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Nov 4, 2018 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 11, Issue 01 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

  

Last Week’s Bullish Stock Market Questions

The heart and soul of bearish seasonality has ended along the calendar. It typically ends on week #43 each year. This past week was week #43. It is the last week where the five-week rolling average is bearish since 1900. Historically, all weeks are historically bullish after week #43 until week#21 of the following year, which will next occur on week-ending May 24, 2019. Of course, as you know averages over a long period of time are not an accurate forecast.

 

Stock market bearishness this year fit very well with the heart and soul of bearish seasonality. As you know, it has not been consistent with historical standards the past few years. However, over the long term, the pattern is very consistent. In the early part of last century, one could argue that seasonal bearishness was attributable to dwindling funds flow into the equity markets with cash drying until harvest yields. Once farmers were paid for their crops, they would start chasing stocks with their surplus cash, pushing the market upward.

 

Week #6 of each year is not bearish, but stands out as barely being bullish along a five week average. It is in a league all by itself surrounding by strongly bullish weeks, ranging from week #43 through week #21 of the following year. The only thing that correlates to that is its proximity of the Presidential State of the Union Address. That is when a politician addresses the country, orating nonsensicality for the most part about nothing. Most of the presidents over the years love to talk about giving things away. They, for the most part, have nothing to give. They have to take from others, but never mention that. Stock market investors have things. Since politicians have nothing to give, investors tend to withdraw, temporarily, around the State of Union. They reason that having more accumulations may be for naught. The correlation is inarguable although the time table is inarguable.

 

We do not have to worry about the State of the Union address right now. The concern right now is a take over of government by communists. The contemporary democratic party is communistic within the current framework of the U.S. Constitution, which they wish to adjust for more massive herding of the masses away from consuming Earth’s resources. For example, they promulgate a single payor system. Politicians do not care about queuing theory. Actually, most do not even understand it, as they are mainly liberal artsy types. Despite their ignorance, a single payor system allows politicians and their elite pals have nice healthcare, while you are herded into a long line where you will have a greater chance of dying before actually seeing a doctor. The idiots who vote for that would be equally punished. With that, ugly human forces would wipe out many over a few hundred years of lunacy, but not without collateral damage.

 

The stock market bull and communism cannot coexist. The battle will be retaining the U.S. Constitution versus future attempts to modify it or perhaps even abolish it. Manifestation of that will take a few years. Stupidity is on the rise. Stupid people do not care about the U.S. Constitution. Most do not even know what it says.

 

The modern-day press and college students highlight human stupidity. The only reason humans are Earth’s superior species is their intellect. However, intellect is not a guarantee. It is an accumulation of human effort over the millennia. However, for the past thousand years or so, not everyone is enjoying the harvest of their own reindeer. There are too many people who eat without hunting their own reindeer. Eating without effort of the kill ruins the human mind.

 

Here’s proof. Contemporary television orators and college students refer to Trump as the next Hitler or Stalin. Those same orators make the same orations the day after their first orations and keep on doing it day after day. If Trump were Hitler or Stalin, they would not be alive after their first oration. They would be captured and immediately executed. Close proof. With that, their orations of crazy comparisons prove their stupidity.

 

Is human lunacy is on the rise? The election of contemporary democrats would highlight American lunacy. This is not the first time, however, American populace lunacy occurred. The most dramatic was in the 1930’s, where American voters returned the massively incompetent FDR to the White House four times, while he extended the Great Depression and then committed America’s sons to their deaths in World War II. FDR wanted war very badly to hide his economic deficiencies. He played the American people and they bit. FDR had no competition on the radio. Fortunately, today, there is plenty of competition over the airways that confront political orations. With that, all this negativity, regarding political evil may not be possible like it was in the 1930’s.

 

The stock market bear is delighted with all this potential negativity. Last week’s stock market bullish should be viewed with suspicion. Here’s why. Take a look at the S&P500-(Chart). It will be used as an example, as all other major indices are similarly configured with the exception of the Dow Utilities-(Chart). Before discussing the S&P500, it is important to understand the Dow Utilities, where bullish hope remains configured. As you can see, the Dow Utilities has been trading in a tight and flat zone. However, its small vacillations have been teetering around Red Bull status. Just as important, you can see on the top of the chart, its force vector and vector pressure have been resisting a dip into bearish domains for the past few months.

 

Now, take a look at the Dow Utilities-(Chart) in 2005-2009. Note the similarity along the flat trading zone around Red Bull between now and then. Now, look at the top of the chart. Its force vector eventually acquiesced to the stock market bear. Many of you recall the Dow Utilities was the last to succumb to the stock market bear in 2008. The market was anticipating the election of Barack Obama, adding to an already bearish cycle since mid-2007, shortly after the democrats resumed control of the U.S. House of Representatives in January 2007.

 

The political spectrum is similar now. Nancy Pelosi could be speaker of the house with Maxine Waters elevated to senior congressional positions. The stock market bull will find those two lunatics in power a bit too unsettling. Bullish bounces in the immediate future should be viewed with suspicion if Tuesday’s elections are unfavorable to the Trump agenda.

 

Now, take a look at the S&P500-(Chart). Notice how its force vector and vector pressure are nosediving deeply into bearish domains and that force is below pressure. Last week’s bullish bounce, following prior week’s new bear signal offers mild hope for the stock market bull. That sort of bullish bounce has happened hundreds of times only to be followed by more stock market bearishness. Of course, sometimes such as bullish bounce is sustained into a long-lasting bull. However, that cannot happen until force shifts back into a bullish direction and crosses above pressure. That has not yet occurred. With that, remain suspicious of any bullish behavior as it will be without merit until force crosses above pressure and even then, more requirements much be configured including Blue Bulls.

 

Next Tuesday’s election will offer more fundamental insight. A communist defeat should inspire the stock market bull, but until force reverses direction and crosses above pressure, all bullish behavior is without sustainability.

