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Feb 11, 2018 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 02, Issue 02 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

  

Recent Stock Market Bearishness Still Not Spooky

As stated two weeks ago in the section below, entitled, Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Position, “there will be non-bullish to bearish pressure applied the next few weeks.” Shortly thereafter the Near-term Indicant endured bearish unanimity. Click this sentence to see the current Short-term Indicant status for the major indices. The lone near-term bull is contrarian VIX, with all the other indices enduring near-term bear signals. The near-term status is on the left side of the table, colored blue.

 

The quick-term status is on the right side of the table in a pinkest color. You will notice one Quick-term Bear; the Dow Utilities. That bear was signaled on Jan 4, 2018. Scanning down the quick-term side of the table, you should notice three quick-term bulls approaching their second birthday. The Dow30, Dow Composites, and the S&P100 Large Caps all enjoyed Quick-term Indicant bull signals Feb 25, 2016. All other quick-term bulls also enjoyed their births in 2016, but the three mentioned are the older ones.

 

Despite stock market bearishness the past two weeks, the NASDAQ100 is up 48.0% since its Quick-term Indicant bull signal on March 1, 2016. If the stock market bear does not devour the NASDAQ100 in the next three weeks, it will also enjoy its second birthday. It is rare for the quick-term cycle to produce bulls that get to their second birthday.

 

Click this sentence to view the Dow Utilities short-term chart, which consists of both the near-term and quick-term cycles. The Near-term Indicant signaled bear when it fell below Red and Green on Dec 5, 2017. It is down 11.9% since then. Rather than rebounding from that, which is more common than not, it continued moving bearishly and succumbing to Yellow Bear status on Jan 4, 2018. As you can see, the Dow Utilities Index attempted a recovery after enduring Yellow Bear status. Furthermore, its vector pressure is directed bearishly inside bearish domains. That does not bode well for the stock market bull even though the Dow Utilities typically does not lead modern day stock market bears.

 

Click this sentence to view the Dow Utility Index Mid-term Indicant chart. You should notice its force vector. It fell into bearish domains in late 2017. It finally found a bottom a few weeks ago. As it started to renew a bullish cycle, it shied away from crossing vector pressure this past week. If you enjoy stock market bulls, you do not want that force vector to start a new bearish path. Again, the Dow Utilities has not led stock market bears for the most part of this century, but that does not mean it cannot. Its force vector is a serious attribute to monitor over the next few weeks.

 

With all of the above somewhat bearish commentary, why then have a headline entitled, Recent Bearish Stock Market Still Not Spooky. When using words and especially adjectives, the interpretation of any word is highly personal, as opposed to more solid numeric assignments. A rattlesnake catcher is not spooked by the rattlers, like most people. With that, this is analogized with yours truly. Red Bulls are like the rattlesnake. Yours truly never gets worried about stock market bearishness during Mid-term Indicant Red Bulls. Stock market bears hardly ever originate from Red Bulls. The only major index not enjoying Red Bull status is the Dow Utilities.

 

The other nine major indices are Red Bulls, offering a source of comfort. Prices are above Red by an average of 6.7%, despite recent stock market bearishness. The stock market could drop another 6.7% before any serious eyebrows would be raised. Last week was solidly bearish with the ten major indices falling by an average of 4.6%. Therefore, another week like last week would not trigger any new Mid-term Indicant bear signals. Clicking this sentence will take you to the Mid-term Indicant status table for all ten major indices.  Take a close look at that table. You will also notice the bulls are approaching two years of age. You will also notice the bulls are up by very healthy double digit amounts with the NASDAQ100 leading the charge by being up 48.1% since the Mid-term Indicant bull signal nearly two years ago on Mar 4, 2016. The weakest bull is the Dow Transports, which has been punished by recent gains in the price of fuel, despite the propensity to add fuel surcharges to their invoicing.

 

So, if two years ago, would you jump into the market knowing you would enjoy healthy double-digit gains? Most would enjoy 25% annual increases on any investment.

 

Finally, click this sentence to view the Indicant Volume Indicator Charts. The top chart is the NYSE volume chart, but also containing the Big Board’s pricing behavior since the beginning of this century. You will notice the 2009-Ben Bernanke Bull cycle. Democrats attempt to take credit for that, but it was all Ben Bernanke. He was the right person at the right time. However, the story is not yet complete until the long-term impact concludes and that is about ten years from now. On the same chart, you will also detect the 2013-sequestration bull path. You should also notice, it collapsed when Congress approved $3-trillion more in debt. Now scroll down to the busier NASDAQ chart. Notice the Trump bull leg. It is tighter and even more majestic than the 2013-Sequestration bull leg. Look closely at the upper right-hand corner of that chart. You should notice the NASDAQ has fallen to the lower band limit of the Trump Bull. The NASDAQ is even above the lower band limit of the 2013-Sequestration Bull cycle.

 

Band limit folks will point out enhanced stock market spookiness if prices fall below those lower band limits. Recent stock market bearish is no different from many other similar cycles in the past. You can see several on those volume charts.

 

Despite all of that, you will know the stock market bear is dominant when you see the Mid-term Indicant signal bear. Fundamentally, Congress is again approving trillions more in debt and the stock market bull when confused, pretty much naps or dies. The stock market bull understands earned wealth and has absolutely no respect for fake wealth, which weakens humanity and the desire to be productive and effective human beings. The modern day democratic party favors the stock market bear and all that is associate with it. The Indicant does not care about causation. It will signal bear when the indices fall below Red and Green with bearish force and pressure. It is very close to gauging the mid-term election year results. It will turn bearish if democrats are perceived to take over congress. Also, no punishment of deep state defenders will also trouble the stock market bull.

 

The next section highlights the current condition of the stock market.

