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June 19, 2022, Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 06, Issue 02 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

  

Absolutely Nothing Is Fundamentally Bullish and the Dow Utilities Finally Succumbed to the Stock Market Bear

Lunacy is never rewarded. A society tolerating lunacy will not find their rights to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. Human IQ continues to decline since developments in social media, the internet, and a handful of geeks and news media attempting to guide human thinking. Unfortunately, those few individuals will find success as history clearly demonstrates more millennial of misery than happiness.

 

History also advises there are periods of rebellion where the so-called elite are eliminated. Product innovation the past five hundred years has contributed to the increased quality of life for those living under the guidance of magna carta and the U.S. Constitution. Prior to those two documents, the primary products of innovation were within the instruments of war, where the masses would gladly join some lunatics army and die on the battlefield. In essence, there are no elites. All humans are the same, but some have a penchant to have the masses follow their lunatic chit chat.

 

For the first time since 2009, nearly all of the economic elements are marked bearish on this webpage that you can find by clicking this sentence. Since 1896, the stock market bull hibernates like a stock market bear when the combined absolute value of deflation/inflation and interest rates exceed 8%. Inflation alone is greater than 8% and Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, and the political lunatics in power are 100% responsible. It is easily provable, but the masses brain power is too deficient to think accurately. Inaccurate economic thinking by the majority of any culture offers self-imposed misery. Non fact-based opinions conjured up by mystics always lead to misery. The good news is that mystics are not immune to that misery. Economic implosion does not discriminate. It hacks away on all with the same randomness of an exploding bomb.

 

Bearish unanimity persists along the near-term and mid-term cycles. The Mid-term Indicant is signaling bear for all ten major indices. The lone protector against the stock market bear, the Dow Utilities-( Chart) fell by a whopping 9.5% last week. It fell below Blue, Red, and Green in doing so, stimulating its new bear signal. The other nine major indices were already bears since April 22, 2022 with the exception of some on April 29, 2002 and the Dow Transports last bear signal on May 13, 2022. For the first time since Ben Bernanke’s 2009 stock market bull, the Indicant is now is now more than 50% out of the market.

 

When in doubt, sell. This market is headed to Yellow Bear status. That is an additional 7.8% stock market drop, which is not unfathomable since the ten major indices fell by an average of 5.9% last week. The only good news about the stock market is that some force vectors are starting to shift upward, offering the potential of a bullish bounce along the near-term horizon. If you see stock market bullishness the next few days, consider it as a bullish spurt. The Federal Reserve is no longer being passive. Last week’s rate hikes were massive. They are only getting started and they are only addressing the symptoms. The root cause of inflation is the current administration. The Fed has two more years to deal with that. The 1970’s is now underway. Click the next few sentences to get a feel for what is about to occur. The S&P500 fell by over 30% from 1969 through early 1970.  There was a nice rebound following that initial bear, but the next one was worse. The S&P500 fell by over 50% from 1973 through most of 1974.  

 

 

Mid-term Indicant Status of the Major Indices

The major stock market indices can be accessed by clicking this sentence.

Click this sentence to review how to understand the below terms.

 

Click this sentence to understand the details on the charts.

 

Mid-term Indicant Red Bulls-Click for Explanation1): 0-Red Bull, 10-Non-Red Bulls

Comment: The lone Red Bull, DJU-(Chart), expired this past week All ten major indices are below Red by an average of 15.6%.  The stock market must climb above Red to gain the desired protection against the stock market bear. That is not going to happen with the current administration in power.

 

Mid-term Indicant Blue Bulls-Click for Explanation2): 0-Blue Bulls, 10-Non-Blue Bulls

            Comment: The ten major indices are below Blue by 10.6%. There is no protection against the stock market bear here as well.

 

Mid-term Indicant Yellow Bears-Click for Explanation3): 0-Yellow Bears, 10-Non-Yellow Bears

              Comment: All major indices are above Yellow by an average of 7.8%. The absence of Yellow Bears strongly suggest economic depression is not possible now. With only a 7.8% drop remaining to Yellow Bear status, expect economic recession on the immediate horizon.  Also, keep in mind, severe stock market bears can drop 50.0% in a matter of weeks, while a stock market bull’s 50% increase is much slower. Keep in mind a 50% drop requires a 100% increase to displace the 50% drop.

 

Mid-term Indicant Green Bears-Click for Explanation4): 10-Green Bears, --Non-Green Bears

              Comment: The ten Green Bears are below green by 10.2%. That is very bearish.

 

Mid-term Indicant Red to Green Position5): 10-Red Higher than Green; 0-Green Higher Than Red

              Comment: The mix here is irrelevant at this point with all red curves above green curves. The over-heating indicator expired and awaiting a new cycle of overheating. That will be quite some time from now. Most likely several years from now. Much depends on elections and removal of the nonsensicality of the newly found movement of the political elite as the masters of delineating disinformation from fact. On the contrary they are the masters of disinformation. It is amazing how evil introduces itself as some sort of master of this and that, while they are simply pontificators who has normal disdain from contrarian pontificators. Neither group is good. The only good from humanity’s contribution are from within the three meaningful groups of economic sectors. That is manufacturing, extraction, and agriculture. All else is just noise that is no different from the static you hear when your radio is near power lines.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Position6): 0-bullish domains, 10-bearish domains

              Comment:  This supports the stock market bear.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Relative to Vector Pressure7): 3-above pressure, 7-below pressure

              Comment: The recent bullish spurt propelled force higher than pressure, offering the stock market bull a small glimmer of hope.

           

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Position8): 0-bullish domains, 10-bearish domains

              Comment: This remains supportive of the stock market bear.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Direction9): 3-bullishly directed, 7-bearishly directed

              Comment: This attribute offers a glimmer of hope for the stock market bull, but still bearish.

 

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Direction10): 6-bullishly directed, 4-bearishly directed

            Comment: This remains supportive of the stock market bear as the bull strongly prefers all ten be bullish directed while residing in bearish domains.