 

Mid-term Indicant Status of the Major Indices

The major stock market indices can be accessed by clicking this sentence.

Click this sentence to review how to understand the below terms.

 

Click this sentence to understand the details on the charts.

 

Mid-term Indicant Red Bulls-Click for Explanation1): 7-Red Bulls, 3-Non-Red Bulls

            Comment: Red Bulls remain in the majority. The stock market bear cannot dominate even there is only one Red Bull. The major indices including non-Red Bulls, on average, are above Red by 1.6%, offsetting last week’s average 0.6% below Red.

 

Mid-term Indicant Blue Bulls- Click for Explanation2): 2-Blue Bull, 8-Non-Blue Bulls

            Comment: The Dow Utilities-(Chart)) lost Blue Bull status. However, the S&P500-(Chart) and S&P100-(Chart) enjoying blue bull status serving a bit of comfort. At least Overall, the ten major indices are below Blue by an average of 2.3%.

 

Mid-term Indicant Yellow Bears-Click for Explanation3): 0-Yellow Bears, 10-Non-Yellow Bears

                Comment: Fortunately, none of the major indices are Yellow Bears. Falling to Yellow Bear status requires an average drop, overall, of the ten major indices, of 23.4% from current position. Without Yellow Bears, the stock market bear has difficulty in gaining long-term dominance and the economy is not being threatened. The gap between prevailing prices and the Yellow Bear is too wide to be considered where the next bear signals will occur. The Indicant will not wait for the market to fall 23.4% before signaling bear. Currently, losing Red Bull status is where the next bear signals will occur with the exception of the DJU and DJT, where Green is still below Red. In those two cases, the next bear signal will occur at or below Green. On Oct 12, 2018 the S&P400 endured its first Mid-term Indicant bear signal in nearly three years. The last one was in late 2015, which can be seen by clicking this sentence. On Oct 26, 2018, the S&P500-(Chart), DJT-(Chart), and S&P600-(Chart) endured their first bear signals since Dec 11, 2015, Jun 24, 2016, and Dec 11, 2015, respectively.

 

Mid-term Indicant Green Bears-Click for Explanation4): 3-Green Bears, 7-Non-Green Bears

                Comment: Last week’s bullishness offered a great bounce off of green and reversing last week’s 7-Green Bears. Overall, all ten major indices, including Green Bears, are above Green by 1.2%. This is a bit depressing to the stock market bear.

 

Mid-term Indicant Red to Green Position5): Two Reds Higher than Green; Eight Greens Higher Than Red

                Comment: This attribute continues identifying an overheated bull market. The DJT-(Chart) and the DJU-(Chart) are the only major indices where Green is not above Red. Overall, is 0.8% below Green.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Position6): 1-bullish domains, 9-bearish domains

                Comment: As was the case last week, all but one of the major indices force vectors are now inside bearish domains, offering the stock market bear significant delight. The lone force vector remaining in bullish domains is the Dow Utilities-(Chart), offering a glimmer of hope to the stock market bull.” Despite the DJU being the lone bearish major index last week, its force vector continues resisting a drop into bearish domains.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Relative to Vector Pressure7): 0-above pressure, 10-below pressure

                Comment: This attribute remains supportive of the stock market bear and until some force vectors cross back above their vector pressure curves, do not expect any sustainability by the stock market bull.

 

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Position8): 1-bullish domains, 9-bearish domains

                Comment: Only the DJU remains in bullish domains of the major indices. The stock market bull cannot find sustainability until vector pressure returns to bearish domains.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Direction9): 2-bullish, 8-bearish

                Comment: This attribute remains in strong support of the stock market bear.

           

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Direction10): 1-bullish, 9-bearish

            Comment: This attribute remains supportive of the stock market bear.

 

Click this sentence to review how to understand the above terms.

Click this sentence to understand how to read the charts.

 

Mid-term Indicant Configured Condition of Major Indices: Falling force vectors and vector pressure are the predominant attributes to monitor. Until force shifts back into a bullish direction and crosses above pressure, the stock market bull will not regain and sustain dominance.

 

Whipsawed – Review of Wild Swings Last Week

This section highlights last week’s biggest gainers and losers within each group of stocks and funds tracked by the Mid-term Indicant. The groups are the NASDAQ100- Stocks, the Indicant Selected Stocks (mainly energy and former NASDAQ100 stocks, coded ISTK), the Dow Jones 30-Stocks (DJIA), the Dow Utilities (DJU) and Mutual Funds(MF). The below excludes Short-term Indicant tracking of ETF’s and the major indices, which are updated periodically throughout each week.

 

Flextronics, NAS#66-FLEX-(Chart), was up 22.4% last week as the most bullish NASDAQ100 stock. Despite that bullishness it is still down 30.1% since the Indicant’s Oct 5, 2018 sell signal. This stocks bullish bounce last week did not deter the Yellow Bear it is. Continue avoiding this Yellow Bear. Flir Systems, NAS#56-FLIR-(Chart), was down 13.3% last week as the most bearish NASDAQ100 stock. However, it is up 56.5% since the Indicant’s Nov 2015 buy signal. This stock lost Red Bull status this past week, but still strongly bullish.

 

Red Hat, ISTK#56-RHT-(Chart), was up 47.6% last week as the most bullish stock in this group of stocks. This stock is also up 668.6% since the Indicant’s Jul 2009 buy signal. This stock also lost Red Bull status a few weeks ago. That apparently angered its bullish tendency with a resounding bullish bounce last week. Continue holding this renewed Red Bull. McDermott, ISTK#66-MDR-(Chart), was down 35.1% as the most bearish in this group and down 38.6% since the Indicant’s Oct 19, 2018 sell signal. Continue avoiding this Yellow Bear.