 

Mid-term Indicant Status of the Major Indices

The major stock market indices can be accessed by clicking this sentence.

 

Click this sentence to review how to understand the below terms.

Click this sentence to understand the details on the charts.

 

Mid-term Indicant Red Bulls-Click for Explanation1): 9-Red Bulls, 1-Non-Red Bulls

            Comment: Red Bull unanimity remains absent with the Dow Utilities-(Chart) prevailing bear signal. The major indices, including non-Red Bulls, are now above bullish red by an average of 6.7%. Another 6.7% drop in the markets, overall, would be required before considering recent bearishness as serious.

 

Mid-term Indicant Blue Bulls-Click for Explanation2): 0-Blue Bulls, 10-Non-Blue Bulls

            Comment: The Dow Utilities-(Chart) lost Mid-term Indicant Blue Bull status, week ending Dec 22, 2017. The other nine major indices lost the highly desired Blue Bull status this past week. This is not yet serious since Red Bulls trump all else. 

 

Mid-term Indicant Yellow Bears-Click for Explanation3): 0-Yellow Bears, 10-Non-Yellow Bears

                Comment: None of the major indices are threatening on becoming a Yellow Bear. Falling to Yellow Bear status requires an average drop 28.3% from current position. The Dow Utilities is above Yellow Bear status by 8.3%.

 

Mid-term Indicant Green Bears-Click for Explanation4): 1-Green Bear, 9-Non-Green Bears

                Comment: The lone Green Bear is the DJU-(Chart). All ten major indices are above Green by an average of 4.0%. Bear signals for the major indices are signaled when prices fall below Green and no longer Red Bulls. At this point bear signals are not to be considered until the market falls another 6.7%.

 

Mid-term Indicant Red to Green Position5): Two Reds Higher than Green; Eight Greens Higher Than Red

                Comment: Although this attribute suggests an overheated bull market, it is increasingly no longer muted as insignificant. The DJT-(Chart) and the DJU-(Chart) are the only two major indices where Green has not crossed above Red. Green remains below Red, on average for all major indices, by 2.4%.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Position6): 7-bullish domains, 3-bearish domains

                Comment: The stock market bull feels secure when all force vectors are in bullish domains. Even though the DJU’s-(Chart) force vector remains in bearish domains, the stock market bull is not threatened with the other seven enjoying the pastures of bullish domains, despite recent stock market bearishness.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Relative to Vector Pressure7): 0-above pressure, 10-below pressure

                Comment: Bearish force unanimity is a bit discerning, suggesting the stock market bear has momentum at this point.

 

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Position8): 9-bullish domains, 1-bearish domains

                Comment: Bullish vector pressure unanimity does not exist with the DJU-(Chart) pressure remaining in bearish domains. Although a bit discerning, the other nine major indices remain positioned in bullish domains. As stated the past few weeks, there will be non-bullish to bearish pressure applied the next few weeks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Direction9): 1-bullish, 9-bearish

                Comment: This shifted in favor of the stock market bear on weekending Feb 2, 2018. Until they shift direction, the stock market bear holds an obvious advantage.

 

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Direction10): 0-bullish, 0-bearish

            Comment: This is in solid support of the stock market bear now.

 

Click this sentence to review how to understand the above terms.

Click this sentence to understand how to read the charts.

 

Mid-term Indicant Configured Condition of Major Indices: As stated for several months, the prevailing Red Bull population minimizes the potential for deep and long-lasting stock market bearishness. Most Mid-term Indicant attributes are configured with bullish support with only a few mild threats to the prevailing bullish bias.

 

Whipsawed – Review of Wild Swings Last Week

This section highlights last week’s biggest gainers and losers within each group of stocks and funds tracked by the Mid-term Indicant. The groups are the NASDAQ100- Stocks, the Indicant Selected Stocks (mainly energy and former NASDAQ100 stocks, coded ISTK), the Dow Jones 30-Stocks (DJIA), the Dow Utilities (DJU) and Mutual Funds(MF). The below excludes Short-term Indicant tracking of ETF’s and the major indices, which are updated periodically throughout each week.

 

Fossil, NAS#37-FOSL-(Chart), was up 12.0% as last week’s best performing NASDAQ100 stock. This stock is also down 90.2% since the Indicant’s Feb 2015 sell signal. Last week’s bullishness for this stock was bad money chasing more bad money. This Yellow Bear is jaundiced. Last week’s jump was a computer program, as opposed to sound fundamental judgment. The worse performing NASDAQ100 stock was Expedia, NAS#69-EXPE-(Chart). It was down 17.9% last week, while still being up 103.2% since the Indicant’s Jul 2016 buy signal. Although last week’s drop was harsh, it remains disqualified for a sell signal.

 

Twitter, ISTK#54-TWTR-(Chart), was up 21.5% last week, as this group of stocks biggest winner. It is also up 31.2% since the Indicant’s Dec 2017 buy signal. This stock may not be proving the worth of marketing and branding, as it is a Red Bull, whose bullish leg correlates well with the U.S. president touting its effectiveness in blowing off steam. This group’s big loser was Patterson U, ISTK#84-PTEN-(Chart), falling 21.7% last week. A sell signal was triggered due to it falling below Yellow with bearish force.

 

Cisco, DJIA#12-CSCO-(Chart), was the best performing Dow30 stock, if you want to call it as a performer. None of the Dow30 stocks were up last week. Cisco simply fell by the least amount, dropping 3.4%. Despite last week’s Cisco bearishness, it is up 48.9% since the Indicant’s Feb 2016 buy signal. It remains a Red Bull and thus continued holding is appropriate. The most bearish Dow30 stock was Exxon-Mobil, DJIA#28-XOM-(Chart), dropping 10.0%. A sell signal was triggered due to it renewing Yellow Bear status.