 

Click this sentence to review how to understand the above terms.

Click this sentence to understand how to read the charts.

 

Mid-term Indicant Configured Condition of Major Indices: Configurations remain supportive for the stock market bear.

 

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Last Five Years

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows in this section. It highlights historical performance since 2002. Simply scroll down the webpage to see graphical and detail content of this section. The below describes the same for the past five years. If a particular year interest you, click this sentence, which will show you all of the prior weekly reports dating back to 2002 along with Indicant performance levels at the time of those reports. From there, you can click the year of interest and then to the specific time-period you are interested in. Please note that after the Weekly Stock Market Report, dated Aug 12, 2018, ten years of history was replaced with five years of history. Again, historical weekly reports, dating to 2002 remain available on the website. As 2008’s great bear market fades beyond the 10th anniversary, just as the NASDAQ’s 2002 drop of 89% was also no longer reported in 2012, it is no longer necessary to report 2008 here. These historical references, however, do remain on the website. The website has stock market history dating back to 1900.

 

The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signals and 26-sell signals this weekend. Clicking this sentence is where the Mid-term Indicant buy and sell signals are displayed.  

 

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 139 of the 315-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. Stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 335.9% that annualizes to 73.1%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 139-stocks and funds for an average of 238.9-weeks. There have been 16      -buy signals for stocks and funds so far, this year. Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant, hold signals are 44.1% in the market.

 

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 150-stocks and funds of 315-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 24.7% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 83.0-weeks ago. There have been 130-sell signals for stocks and funds so far, this year. Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant, avoid signals are 55.9% out of the market.

 

One year ago, on Jun 18, 2021, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 284-stocks and funds of the 316-tracked for an average of 137.8-weeks. They were up by an average of 274.7%, annualizing at 103.6%. There were 30-avoided stocks and funds at this time last year. They were down by an average of 39.9% since their sell signals an average of 192.5-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and one sell signal at this time of year in 2021.  There had been 46-buy signals and 14-sell signals throughout the year on this weekend in 2021. Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant, holds were 90.2% in the market and avoids were 9.8% out of the market.

 

Two years ago, on Jun 19, 2020, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 222-stocks and funds of the 316-tracked for an average of 112.7-weeks. They were up by an average of 236.0%, annualizing at 90.0%. There were 90-avoided stocks and funds at this time last year. They were down by an average of 31.8% since their sell signals an average of 112.7-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and four sell signals at this time of year in 2020.  There had been 166-buy signals and 201-sell signals through this weekend in Covid’s 2020. Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant, holds were 70.5% in the market and avoids were 29.7% out of the market.

 

Three years ago, on Jun 21, 2019, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 210-stocks and funds of the 321-tracked for an average of 268.1-weeks. They were up by an average of 241.6% (annualized at 46.9%). There were 109-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down by an average of 20.0% since their respective sell signals an average of 76.9-weeks earlier. There were two buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2019. There had been 84-buy signals and 48-sell signals for the year through this weekend in 2019. Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant, holds were 66.0% in the market and avoids were 34.0% out of the market.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 241 stocks and funds on Jun 15, 2018. They were up 235.8% since their buy signals an average of 258.0-weeks earlier, annualizing at 47.4%. There were 72-avoided stocks and funds on this weekend since their sell signals an average of 86.6-weeks earlier. There were three buy signals and four sell signals on this weekend in 2018. There had been 36-buy signals and 63-sell signals in 2018 through this weekend of that year. Hold signals were 76.3% in the market and avoid signals were 23.8% out of the market at this time of year in 2018.

 

The above performance reflects status at the time of the updates. Abandoned securities have no impact to the above performance statistics and the historical report card. They always represent status at the time of that status and never changes. When securities become NLT (no longer traded), their performance levels are excluded from the report card at the time they become NLT. There are no retroactive adjustments. The number of stocks and funds tracked from week to week may differ because they are no longer traded or listed on major stock exchanges.     

 

The Indicant started retaining records of abandoned stocks and funds in 2012. There are advantages of retaining records by expressing the consequences of an organization employing dilettante management and related corporate leeching. All organizations eventually expire. The primary causes of such expirations are corporate leeching, stupidity, and arrogance (without cause). {Note: the same is true of governments that fall prey to either economic leeching (FDR) and/or excessive egomaniacal behavior by its leaders (Hitler)}. Click here to see abandoned securities.

 

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals

Selling and avoiding stocks have increased the past several months as politicians have again wreaked havoc on the equity markets. The stock market bear is dominant and as long as political fundamentals remain intact, the stock market bull will remain shy.

 

Clicking this sentence will take you to this weekend’s Mid-term Indicant buy/sell signals.

 

The Short-term Indicant signals buy and sell for ETF’s, almost daily, provided the ETFs enjoy a buy signal or endure a sell signal. They are not included in the Mid-term Indicant summaries. These short-term models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts, while the Mid-term Indicant includes fundamentals and longer-term technical data to reject short-term trader nervousness. The Daily Stock Market Report reports status for the short-term model.

 

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

 

Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for several years, do not fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it does. The markets, both free and controlled, are not constant. Control freaks in political power have 100% potential to create economic and social calamity with their desired result of a police state. That is why they encourage asset destruction. That would give them absolute power. That is never good for anyone but them.

 

 Reported CPI is no longer healthy. The PPI, as reported, is now unfavorably penetrating the stock market bull and the economy. The annual inflation rate is reported at 8.7%. Oil prices are up 57.3% from this time one year ago. Oil is up by $80.66/BBL (+223.9%) since Biden’s so-called election.

 

The Prime Rate, Discount Rate, and Effective Rate increased 75-basis points on weekending Jun 17, 2022, following a 50-basis point increase on weekending May 7, 2022, following a 25-basis points on weekending Mar 18, 2022, which was the first-rate change since the 100-basis points decrease two years earlier on Mar 20, 2020.  Economic damage inflicted by the democratic party, germ warfare from their China pals, and other overstepping U.S. communistic politicians, and the self-proclaimed elites are now starting to manifest. The destination to a decreased quality of life has begun.

