 after succumbing to the Yellow Bear on weekending Jun 10, 2017. It is again displaying inflationary aggression, holding onto its Red Bull status since mid-February 2018. The 2020 mean forecast is at $189, while the more aggressive polynomials are forecasting zero by 2020.

 

Mortgage rates abandoned Yellow Bear status on Nov 3, 20 16 with a sharp rise to the enjoyment of Red Bull status for lenders and not for those desiring home ownerships. On Nov 25, 2016, it lost that Red Bull status. Mortgage rates regained Red Bull status in early March 2018 with momentum in their bullish configurations and more or less skyrocketing. If you have not renewed your mortgage or bought that property you desire, hurry up and this is going to get worse before it gets better. However, it was a bit bearish the past few weeks, but do not expect that to persist. Mortgage rates should resume their bullish cycle shortly.

 

The consumer price index and producer price index are computing without the combined absolute value of threatening interest rates and inflation or deflation of 8%. Considerations of deflationary threats are not out of line, though. Fortunately, there are millions around the world willing to work and be consumptive. With that, the strong may offset the weak.         

 

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant again signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010, but had to signal sell on Dec 16, 2011 for a disappointing loss of around 15%. It endured another disappointing loss of 9.7% between the Jan 27, 2012 buy signal and the Mar 16, 2012 sell signal. It again endured a sell signal on Feb 8, 2013, as it fell below its short-term green curve. It was down 30.9% since that Feb 2013 sell signal, when it enjoyed a buy signal on May 6, 2016. It endured a sell signal on Nov 25, 2016, after moving up 10% from that sell signal. That triggered a buy signal on Jan 13, 2017. It is down 4.0% since then.

 

Fidelity Gold Fund #28 also enjoyed a buy signal on Jan 13, 2017. It is down 5.1% since then. The above Vanguard fund usually outperforms this one.

 

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, enjoyed a buy signal on Oct 13, 2017 and up 5.3% since then, annualizing at 10.5%.

 

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, endured a sell signal on Feb 9, 2018. It is up 9.1% since then.

 

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, enjoyed a buy signal on Apr 13, 2018.

 

Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, enjoyed a buy signal on Dec 29, 2017 and up 0.4% since then, annualizing at 1.5%.

 

The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Apr 9, 2018. It is up 5.5% since then.

           

The Near-term and Quick-term Indicant again signaled buy for GLD-ETF#11-Gold on Dec 22, 2017. It is up 5.4% since then, annualizing at 17.4%.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.    

 

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling bull for nine of the 10-major indices. Bullish unanimity remains absent. The existing bulls are up by an average of 40.9% since their bull signals an average of 107.3-weeks ago, annualizing at 19.8%. There is one Mid-term Indicant bear. It is down 2.6% since its bear signal 14.0-weeks ago.

 

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $66.853-million. That beats buy and hold performance of $3.652-million on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $3.322-million. That beats buy and hold’s $1.565-million on a Jan 6, 1950 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $2.006-million. That beats buy and hold’s $710,665 on a Jan 29, 1971 $10,000 investment.  The MTI-Dow Transports is at $35.995-million. That is better than buy and hold $742,728 since a $10,000 investment on Oct 19, 1928. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1,730.8%, 112.4%, 182.3%, and 4,748.3%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

 

There are two reasons why the Dow Transports is included in the above summary. It is used by the Dow Theory Forecast, which has merit, albeit slowly. The second reason is the statistical friendliness and its near-perfect sinusoidal waves. It tends to stay committed to its underlying cycle of bullishness or bearishness more than other indices.

 

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals. The Indicant’s advantage only occurs during bear signals.

 

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks  

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history. Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

 

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 98.6% since then. Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy and hold during 2009, 2013, and 2017, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation, for the most part, in those three presidential post-election years. Polls and recent elections are highlighting left leaning political movements. Although their accuracy is indeed questionable, a return to politburo wannabes in congress will offer this fund and others like it, profound growth opportunities at some future point, but not right now.

 

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

 

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

 

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

 

The Dow is up 741.5% (annualized at 27.9%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,380-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

 

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

 

The next section is the last daily stock market report for this past week

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Archives

{Repeated here are from the last trading day’s daily stock market report from the previous week. Click this link to see all the daily reports from the last 12-months. Retaining here in the weekly report allows for longer retention periods of the daily stock market reports that describe the short-term cycle at the end of each week}.

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Summary

Fri-Apr 13-Again, stock market bearishness attacked prior day’s stock market bull, continuing to emulate banana republic behavior.

 

Thu-Apr 12-No report on strong stock market bullishness, wiping out prior day’s stock market bearishness. The stock market is behaving much like a banana republic one.

 

Wed-Apr 11-No report on illogical stock market bearishness, depleting much of day’s stock market bullishness.

 

Tue-Apr 10-Despite strong stock market bullishness today, based on Chinese political orations, most short-term attributes remain supportive of the stock market bear at this time.