 

Southern Co, DJU#04-SO-(Chart), was up 0.4% last week as the most bullish Dow Utility stock. Despite last week’s bullishness, it remains down 1.1% since the Indicant’s Jan 12, 2018 sell signal. Continue avoiding this Yellow Bear even though this is among the best managed utility companies. The big Dow Utility loser was AES, DJU#05-AES-(Chart), falling 8.2%. It endured a new Mid-term Indicant sell signal. This stock is again a Yellow Bear and continues expressing an inability to escape the wrath of the 2007-2008 stock market bear.

 

Pro Funds NASDAQ100 Ultra Short, MF#22-USPIX-(Chart), was up 9.6% as the most bullish fund among those tracked by the Mid-term Indicant. However, it is down 98.5% since the Indicant’s Apr 2009 sell signal. This fund is purely contrarian and nowhere near qualifying for a buy signal. Fidelity Energy Services, MF#40-FSESX-(Chart), was down 10.9% as the worse performing fund last week. It also endured a sell signal by returning to Yellow Bear status.

 

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Last Ten Years

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows in this section. It highlights historical performance since 2002. Simply scroll down the webpage to see graphical and detail content of this section. The below describes the same for the past ten years. If a particular year interests you, click this sentence, which will show you all of the prior weekly reports dating back to 2002 along with Indicant performance levels at the time of those reports. From there, you can click the year of interest and then to the specific time-period you are interested in.

 

The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signals and 22-sell signals this weekend. Clicking this sentence will display them on the website.

 

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 261 of the 321-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. Stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 192.5% that annualizes to 41.1%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 261-stocks and funds for an average of 243.6-weeks. There have been 15-buy signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.

 

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 38-stocks and funds of 321-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 37.0% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 154.4-weeks ago. There have been 25-sell signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.

 

One year ago, on Feb 10, 2017 the Mid-term Indicant was holding 260-stocks and funds of the 302-tracked for an average of 195.4-weeks. They were up by an average of 160.7% (annualized at 42.8%). There were 41-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down by an average of 20.4% since their respective sell signals an average of 84.2-weeks earlier, one year ago. There was one buy signal and no sell signals on this weekend in 2017. There had been 14-buy signals and no sell signals for the year through this weekend in 2017.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 191-stocks on Feb 12, 2016. They were up 149.5% since their buy signals an average of 235.5-weeks earlier. There were 146-avoided stocks on this weekend since their sell signals an average of 51.2-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and one sell signal on this weekend in 2016. There had been only three buy signals and 58-sell signals through this weekend in 2016. Polls favored Hillary Clinton throughout most of this year’s election cycle. That confronted the stock market bull and encouraged the stock market bear. Presidential candidate, Hillary Clinton, once said she would take corporate profits and do something better with the money was not only laughable, but seriously confronted the stock market bull.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 289-stocks and funds of the 338-tracked on Feb 13, 2015. They were up by an average of 148.1%, annualizing at 39.3%, since their respective buy signals an average of 195.8-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 46-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 13.1% since their respective sell signals an average of 61.7-weeks earlier. There was two buy signals and one sell signal on this weekend in 2015. There were three year-to-date buy signals and 12-sell signals at this time of year in 2015. This presidential pre-election year was somewhat uneventful and tame, following unusually strong post-election year bullishness in 2013 and a flat 2014-mid-term presidential election year.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 311-stocks and funds of the 338-tracked on Feb 7, 2014. They were up by an average of 106.5%, annualizing at 37.4%, since their respective buy signals an average of 148.0-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 25-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 23.5% since their respective sell signals an average of 73.3-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and two sell signals on this weekend in 2015.

 

There were 299-stocks and funds with hold signals of the 338-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant on Feb 8, 2013 since their buy signals an average of 109.6-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 76.1% (annualized at 42.1%). There were 37-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 42.1% from their respective sell signals an average of 109.8-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and two sell signals on this weekend in 2013. There had been 24-buy signals and five sell signals through this weekend in 2013. This was an impressively bullish year, as sequestration inspired the stock market bull along an accelerated growth plane. Although sequestered spending was minimal, the underlying principles of handcuffing the irrationality of politicians inspired the stock market bull.

 

 

On Feb 10, 2012, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 303-stocks and funds out of 323-tracked. They were up by an average of 59.6% (annualized at 42.3%) since their buy signals an average of 73.2-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 31-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 37.7% since their sell signals an average of 72.7-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and no sell signals on this weekend in 2012. There had been 68-buy signals and four-sell signals through this weekend in 2012.

 

On Feb 11, 2011, there were 289-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 336-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 45.8%, annualizing at 51.6% since their respective buy signals an average of 53.7-weeks earlier. There were 43-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 46.1% since their respective sell signals an average of 115.3-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and three sell signals on this weekend in 2011. There had been two buy signals and 3-sell signals through this weekend in 2011.

           

On Feb 12, 2010, there were 215-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 317-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 24.0%, annualizing at 34.3%, since their respective buy signals an average of 36.4-weeks earlier. There were 99-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 32.8% since their sell signals an average of 87.6-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and three sell signals on this weekend in 2010, totaling 14-buy signals and eleven-sell signals through this weekend in 2010. The stock market shifted to strong bullishness in August 2010 at the obviation of democrats losing the House of Representatives. This is an example of the stock market’s ability to “anticipate,” as opposed to being reactionary to the “news.”

 

There were 22-stocks and funds with hold signals on Feb 13, 2009. The Mid-term Indicant was tracking 344-stocks and funds at that time. Those with hold signals were up by an average of 111.9%, annualizing at 63.0%, since their buy signals an average of 36.8-weeks earlier. The 322-avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 34.5% since their respective sell signals an average of 36.8-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2009. There had been 8-buy signals and 19-sell signals through this weekend in 2009.

