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Jun 28, 2020 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 6, Issue 04 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

                                                          

Falling Force and Yellow Bears

All ten force vectors were bearishly directed for the second consecutive week. Falling force is generally non-bullish without blue bull status on the underlying security.  There are only two Blue Bulls along the Mid-term Indicant cycle. The two blue bulls are the NASDAQ-(Chart) and the NASDAQ100-(Chart). Increasingly bearish are two new Yellow Bears. The two Yellow Bears are the DJT-(Chart) and the S&P600-(Chart).

 

The two new Yellow Bears are important. The DJT-(Chart) has substantiated prior bear markets by virtue of its ability to reflect poor economic activity. The S&P600-(Chart) has been a bear market leader the past twenty-five years. The problem with Yellow Bears is the usual absence of a floor to their bearish behavior. In other words, there is nothing to slow bearish behavior. However, current configurations are a bit unusual. The bearish green curve is below Yellow on both of those indices. Therefore, there is another potential point of bearish resistance. That is a bit unusual, but a welcomed potential point of resistance to the stock market bear, as the depth of the green curve is still being influenced by the China-virus bear market.

 

Although all the major indices rebounded nicely and quickly after the China-virus bear, only the NASDAQ and NASDAQ100 moved higher than their pre-China virus bear latitudes. The other eight indices endured a slower and less enthusiastic bullish surges following the low point of the China-virus bear. Most of them achieved Blue Bull status for only a week or two and then again succumbed to the stock market bear, while the NASDAQ and NASDAQ100 were healthy Blue bulls and Red Bulls. The other eight were unhealthy, as many perished after being only one to two weeks old.

 

Weak securities and indices were getting weaker one week ago, while the strong were getting stronger. Quite often, the strong pull up the weak, but not this time. The strong are now enduring bearish inflictions, offering the stock market bear openings for yet more attacks. Both strong and weak force are bearishly directed with some below pressure. Keep in mind, all this turmoil is occurring in bullish domains. Although the bear can attack, its damage is minimal in bullish domains. If all this turmoil is occurring in bearish domains, one could expect a repeat of 1929 and 2008 where the stock market bear was free of competition with the stock market bull.  

 

As the China virus is reasserting itself, much to the delight of the democratic (communist) party, more small businesses will go bankrupt with over-zealous politicians violating their oath to the U.S. Constitution. Bacteria cannot be legislated, as nature’s law does not acknowledge or care about human-law. Some pontificators suggest larger businesses will benefit from the collapse of the small businesses, as people will continue needing what they want. What those pontificators have not yet figured out is that the newly unemployed will not have funds to get what they want. With that, the resulting depressed demand drives up corporate fixed costs and dampening profits accordingly, much to the delight of the stock market bear and democrats (communists).

 

Social media and internet related companies have been beneficiaries of the pandemic, where a stay a home population used those services. Stay at home populations eventually run out of money, while their democratic governors and legislators continue to enjoy the niceties of life. The people who vote for them are the fault of their own demise. The political elite have indeed pulled of their so-called elite status. That is increasingly dangerous to the U.S. economy and the quality of life for all. How can the stock market bull withstand the pandemic and a communistic takeover of the U.S.?

 

The weakest sector is financial. Banks and related mutual funds all endured sell signals this weekend. Gold is a forming a new bull cycle, due to anticipated gains in inflation. Statistics by the government are not honest, while the price of gold is. Right now gold is sensing increased inflation, despite what the government employees report.

 

The stock market pays attention to polls. Right now, Trump is lagging. The stock market can sometimes measure more accurately that political pollsters. The stock market bull will not be pleased with a democratic victory. The gap between Trump and Biden is too wide for the stock market bull’s arousal. On the contrary, the gap is encouraging to the stock market bear.

 

The most important attribute to monitor are force vectors at this point. The next potential point of bullish optimism is a disruption to its “smooth decline.”  

 

Please read the next section.

