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  Dec 25, 2022, Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 12, Issue 04 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

The Stock Market Bear Remains Dominant

The short-term cycle is configuring for a mild bullish spurt. However, the stock market bear remains dominant along the more stable mid-term cycle. Technically, all force vectors are moving in a bearish direction. All but one vector pressure is also moving in a bearish direction. The exception is the DJU-(Chart). Its vector pressure continues moving bullishly, but as you can see from the chart, its force vector is now moving in a bearish direction. The DJU-(Chart) remains the lone Mid-term Indicant bull. As long as it retains bull status, the stock market bear will not endure a deep drop.

 

A majority of vector pressures remain in bullish domains, but their bearish direction favors continued stock market bearishness. That coupled with fundamentals suggests there is little reason to expect stock market bullishness until force vectors shift back into a bullish direction.

 

Mid-term Indicant Status of the Major Indices

The major stock market indices can be accessed by clicking this sentence.

Click this sentence to review how to understand the below terms.

 

Click this sentence to understand the details on the charts.

 

Mid-term Indicant Red Bulls-Click for Explanation1): 0-Red Bull, 10-Non-Red Bulls

Comment: No Red Bulls is maximal non-bullishness.

 

Mid-term Indicant Blue Bulls-Click for Explanation2): 2-Blue Bulls, 8-Non-Blue Bulls

            Comment: Only two Blue Bulls is not supportive of stock market bullishness.

 

Mid-term Indicant Yellow Bears-Click for Explanation3): 0-Yellow Bears, 10-Non-Yellow Bears

              Comment: All major indices are above Yellow by an average of 12.0%.

 

Mid-term Indicant Green Bears-Click for Explanation4): 1-Green Bears, 9-Non-Green Bears

              Comment: The NASDAQ-(Chart) is now a Green Bear, offering the stock market additional support.

 

Mid-term Indicant Red to Green Position5): 10-Red Higher than Green; 0-Green Higher Than Red

              Comment: The Red Curve is above Green by an average of 20.6% and thus not standing in the way of a stock market bull. However, the stock market bear continues dominating. With that, this metric is irrelevant at this point.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Position6): 6-bullish domains, 4-bearish domains

              Comment:  This is reducing support for the stock market bull.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Relative to Vector Pressure7): 1-above pressure, 9-below pressure

              Comment: This remains supportive of the stock market bull, but weakening in the support.

           

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Position8): 9-bullish domains, 1-bearish domains

              Comment: This highly desired attribute supports the stock market bull.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Direction9): 0-bullishly directed, 10-bearishly directed

              Comment: This is supportive of the stock market bear.

 

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Direction10): 1-bullishly directed, 9-bearishly directed

            Comment: This is increasingly supportive of the stock market bear.

 

Click this sentence to review how to understand the above terms.

Click this sentence to understand how to read the charts.

 

Mid-term Indicant Configured Condition of Major Indices: Mid-term attributes continue shifting in  favor of the stock market bull.

 

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Last Week

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows of historical buy and sell signals and stock market status.

 

The website has stock market history dating back to 1900.

 

The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals this weekend. Clicking this sentence is where the Mid-term Indicant buy and sell signals are displayed.  

 

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 124 of the 315-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. Stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 406.4% that annualizes to 88.9%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 124-stocks and funds for an average of 237.9-weeks. There have been 120 buy signals for stocks and funds so far, this year. Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant, hold signals are 39.4% in the market.

 

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 191-stocks and funds of 315-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 18.6% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 79.6-weeks ago. There have been 263-sell signals for stocks and funds so far, this year. Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant, avoid signals are 60.6% out of the market.

 

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals

Those who voted for what they got in 2020 may shift their thinking. However, successful duping of the masses may not reduce political power of prevailing incumbents. If that continues, corruption and related injustice for the masses will expand and the stock market bull will hibernate like the bear did from 1980 through 2020. That 40-year bull can easily be replaced by a 40-year bear. However, as of this past week, configurations are shifting in favor of fundamental corrections; that is, eliminating the evil from incumbent politicians around the world and in the U.S.

 

Clicking this sentence will take you to this weekend’s Mid-term Indicant buy/sell signals.

 

The Short-term Indicant signals buy and sell for ETF’s, almost daily, provided the ETFs enjoy a buy signal or endure a sell signal. They are not included in the Mid-term Indicant summaries. These short-term models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts, while the Mid-term Indicant includes fundamentals and longer-term technical data to reject short-term trader nervousness. The Daily Stock Market Report reports status for the short-term model.

 

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

 

Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for several years, do not fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it does. The markets, both free and controlled, are not constant. Control freaks in political power have 100% potential to create economic and social calamity with their desired result of a police state. That is why they encourage asset destruction. That would give them absolute power. That is never good for anyone but them.

 

Reported CPI  remains unhealthy. The PPI, as reported, is now unfavorably penetrating the stock market bull and the economy. The annual inflation rate is reported at 6.9%. Oil prices are up 1.2% from this time one year ago. Oil is up by $43.33/BBL (+120.3%) since Biden’s so-called election. Oil is up 34.3% since Biden was sworn in as President of the United States. Oil is down 13.8% since Russian invaded Ukraine on Feb 24, 2022. Biden, not Putin, caused inflation and related higher fuel prices. Without Biden’s surging oil prices, Putin could not have afforded to attack Ukraine and invoke misery on millions. That is what politicians tend to do; invoke misery.

 

The Prime Rate, Discount Rate, and Effective Rate increased 50-basis points on weekending Dec 16, 2022 following a 75-basis points on weekending Nov 4, 2022. Economic damage inflicted by the democratic party, germ warfare from their China pals, and other overstepping U.S. communistic politicians, and the self-proclaimed elites continue manifestation with a hopeful designed pause in the nightmare of a Biden presidency with a democratic congress. The destination to a decreased quality of life has begun. However, a glimmer of hope rests with impeaching the president and the vice-president. The stock market bull is apparently not aroused by this Tuesday’s election.