 

Mon-Apr 9-The Chinese are gaming stock markets around the world. This is a theory and not a provable fact. They are softening their blows to trade tariffs and the stock market will respond bullishly to that. The Chinese now know their orations can move markets. With that, expect more such orations and related stock market volatility. Such bullishness will be ignored due to politicians lying. Vector pressure remains in bearish domains. Until it moves into bullish domains, bear/avoid signals will remain in affect.

 

Please review the below sections for more insight.

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

 

Index Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

Number of Near-term Bulls: 1 of 12

Duration of Near-term Bulls: 10.6-wks-avg.

Near-term Bull Performance: 25.8%; Annualized Performance: 126.9%

 

Number of Near-term Bears: 11 of 12

Average Duration of Near-term Bears: 6.9-wks. avg.

Near-term Bears Average Performance: 0.0%

Configured Advantage: Near-term Stock Market Bear, effective Mar 29, 2018.

           

Near-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses  

Near-term Indicant Configured Bullish Blue Bulls: 6 of 12

Near-term Indicant Configured Bearish Green Bears: 1 of 12

Position Advantage: Near-term Stock Market Bear, effective Apr 6, 2018.

 

Index Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

                                               

Number of Quick-term Bulls: 11 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term Bulls: 96.6-wks.

Quick-term Bull Performance: 38.0%; Quick-term Annualized Performance: 20.5%

 

Number of Quick-term Bears: 1 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term: Bears: 14.1-weeks-avg.   

Quick-term Bear Performance: -2.5%

 

Quick-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 0 of 12 

Configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 1 of 12

Configured Advantage: Quick-term Stock Market Bull effective Nov 7, 2016

                       

Short-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Non-contrarian force vectors in bullish domains: 9 of 11

Non-contrarian force vectors higher than vector pressure: 10 of 11

Non-contrarian vector pressure in bullish domains: 2 of 11 

Non-contrarian force vectors with bullish direction: 10 of 11                                              

Non-contrarian vector pressure with bullish direction: 10 of 11

Advantage: Short-term Stock Market Bear, effective Mar 26, 2018, based primarily on vector pressure residence in bearish domains. Vector pressure is the dominant attribute with prevailing stock market configurations.

 

Indicant Volume Indicators

Fri-Apr 13-A bit more volume on stock market bearishness offers bearish enthusiasm, but note quite as much as last Tuesday’s bullish enthusiasm.

 

Thu-Apr 12-Lower volume on stock market bullishness suggests an absence of bullish enthusiasm.

 

Wed-Apr 11-Lower volume on stock market bearishness suggests an absence of bearish enthusiasm.

 

Tue-Apr 10-Volume was up a bit on strong bullish stock market behavior, offering narrow inspiration to the stock market bull. However, volume was low enough for you to not be inspired.

 

Mon-Apr 9-Below recent average volume on mild stock market bullishness offers no evidence of directional intensity.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

ETF Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for five ETF’s. Those enjoying hold signals are up by an average of 5.2% since their buy signals an average of 4.9-weeks ago, annualizing at 55.1%.

 

The NTI is avoiding 27-ETFs. They are down by an average of 1.3% since their sell signals 2.0-weeks ago.

 

Near-term ETF Cycle Analyses

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 1

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 0

 

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 1

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 0

 

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 19

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 1

 

Advantage: Near-term stock market bull, as of Apr 10, 2018

         

ETF Quick-term Report Card Summary    

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

                       

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 23-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 35.9% since their buy signals an average of 76.5-weeks ago. That annualizes at 24.4%.                                                                                                                                        

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding nine ETFs. They are down by an average of 6.0% since their sell signals an average of 16.3-weeks ago.                                                          

         

Quick-term ETF Cycle Analyses         

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 0

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 0

 

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 2

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 0

 

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 14

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 1    

 

Advantage: Quick-term stock market bull, effective Nov 7, 2016.

 

Reverse Tangential Projections

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections.

           

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

Other links:     

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the S&P500 Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Understanding Content on the Short-term Indicant Charts

 

Indicant Conclusion

As stated last week, “force vectors (continue moving) in a bearish direction, with the major indices in short-term neutrality (between blue and green curves on the Mid-term Indicant cycles). Blue bulls have been defeated and no longer offering a front-line defense against the stock market bear. Since green is above Red, the next bear signals will be triggered with prices falling below the Red Bull curve.”

 

Nine of the ten major indices were bullish last week, but not one Mid-term Indicant attribute shifted out of their bearish configurations.

 

Also, as stated last week, “the political spectrum is getting very close to fulfilling the ideas and beliefs of Nikita Khrushchev, who was the U.S.S.R. boss in the 1950’s and 1960’s. Remember, the politburo does not like sharing the caviar. They only want you to harvest it for their fine dining. You are not welcome to set at the table with them.”

           

Click this sentence to keep up with the Short-term Indicant.

 

Click this sentence to maintain stock market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.

 

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.

 

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

 

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

 

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc., click the following hyperlink:

 

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm 

 

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

 

Stop Loss Management

This was moved to the bottom of this report as its content rarely changes. You will be notified when stop losses should be tightened or loosened.

 

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized capital gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the greater value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences.

 

For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

 

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying. Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

 

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

 

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

 

Happy Investing,

 

www.indicant.net

04/15/2018

 

 

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