 

Mid-term Indicant Status of the Major Indices

The major stock market indices can be accessed by clicking this sentence.

Click this sentence to review how to understand the below terms.

 

Click this sentence to understand the details on the charts.

 

Mid-term Indicant Red Bulls-Click for Explanation1): 3-Red Bulls, 7-Non-Red Bulls

Comment: The S&P500-(Chart) Red Bull status lasted only one week. That leaves the S&P100-(Chart), NASDAQ-(Chart) and the NASDAQ100-(Chart) as the only Red Bulls. Those three indices are above Red by an average of 9.6%. The other seven major indices are below Red by an average of 12.8%. The NASDAQ100 is above Red by 16.3%.

 

Mid-term Indicant Blue Bulls-Click for Explanation2): 2-Blue Bulls, 8-Non-Blue Bulls

            Comment: The two blue bulls are above blue by an average of 6.5%. The eight non-blue bulls are below blue by 6.3%. The two blue bulls are the NASDAQ-(Chart) and the NASDAQ100-(Chart).

 

Mid-term Indicant Yellow Bears-Click for Explanation3): 2-Yellow Bears, 8-Non-Yellow Bears

              Comment: The two Yellow Bears are the DJT-(Chart) and the S&P600-(Chart). These two Yellow Bears are alarming, as the DJT substantiates strong bear markets and the S&P600 quite often leads stock market bears. They are below Yellow by 1.0%, while the other eight indices are above Yellow by a strong 23.2%.

 

Mid-term Indicant Green Bears-Click for Explanation4): 0-Green Bears, 10-Non-Green Bears

              Comment: All major indices are above green by an average of 22.6%. Most green curves continue falling and widening the gap between green and blue, which is unhealthy to the stock market bull.

 

Mid-term Indicant Red to Green Position5): 10-Reds Higher than Green; 0-Green Higher Than Red

              Comment: The ten major red curves are above the green curve by an average of 31.6%. This attribute is irrelevant until after the next major bullish swing when green curves cross above the red curves. However, as you can see there is room for another 31.7% bullish move before this unfavorable condition manifests. Such an increase is not possible with falling force vectors.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Position6): 10-bullish domains, 0-bearish domains

              Comment: This remains with bullishly preferred aggressiveness. Directional configurations are discussed in the force vector direction of this section.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Relative to Vector Pressure7): 1-above pressure, 9-below pressure

              Comment: Only the DJT’s-(Chart) force vector remains above vector pressure. Despite that normally bullish configuration, it endured a new bear signal along the mid-term cycle due to its new Yellow Bear status. Also, as you can see from the chart, its force vector should fall below pressure next week.

 

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Position8): 10-bullish domains, 0-bearish domains

              Comment: All remain in bullish domains. That is bullish, despite anticipated bearishness in the upcoming weeks. However, the stock market bear cannot dominate with bullishly positioned force vectors.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Direction9): 0-bullishly directed, 10-bearishly directed

              Comment: The NASDAQ-(Chart) and the NASDAQ100-(Chart) force vectors have been bearishly directed for four consecutive weeks. The S&P100-(Chart) has been bearishly directed for three consecutive weeks. The other seven major indices have been bearishly directed for the past two weeks. This is no longer mildly concerning.

 

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Direction10): 6-bullishly directed, 4-bearishly directed

            Comment: The four shifting bearishly this week are encouraging to the stock market bear.

 

Click this sentence to review how to understand the above terms.

Click this sentence to understand how to read the charts.

 

Mid-term Indicant Configured Condition of Major Indices:  Bearishly directed attributes remained for the second consecutive week. Most are still above pressure, however, offering mild resistance potential to the sock . The stock market bear has reason for being encouraged with falling force.