 

The 3-Month T-Bill shifted to Red Bull status on weekending Jan 28, 2022, after about two and a half years of enduring Yellow Bear status since Jul 19, 2019.  The T-Bill has risen a significant amount the past several weeks to the delight of the stock market bear. That behavior is now more visible on the chart as interest rates continue escaping the gravity of zero in a race to the clouds of stupidity.

           

The Euro dropped to Yellow Bear status on weekending Oct 22, 2021, after losing Red Bull status on weekending Jul 31, 2021.  It continues residence in the domain of the Yellow Bear. The 2024-mean forecast is at $1.17 with more aggressive intrinsic modeling, projecting $0.90 to $0.94.

 

The Canadian dollar remains in the neutral zone (between Red and Yellow) after climbing above Yellow (weakening) during the week of July 17, 2021. Its 2024-mean forecast is $1.29CA with projected polynomials forecasting much weaker values ranging from $1.78CA to $1.83CA.

 

The Japanese Yen continues weakening since crossing above Red on Apr 2, 2021. Its narrow min-max points from 2017 through mid-2021 remains impressive with that tightness continuing through September 2021, when some additional weakening occurred. It continues to be escaping that tight trading range from 2017 through mid-2021. It weakened severely the week of Apr 4, 2022. Its statistical mean forecast is at 112-yen/dollar by Dec 2024 while the aggressive polynomials are projecting a range of 148-152-Yen/U.S. dollar. It also strengthened during the week of the U.S. presidential election but has been holding above Red the past several weeks (weakening).

 

The British Pound fell to Yellow Bear status as of Mar 11, 2022 and falling further below Yellow. Its statistical mean forecast is at $1.34 with more aggressive polynomials, projecting around $0.98-$1.02 by Dec 2024. The last bearish cycle was deeper than the prior one suggesting a trend reversal favoring its bearishness.

 

The Bitcoin fell to Yellow Bear status on week ending May 20, 2022 for the first time since early 2020. After that bearishness, it is now fallen to around $20,000.

                       

Gold endured Yellow Bear status on weekending Apr 2, 2021 and rejected that on weekending Apr 23, 2021.  It is no longer a Red Bull and now between Red and Yellow. The Dec 2024-mean forecast is $1,910/oz. while the more aggressive polynomials are projecting a Dec 2024 value approximating $1,290-$1,315/oz. You can keep up with an approximation of this on the Indicant Daily Stock Market Report by tracking ETF#11-GLD.

 

Oil regained Red Bull status on weekending Dec 31, 2020, after moving above the domain of the Yellow Bear on weekending Jun 19, 2020. It had been bouncy around $40/bbl. for several weeks but became highly bullish following Biden’s so-called election. The Dec 2024-intrinsic and aggressive polynomial forecast remains below zero with the statistical mean forecast of $62/bbl. Saudi Royalty is very pleased with their new low IQ puppets in D.C. The Russians are also delighted with an interpretation they can retry conquering the world. There is some jawboning where the Royalty is being told to lower prices or the D.C. puppets will be tossed out.

 

The CRB Bridge Futures regained Red Bull status on weekending Dec 31, 2020, after abandoning Yellow Bear status on the week of August 3, 2020. That correlated well with a dumb populace and vote cheaters supporting the communistic takeover attempt of the U.S. It is now aggressively contributing to inflation with it regaining Red Bull status on weekending Feb 26, 2021. It also strengthened during the week of the U.S. election and has continued doing so with no sign of any countermeasures from the source of the inflationary problem; the democratic party, news media, lunatic masses in their deep state of tabula rasa, and now a little Russian guy attempting to conquer other nations. It continues being bullish and thus inflationary.

 

Mortgage rates regained Red Bull status on weekending Mar 12, 2021, after falling into Yellow Bear status on weekending Apr 12, 2019.  As of weekending Dec 3, 2021, they were weak Red Bulls, but now increasingly militant to future home buyers. This no longer remains a great time to finance real estate. However, it is still arguably a good time, as interest rates will be triple prevailing levels before 2024.

 

The consumer price index and producer price index are now computing with the combined absolute value of threatening interest rates and inflation or deflation of 8%. That is not bullish.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals, and one new bear signal this week for the major indices along the mid-term cycle.

 

The nine bears are down by an average of 13.0% since their bear signals 7.4-weeks ago.

 

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $72.1 million. That beats buy and hold performance of $4.4 million on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $4.43 million. That beats buy and hold’s $1.58 million on a Jan 6, 1950, $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $2.86 million. That beats buy and hold’s $1.08 million on a Jan 29, 1971, $10,000 investment.  The MTI-Dow Transports is at $42.804-million. That is better than buy and hold $1.035 million since a $10,000 investment on Oct 19, 1928. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1,650.7%, 281.5%, 264.5%, and 4,135.5%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

 

There are two reasons why the Dow Transport index is included in the above summary. It is used by the Dow Theory Forecast, which has merit, albeit slowly. The second reason is the statistical friendliness and its near-perfect sinusoidal waves. It tends to stay committed to its underlying cycle of bullishness or bearishness more than other indices.

 

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals as buy and hold and the Indicant moves at the same magnitude. The Indicant’s advantage only occurs during bear signals as the cash holds constant, while the stock market dives.

 

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks  

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history. Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

 

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 99.8% since then. Although this is classically presidential post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy and hold during 2009, 2013, 2017, and 2021 as the stock market bear remained in hibernation, for the most part, in those four presidential post-election years. Interest rates fell to historical lows in the 2008/9 recession and have persisted since then and thus giving rise to equity attractiveness to investors. Recent elections are highlighting left leaning political movements. The return of politburo wannabes in congress will offer this fund and others like it, profound growth opportunities at some future point, but not right now, even with the coronavirus inflicting damage to the economy and the corrupt election of the democratic (communist) party. Keep in mind, politburos confiscate. They are already confiscating your freedom. Conditions are mounting favoring strong profit potential in this economic climate, despite the newly forming political threat by the communistic movement now underway with the guise of climate change, racism, China virus-Covid rules, etc. Sociopathic political leadership is more common than not throughout recorded history. The presidential post-election year of 2021 successfully argued against historical trends of stock market bearishness. Low interest rates continue being credited with this and should be referred to as the Bernanke/Trump bull. Rest assured lying politicians take credit. And, as always, a populace believing the lies will eventually pay the price. Russia’s desire to dominate others is a new opportunity for this fund, as long as the dominated are not Americans. In that case, nothing has value, including gold.