 

Caterpillar, DJIA#17-CAT-(Chart), was up 9.3% as last week’s most bullish Dow30 stock. It is also up 52.4% since the Indicant’s Aug 2016 buy signal. This stock repelled Yellow Bear threats this past week. General Electric, DJIA#02-GE-(Chart), was down 17.8% as the most bearish Dow30 stock. It is also down 64.5% since the Indicant’s Jul 2017 sell signal. Continue avoiding this pathetic Yellow Bear.

 

Williams Co, DJU#11-WMB-(Chart), was up 5.2% as last week’s most bearish Dow Utility stock. It is down 4.1% since the Indicant’s Oct 12, 2018 sell signal. This stock behavior is perplexing. However, it is a Yellow Bear to be avoided. Public Enterprise, DJU#10-PEG-(Chart), was down 2.6% as the most bearish Dow Utility stock last week. It is up, however, by 70.6% since the Indicant’s Jan 2013 buy signal. Despite last week’s bearishness, continue holding this Red Bull.

 

Fidelity Electronics, MF#38-FSELX-(Chart), was up 9.6% as the most bullish mutual fund last week. It is also up 191.5% since the Indicant’s Jul 2009 buy signal. This stock is proudly repelling Yellow Bear threats. Continue holding. Pro Funds Ultra Short of NASDAQ100, MF#22-USPIX-(Chart), was down 3.5% as the most bearish mutual fund and down 98.8% since the Indicant’s Apr 2009 sell signal. Continue avoiding this Yellow Bear.

 

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Last Five Years

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows in this section. It highlights historical performance since 2002. Simply scroll down the webpage to see graphical and detail content of this section. The below describes the same for the past five years. If a particular year interest you, click this sentence, which will show you all of the prior weekly reports dating back to 2002 along with Indicant performance levels at the time of those reports. From there, you can click the year of interest and then to the specific time-period you are interested in. Please note that prior to the Weekly Stock Market Report, dated Aug 12, 2018, ten years of history was replaced with five years of history. Again, historical weekly reports, dating to 2002 remain available on the website. As 2008’s great bear market fades beyond the 10th anniversary, just as the NASDAQ’s 2002 drop of 89% was also no longer reported in 2012, it is no longer necessary to report 2008 here. These historical references, however, do remain on the website. 

 

The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signals and seven sell signals this weekend. Clicking this sentence is where the Mid-term Indicant buy and sell signals are displayed.  

 

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 233 of the 321-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. Stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 221.6% that annualizes to 46.5%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 233-stocks and funds for an average of 247.6-weeks. There have been 73-buy signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.

 

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 81-stocks and funds of 321-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 22.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 75.0-weeks ago. There have been 110-sell signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.

 

One year ago, on Nov 3, 2017 the Mid-term Indicant was holding 267-stocks and funds of the 321-tracked for an average of 229.4-weeks. They were up by an average of 191.9% (annualized at 43.5%). There were 52-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down by an average of 21.3% since their respective sell signals an average of 117.3-weeks earlier, one year ago. There was one buy signal and one sell signal on this weekend in 2017. There had been 75-buy signals and 58-sell signals for the year through this weekend in 2017.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 242-stocks on Nov4, 2016. They were up 144.9% since their buy signals an average of 195.4-weeks earlier, annualizing at 38.6%. There were 51-avoided stocks on this weekend since their sell signals an average of 87.2-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and nine sell signals on this weekend in 2016. There had been 123-buy signals and 98-sell signals through this weekend in 2016. Polls favored Hillary Clinton throughout most of that year’s election cycle. That confronted the stock market bull and encouraged the stock market bear. Presidential candidate, Hillary Clinton, once said she would take corporate profits and do something better with the money. That sort of talk from an economic illiterate in a very significant political position aroused the stock market bear. The stock market bear is especially aroused when such comments stimulate applause from voting lunatics.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 271-stocks and funds of the 338-tracked on Nov 6, 2015. They were up by an average of 157.6%, annualizing at 39.5%, since their respective buy signals an average of 207.5-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 64-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 24.7% since their respective sell signals an average of 84.2-weeks earlier. There were two buy signals and onr sell signals on this weekend in 2015. There were 63-year-to-date buy signals and 89-sell signals at this time of year in 2015. This presidential pre-election year was somewhat uneventful and tame, following unusually strong post-election year bullishness in 2013 and a flat 2014-mid-term presidential election year.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 305-stocks and funds of the 338-tracked on Oct 31, 2014. They were up by an average of 137.1%, annualizing at 39.3%, since their respective buy signals an average of 181.3-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 40-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 19.5% since their respective sell signals an average of 64.6-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2014. There had been a total of 27-buy signals and 40-sell signals through this weekend in 2014. The market was mostly flat that year following the very strong 2013-bull leg that was inspired, in part, by sequestration.

 

There were 313-stocks and funds with hold signals of the 338-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant on Nov 1, 2013 since their buy signals an average of 137.0-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 99.6% (annualized at 37.8%). There were 23-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 31.5% from their respective sell signals an average of 85.6-weeks earlier. There were two buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2013. There had been 89-buy signals and 54-sell signals through this weekend in 2013. This was an impressively bullish year, as sequestration inspired the stock market bull along an accelerated growth plane. Although sequestered spending was minimal, the underlying principles of handcuffing the irrationality of politicians inspired the stock market bull.

 

The above performance reflects status at the time of the updates. Abandoned securities have no impact to the above performance statistics and the historical report card. They always represent status at the time of that status and never changes. When securities become NLT (no longer traded), their performance levels are excluded from the report card at the time they become NLT. There are no retroactive adjustments. The number of stocks and funds tracked from week to week may differ because they are no longer traded or listed on major stock exchanges.     