 

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Last Five Years

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows in this section. It highlights historical performance since 2002. Simply scroll down the webpage to see graphical and detail content of this section. The below describes the same for the past five years. If a particular year interest you, click this sentence, which will show you all of the prior weekly reports dating back to 2002 along with Indicant performance levels at the time of those reports. From there, you can click the year of interest and then to the specific time-period you are interested in. Please note that after the Weekly Stock Market Report, dated Aug 12, 2018, ten years of history was replaced with five years of history. Again, historical weekly reports, dating to 2002 remain available on the website. As 2008’s great bear market fades beyond the 10th anniversary, just as the NASDAQ’s 2002 drop of 89% was also no longer reported in 2012, it is no longer necessary to report 2008 here. These historical references, however, do remain on the website. Of course, the website has stock market history dating back to 1900.

 

The Mid-term Indicant generated no-buy signals and 29-sell signals this weekend. Clicking this sentence is where the Mid-term Indicant buy and sell signals are displayed.  

 

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 194 of the 316-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. Stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 238.2% that annualizes to 46.2%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 194-stocks and funds for an average of 174.3-weeks. There have been 166-buy signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.

 

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 93-stocks and funds of 316-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 33.6% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 112.1-weeks ago. There have been 230-sell signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.

 

One year ago, on Jun 28, 2019 the Mid-term Indicant was holding 212-stocks and funds of the 321-tracked for an average of 268.4-weeks. They were up by an average of 238.7% (annualized at 46.2%). There were 77-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down by an average of 31.1% since their respective sell signals an average of 103.3-weeks earlier, one year ago. There were 32-buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2019. There had been 116-buy signals and 48-sell signals for the year through this weekend in 2019.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 243-stocks on Jun 29, 2018. They were up 224.0% since their buy signals an average of 252.2-weeks earlier, annualizing at 46.2%. There were 76-avoided stocks on this weekend since their sell signals an average of 75.3-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and one sell signal on this weekend in 2018. There had been 36-buy signals and 64-sell signals in 2018 through this weekend of that year.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 254-stocks and funds of the 301-tracked on Jun 30, 2017. They were up by an average of 184.1%, annualizing at 43.6%, since their respective buy signals an average of 219.8-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 47-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 21.4% since their respective sell signals an average of 95-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2017. There had been 25-year-to-date buy signals and 21-sell signals through this weekend in 2017. This year was profoundly bullish, following the fake stock market bear on election night in 2016.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 261-stocks and funds of the 338-tracked on Jun 24, 2016. They were up by an average of 134.7%, annualizing at 35.5% since their respective buy signals an average of 197.5-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 66-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an

average of 26.3% since their respective sell signals an average of 82.9-weeks earlier. There were two buy signals and nine sell signals on this weekend in 2016. There had been a total of 94-buy signals and 77-sell signals through this weekend in 2016. The stock market endured some bearish cycles in this year as Hillary Clinton led in the polls. Once she lost, the stock market bull stampeded to the north with phenomenal ferocity.

 

The above performance reflects status at the time of the updates. Abandoned securities have no impact to the above performance statistics and the historical report card. They always represent status at the time of that status and never changes. When securities become NLT (no longer traded), their performance levels are excluded from the report card at the time they become NLT. There are no retroactive adjustments. The number of stocks and funds tracked from week to week may differ because they are no longer traded or listed on major stock exchanges.     

 

The Indicant started retaining records of abandoned stocks and funds in 2012. There are advantages of retaining records by expressing the consequences of an organization employing dilettante management and related corporate leeching. All organizations eventually expire. The primary causes of such expirations are corporate leeching, stupidity, and arrogance (without cause). {Note: the same is true of governments that fall prey to either economic leeching (FDR) and/or excessive egomaniacal behavior by its leaders (Hitler)}. Click here to see abandoned securities.

 

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals

As political meddling in the U.S. economy continues with more to come, set tight stop losses. As stated the past few weeks, the bull-bear battle continues and as long as that battle persists, the risk/reward ratio remains high. Another way of saying this is that projected reward/risk ratio remains low. The Indicant is now 38.6% out of the market, which is below being out by over 74% in early March 2020, based on the number of avoid-sell signals for stocks and funds along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.