 

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

 

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

 

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

 

The Dow is up 932.5%, annualized at 30.3% since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,598-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

 

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

 

The next section is the last daily stock market report for this past week

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Archives

{Repeated here are from the last trading day’s daily stock market report from the previous week. Click this link to see all the daily reports from the last 12-months. Retaining here in the weekly report allows for longer retention periods of the daily stock market reports that describe the short-term cycle at the end of each week}.

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Summary

Jun 17-The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for only one ETF. It is contrarian QID-(Chart). That is with extreme bearish configurations for the overall stock market. Holding non-contrarian ETF’s is inappropriate at this time. Even partially non-contrarian ETF#03-XLE-(Chart)-Energy endured a sell signal/ However, it is still enjoying a Quick-term Indicant hold signal from its Nov 27, 2020 buy signal where it is up 88.9% since then. If it endures a quick-term sell signals, the current economic recession will become worse as those in political power will attempt to tax energy companies with their false claims they are responsible for inflation. Those in political power are directly responsible for the prevailing recession and inflation.

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

 

Index Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and one new bear.

 

Number of Near-term Bulls: 0 of 12

Duration of Near-term Bulls: N/A-wks-avg.

Near-term Bull Performance: N/A%; Annualized Performance: N/A%

Number of Near-term Bears: 12 of 12

Average Duration of Near-term Bears: 7.7-wks. avg.

Near-term Bears Average Performance: -10.3%  

Near-term Performance Advantage: Apr 22, 2022-Stock Market Bear

           

Near-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses  

Near-term Indicant Non-Contrarian Configured Bullish Blue Bulls: 0 of 11 

Near-term Indicant Non-Contrarian Configured Bearish Green Bears: 11 of 11

 

Near-term Position Cyclical Advantage: Apr 22, 2022-Stock Market Bear

 

Index Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

                                               

Number of Quick-term Bulls: 0 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term Bulls: N/A-wks.

Quick-term Bull Performance: N/A%; Quick-term Annualized Performance: N/A%.

 

Number of Quick-term Bears: 12 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term Bears: 7.5-weeks-avg.

Quick-term Bear Performance: -10.0%

 

Quick-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 0 of 12

Configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 12 of 12

 

Quick-term Configured Advantage: Apr 14, 2022-Quick-term Advantage to Bear

                                   

Short-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses          

Non-contrarian force vectors in bullish domains: 0 of 11

Non-contrarian force vectors higher than vector pressure: 0 of 11

Non-contrarian vector pressure in bullish domains: 0 of 11

Non-contrarian bullish force vector direction: 0 of 11

Non-contrarian bullish vector pressure direction: 0 of 11

 

Short-term Advantage: Short-term Advantage: Apr 14, 2022-Quick-term Advantage to Bear

 

Indicant Volume Indicators

Jun 17-Both volume indicators elevated into the domain of high interest internal to the prevailing bear cycle. That continues to bode well for the stock market bear.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

ETF Near-term Report Card Summary

There were no buy signals and four sell signals along the near-term cycle.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for one ETF. It is up  29.5% since its buy signal 8.0-weeks ago, annualizing at 191.7%. The lone hold is ETF#32-QID-(Chart).

 

The Near-term Indicant is avoiding 27-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 13.3% since their sell signals an average of 10.7-weeks ago.

 

Near-term ETF Cycle Analyses

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 2

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 1

 

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 1

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 1

 

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue     Bulls: 0

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 26

 

Near-term Advantage: Stock Market Bear as of Apr 22, 2022

          

ETF Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and four sell signals.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for two ETF’s. They are up by an average of 59.2% since their buy signals an average of 44.5-weeks ago, annualizing at 69.2%.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 26-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 13.3% since their sell signals 10.8-weeks ago.

                               

Quick-term ETF Cycle Analyses  

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 2

           

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 0

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 0

           

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red      Bulls: 0

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 27

 

Quick-term Advantage: Quick-term Stock Market Bear May 13, 2022

 

Reverse Tangential Projections                   

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections.

           

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

Other links:

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the S&P500 Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Understanding Content on the Short-term Indicant Charts

 

Reverse Tangential Projections                   

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections.

           

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

Other links:

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the S&P500 Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Understanding Content on the Short-term Indicant Charts

 

Indicant Conclusion

As stated five weeks ago, “the nine Mid-term Indicant bear signals remain supportive of the stock market bear. Fundamentals and technical configurations are increasingly supportive of the stock market bear.” As of June 17, 2022, there are ten Mid-term Indicant bears. That is fully bearish and there is no reason to expect stock market bullishness until you see bull signals.

 

Click this sentence to keep up with the Short-term Indicant.

 

Click this sentence to maintain stock market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.

 

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.

 

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

 

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

 

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc., click the following hyperlink:

 

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm 

 

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page on the website, so you can always find your way back.

 

Stop Loss Management

This was moved to the bottom of this report as its content rarely changes. You will be notified when stop losses should be tightened or loosened.

 

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized capital gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the greater value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences.

 

For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

 

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying. Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

 

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

 

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

 

Click this sentence to keep up with the Short-term Indicant.

 

Click this sentence to maintain stock market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.

 

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.