 

On Feb 8, 2008, there were 155-stocks and funds with hold signals, enjoying an average gain of 171.7% since their respective buy signals an average of 154.5-weeks earlier. That annualized at 57.7%. There were 345-stocks and funds tracked at that time. There were 188-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 9.6% since their sell signals an average of 14.2-weeks earlier. There was one buy signal and one sell signal on this weekend in 2008. There had been nine year-to-date buy signals and 96-YTD sell signals through this weekend in 2008. This was the year of the great stock market crash, as phony political leadership do what they do. And then their little, but selfish, three-pound brains, blame the crash on big business and capitalism, despite them being 100% responsible for the fiasco. The stock market bear was accelerating its dominance in early 2008 with a few false bounces from phony governmental interventions and the profound stupidity from their “too big to fail” paradigm. Delaying the inevitable only worsens its magnitude at the “real” conclusion of stupidity’s chaos.

 

On Feb 9, 2007, there were 312-stocks and funds with hold signals of the 345-tracked by the Indicant at that time. They were up by an average of 111.6% since their buy signals an average of 92.9-weeks earlier, annualizing at 62.5%. There were 32-avoided stocks and funds since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 19.5-weeks earlier. The avoided stocks and funds were down by an average of 11.1% at that time. There were no buy signals and one sell signal on this weekend in 2007. There had been seven-year-to-date buy signals and 18-YTD sell signals through this weekend in 2007. Democrats and their socialistic agenda were the new majority of the incoming Congress that year. The stock market bull performed okay during the first half of 2007. The socialistic agenda started to take its toll on the capital markets in the summer of 2007. After six months of democratic control of the U.S. Senate, the U.S. House with liberal leaning George W. Bush, the stock market peaked in 2007.

           

The above performance reflects status at the time of the updates. Abandoned securities have no impact to the above performance statistics and the historical report card. They always represent status at the time of that status and never changes. When securities become NLT (no longer traded), their performance levels are excluded from the report card at the time they become NLT. There are no retroactive adjustments. The number of stocks and funds tracked from week to week may differ because they are no longer traded or listed on major stock exchanges.

 

The Indicant started retaining records of abandoned stocks and funds in 2012. There are advantages of retaining records by expressing the consequences of an organization employing dilettante management and related corporate leeching. All organizations eventually expire. The primary causes of such expirations are corporate leeching, stupidity, and arrogance (without cause). {Note: the same is true of governments that fall prey to either economic leeching (FDR) and/or excessive egomaniacal behavior by its leaders (Hitler)}. Click here to see abandoned securities.

 

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals

Buying and selling have been limited for the past few years, as the bull’s perseverance has prevented a bear market for quite some time. That reduces the number of stocks in temporary decline to earn new buy signals since they are enjoying hold signals. Although Mid-term attributes are not strongly bullish, the stock market bear has been unable to gain traction with only minor pestering the past nine years. It is very possible for that to continue for seven to nine more years. Last week’s bearishness is currently configured a merely profit taking.

 

Clicking this sentence will take you to this weekend’s Mid-term Indicant buy/sell signals.

   

The Short-term Indicant signals buy and sell for ETF’s, daily, provided the ETF’s enjoy a buy signal or endure a sell signal. They are not included in the Mid-term Indicant summaries. These short-term models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts, while the Mid-term Indicant includes fundamentals and longer-term technical data to reject short-term trader nervousness. The Daily Stock Market Report reports status for the short-term model.

 

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 232.0% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 517.0% and the S&P500 is up 237.2% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 428.8% since October 9, 2002.

 

The NASDAQ was bullish by 0.8% through this weekend in 2001’s presidential post-election year. It finished 2001 down by 21.1%, which was congruent with the standards of post-election-year-bearishness. As many of you recall, the markets succumbed to the stock market bear during the most part of 2001.

 

The NASDAQ was down 6.7% through this weekend in 2002’s mid-term election-year. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The NASDAQ stock market bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with historical standards of finding bottoms during mid-term election years. It fell over 80% from its all-time high on March 9, 2000 by late 2002.

 

The NASDAQ was down 4.0% on this weekend in 2003’s presidential pre-election year. It finished 2003 up by 50.0%, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results, despite the start of the Iraq war in March of that year. It was up on this weekend in 2004 by 3.0% in the meandering bear market of 2004 that dampened bullish enthusiasm, but the NASDAQ finished 2004’s presidential pre-election year up by 8.6%. This was congruent with presidential election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards.

 

It was down 5.6% on this weekend in 2005’s post-election year, which was consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains during post-election years. It finished up by 1.4% in 2005. This was an excellent year, based on post-election year historical standards of bearishness. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets. Some of you recall a new bullish cycle originated in August 2005 that carried through until mid-2007. The stock market enjoyed that nice bullish ride, following the meandering bear market of 2004 through Aug 2005.

           

In 2006, the NASDAQ was up 2.3% on this weekend. It finished up in 2006 by 9.5%, which maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year.

 

The NASDAQ was up 2.3% through this weekend in 2007, finishing that year up by 9.8%. The stock market peaked in 2007 from the 2003-bull leg after democrats took control of Congress in early 2007. George W. went along with them as opposed to repelling them. That inspired the stock market bear and added depth to its decline. Of course, the housing bubble contributed. Politicians originated it, like many adverse economic conditions.

 

The NASDAQ was down by 13.1% on this weekend in 2008. It finished 2008 down by 40.5%. That was extreme contrarian performance to the standards of historical election year bullishness. The overall stock market endured the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832. The history from 1832 used other indices until the DJIA’s inception in 1896.

                       

It was up 0.9% on this weekend in 2009, while finishing that year up by 43.9%. Keep in mind, the extraordinary bullish cycle in 2009 finished that year down by 20.6 % from its prior weekly cyclical peak on October 31, 2007. The 2008 bear market more accurately reflected economic fundamentals than the 2009 bull market. Much of the 2009 bull market correlated well with declining political popularity.