 

Clicking this sentence will take you to this weekend’s Mid-term Indicant buy/sell signals.

 

The Short-term Indicant signals buy and sell for ETF’s, almost daily, provided the ETF’s enjoy a buy signal or endure a sell signal. They are not included in the Mid-term Indicant summaries. These short-term models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts, while the Mid-term Indicant includes fundamentals and longer-term technical data to reject short-term trader nervousness. The Daily Stock Market Report reports status for the short-term model.

 

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

 

Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for several years, do not fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it does. The markets, both free and controlled, are not constant. A massive bear market, depending on the magnitude of combined interest rates and inflation, will eventually occur. The more politicians attempt to generate the markets as a constant, the less constant they become. The combined absolute value of interest rates, inflation/deflation remain less than 8.0% and thus no related threat of depressed economic behavior exists now. That is a temporary condition.

 

Although increasing above the norms of Obama economic sluggishness, the reported CPI remains relatively healthy, while the PPI remains non-threatening. As stated, several times in this report, Trumponomics will be inflationary and heightened even more with money supply increasing far above earned money. Despite that eventuality, inflation remains tame for the time being. The annual inflation rate is being reported at only 0.1% to date this year. Oil prices, although recently rising, are down 35.8% from this time one year ago.

 

The Prime Rate, Discount Rate, and Effective Rate decreased by 100-basis points on Mar 20, 2020, following a 50-basis point cut on weekending Mar 6, 2020.  That followed less aggressive decreases on Aug 2, 2019, Sep 19, 2019, and Nov 2, 2019. These less aggressive decreases were miniscule to the increases on Dec 23, 2016, Mar 17, 2017, Jun 15, 2017, Dec 15, 2017, Mar 23, 2018, Jun 15, 2018, Sep 30, 2018, and Dec 21, 2018. High unemployment, semi-germ warfare from China, and overstepping communistic politicians continue confronting the stock market bull.

 

The 3-Month T-Bill fell to Yellow Bear status on weekending Jul 19, 2019.  After falling deeper into the domain of the Yellow Bear, it started a rebound attempt on weekending Jan 10, 2020, but fell deeper into the domain of the Yellow Bear on weekending Mar 6, 2020 and rapidly falling even more since then and below zero on weekending Mar 19, 2020, with a small bounce north of zero on weekending Apr 3, 2020. It has risen slightly since that craziness. Covid-19 is being blamed, but the economic lockdown remains as the prime cause with democrats doing that in attempt to route Trump from office. Their power to them is more important than your economic or healthy well-being.

                                                                                

The Euro enjoyed Red Bull status on weekending Jun 18, 2020 and still holding onto that. The 2020-mean forecast is at $1.17 with more aggressive intrinsic modeling, projecting $0.94 to $0.96. The absence of variation in its steady decline is impressive. This attempt at retaining Red Bull status reflects U.S. weakness at massive money printing machines.

 

The Canadian dollar fell below Red (strengthening) on weekending Jun 5, 2020 after climbing above Red (weakening) on weekending Mar 13, 2020 after climbing above Yellow (weakening) on weekending Aug 23, 2019. Its 2020-mean forecast is $1.32CA with projected polynomials forecasting much weaker values ranging from $1.58CA to $1.62CA.  

 

The Japanese Yen continues in a steady downward drift (strengthening). It continues with minimal variations mostly around the domain of the Yellow Bear (stronger). This currency has been and remains very stable since 2015. Its statistical mean forecast is at 109-yen/dollar by 2020 while the aggressive polynomials are projecting a range of 129-136-Yen/U.S. dollar. Its flatness the past several years is unusual. That helps international stabilization, which is always welcome by the stock market bull. It also strengthened with the mild rate reduction by the U.S. Fed on weekending Aug 2, 2019, but with limited impact on the Sep 19, 2019 rate reduction and continued steadiness with crazy Coronavirus reactions since early Feb 2020.