 

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

 

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

 

Happy Investing,

 

www.indicant.net

06/19/2022

 

 

June 5, 2022, Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 06, Issue 01 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

The Dow Utilities Is the Lone Guardian and a Repeat from the 1970’s

Fundamentally, nothing is different from last week. Unemployment was purported to have improved. If accurate, that is yet more inflationary. Strategic economic analysis is now underway to determine which is worse, more employment or higher inflation. Once that analysis is completed the stock market will follow the path that correlates with corporate earnings.

 

The ten major indices were down by an average of 0.9%. The most bearish was the stock market bull’s guardian, the Dow Utilities-(Chart). It fell by a solid 1.4%. Anyone desiring a return of the stock market bull does not want to see the Dow Utilities endure a bear signal with all the other major indices already inflicted with that. Some of you recall how the stock market bear dominated in late 2008 “after” the Dow Utilities succumbed to the stock market bear.

 

The prevailing stock market bear, although unsettling, has not yet been dynamic, instead expressing mild erosion. The reason for that is due to money rotating into the utility sector on those days when most other sectors are bearish. The energy sector is another recipient of money rotation in the current bear market. That dilutes funds from being diverted to the utility sector and thus accelerating the probability of a deep bear market.

 

Political behavior, economic behavior, and stock market behavior is like the 1970’s. Clicking this sentence highlights the DJIA’s 40% drop in 1973-74 due to skyrocketing oil prices and a shortage of the commodity. OPEC’s embargo accelerated that. The embargo was created by political missteps from a long line of politicians originating with JFK and ending with Jimmy Carter. Click this sentence to see a couple of 20%+ drops in the DJIA from 1977-1981.

 

During the time span from the early 1970’s to 1981, there were three recessions. Politicians such as Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter only jawboned as the dynamics of the economy and human behavior was beyond their grasp of understanding. Crime was high in the 1970’s, just as it is now, and you have a president who also jawbones. But this one jawbones nonsensicality most of the time. At least Ford and Carter understood what they were talking about although at an elementary level. The good news is that stock market bull does not care about political jawboning. However, it does care about legislation and executive orders. That is because most of the time, such matters drive corporate profits down.

 

Politicians continue vocalizing nonsensicality. Although politicians should be harmless to the economy since they do not contribute to it, you are witnessing politician’s direct economic damage. The word, economy, sounds a bit academic. The reduction in the quality of life is now underway and it is politically driven. A healthy economy is required for an increased quality of life. Politicians are aligning with Karl Marx, as that lunatic, who was an economic leech somehow find enough other lunatics to listen to him. Yet, you hear his ghost in unrelenting fashion from contemporary politicians with Bernie Sanders leading in the messaging.

 

As stated, many times the only positive effect on the economy from politicians is to undo prior political damage. Do not be surprised to find a stock market over the next ten years like that in the 1970’s. The middle class will endure the most pain.

 

Mid-term Indicant Status of the Major Indices

The major stock market indices can be accessed by clicking this sentence.

Click this sentence to review how to understand the below terms.

 

Click this sentence to understand the details on the charts.

 

Mid-term Indicant Red Bulls-Click for Explanation1): 1-Red Bull, 9-Non-Red Bulls

Comment: The lone Red Bull, DJU-(Chart), is above Red by 6.6%.  The stock market bull is no longer dominant. However, just one Red Bull prevents the stock market bear from absolute domination.

 

Mid-term Indicant Blue Bulls-Click for Explanation2): 0-Blue Bulls, 10-Non-Blue Bulls

            Comment: The DJU-(Chart) lost blue bull status this past week after regaining it in the prior week. The absence of Blue Bulls is non-bullishness. The stock market bear can attack without much resistance.

 

Mid-term Indicant Yellow Bears-Click for Explanation3): 0-Yellow Bears, 10-Non-Yellow Bears

              Comment: All major indices are above Yellow by an average of 21.1%. The absence of Yellow Bears strongly suggest economic depression is not possible now. Stock market dynamics are never wrong in predicting that, but sometimes predicts a non-existing recession. Recession or not, the Indicant’s focus is to avoid bears. It will not wait for a 21.1% drop before signaling bear. Rest assured a future Yellow Bear lurks, but not along the mid-term horizon at this time. Also, keep in mind, severe stock market bears can drop 50.0% in a matter of weeks, while a stock market bull’s 50% increase is much slower. Keep in mind a 50% drop requires a 100% increase to displace the 50% drop.

 

Mid-term Indicant Green Bears-Click for Explanation4): 7-Green Bears, 3-Non-Green Bears

              Comment: The seven Green Bears are below green by 2.2%. Nine of the ten major indices are bears due to falling below Green in the past several weeks. The three non-Green Bears are above Green by an average of 4.2%, but that is misleading since the DJU-(Chart) is above Green by 12.1%.

 

Mid-term Indicant Red to Green Position5): 10-Red Higher than Green; 0-Green Higher Than Red

              Comment: The mix here is irrelevant at this point with all red curves above green curves. The over-heating indicator expired and awaiting a new cycle of overheating. That will be quite some time from now. Most likely several years from now. Much depends on elections and removal of the nonsensicality of the newly found movement of the political elite as the masters of delineating disinformation from fact. On the contrary they are the masters of disinformation. It is amazing how evil introduces itself as some sort of master of this and that, while they are simply pontificators who has normal disdain from contrarian pontificators. Neither group is good. The only good from humanity’s contribution are from within the three meaningful groups of economic sectors. That is manufacturing, extraction, and agriculture. All else is just noise that is no different from the static you hear when your radio is near power lines.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Position6): 0-bullish domains, 10-bearish domains

              Comment:  This supports the stock market bear.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Relative to Vector Pressure7): 8-above pressure, 2-below pressure

              Comment: The recent bullish spurt propelled force higher than pressure, offering the stock market bull a small glimmer of hope.

           

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Position8): 0-bullish domains, 10-bearish domains

              Comment: This remains supportive of the stock market bear. The DJU-(Chart) vector pressure point fell into bearish domains this past week, increasing support for the stock market bear.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Direction9): 10-bullishly directed, 0-bearishly directed

              Comment: This attribute offers a glimmer of hope for the stock market bull.