 

The NASDAQ was down 5.2% on this weekend in 2010. It finished that year up by 16.9%, which was consistent with mid-term election year bullishness; especially in the second half of such years. The stock market was explosively bullish through the mid-term election year when it was obvious the Republicans would regain control of the House and possibly the Senate.

 

It was up 5.1% on this weekend in 2011. Unfortunately, the NASDAQ finished 2011 down by 7.3%. Some prior reports errantly stated the NASDAQ finished up in 2011. The S&P500 finished flat in 2011 while the DJIA finished up by 5.5% that year. This was an unusual conclusion for a presidential pre-election year. The enhancement of socialism and the threat of communism confused the stock market.

           

The NASDAQ was up 12.4% on this weekend in 2012, finishing that year up by 15.9%, which was classically bullish for the presidential election year. One reason for its bearish tail in the second half of that year was the re-election of the incumbent president. Four more years of incumbency invites exponential increases in corruption with expanded economic turmoil.  

 

It was up 5.8% on this weekend in 2013, finishing that normally bearish presidential post-election year up by a whopping 38.3%. Extraordinary stock market bullishness in 2013 correlated well with sequestration. The Dow and S&P500 closed out 2013 up by 26.5% and 29.6%, respectively, and diabolically opposed to a long history of presidential post-election year bearishness. Politically contributing elements were 1) sequestration and 2) continuing democratic losses at the city, county, state, and federal levels. Fortunately, communistic orations by the democratic party were repulsed by an increasingly number of smarter voters after their profound stupidity in the 2006-mid-term elections, allowing the democrats a majority in both the house and senate.  

           

The NASDAQ was down 1.2% in 2014, finishing that year up 13.4% even though starting out the year very slowly and enduring some significant near-term bearish cycles throughout 2014. The presidential use of executive orders countered normal stock market bullishness that usually accompanies political partisanship. The executive branch may undo the political cycle model if constitutional breeches accelerate. Obama’s successor could use an executive order to arrest Obama, Holder, and others for breaking the law and violation their oaths. Of course, aggravating constitutional authority will eventually erode the designed intention of the founding fathers. Human kind will regret it, but will be too stupid to recognize their culpability in their economic decline.

.                                                                                                                                                                     8

The NASDAQ was up 0.2% on this weekend in 2015. It finished 2015 up by 5.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 2.2% for the first bearish conclusion in a presidential pre-election year since 1939.

 

The NASDAQ was down 14.8% in on this weekend in 2016 with polls suggesting Hillary Clinton as the obvious president elect. It finished 2016 up by 7.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 13.4% due, primarily, to a late year bullish explosion on the defeat of Hillary Clinton for the presidency and continued erosion of the democratic party.

 

The NASDAQ was up 6.2% on this weekend in 2017, finishing that presidential post-election year up by 28.2% with Donald Trump’s first year as president. Deregulating and undoing prior political damage to the economy is causation to that profound bullishness.

 

The Dow is down 2.1% this year. The S&P500 is down 2.0% for the year and the NASDAQ is down 0.4% this year. The S&P600 is down 3.6% this year.  The Dow Transports is down 4.5% this year, while the worse loser, Dow Utilities, is down 8.6% this year.

 

The Dow is up 70.8% since its prior weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is up 140.4% since its last cyclical peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P500 is          up 67.4% since its Oct 9, 2007 peak. The 2007 peaks coincide with political coziness in Washington D.C., which solidified in early 2007, as George W. Bush’s liberal tendencies melded well with the newly elected socialistic leaning congress with a similar fiscal liberalism and the dangerous practice of fascism.

 

All major indices are holding above their 2007-peaks. The Dow Utilities was the last of the major indices to return to 2007-peak levels. It took about seven years to do so, but fell back below its 2007-peak in early Jan 2016. It is again above its Jul 19, 2007-peak by 19.6%.

 

The NASDAQ is above its 2000-peak by 36.2%. The NASDAQ100 finally crossed above its March 2000 all-time high on Nov 6, 2015, fell below shortly thereafter, and then crossed back above that peak on Jul 29, 2016. It also fell below that peak weekending Sep 9, 2016 and again crossing back above its March 24, 2000 peak on weekending Sep 16, 2016. It is again above that peak by 36.3%. The S&P100 finally toppled its Mar 23, 2000 peak on May 2, 2013. It is now above that peak by 39.2%.

 

Although exact simultaneous bottoming did not occur on March 9, 2009, tracking from that pivot-point has been and will continue to be appropriate. This inexactness lends credence to the reverse tangential projections with a short-term view and increasingly so. Consequently, March 9, 2009 is the pivot date to monitor performance since the March 2009 bottoming from the 2007-2008 bear cycle. When prices fall below reverse tangential projections, new pivot points will be defined.

 

The Dow is up 269.5% since March 9, 2009, which is the “bottoming” pivot date from the great bear market of 2007/8. The NASDAQ is up 441.9% and the S&P500 is up 259.9% since then. The S&P600, Small Cap Index, is up 396.6% since March 9, 2009. That March 2009-current bull leg was indeed powerful, but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth. The Federal Reserve may be held in check by fearing Trump tweets and not accelerate rate increases during his first term. So far, the Fed remains passive, but recent rate hikes offer some arguments against being passive.           

 

The stock market bull is usually aroused and significantly so when congress and the president are at odds. This leads to a “do-nothing” government, which is usually bullish. The only positive economic contribution politicians can do is undoing their prior damage and the damage caused by their predecessors. The bullishness that occurs during do-nothing periods is due to the absence of additional economic damage by politicians. It will be interesting if a republican administration with a republican congress can upset 180-years of being bearish when those two bodies agree. So far, they are in disagreement and more or less disallowing an undoing of prior political damage. That dispute may indeed prevent resumption of more political damage. Also, Trump is having some success in deregulation, which is always bullish.