 

British Pound’s 2020 statistical mean forecast is at $1.29 with more aggressive polynomials, projecting around $1.10-$1.14 by Dec 31, 2020. Since its mid-June 2016 BREXIT vote, it drifted, bearishly. It climbed above Yellow Bear status on weekending Oct 18, 2019 and above Red on weekending, Dec 5, 2019, and again falling below Red on weekending Feb 7, 2020. After resting in the zone of neutrality, it fell into the domain of the Yellow Bear on weekending Mar 13, 2020 but has since strengthened and stabilizing somewhat in the domain of the Yellow Bear.

 

The Bitcoin lost Red Bull status on weekending Feb 20, 2020, after regaining Red Bull status on weekending Feb 13, 2020 and falling into the domain of the Yellow Bear on weekending Mar 13, 2020. It climbed out Yellow Bear status on weekending Apr 3, 2020 with massive greenback printing in overzealous responses to the Coronavirus attack from China. It remains in the zone of neutrality (between Red and Yellow) with some bullishness to it. It remains just below the domain of the Red Bull.

                       

Gold climbed sharply above Red on weekending Jun 21, 2019.  After a long rest, it remains as a strong Red Bull, but falling sharply for four weeks until bullish rebound on Apr 16, 2020. After a pausing bearish cycle, it is again climbing further above Red. Prior deflationary threats are evaporated, and consequently gold remains bullish with obviations of inflationary threats into the future. Your elected leaders and those who made it a career continue ruining your currency. The 2020-mean forecast is $1,310/oz. while the more aggressive polynomials are projecting a 2020 value approximating $1,005-$1,118/oz. You can keep up with an approximation of this on the Indicant Daily Stock Market Report by tracking ETF#11-GLD.

 

Oil finally moved above the domain of the Yellow Bear on weekending Jun 19, 2020, after falling to Yellow Bear status on Feb 6, 2020. The 2020-intrinsic and aggressive polynomial forecast ranges from $19 to $25 with a mean forecast of $56/bbl.

 

The CRB Bridge Futures remains as a Yellow Bear, since succumbing in Feb 2020. It is making a gallant attempt to escape the wrath of the Yellow Bear, but dwindling human IQ is reducing the need to extract resources. Youngsters have no idea how their behavior will lead to their decline in the quality of life. This cycle of self-infliction is apparently unavoidable. The 2020-mean forecast is at $188, while the more aggressive polynomials are forecasting $119-$127 by 2020. Its current configuration offers no support for inflation. It has been uncharacteristically steady for several years. Prior threatening deflationary concerns are subsiding, as it is rebounding.

 

Mortgage rates fell into Yellow Bear status on weekending Apr 12, 2019.  They remain as Yellow Bears and deepening so. This remains a great time to finance real estate for those willing to incur debt during uncertainties from the Coronavirus and the more damaging sociopathic politicians.

 

The consumer price index and producer price index are computing without the combined absolute value of threatening interest rates and inflation or deflation of 8%. Considerations of deflationary threats are not out of line, though. Fortunately, there are millions around the world willing to work and be consumptive. With that, the strong may offset the weak. The coronavirus had been disrupting that line of thinking, but nearing its disruptive end.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and eight new bear signals this week for the major indices along the mid-term cycle.    

 

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling bull for only two of the ten major indices. They are up by an average of 16.2% since their bull signals an average of 10.5-weeks ago and annualizing at 80.2% The lone two bulls are the NASDAQ-(Chart) and the NASDAQ100-(Chart).  