 

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Direction10): 6-bullishly directed, 4-bearishly directed

            Comment: This remains supportive of the stock market bear as the bull strongly prefers all ten be bullish directed while residing in bearish domains.

 

Click this sentence to review how to understand the above terms.

Click this sentence to understand how to read the charts.

 

Mid-term Indicant Configured Condition of Major Indices: Configurations remain supportive for the stock market bear.

 

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Last Five Years

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows in this section. It highlights historical performance since 2002. Simply scroll down the webpage to see graphical and detail content of this section. The below describes the same for the past five years. If a particular year interest you, click this sentence, which will show you all of the prior weekly reports dating back to 2002 along with Indicant performance levels at the time of those reports. From there, you can click the year of interest and then to the specific time-period you are interested in. Please note that after the Weekly Stock Market Report, dated Aug 12, 2018, ten years of history was replaced with five years of history. Again, historical weekly reports, dating to 2002 remain available on the website. As 2008’s great bear market fades beyond the 10th anniversary, just as the NASDAQ’s 2002 drop of 89% was also no longer reported in 2012, it is no longer necessary to report 2008 here. These historical references, however, do remain on the website. The website has stock market history dating back to 1900.

 

The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no-sell signals this weekend. Clicking this sentence is where the Mid-term Indicant buy and sell signals are displayed.  

 

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 165 of the 315-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. Stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 371.0% that annualizes to 85.1%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 165-stocks and funds for an average of 226.8-weeks. There have been 16      -buy signals for stocks and funds so far, this year. Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant, hold signals are 52.4% in the market.

 

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 150-stocks and funds of 315-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 16.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 81.0-weeks ago. There have been 104-sell signals for stocks and funds so far, this year. Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant, avoid signals are 47.6% out of the market.

 

One year ago, on Jun 4, 2021, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 280-stocks and funds of the 316-tracked for an average of 139.9-weeks. They were up by an average of 276.0%, annualizing at 102.6%. There were 32-avoided stocks and funds at this time last year. They were down by an average of 37.0% since their sell signals an average of 182.9-weeks earlier. There were four buy signals and no sell signals at this time of year in 2021.  There had been 44-buy signals and 13-sell signals throughout the year on this weekend in 2021. Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant, holds were 89.9% in the market and avoids were 10.1% out of the market.

 

Two years ago, on Jun 5, 2020, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 169-stocks and funds of the 316-tracked for an average of 217.1-weeks. They were up by an average of 311.2%, annualizing at 74.5%. There were 89-avoided stocks and funds at this time last year. They were down by an average of 28.4% since their sell signals an average of 112.7-weeks earlier. There were 58 buy signals and no sell signals at this time of year in 2020.  There had been 166-buy signals and 196-sell signals through this weekend in Covid’s 2020. Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant, holds were 71.8% in the market and avoids were 28.2% out of the market. The post Covid Bull was well on its way to dominate again after March 2020.

 

Three years ago, on Jun 7, 2019, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 209-stocks and funds of the 321-tracked for an average of 268.7-weeks. They were up by an average of 233.4% (annualized at 45.1%). There were 112-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down by an average of 22.7% since their respective sell signals an average of 74.0-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2019. There had been 81-buy signals and 48-sell signals for the year through this weekend in 2019. Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant, holds were 65.1% in the market and avoids were 34.9% out of the market.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 247 stocks and funds on Jun 1, 2018. They were up 224.9% since their buy signals an average of 257.5-weeks earlier, annualizing at 45.4%. There were 73-avoided stocks and funds on this weekend since their sell signals an average of 85.1-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2018. There had been 33-buy signals and 57-sell signals in 2018 through this weekend of that year. Hold signals were 77.2% in the market and avoid signals were 22.8% out of the market at this time of year in 2018.

 

The above performance reflects status at the time of the updates. Abandoned securities have no impact to the above performance statistics and the historical report card. They always represent status at the time of that status and never changes. When securities become NLT (no longer traded), their performance levels are excluded from the report card at the time they become NLT. There are no retroactive adjustments. The number of stocks and funds tracked from week to week may differ because they are no longer traded or listed on major stock exchanges.     

 

The Indicant started retaining records of abandoned stocks and funds in 2012. There are advantages of retaining records by expressing the consequences of an organization employing dilettante management and related corporate leeching. All organizations eventually expire. The primary causes of such expirations are corporate leeching, stupidity, and arrogance (without cause). {Note: the same is true of governments that fall prey to either economic leeching (FDR) and/or excessive egomaniacal behavior by its leaders (Hitler)}. Click here to see abandoned securities.

 

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals

Selling and avoiding stocks have increased the past several months as politicians have again wreaked havoc on the equity markets. The stock market bear is dominant and as long as political fundamentals remain intact, the stock market bull will remain shy.

 

Clicking this sentence will take you to this weekend’s Mid-term Indicant buy/sell signals.

 

The Short-term Indicant signals buy and sell for ETF’s, almost daily, provided the ETFs enjoy a buy signal or endure a sell signal. They are not included in the Mid-term Indicant summaries. These short-term models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts, while the Mid-term Indicant includes fundamentals and longer-term technical data to reject short-term trader nervousness. The Daily Stock Market Report reports status for the short-term model.

 

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

 

Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for several years, do not fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it does. The markets, both free and controlled, are not constant. Control freaks in political power have 100% potential to create economic and social calamity with their desired result of a police state. That is why they encourage asset destruction. That would give them absolute power. That is never good for anyone but them.

 

 Reported CPI is no longer healthy. The PPI, as reported, is now unfavorably penetrating the stock market bull and the economy. The annual inflation rate is reported at 8.3%. Oil prices are up 70.7% from this time one year ago. Oil is up by $82.05/BBL (+228.9%) since Biden’s so-called election.

 

The Prime Rate, Discount Rate, and Effective Rate increased 50-basis points on weekending Mar 18, 2022. That is the first-rate change since the 100-basis points decrease two years earlier on Mar 20, 2020.  Economic damage inflicted by the democratic party, germ warfare from their China pals, and other overstepping U.S. communistic politicians, and the self-proclaimed elites are now starting to manifest. The destination to a decreased quality of life has begun.