 

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

 

Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for several years, do not fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it does change. The markets, both free and controlled, are not constant. A massive bear market, depending on the magnitude of combined interest rates and inflation, will eventually occur. The more politicians attempt to generate the markets as a constant, the less constant they become. The combined absolute value of interest rates, inflation/deflation remain less than 8.0% and thus no related threat of depressed economic behavior now. That is a temporary condition.

 

The reported CPI remains relatively healthy, while the PPI is no longer mildly threatening. Always keep in mind, publicly generated information can be biased for political purposes, as opposed to simply publishing accurate information. The manifestation of “making America great again” can be inflationary. However, a simplified tax code could be offsetting to that threat.

 

The Prime Rate, Discount Rate, and Effective Rate increased 25-basis points on week-ending Dec 15, 2017, following similar increases on week-endings Dec 23, 2016, Mar 17, 2017, and Jun 15, 2017. You should notice the spike in the 3-month T-Bill shortly after Trump’s election. The 2020-mean forecast continues escaping from its prior near zero projections.  Rates remain at low levels and thus not yet impeding economic growth. They are indeed becoming more aggressive, however.

 

The Federal Reserve’s Quarter 2, 2017 promise of being passive on rate hikes is now being challenged with noticeable increases in interest rates. The 3-Month T-Bill remains low and non-threatening to the stock market bull, despite recent rate hike aggression. There is a future point where its rise will punish the stock market bull. If the Fed slows future rate hikes and OPEC has their way with increasing oil prices, inflationary pressures will also be unfriendly to the stock market bull.

 

The Euro remains with Red Bull status, arguing with its ten-year bearish trend. It, like most other currencies, strengthened with Yellen’s Quarter 2, 2017 strategy. The 2020-mean forecast is at $1.18 with more aggressive intrinsic modeling, projecting $0.35. The Canadian dollar fell below the zone of neutrality on weekending Jul 15, 2017 with its strengthening. It returned to the neutral zone in late October 2017 and fell back into its zone of strengthening. Its 2020-mean forecast is $1.30CA with projected polynomials forecasting much weaker values exceeding $2.50CA to $1.96CA.

           

The Japanese Yen statistical mean forecast is at 110-yen/dollar by 2020 while the aggressive polynomials are projecting a range of 185-165-Yen/U.S. dollar. It remains in a tight trading pattern within the zone of neutrality, expressing an inability to change its strengthening. The British Pound returned to Yellow Bear status in mid-June 2016 with the BREXIT vote. However, it moved above Yellow on week-ending May 5, 2017 and crossed into Red Bull Status on Sep 14, 2017, as the U.S. Dollar continued weakening even against this weak currency. It no longer struggling in holding its Red Bull status, as it continues to gain strength. Its 2020 statistical mean forecast is at $1.29 with more aggressive polynomials, projecting around $0.79 by Dec 31, 2020.

 

The Bitcoin toppled $16,000 on most exchanges in late 2017 in skyrocketing fashion. It has weakened since then. Although historical data is limited, it remains a Red Bull, barely, even though it has declined and remains in the $8000-$9000 range.   

                       

Gold regained Red Bull status on Jan 16, 2018. Fed passiveness in their rate hikes and the corresponding weakening dollar is encouraging bullish potential for gold. The 2020-mean forecast is $1,298/oz. while the more aggressive polynomials are projecting a 2020 value approximating $685-708/oz. You can keep up with an approximation of this on the Indicant Daily Stock Market Report by tracking ETF#11-GLD.

 

Oil returned to Red Bull status on Oct 5, 2017 and continuing bullishly since then. Its rise is congruent with inflationary themes going forward. The 2020-intrinsic and aggressive polynomial forecast ranges from $0 to $0. That is correct, but like all forecast, it is erroneous. The 2020-statistical mean forecast is at $49/bbl.

 

The CRB Bridge Futures regained Red Bull status on Nov 23, 2017 after succumbing to the Yellow Bear on weekending Jun 10, 2017. It appears to be escaping a long period of flatness with a bit more bullish aggression the past few weeks. The 2020 mean forecast is at $189, while the more aggressive polynomials are forecasting zero by 2020.

 

Mortgage rates abandoned Yellow Bear status on Nov 3, 20 16 with a sharp rise to the enjoyment of Red Bull status for lenders and not for those desiring home ownerships. On Nov 25, 2016, it lost that Red Bull status. Mortgage rates have since regained Red Bull status with momentum in their bullish configurations and more or less skyrocketing.

 

The consumer price index and producer price index are computing without the combined absolute value of threatening interest rates and inflation or deflation of 8%. Considerations of deflationary threats are not out of line, though. Fortunately, there are millions around the world willing to work and be consumptive. With that, the strong may offset the weak.         

 

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant again signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010, but had to signal sell on Dec 16, 2011 for a disappointing loss of around 15%. It endured another disappointing loss of 9.7% between the Jan 27, 2012 buy signal and the Mar 16, 2012 sell signal. It again endured a sell signal on Feb 8, 2013, as it fell below its short-term green curve. It was down 30.9% since that Feb 2013 sell signal, when it enjoyed a buy signal on May 6, 2016. It endured a sell signal on Nov 25, 2016, after moving up 10% from that sell signal. That triggered a buy signal on Jan 13, 2017. It is down 7.6% since then.

 

Fidelity Gold Fund #28 also enjoyed a buy signal on Jan 13, 2017. It is down 9.6% since then. The above Vanguard fund usually outperforms this one.