 

The Indicant started retaining records of abandoned stocks and funds in 2012. There are advantages of retaining records by expressing the consequences of an organization employing dilettante management and related corporate leeching. All organizations eventually expire. The primary causes of such expirations are corporate leeching, stupidity, and arrogance (without cause). {Note: the same is true of governments that fall prey to either economic leeching (FDR) and/or excessive egomaniacal behavior by its leaders (Hitler)}. Click here to see abandoned securities.

 

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals

Buying and selling have been limited for the past few years, as the bull’s perseverance has prevented a solid bear market for nearly ten years. That has been reducing the number of stocks in temporary decline to earn new buy signals since they have been enjoying hold signals for several years. An increase in opportunities may emerge depending on the political spectrum. The Trump agenda will be shut down in the 2018-mid-term elections with Pelosi as House Speaker. That will inspire the stock market bear, which may already be anticipating that. However, continuing with a republican senate, will prevent Trump’s impeachment. Despite that prevention, the stock market bear will be delighted at Pelosi in charge of the House of Representatives. The good news is that Trump will be smart enough to point out that since Pelosi has been in charge, things have worsened which should lead to a clean republican sweep in the 2020-election. That should completely demolish the democratic party. With that, a year and a half of stock market bearishness should elevate buying opportunities around mid-2019, depending on the depth of the baby bear now underway.

 

Clicking this sentence will take you to this weekend’s Mid-term Indicant buy/sell signals.

 

The Short-term Indicant signals buy and sell for ETF’s, almost daily, provided the ETF’s enjoy a buy signal or endure a sell signal. They are not included in the Mid-term Indicant summaries. These short-term models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts, while the Mid-term Indicant includes fundamentals and longer-term technical data to reject short-term trader nervousness. The Daily Stock Market Report reports status for the short-term model.

 

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 246.8% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 560.3% and the S&P500 is up 250.6% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 470.2% since October 9, 2002.

 

The NASDAQ was bearish by 29.3% through this weekend in 2001’s presidential post-election year. It finished 2001 down by 21.1%, which was congruent with the standards of post-election-year-bearishness. As many of you recall, the markets succumbed to the stock market bear during the most part of 2001.

 

The NASDAQ was down 30.2% through this weekend in 2002’s mid-term election-year. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The NASDAQ stock market bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with historical standards of finding bottoms during mid-term election years. It fell over 80% from its all-time high on March 9, 2000 by late 2002.

 

The NASDAQ was up 44,7% on this weekend in 2003’s presidential pre-election year. It finished 2003 up by 50.0%, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results, despite the start of the Iraq war in March of that year. It was down on this weekend in 2004 by 0.9% in the meandering bear market of 2004 that dampened bullish enthusiasm, but the NASDAQ finished 2004’s presidential pre-election year up by 8.6%. This was `congruent with presidential election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards.

 

It was down 1.4% on this weekend in 2005’s post-election year, which was consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains during post-election years. It finished up by 1.4% in 2005. This was an excellent year, based on post-election year historical standards of bearishness. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets. Some of you recall a new bullish cycle originated in August 2005 that carried through until mid-2007. The stock market enjoyed that nice bullish ride, following the meandering bear market of 2004 through Aug 2005.

           

In 2006, the NASDAQ was up 5.8% on this weekend. It finished up in 2006 by 9.5%, which maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year.  

 

The NASDAQ was up 16.4% through this weekend in 2007, finishing that year up by 9.8%. The stock market peaked in 2007 from the 2003-bull leg after democrats took control of Congress in early 2007. George W. went along with them as opposed to repelling them. That inspired the stock market bear and added depth to its decline. Of course, the housing bubble contributed. Politicians originated it, like many adverse economic conditions.

 

The NASDAQ was down by 32.9% on this weekend in 2008. It finished 2008 down by 40.5%. That was extreme contrarian performance to the standards of historical election year bullishness. The overall stock market endured the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832. The history from 1832 used other indices until the DJIA’s inception in 1896.

                       

It was up 29.9% on this weekend in 2009, while finishing that year up by 43.9%. Keep in mind, the extraordinary bullish cycle in 2009 finished that year down by 20.6% from its prior weekly cyclical peak on October 31, 2007. The 2008 bear market more accurately reflected economic fundamentals than the 2009 bull market. Much of the 2009 bull market correlated well with declining political popularity.

 

The NASDAQ was up 11.1% on this weekend in 2010. It finished that year up by 16.9%, which was consistent with mid-term election year bullishness; especially in the second half of such years. The stock market was explosively bullish through the mid-term election year when it was obvious the Republicans would regain control of the House and possibly the Senate.

 

It was down 0.5% on this weekend in 2011. Unfortunately, the NASDAQ finished 2011 down by 7.3%. Some prior reports errantly stated the NASDAQ finished up in 2011. The S&P500 finished flat in 2011 while the DJIA finished up by 5.5% that year. This was an unusual conclusion for a presidential pre-election year. The enhancement of socialism and the threat of communism confused the stock market.

           

The NASDAQ was up 15,6% on this weekend in 2012, finishing that year up by 15.9%, which was classically bullish for the presidential election year. One reason for its bearish tail in the second half of that year was the re-election of the incumbent president. Four more years of incumbency invites exponential increases in corruption with expanded economic turmoil.  

 

It was up 29.9% on this weekend in 2013, finishing that normally bearish presidential post-election year up by a whopping 38.3%. Extraordinary stock market bullishness in 2013 correlated well with sequestration. The Dow and S&P500 closed out 2013 up by 26.5% and 29.6%, respectively, and diabolically opposed to a long history of presidential post-election year bearishness. Politically contributing elements were 1) sequestration and 2) continuing democratic losses at the city, county, state, and federal levels. Fortunately, communistic orations by the democratic party were repulsed by an increasingly number of smarter voters after their profound stupidity in the 2006-mid-term elections, allowing the democrats a majority in both the house and senate.  