 

The 3-Month T-Bill shifted to Red Bull status on weekending Jan 28, 2022, after about two and a half years of enduring Yellow Bear status since Jul 19, 2019.  The T-Bill has risen a significant amount the past several weeks to the delight of the stock market bear. That behavior is now more visible on the chart as interest rates continue escaping the gravity of zero in a race to the clouds of stupidity.

           

The Euro dropped to Yellow Bear status on weekending Oct 22, 2021, after losing Red Bull status on weekending Jul 31, 2021.  It continues residence in the domain of the Yellow Bear. The 2024-mean forecast is at $1.17 with more aggressive intrinsic modeling, projecting $0.87 to $0.91.

 

The Canadian dollar remains in the neutral zone (between Red and Yellow) after climbing above Yellow (weakening) during the week of July 17, 2021. Its 2024-mean forecast is $1.29CA with projected polynomials forecasting much weaker values ranging from $1.79CA to $1.84CA.

 

The Japanese Yen continues weakening since crossing above Red on Apr 2, 2021. Its narrow min-max points from 2017 through mid-2021 remains impressive with that tightness continuing through September 2021, when some additional weakening occurred. It continues to be escaping that tight trading range from 2017 through mid-2021. It weakened severely the week of Apr 4, 2022, and now escaping its tight trading range. Its statistical mean forecast is at 110-yen/dollar by Dec 2024 while the aggressive polynomials are projecting a range of 148-152-Yen/U.S. dollar. It also strengthened during the week of the U.S. presidential election but has been holding above Red the past several weeks (weakening).

 

The British Pound fell to Yellow Bear status as of Mar 11, 2022 and falling further below Yellow. Its statistical mean forecast is at $1.32 with more aggressive polynomials, projecting around $0.97-$1.01 by Dec 2024. The last bearish cycle was deeper than the prior one suggesting a trend reversal favoring its bearishness.

 

The Bitcoin fell to Yellow Bear status on week ending May 20, 2022 for the first time since early 2020. After that bearishness, it is stalled between $20k and $30k.

                       

Gold endured Yellow Bear status on weekending Apr 2, 2021 and rejected that on weekending Apr 23, 2021.  It is no longer a Red Bull and now between Red and Yellow. The Dec 2024-mean forecast is $1,820/oz. while the more aggressive polynomials are projecting a Dec 2024 value approximating $1,290-$1,315/oz. You can keep up with an approximation of this on the Indicant Daily Stock Market Report by tracking ETF#11-GLD.

 

Oil regained Red Bull status on weekending Dec 31, 2020, after moving above the domain of the Yellow Bear on weekending Jun 19, 2020. It had been bouncy around $40/bbl. for several weeks but became highly bullish since Biden’s so-called election. The Dec 2024-intrinsic and aggressive polynomial forecast remains below zero with the statistical mean forecast of $60/bbl. Saudi Royalty is very pleased with their new low IQ puppets in D.C. The Russians are also delighted with an interpretation they can retry conquering the world. There is some jawboning where the Royalty is being told to lower prices or the D.C. puppets will be tossed out.

 

The CRB Bridge Futures regained Red Bull status on weekending Dec 31, 2020, after abandoning Yellow Bear status on the week of August 3, 2020. That correlated well with a dumb populace and vote cheaters supporting the communistic takeover attempt of the U.S. It is now aggressively contributing to inflation with it regaining Red Bull status on weekending Feb 26, 2021. It also strengthened during the week of the U.S. election and has continued doing so with no sign of any countermeasures from the source of the inflationary problem; the democratic party, news media, lunatic masses in their deep state of tabula rasa, and now a little Russian guy attempting to conquer other nations. It continues being bullish and thus inflationary.

 

Mortgage rates regained Red Bull status on weekending Mar 12, 2021, after falling into Yellow Bear status on weekending Apr 12, 2019.  As of weekending Dec 3, 2021, they were weak Red Bulls, but now increasingly militant to future home buyers. This no longer remains a great time to finance real estate. However, it is still a good time, as interest rates will be triple prevailing levels before 2024.

 

The consumer price index and producer price index are now computing with the combined absolute value of threatening interest rates and inflation or deflation of 8%.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals, and no new bear signals this week for the major indices along the mid-term cycle.

 

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling bull for one of the ten major indices. That bull is up by 16.8% since its bull signals 62.0-weeks ago and annualizing at 14.1%. The nine bears are down by an average of 2.7% since their bear signals an average of 5.4 weeks ago.

 

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $72.1 million. That beats buy and hold performance of $4.8 million on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $4.43 million. That beats buy and hold’s $1.76 million on a Jan 6, 1950, $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $2.86 million. That beats buy and hold’s $1.20 million on a Jan 29, 1971, $10,000 investment.  The MTI-Dow Transports is at $29.8-million. That is better than buy and hold $1.0 million since a $10,000 investment on Oct 19, 1928. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1,499.6%, 251.8%, 237.8%, and 4,135.5%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

 

There are two reasons why the Dow Transport index is included in the above summary. It is used by the Dow Theory Forecast, which has merit, albeit slowly. The second reason is the statistical friendliness and its near-perfect sinusoidal waves. It tends to stay committed to its underlying cycle of bullishness or bearishness more than other indices.

 

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals as buy and hold and the Indicant moves at the same magnitude. The Indicant’s advantage only occurs during bear signals as the cash holds constant, while the stock market dives.