 

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, enjoyed a buy signal on Oct 13, 2017 and down 3.3% since then, annualizing at 13.2%.

 

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, endured a sell signal on Feb 9, 2018. It is flat since then.

 

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, endured a buy signal on Feb 8, 2018. It is down flat since then.

 

Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, enjoyed a buy signal on Dec 29, 2017 and down 9.8% since then.

 

The Quick-term and Near-term Indicant signaled buy for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Sep 14, 2017. It is down 4.0% since then.      

           

The Near-term and Quick-term Indicant again signaled buy for GLD-ETF#11-Gold on Dec 22, 2017. It is up 3.1% since then, annualizing at 23.1%.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.    

 

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling bull for nine of the 10-major indices. Bullish unanimity remains absent. The existing bulls are up by an average of 37.5% since their bull signals an average of 98.3-weeks ago, annualizing at 19.8%. There is one Mid-term Indicant bear. It is down 5.7% since its bear signal 5.0-weeks ago.

 

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $66.389-million. That beats buy and hold performance of $3.626-million on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $3.276-million. That beats buy and hold’s $1.542-million on a Jan 6, 1950 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $1.941-million. That beats buy and hold’s $687,449 on a Jan 29, 1971 $10,000 investment.  The MTI-Dow Transports is at $35.187-million. That is better than buy and hold $725,754 since a $10,000 investment on Oct 19, 1928. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1,730.8%, 112.4%, 182.3%, and 4,748.3%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

 

There are two reasons why the Dow Transports is included in the above summary. It is used by the Dow Theory Forecast, which has merit, albeit slowly. The second reason is the statistical friendliness and its near-perfect sinusoidal waves. It tends to stay committed to its underlying cycle of bullishness or bearishness more than other indices.

 

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals. The Indicant’s advantage only occurs during bear signals.

 

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks  

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history. Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

 

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 98.5% since then. Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy and hold during 2009, 2013, and 2017, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation, for the most part, in those three presidential post-election years. Polls and recent elections are highlighting left leaning political movements. Although their accuracy is indeed questionable, a return to politburo wannabes in congress will offer this fund and others like it, profound growth opportunities at some future point, but not right now.

 

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

 

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

 

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

 

The Dow is up 735.7% (annualized at 27.9%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,371-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

 

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

 

The next section is the last daily stock market report for this past week

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Archives

{Repeated here are from the last trading day’s daily stock market report from the previous week. Click this link to see all the daily reports from the last 12-months. Retaining here in the weekly report allows for longer retention periods of the daily stock market reports that describe the short-term cycle at the end of each week}.

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Summary

Fri-Feb 9-Volume correlations are increasingly displaying support for more stock market bearishness, but the Quick-term cycle is displaying resistance. For example, ETF#24-IWN-(Chart) and ETF#25-DVY-(Chart) quickly recoiled off Yellow following their sell signals. Volume correlations typically trump other technical attributes. Even though volume is supportive of more stock market bearishness, it is not dynamically so and no where near the obviations in late 2007 and early 2008 of strong stock market bearishness. Despite that positive note, a bear is a bear and the Indicant does not care about the magnitude. The Weekly Stock Market Report will expand from microscopic details to a telescopic overview of how the stock market stands at this point.

 

Thu-Feb 8-Yesterday’s comment about more short-term bearishness did not take long to manifest with today’s strong stock market bearishness. Although recent bearishness is discerning, it remains with technical orientation, as opposed to strong fundamental bearishness.

 

The NASDAQ has now fallen to just above the lower leg of the Trump bull band. Click this sentence for an appropriate perspective. Technically, that means recent bullishness is of minor concern even though discerning to many. Anyone investing on the eve of Trump’s election in early November 2016 would be elated with the market where it is today, despite the NASDAQ’s 729-point drop in the past two weeks.

 

Contrarian ETN#32-VXX-( Chart) crossed above Yellow with bullish force and pressure, earning a Quick-term Indicant buy signal for the first time in several months. There were four non-contrarian Quick-term Indicant sell signals. In other words, they are now Yellow Bears with bearish force and bearish pressure. Those new bears expired Quick-term Bulls that were two years old, which were extraordinarily mature.

 

Wed-Feb 7-All non-contrarian force vectors continue moving bearishly, despite bullish rebounds and settling. That means the stock market’s bias remains bearish along the near-term cycle. Writers of put options are having to buy, as prices crashed to and significantly below their strike prices. That applied false bullishness. Once those contracts are executed, more selling pressure would not be surprising.

 

Tue-Feb 6-Today’s bullish bounce is common for stock market corrections, as opposed to an on-going bear. Attempts to bring down the president and inflationary fears offer fundamental merit. The former can be traced to mainstream media polluting wandering and near-empty brains that are allowed to vote with fictional orations and ink. For example, the mainstream idiots are claiming Trump tax cuts are hallow. What an interesting use of the word, hallow. Rest assured there is no such thing as a hallow tax cut. Granted tax cuts can be inflationary if there are no spending cuts. The paradox is that those claiming tax cuts are hallow are the same ones who promote more spending and argue against spending cuts. Now, 95-IQ folks can see through the malarkey, but as you can see nearly every day, 95-IQ and above people are dwindling in the United States and the problem is that the dumb can and do vote. Inflationary concerns dissipated today with gold prices falling on overall strong stock market bullishness. That one data point argues in favor of deep state shenanigans as causation for stock market nervousness. With only one data point, deep state causation is arguable, but the correlation at this point is inarguable. Interest rates are still too low, albeit rising, to be a real concern at this point. Finally, the key attribute to monitor is force vector behavior and more importantly how they behave when they cross above vector pressure. It this stock market volatility is a normal correction, that behavior should be observable next week. The Mid-term Indicant this coming weekend will have more insight into stock market prognosis.