           

The NASDAQ was up 10.9% in 2014, finishing that year up 13.4% even though starting out the year very slowly and enduring some significant near-term bearish cycles throughout 2014. The presidential use of executive orders countered normal stock market bullishness that usually accompanies political partisanship. The executive branch may undo the political cycle model if constitutional breeches accelerate. Obama’s successor could use an executive order to arrest Obama, Holder, and others for breaking the law and violation their oaths. Of course, aggravating constitutional authority will eventually erode the designed intention of the founding fathers. Human kind will regret it but will be too stupid to recognize their culpability in their economic decline.

.                                                                                                                                                                      

The NASDAQ was up 8.3% on this weekend in 2015. It finished 2015 up by 5.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 2.2% for the first bearish conclusion in a presidential pre-election year since 1939.

           

The NASDAQ was up 2.0% on this weekend in 2016 with polls suggesting Hillary Clinton as the obvious president elect. It finished 2016 up by 7.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 13.4% due, primarily, to a late year bullish explosion on the defeat of Hillary Clinton for the presidency and continued erosion of the democratic party.

 

The NASDAQ was up 24.7% on this weekend in 2017, finishing that presidential post-election year up b            y 28.2% with Donald Trump’s first year as president. Deregulating and undoing prior political damage to the economy is causation to that profound bullishness.

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 2.2% this year. The S&P500 is up 1.8% for the year and the NASDAQ is up 6.6% this year. The S&P600 is up 4.0% this year.  The Dow Transports is down 2.3% and Dow Utilities is up 0.2% this year.

 

The Dow is up 78.4% since its prior weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is up 157.3% since its last cyclical peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P500 is up 65.7% since its Oct 9, 2007 peak. The 2007 peaks coincide with political coziness in Washington D.C., which solidified in early 2007, as George W. Bush’s liberal tendencies melded well with the newly elected socialistic leaning congress with a similar fiscal liberalism and the dangerous practice of fascism.

 

All major indices are holding above their 2007-peaks. The Dow Utilities was the last of the major indices to return to 2007-peak levels. It took about seven years to do so but fell back below its 2007-peak in early Jan 2016. It is again above its Jul 19, 2007-peak by 31.1%.

 

The NASDAQ is above its 2000-peak by 45.7%. The NASDAQ100 finally crossed above its March 2000 all-time high on Nov 6, 2015, fell below shortly thereafter, and then crossed back above that peak on Jul 29, 2016. It also fell below that peak weekending Sep 9, 2016 and again crossing back above its March 24, 2000 peak on weekending Sep 16, 2016. It is above that peak by 48.0%. The S&P100 finally toppled its Mar 23, 2000 peak on May 2, 2013. It is now above that peak by 45.2%.

 

Although exact simultaneous bottoming did not occur on March 9, 2009, tracking from that pivot-point has been and will continue to be appropriate. This inexactness lends credence to the reverse tangential projections with a short-term view and increasingly so. Consequently, March 9, 2009 is the pivot date to monitor performance since the March 2009 bottoming from the 2007-2008 bear cycle. When prices fall below reverse tangential projections, new pivot points will be defined.

 

The Dow is up 286.0% since March 9, 2009, which is the “bottoming” pivot date from the great bear market of 2007/8. The NASDAQ is up 479.9% and the S&P500 is up 302.5% since then. The S&P600, Small Cap Index, is up 435.5% since March 9, 2009. That March 2009-current bull leg was indeed powerful, but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth. The Federal Reserve may be held in check by fearing Trump tweets and not accelerate rate increases during his first term. So far, the Fed remains passive, but recent rate hikes offer some arguments against being passive.           

 

The stock market bull is usually aroused and significantly so when congress and the president are at odds. This leads to a “do-nothing” government, which is usually bullish. The only positive economic contribution politicians can do is undoing their prior damage and the damage caused by their predecessors. The bullishness that occurs during do-nothing periods is due to the absence of additional economic damage by politicians. It will be interesting if a republican administration with a republican congress can upset 180-years of being bearish when those two bodies agree. So far, they are in disagreement and more or less disallowing an undoing of prior political damage. That dispute may indeed prevent resumption of more political damage. Also, Trump is having some success in deregulation, which is always bullish.

 

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

 

Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for several years, do not fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it does. The markets, both free and controlled, are not constant. A massive bear market, depending on the magnitude of combined interest rates and inflation, will eventually occur. The more politicians attempt to generate the markets as a constant, the less constant they become. The combined absolute value of interest rates, inflation/deflation remain less than 8.0% and thus no related threat of depressed economic behavior exists now. That is a temporary condition.

 

Although increasing above the norms of Obama economic sluggishness, the reported CPI remains relatively healthy, while the PPI remains non-threatening. As stated several times in this report, Trump-Economics will be inflationary. It has begun. Last week increased a threatening theme with commodity prices increasing. A simplified tax code is not on any agenda and thus no longer being viewed as an offsetting thematic to the inflationary threat.

 

The Prime Rate, Discount Rate, and Effective Rate increased another 25-basis points on week-ending Sep 30, 2018. That follows similar increases on week-endings Dec 23, 2016, Mar 17, 2017, Jun 15, 2017, Dec 15, 2017, Mar 23, 2018, and Jun 15, 2018. You should notice the spike in the 3-month T-Bill shortly after Trump’s election. The 2020-mean forecast continues escaping from its prior near zero projections.  Rates remain at low levels and thus not yet impeding economic growth. As stated on Oct 7, 2018, “they are becoming more aggressive, however, and increasingly likely to be too slow and low to fend off inflation.” Despite that, the annual inflation rate is being reported with only 2.3% to date this year. Oil prices are up 16.1% from this time a year ago, which has a very high correlation to inflation. There is more about oil later.