 

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $61.870-million. That beats buy and hold performance of $3.749-million on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $3.419-million. That beats buy and hold’s $1.772-million on a Jan 6, 1950 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $2.395-million. That beats buy and hold’s $975,722 on a Jan 29, 1971 $10,000 investment.  The MTI-Dow Transports is at $30.313-million. That is better than buy and hold $630,468 since a $10,000 investment on Oct 19, 1928. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1,649.9%, 193.0%, 245.5%, and 4,649.5%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

 

There are two reasons why the Dow Transports is included in the above summary. It is used by the Dow Theory Forecast, which has merit, albeit slowly. The second reason is the statistical friendliness and its near-perfect sinusoidal waves. It tends to stay committed to its underlying cycle of bullishness or bearishness more than other indices.

 

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals as buy and hold and the Indicant moves at the same magnitude. The Indicant’s advantage only occurs during bear signals as the cash holds constant, while the stock market dives. It sometimes takes a week or two for the statistics to settle.

 

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks  

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history. Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

 

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 99.6% since then. Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy and hold during 2009, 2013, and 2017, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation, for the most part, in those three presidential post-election years. Polls and recent elections are highlighting left leaning political movements. Although poll accuracy is indeed questionable, a return to politburo wannabes in congress will offer this fund and others like it, profound growth opportunities at some future point, but not right now, even with the coronavirus inflicting damage to the stock market bull. Of course, if that happens, you would not be allowed to benefit from that opportunity to enjoy the wealth this would provide you. Politburo’s confiscate. This fund remains too depressed for a coronavirus buy at this point. At this point it is better to purchase related ETF, QID, when you see a buy signal.

 

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

 

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

 

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

 

The Dow is up 764.2% (annualized at 26.6%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,495-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

 

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

 

The next section is the last daily stock market report for this past week

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Archives

{Repeated here are from the last trading day’s daily stock market report from the previous week. Click this link to see all the daily reports from the last 12-months. Retaining here in the weekly report allows for longer retention periods of the daily stock market reports that describe the short-term cycle at the end of each week}.

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Summary

Fri-Jun 26-There were several sell signals due to bearish vector pressure and falling force from within bearish domains. That attributes, coupled to falling force along the mid-term cycle triggered increasing sell signals. Also, there were several new bear signals along both the near-term and quick-term cycles. You will see in the weekly stock market report yet more new bear signals were triggered along the mid-term cycle.

 

Wed-Jun 24-The DJU-(Chart) is now a Yellow Bear with bearish force and pressure along the short-term cycle. It is not yet a Green Bear, but nearing that configuration. It will endure a quick-term and near-term bear signal if it falls below the near-term green curve. Today’s stock market bearishness did not destroy the NASDAQ-(Chart) and NASDAQ100-(Chart) blue bulls. It is close, but not yet destroyed. Those two Blue Bulls and Red Bulls offer a measure of protection against the stock market bear. As stated in the weekly stock market report, “falling Mid-term force vectors bias in favor of the stock market bear” but not yet dynamically so. Also, keep in mind, the Quick-term cycle has been favoring the stock market bear since Jun 11, 2020. Short-term traders should set tight stop losses with falling force.

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

 

Index Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and five new bears.

 

Number of Near-term Bulls: 6 of 12

Duration of Near-term Bulls: 8.5-wks-avg.

Near-term Bull Performance: 9.2%; Annualized Performance: 56.4%.

 

Number of Near-term Bears: 1 of 12

Average Duration of Near-term Bears: 1.6-wks. avg.

Near-term Bears Average Performance: -0.3%

Near-term Performance Advantage: May 26-Stock Market Bull

           

Near-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses  

Near-term Indicant Configured Bullish Blue             Bulls: 0 of 12 

Near-term Indicant Configured Bearish Green Bears: 1 of 12

 

Near-term Position Cyclical Advantage: Jun 26, 2020-Stock Market Bear

 

Index Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and five new bears.

                                               

Number of Quick-term Bulls: 6 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term Bulls: 8.2-wks.

Quick-term Bull Performance: 7.9%; Quick-term Annualized Performance: 50.2%

 

Number of Quick-term Bears: 1 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term Bears: 1.6-weeks-avg.     