 

Mon-Feb 5-Volume was up on today’s strong stock market bearishness, but not excessively so. There are fear elements; inflation, Fed rate hikes, and the deep state. The last one is similar to third world countries. Stock markets are not bullish in banana republics. All three fear elements are justification for profit taking. Nearly all non-contrarian ETF’s endured sell signals today, while all non-contrarian indices endured new bear signals. With that, the market is now enduring near-term bearish unanimity with contrarian VIX-(Chart) enjoying the lone near-term bull signal. It was up over 115% today. ETF#11-GLD-(Chart) was unaffected with today’s bearish aggression, suggesting more of a fear in inflation, as opposed to increased interest rates. Statistics show strong bullishness in holdings due to most non-contrarians enjoying a hold signal from last week’s buy signals.

 

Please review the below sections for more insight.

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

 

Index Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bull and no new bears.

 

Number of Near-term Bulls: 1 of 12

Duration of Near-term Bulls: 1.6-wks-avg.

Near-term Bull Performance: 108.5%; Annualized Performance: 3,591.2%

 

Number of Near-term Bears: 11 of 12

Average Duration of Near-term Bears: 1.4-wks. avg.

Near-term Bears Average Performance: -2.2%

Configured Advantage: Near-term Stock Market Bear, effective Feb 5, 2018.

           

Near-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses  

Near-term Indicant Configured Bullish Blue Bulls: 1 of 12

Near-term Indicant Configured Bearish Green Bears: 11 of 12

Position Advantage: Near-term Stock Market Bear, effective Feb 5, 2018.

 

Index Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

                                               

Number of Quick-term Bulls: 11 of 12                                 

Average Duration of Quick-term Bulls: 87.6-wks.

Quick-term Bull Performance: 42.6%; Quick-term Annualized Performance: 25.3%

 

Number of Quick-term Bears: 1 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term: Bears: 5.1-weeks-avg.

Quick-term Bear Performance: -5.6%

 

Quick-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1 of 12 

Configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 1 of 12

Configured Advantage: Quick-term Stock Market Bull effective Nov 7, 2016

           

Short-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Non-contrarian force vectors in bullish domains: 0 of 11

Non-contrarian force vectors higher than vector pressure: 0 of 11

Non-contrarian vector pressure in bullish domains: 0 of 11 

Non-contrarian force vectors with bullish direction: 0 of 11                        

Non-contrarian vector pressure with bullish direction: 0 of 11

Advantage: Short-term Stock Market Bear, effective Feb 7, 2018. Despite market settling, force continues moving bearishly. Pressure now purely bearish. Much work needs to be accomplished by stock market bull to simply return to neutral.

 

Indicant Volume Indicators

Fri-Feb 9-Again higher volume on strong stock market bullishness, but at half the magnitude of prior day bearishness. That suggests continuing caution with a near-term and short-term cycle focus. Both Indicant Volume Indicators moved bullishly and into the domain of high interest during recent stock market bearishness. That favors the stock market bear.

 

Thu-Feb 8-Although volume was higher, it was not abnormally higher and thus unsupportive of dynamic bearishness. So far, volume continues recent bearishness is simply shaking out the wrong sided short-term traders.

 

Wed -Feb 7-Above recent pre-bearish volume on mild stock market bearishness favors the stock market bear along the near-term cycle.

 

Tue-Feb 6-Significantly higher volume on strong stock market bullishness suggests bargain hunting after Monday’s selloff. However, too many short-term attributes remain in favor of the stock market bear along the near-term cycle.

 

Mon-Feb 5-Volume was up on today’s strong stock market bearishness, but not excessively so. There are fear elements; inflation, Fed rate hikes, and the deep state. Stock markets are not bullish in banana republics, which is what a deep state brings you. A few in the political elite think their desires are much more important than yours.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

ETF Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 5-ETF’s. Those enjoying hold signals are up by an average of 19.1% since their buy signals an average of 6.7-weeks ago, annualizing at 148.4%. These holds are contrarian securities.

 

The NTI is avoiding 27-ETFs. They are down by an average of 2.0% since their sell signals 0.9-weeks ago.

 

Near-term ETF Cycle Analyses

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 2

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 1

 

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 0

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 1

 

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 1

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 26      

 

Advantage: Near-term stock market bear, as of Feb 5, 2018.

 

ETF Quick-term Report Card Summary    

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

                       

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 24-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 31.1% since their buy signals an average of 75.6-weeks ago. That annualizes at 21.4%.                                                                                                                                                                

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding eight ETFs. They are down by an average of 8.8% since their sell signals an average of 12.7-weeks ago.                                                          

         

Quick-term ETF Cycle Analyses         

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 2

 

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 0

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 1

 

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 2

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 3    

 

Advantage: Quick-term stock market bull, effective Nov 7, 2016, but very close to losing that support.

 

Reverse Tangential Projections

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections.

 

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

Other links:     

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the S&P500 Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Understanding Content on the Short-term Indicant Charts

 

Indicant Conclusion

Force vectors are increasing their support for non-bullish stock market behavior, which could include influence the stock market bear. Vector pressure is also moving in a bearish direction. If you enjoy stock market bulls, you do not want to see vector pressure fall into bearish domains. Fundamentally, the deep state and congressional OPM disease could frustrate the stock market bull for the next several months.

           

Click this sentence to keep up with the Short-term Indicant.

 

Click this sentence to maintain stock market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.

 

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.

 

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

 

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

 

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc., click the following hyperlink:

 

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm 

 

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the web site so you can always find your way back.

 

Stop Loss Management

This was moved to the bottom of this report as its content rarely changes. You will be notified when stop losses should be tightened or loosened.

 

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized capital gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the greater value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences.

 

For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

 

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying. Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

 

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

 

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

 

Happy Investing,

 

www.indicant.net

02/11/2018

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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