 

The Federal Reserve’s Quarter 2, 2017 promise of being passive on rate hikes remains as being challenged with noticeable increases in interest rates with 25-basis point jumps every three to six months since Trump’s election. The 3-Month T-Bill remains low and non-threatening to the stock market bull at 2.27%, despite recent rate hike aggression. It’s gallop to the north remains bit slower than the policy hikes. There is a future point where its rise will punish the stock market bull. If the Fed slows future rate hikes and OPEC has their way with increasing oil prices, inflationary pressures will also be unfriendly to the stock market bull.

 

The Euro fell into Yellow Bear status on week-ending Jun 15, 2018, while continuing resistance in deepening its Yellow Bear status. But it remains as a Yellow Bear, nonetheless. The prevailing bearish trend started the enjoyment of shifting bullishly for the first time in nine years in early March 2018 like it has four times since 2008 only to be followed by its resumption of its long-term bearish trend. The 2020-mean forecast is at $1.17 with more aggressive intrinsic modeling, projecting $0.601.  

 

The Canadian dollar fell below the zone of neutrality on weekending Jul 15, 2017 with its strengthening. It returned to the neutral zone in late October 2017. It moved above Red (weakening) on weekending Jul 28, 2018, but again falling below Red (strengthening) on weekending Aug 31, 2018 and remaining there to date. Its 2020-mean forecast is $1.30CA with projected polynomials forecasting much weaker values exceeding $1.80CA to $1.89CA.

 

The Japanese Yen statistical mean forecast is at 110-yen/dollar by 2020 while the aggressive polynomials are projecting a range of 149-160Yen/U.S. dollar. It shifted from the zone of neutrality to strengthening in late Feb 2018 and continues residence there with some recent steadying. It remains in a tight trading zone, while weakening just above Red on weekending Sep 30, 2018, but a again back into the neutral zone. It strengthens when falling. Trade tensions remain influential on international exchanges. Despite that, international currencies are remaining stable, while international stock market indices have been bearish the past few weeks but rebounding the past few weeks.

 

British Pound returned to Yellow Bear status in mid-June 2016 with the BREXIT vote. However, it moved above Yellow on week-ending May 5, 2017 and crossed into Red Bull status on Sep 14, 2017, as the U.S. Dollar continued weakening even against this weak currency at that time. It lost Red Bull status on week-ending May 11, 2018 by falling into the zone of neutrality and then returning to Yellow Bear status on weekending Jul 7, 2018. It continues to resist deepening its Yellow Bear status. Its 2020 statistical mean forecast is at $1.29 with more aggressive polynomials, projecting around $0.86-$0.87 by Dec 31, 2020. It falling to Yellow Bear status and not yet recovering suggests its long-term bearish cycle will not be overcome on the short-term horizon. Despite the BREXIT vote, Great Britain remains mired in socialistic mumbo-jumbo and its eventual bankruptcy will be the start of eradicating the stupidity emanating from the land of yellow-toothed people, who wait too long for dental care. Socialism creates long lines, while communism creates even longer lines. Communism and socialism offer maximal queuing at every human need requiring a specialist or a product. Over 50% of the people in many countries, now including the U.S., are too stupid to figure that out. The U.S.S.R. took about three generations of maximal poverty to figure that out. Although human beings have powerful brains, most do not know how to harness it, defaulting to bicameral tendencies.

 

The Bitcoin toppled $16,000 on most exchanges in late 2017 in skyrocketing fashion. It has weakened since then. It lost Red Bull status in late Mar/early Apr 2018. Even though it has declined, it remains in the zone of neutrality and resisting Yellow Bear status for several weeks, while remaining between $6,000-$9,000. It has been steadying the past several weeks with a mild bearish drift, while resisting Yellow Bear status. Its stability adds merit to its worthiness as a currency.

                       

Gold remains a Yellow Bear, but inching upward along the short-term cycle. It did not hold Red Bull status after regaining that status on Jan 16, 2018, dipping slightly below Red on week-ending May 11, 2018 and falling to Yellow Bear status during weekending Jul 13, 2018 and recently becoming a stronger Yellow Bear, while displaying some resistance there. Prevailing interest rates remain low, despite their recent hikes, and the corresponding weak dollar is encouraging bullish potential for gold. At some point, rising rates will strengthen the dollar, influencing gold’s bearishness. That remains as the current theme, as the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen. The 2020-mean forecast is $1,297/oz. while the more aggressive polynomials are projecting a 2020 value approximating $703-$706/oz. You can keep up with an approximation of this on the Indicant Daily Stock Market Report by tracking ETF#11-GLD.

 

Oil returned to Red Bull status on Oct 5, 2017, but fell below Red on Oct 25, 2018. The 2020-intrinsic and aggressive polynomial forecast ranges from $0 to $0. That is correct, but like all forecast, it is erroneous. The 2020-statistical mean forecast is at $54/bbl. This forecast continues to avoid the decline it endured from 2013 through early 2018. Saudi Royalty is most likely targeting $90/BBL for the time being, but lost a little ground on that the past two weeks.

 

The CRB Bridge Futures remains in the zone of neutrality after regaining Red Bull status on Nov 23, 2017 and after succumbing to the Yellow Bear on weekending Jun 10, 2017. It repelled Yellow Bear status in early Oct 2018 with a bullish bounce consistent with economic robustness. It has been enjoying a mild bullish trend since bottomed in May 2016. The 2020-mean forecast is at $190, while the more aggressive polynomials are forecasting zero by 2020.

 

Mortgage rates abandoned Yellow Bear status on Nov 3, 20 16 with a sharp rise to the enjoyment of Red Bull status for lenders and not for those desiring home ownerships. On Nov 25, 2016, it lost that Red Bull status. Mortgage rates regained Red Bull status in early March 2018 with momentum in their bullish configurations and continuing with bullish configurations. They are now accelerating.

 

The consumer price index and producer price index are computing without the combined absolute value of threatening interest rates and inflation or deflation of 8%. Considerations of deflationary threats are not out of line, though. Fortunately, there are millions around the world willing to work and be consumptive. With that, the strong may offset the weak.