Quick-term Bear Performance: 0.3%

 

Quick-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 2           

Configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 4 of 12

 

Quick-term Configured Advantage: Jun 26, 2020-Quick-term Advantage to Bear

                       

Short-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Non-contrarian force vectors in bullish domains: 2 of 11

Non-contrarian force vectors higher than vector pressure: 0 of 11

Non-contrarian vector pressure in bullish domains: 5 of 11

Non-contrarian force vectors with bullish direction:  1 of 11                                          

Non-contrarian vector pressure with bullish direction:  1 of 11

Short-term Advantage: Short-term Stock Market Bear-effective Jun 26, 2020.

 

Indicant Volume Indicators

Fri-Jun 26-Higher volume on stock market bearishness is supportive of that bearishness and especially so with increase bearish attributes along both the short-term and mid-term cycles.

 

Thu-Jun 25-Lighter volume on stock market bullishness is not supportive of that bullishness.

 

Wed-Jun 24-Higher volume on strong stock market bearishness is a bit more supportive of the stock market bear.

 

Tue-Jun 23-Same as yesterday on milder stock market bullishness and thus not encouraging to the stock market bull.

 

Mon-Jun 22-Low volume on stock market bullishness does not encourage the stock market bull.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

ETF Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant generated one buy signal and 12-sell signals.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 17-ETF’s. Those enjoying hold signals are up by an average of 11.6% since their buy signals an average of 10.1-weeks ago, annualizing at 59.5%.

 

The NTI is avoiding two ETFs. They are down by an average of 18.6% since their sell signals an average of 6.6-weeks ago.

 

Near-term ETF Cycle Analyses

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 1

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 1

 

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 1

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 1

 

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue     Bulls: 2

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 4

 

Near-term Advantage: Stock Market Bear Jun 26, 2020

          

ETF Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and 10-sell signals.

                       

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 18-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 11.1% since their buy signals an average of 14.4-weeks ago, annualizing at 39.9%.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding four ETF. They are down by an average of 12.1% since there sell signals 4.4-weeks ago.

                               

Quick-term ETF Cycle Analyses  

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 1

           

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 1

           

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red      Bulls: 5

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 10

 

Quick-term Advantage: Quick-term Stock Market Bear Jun 11, 2020

 

Reverse Tangential Projections                   

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections.

           

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

Other links:    

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the S&P500 Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Understanding Content on the Short-term Indicant Charts

 

Indicant Conclusion

Falling force along the Mid-term Indicant cycle is no longer of mild concern. Some dipped below pressure, arousing the stock market bear. Several new bear/sell signals were triggered on all cycles (near-term, quick-term and mid-term). Risks in holding elevates with falling force below pressure. There are still some Blue Bulls and Red Bulls offering some protection against the stock market bear.  

 

Click this sentence to keep up with the Short-term Indicant.

 

Click this sentence to maintain stock market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.

 

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.

 

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

 

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

 

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc., click the following hyperlink:

 

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm 

 

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the website, so you can always find your way back.

 

Stop Loss Management

This was moved to the bottom of this report as its content rarely changes. You will be notified when stop losses should be tightened or loosened.

 

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized capital gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the greater value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences.

 

For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

 

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying. Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

 

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

 

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

 

Indicant Conclusion

Force vector behavior is increasingly unfriendly to the stock market bull with a majority of the major indices in  a strong bearish direction. Force vectors remain below vector pressure. Until force moves above pressure, the stock market bull remains absent.  

 

Click this sentence to keep up with the Short-term Indicant.

 

Click this sentence to maintain stock market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.

 

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.

 

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

 

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

 

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc., click the following hyperlink:

 

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm 

 

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the website, so you can always find your way back.

 

Stop Loss Management

This was moved to the bottom of this report as its content rarely changes. You will be notified when stop losses should be tightened or loosened.

 

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized capital gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the greater value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences.

 

For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

 

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying. Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

 

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

 

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

 

Happy Investing,

 

www.indicant.net

06/28/2020

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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