 

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks  

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history. Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

 

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 99.8% since then. Although this is classically presidential post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy and hold during 2009, 2013, 2017, and 2021 as the stock market bear remained in hibernation, for the most part, in those four presidential post-election years. Interest rates fell to historical lows in the 2008/9 recession and have persisted since then and thus giving rise to equity attractiveness to investors. Recent elections are highlighting left leaning political movements. The return of politburo wannabes in congress will offer this fund and others like it, profound growth opportunities at some future point, but not right now, even with the coronavirus inflicting damage to the economy and the corrupt election of the democratic (communist) party. Keep in mind, politburos confiscate. They are already confiscating your freedom. Conditions are mounting favoring strong profit potential in this economic climate, despite the newly forming political threat by the communistic movement now underway with the guise of climate change, racism, China virus-Covid rules, etc. Sociopathic political leadership is more common than not throughout recorded history. The presidential post-election year of 2021 successfully argued against historical trends of stock market bearishness. Low interest rates continue being credited with this and should be referred to as the Bernanke/Trump bull. Rest assured lying politicians take credit. And, as always, a populace believing the lies will eventually pay the price. Russia’s desire to dominate others is a new opportunity for this fund, as long as the dominated are not Americans. In that case, nothing has value, including gold.

 

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

 

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

 

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

 

The Dow is up 1,036.5%, annualized at 33.8% since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,596-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

 

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

 

The next section is the last daily stock market report for this past week

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Archives

{Repeated here are from the last trading day’s daily stock market report from the previous week. Click this link to see all the daily reports from the last 12-months. Retaining here in the weekly report allows for longer retention periods of the daily stock market reports that describe the short-term cycle at the end of each week}.

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Summary

Jun 3-Fri-Most short-term force vectors have shifted back into a bearish direction. Some are wavering offering the stock market bull some mild hope. Petroleum related ETF’s remain bullish. Short-term configurations remain bearish, except vector pressures crossed into bullish domains, offering yet another technical element of potential bullishness. Avoiding the stock market is prudent at this point, except those tied to energy.  

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

 

Index Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

Number of Near-term Bulls: 1 of 12

Duration of Near-term Bulls: 1.0-wks-avg.

Near-term Bull Performance: -1.4%; Annualized Performance: -1.4%

Number of Near-term Bears: 11 of 12

Average Duration of Near-term Bears: 5.7-wks. avg.

Near-term Bears Average Performance: -3.2% 

Near-term Performance Advantage: Apr 22, 2022-Stock Market Bear

           

Near-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses  

Near-term Indicant Non-Contrarian Configured Bullish Blue Bulls: 11 of 11 

Near-term Indicant Non-Contrarian Configured Bearish Green Bears: 0 of 11

 

Near-term Position Cyclical Advantage: Apr 22, 2022-Stock Market Bear

 

Index Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

                                               

Number of Quick-term Bulls: 1 of 12 (Quick-term Bullish Unanimity)

Average Duration of Quick-term Bulls: 37.0-wks.

Quick-term Bull Performance: 12.9%; Quick-term Annualized Performance: 18.1%.

 

Number of Quick-term Bears: 11 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term Bears: 5.5-weeks-avg.

Quick-term Bear Performance: -2.9%

 

Quick-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 0 of 12

Configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 9 of 12

 

Quick-term Configured Advantage: Apr 14, 2022-Quick-term Advantage to Bear

                                   

Short-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses          

Non-contrarian force vectors in bullish domains: 11 of 11

Non-contrarian force vectors higher than vector pressure: 11 of 11

Non-contrarian vector pressure in bullish domains: 10 of 11

Non-contrarian bullish force vector direction: 0 of 11

Non-contrarian bullish vector pressure direction: 11 of 11

 

Short-term Advantage: Short-term Advantage: Apr 14, 2022-Quick-term Advantage to Bear

 

Indicant Volume Indicators

Jun 3-Volume was higher this past week on strong stock market bearishness than prior week stock market bullishness, which was reported as fake last week. And indeed it was fake. Both volume indicators remain in the domain of high interest. That remains supportive of the stock market bear.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

ETF Near-term Report Card Summary

There were no buy signals and no sell signals along the near-term cycle.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for six ETF’s. Those enjoying hold signals are up by an average of 7.8% since their buy signals an average of 5.2-weeks ago, annualizing at 78.3%.

 

The NTI is avoiding 26-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 5.1% since their sell signals an average of 9.1-weeks ago.

 

Near-term ETF Cycle Analyses

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 0

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 1

 

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 1

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 0

 

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue     Bulls: 23

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 0

 

Near-term Advantage: Stock Market Bear as of Apr 22, 2022

          

ETF Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for six ETF’s. They are up by an average of 31.3% since their buy signals an average of 30.4-weeks ago, annualizing at 53.6%.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 26-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 4.8% since their sell signals 8.8-weeks ago.

                               

Quick-term ETF Cycle Analyses  

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 2

           

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 0

           

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red      Bulls: 2

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 20

 

Quick-term Advantage: Quick-term Stock Market Bear May 13, 2022

 

Reverse Tangential Projections                   

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections.

           

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

Other links:

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the S&P500 Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Understanding Content on the Short-term Indicant Charts

 

Reverse Tangential Projections                   

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections.

           

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

Other links:

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the S&P500 Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Understanding Content on the Short-term Indicant Charts

 

Indicant Conclusion

As stated the past three weeks, “the nine Mid-term Indicant bear signals remain supportive of the stock market bear. Fundamentals and technical configurations are increasingly supportive of the stock market bear.” As stated last week, “nothing is different, despite last week’s strong stock market bullishness.” The stock market was bearish this past week. That is congruent with political fundamentals.

 

Click this sentence to keep up with the Short-term Indicant.

 

Click this sentence to maintain stock market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.

 

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.

 

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

 

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

 

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc., click the following hyperlink:

 

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm 

 

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page on the website, so you can always find your way back.

 

Stop Loss Management

This was moved to the bottom of this report as its content rarely changes. You will be notified when stop losses should be tightened or loosened.

 

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized capital gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the greater value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences.

 

For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

 

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying. Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

 

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

 

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

 

Click this sentence to keep up with the Short-term Indicant.

 

Click this sentence to maintain stock market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.

 

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.

 

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

 

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

 

Happy Investing,

 

www.indicant.net

06/05/2022

 

 

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