 

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant again signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010 but had to signal sell on Dec 16, 2011 for a disappointing loss of around 15%. It endured another disappointing loss of 9.7% between the Jan 27, 2012 buy signal and the Mar 16, 2012 sell signal. It again endured a sell signal on Feb 8, 2013, as it fell below its short-term green curve. It was down 30.9% since that Feb 2013 sell signal, when it enjoyed a buy signal on May 6, 2016. It endured a sell signal on Nov 25, 2016, after moving up 10% from that sell signal. That triggered a buy signal on Jan 13, 2017. This fund has remained flat to mildly bearish since then, enduing a sell signal on Jun 15, 2018 after falling to Yellow Bear status. It is down 18.9% since that sell signal.

 

Fidelity Gold Fund #28 also endured a sell signal on Jun 15, 2018. It is down 10.9% since that sell signal.

 

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, enjoyed a buy signal on Oct 13, 2017 and down 0.4% since then.

 

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, endured a sell signal on Oct 19, 2018. It is down 9.4% since then.

 

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, endured a sell signal on Nov 2, 2018.

 

Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, endured a sell signal on Nov 2, 2018.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled sell for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Oct 11, 2018. It is down 7.2% since then. The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell on Oct 25, 2018. It is up 0.9% since then.

           

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy for GLD-ETF#11-Gold on Oct 15, 2018. It is up 0.6% since then.

The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell on Jun 15, 2018. It is down 3.9% since then.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.    

 

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling bull for six of the ten of the major indices. The existing bulls are up by an average of 42.6% since their bull signals an average of 119.7-weeks ago, annualizing at 18.5%.

 

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $69.352-million. That beats buy and hold performance of $3.788-million on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $3.245-million. That beats buy and hold’s $1.603-million on a Jan 6, 1950 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $2.077-million. That beats buy and hold’s $735,699 on a Jan 29, 1971 $10,000 investment.  The MTI-Dow Transports is at $34.537-million. That is better than buy and hold $722,040 since a $10,000 investment on Oct 19, 1928. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1,730.8%, 110.0%, 182.3%, and 4,744.3%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

 

There are two reasons why the Dow Transports is included in the above summary. It is used by the Dow Theory Forecast, which has merit, albeit slowly. The second reason is the statistical friendliness and its near-perfect sinusoidal waves. It tends to stay committed to its underlying cycle of bullishness or bearishness more than other indices.

 

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals. The Indicant’s advantage only occurs during bear signals.

 

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks  

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history. Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

 

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 98.8% since then. Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy and hold during 2009, 2013, and 2017, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation, for the most part, in those three presidential post-election years. Polls and recent elections are highlighting left leaning political movements. Although their accuracy is indeed questionable, a return to politburo wannabes in congress will offer this fund and others like it, profound growth opportunities at some future point, but not right now. Of course, if that happens, you would not enjoy the opportunity to enjoy the wealth this would provide you.

 

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

 

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

 

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

 

The Dow is up 773.0% (annualized at 28.5%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,409-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

 

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

 

The next section is the last daily stock market report for this past week

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Archives

{Repeated here are from the last trading day’s daily stock market report from the previous week. Click this link to see all the daily reports from the last 12-months. Retaining here in the weekly report allows for longer retention periods of the daily stock market reports that describe the short-term cycle at the end of each week}.

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Summary

Fri-Nov 2-As stated yesterday, the stock market bear has not yet hibernated. Today’s bearish aggression offered support for that. The markets opened bullishly but as the day wore on it acquiesced to a wounded but dangerous stock market bear. The good news is the stock market bear’s attempt at revenge was very weak. Until vector pressure moves back into bullish domains with prices above the near-term blue curve, the stock market bear will continue with capacity to strike.

 

Thu-Nov 1-The stock market bull continues pushing forward, but non-contrarian vector pressure remains deep inside bearish domains. There were no significant changes today, despite three consecutive days of strong stock market bullishness. The stock market bear has not yet hibernated.

 

Wed-Oct 31- Contrarian VIX-(Chart) force vector is shifting south. Normally, that alone would trigger a bear signal with less desirable bullish attributes. However, it is still a Red Bull and with that the stock market bear still has a much-desired ally. It is still up by 43.3% since the Oct 5, 2018’s bull signal by both the Near-term and Quick-term Indicants. Also, non-contrarian major indices, such as the DJIA-( Chart), are having trouble eclipsing the near-term blue curves, disallowing a new bull signal even though their force vectors are moving bullishly, and some have even crossed above vector pressure. There is some hope for the stock market bull, but the battle with the stock market bear remains in effect. Non-blue bulls along the near-term cycle remains with exposed vulnerability. Volume, however, is gaining a friendly relationship with the stock market bull, as you will read later in this report. On the other hand, non-contrarian DJU-(Chart) was bearish today on an otherwise strongly bullish day. It has actually been contrarian as the flight to safety on strongly bearish days. However, purebred bulls allow all of the major indices to be bullish. With that, the stock market bull remains a bit too weak to be referred to as a thoroughbred. Finally, partial contrarian TLT-(Chart) has been completely non-contrarian with its bearish slide along with the overall stock market’s bearishness. It is a pure Yellow Bear with pathetic configurations. Recent stock market bearishness appears to be politically based with fears of a communistic (democratic party) victory for the U.S. House of Representatives. They only want power and not acquiescing to the superiority of capitalism. Sociopaths, such as contemporary democrats, do not care about improving economic conditions. They are simply attempting to crown themselves and have you toil for their gain.

 

Tue-Oct 30-Today’s aggression by the stock market bull was accompanied with increasing volume and helping shift 9-force vectors into a bullish direction. However, those force vectors remain below vector pressure, which are deeply located in bearish domains. The stock market bear will not hibernate until vector pressure shifts bullishly and return to bullish domains. Contrarian VIX-(Chart) force is shifting bearishly with low pressure and also offering the stock market bull a mild alliance. Although slow-moving vector pressure has a lot of work in front of it to get back into bearish domains. Regardless of what pundits are saying, the stock market is nervous about the upcoming elections. Democratic control of congress would not be friendly to the stock market bull. Polls have a history of being inaccurate and the stock market does not like the unpredictability of a potential takeover by communists. With that, today’s stock market strong bullishness should be viewed as more fake than a real newly born bull.

 

Please review the below sections for more insight.

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

 

Index Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

Number of Near-term Bulls: 2 of 12; they are the DJU-(Chart) and VIX-(Chart)

Duration of Near-term Bulls: 3.7-wks-avg.

Near-term Bull Performance: 15.4%; Annualized Performance: 216.3% primarily due to the VIX’s strong bullishness since its Near-term Bull signal on Oct 5, 2018.

 

Number of Near-term Bears: 10 of 12

Average Duration of Near-term Bears: 3.8-wks. avg.

Near-term Bears Average Performance: -4.5%

Near-term Performance Advantage: Oct 5, 2018-Stock Market Bear

           

Near-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses  

Near-term Indicant Configured Bullish Blue Bulls: 0 of 12. 

Near-term Indicant Configured Bearish Green Bears: 1 of 12 

Near-term Position Advantage: Oct 4, 2018-Near-term Stock Market Bear.

 

Index Quick-term Report Card Summary  

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

                                               

Number of Quick-term Bulls: 4 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term Bulls: 71.8-wks.

Quick-term Bull Performance: 35.7%; Quick-term Annualized Performance: 25.9%

 

Number of Quick-term Bears: 8 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term: Bears: 2.1-weeks-avg.     

Quick-term Bear Performance: 0.9%

 

Quick-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 0 of 12

Configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 4 of 12

 

Quick-term Configured Advantage: Oct 11, 2018-Quick-term Stock Market Bear-first time since late 2016, Yellow Bear population exceeds Red Bulls. Although Red Bulls will periodically outnumber Yellow Bears, the advantage will not shift back to favoring the stock market bull until other short-term attributes support stock market bullishness.

                       

Short-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Non-contrarian force vectors in bullish domains: 6 of 11

Non-contrarian force vectors higher than vector pressure: 10 of 11

Non-contrarian vector pressure in bullish domains: 1 of 11 

Non-contrarian force vectors with bullish direction:  11 of 11                                             

Non-contrarian vector pressure with bullish direction:  8 of 11

Short-term Advantage: Short-term Stock Market Bear, effective Oct 10, 2018.

 

Indicant Volume Indicators

Fri-Nov 2-Average volume, but mostly lighter than associated with bullishness the past few days, does not offer significant encouragement to the stock market bear, despite its victory today.

 

Thu-Nov 1-Volume is dropping back to normalcy, but the stock market bull remains undeterred to resume dominance. Despite that, the bull/bear is not over along the short-term cycle.

 

Wed-Oct 31-Again aggressive volume on solid stock market bullishness is gaining in support of the stock market bull. Of concern is both volume indicators remain in the domain of high interest on mainly bearish stock market behavior. However, two consecutive days of aggressive volume on strong stock market bullishness is shifting bias from bear to bull.

 

Tue-Oct 30-Aggressive volume on strong stock market bullishness adds to disappointments by the stock market bear. Vector pressure, however, remains supportive of the stock market bear, but Tuesday’s volume is offering some hope to the stock market bull.

 

Mon-Oct 29-Volume was about recent average on continuing bearish aggression, offering very little inspiration to the stock market bear.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

ETF Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 6-ETF’s. Those enjoying hold signals are up by an average of 5.8% since their buy signals an average of 3.0-weeks ago, annualizing at 101.1%.

 

The NTI is avoiding 26-ETFs. They are down by an average of 5.4% since their sell signals 5.4-weeks ago.

 

Near-term ETF Cycle Analyses

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 0

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 1

 

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 1

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 1

 

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 6

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 2

 

Near-term Advantage: Oct 4, 2018-Near-term stock market bear.

         

ETF Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

                       

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 8-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 31.7% since their buy signals an average of 68.7-weeks ago, annualizing at 24.0%.

                                                           

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 23-ETFs. They are down by an average of 1.5% since their sell signals an average of 6.1-weeks ago.

                            

Quick-term ETF Cycle Analyses  

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 2

           

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 0

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 2

           

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 2

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 14  

 

Quick-term Advantage: Quick-term stock market bear, effective Oct 10, 2018.

 

Reverse Tangential Projections                

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections.

           

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

Other links:     

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the S&P500 Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Understanding Content on the Short-term Indicant Charts

 

Indicant Conclusion

A bullish response to recent stock market bearish finally occurred this past week. Does that suggest the stock market bull senses the democratic-communist party will be defeated in Tuesday’s elections? The answer is irrelevant at this point. The stock market bull will not gain traction until force climbs above pressure with Blue Bull status. With that, the election is technically irrelevant, but certainly fundamentally important. A democratic victory will be certainly be unsettling to the stock market bull even if contained to just the House of Representatives. With that, it may take some time for force to climb above pressure.

 

The good news is the prevailing force vector cycle is bearishly mature.

 

Click this sentence to keep up with the Short-term Indicant.

 

Click this sentence to maintain stock market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.

 

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.

 

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

 

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

 

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc., click the following hyperlink:

 

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm 

 

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the website, so you can always find your way back.

 

Stop Loss Management

This was moved to the bottom of this report as its content rarely changes. You will be notified when stop losses should be tightened or loosened.

 

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized capital gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the greater value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences.

 

For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

 

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying. Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

 

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

 

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

 

Happy Investing,

 

www.indicant.net

11/04/2018

 

 

 

 

 

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