 

The 3-Month T-Bill shifted to Red Bull status on weekending Jan 28, 2022, after about two and a half years of enduring Yellow Bear status since Jul 19, 2019.  The T-Bill has risen a significant amount the past several weeks to the delight of the stock market bear. That behavior is now more visible on the chart as interest rates continue escaping the gravity of zero in a race to the clouds of stupidity. The prevailing rates are now well above pre-Covid prior peak in June 2019 and about 80% of the way to the pre 2008 peak cycle.

           

The Euro dropped to Yellow Bear status on weekending Oct 22, 2021, after losing Red Bull status on weekending Jul 31, 2021.  It continues residence in the domain of the Yellow Bear, but attempting to overcome Yellow Bear status the past few weeks. The 2024-mean forecast is at $1.15 with more aggressive intrinsic modeling, projecting $0.94 to $0.98.

 

The Canadian dollar moved above Red (weakening) during the week of July 11, 2022, after climbing above Yellow (weakening) nearly one year ago on July 17, 2021. Its 2024-mean forecast is $1.30CA with projected polynomials forecasting much weaker values ranging from $1.68CA to $1.72CA.

 

The Japanese Yen remains above Red since Apr 2, 2021, but falling (strengthening) the past several weeks. Its narrow min-max points from 2017 through mid-2021 remains impressive with that tightness continuing through September 2021, when some additional weakening occurred. It continues to be escaping that tight trading range from 2017 through mid-2021. It weakened severely the week of Apr 4, 2022. It, like most currencies, was stable during Trump’s era and now American made products are less competitive during the Biden era, as all major foreign currencies are weakening much to the delight of those foreign governments. Its statistical mean forecast is at 120-yen/dollar by Dec 2024 while the aggressive polynomials are projecting a range of 146-151-Yen/U.S. dollar.

 

The British Pound fell to Yellow Bear status as of Mar 11, 2022. Its statistical mean forecast is at $1.28 with more aggressive polynomials, projecting around $1.00-$1.04 by Dec 2024. The last bearish cycle was deeper than the prior one suggesting a trend reversal favoring its bearishness.

 

The Bitcoin fell to Yellow Bear status on week ending May 20, 2022 for the first time since early 2020. After that bearishness, it continued holding at around $20,000 but now settling around the $16,000 range.

                       

Gold endured Yellow Bear status on weekending July 8, 2022.  That is contrarian behavior to its normal increase during inflationary periods. The Dec 2024-mean forecast is $1,800/oz. while the more aggressive polynomials are projecting a Dec 2024 value approximating $1,289-$1,500/oz. You can keep up with an approximation of this on the Indicant Daily Stock Market Report by tracking ETF#11-GLD.

 

Oil lost Red Bull status on weekending Aug 11, 2022 after regaining Red Bull status on weekending Dec 31, 2020.  It fell into Yellow Bear status on weekending Dec 11, 2022, but against a bullish trend.

 

The CRB Bridge Futures lost Red Bull status on weekending Sep 22, 2022 after regaining that lofty status on Dec 31, 2020, and after abandoning Yellow Bear status on the week of August 3, 2020. That correlated well with a dumb voting populace and vote cheaters supporting the communistic takeover attempt of the U.S. It is now aggressively contributing to inflation. Also, it strengthened during the week of the U.S. election. It is about to increase again, as the election is over and the incumbents no longer needing votes.

 

Mortgage rates regained Red Bull status on weekending Mar 12, 2021, after falling into Yellow Bear status on weekending Apr 12, 2019.  As of weekending Dec 3, 2021, they were weak Red Bulls, but now increasingly militant to future home buyers. This no longer remains a “great” time to finance real estate. However, it is still arguably a “good” time, as interest rates will be triple prevailing levels before 2024 if prevailing politicians continue doing what they are doing. Impeachment is no longer possible with the recent elections. With that, you can expect continuing rising rates.

 

The consumer price index and producer price index are now computing with the combined absolute value of threatening interest rates and inflation or deflation of 8%. That is not bullish and as you have seen, it has been outright bearish.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bears this past week.

 

The DJU-() is the lone bull. It is up by of 5.9% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled bull eight weeks ago, annualizing at 38.0%. The nine bears are down by an average of 3.4% since their bear signals an average of 5.1-weeks ago. 

 

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $70.0million. That beats buy and hold performance of $5.0 million on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $4.3 million. That beats buy and hold’s $2.3 million on a Jan 6, 1950, $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $2.7 million. That beats buy and hold’s $1.16 million on a Jan 29, 1971, $10,000 investment.  The MTI-Dow Transports is at $40.2-million. That is better than buy and hold $971,201 million since a $10,000 investment on Oct 19, 1928. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1,394.0%, 183.5%, 230.6%, and 4,144.4%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

 

There are two reasons why the Dow Transport index is included in the above summary. It is used by the Dow Theory Forecast, which has merit, albeit slowly. The second reason is the statistical friendliness and its near-perfect sinusoidal waves. It tends to stay committed to its underlying cycle of bullishness or bearishness more than other indices.

 

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals as buy and hold and the Indicant moves at the same magnitude. The Indicant’s advantage only occurs during bear signals as the cash holds constant, while the stock market dives.

 

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks  

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history. Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

 

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 99.9% since then. Although this is classically presidential post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy and hold during 2009, 2013, 2017, and 2021 as the stock market bear remained in hibernation, for the most part, in those four presidential post-election years. Interest rates fell to historical lows in the 2008/9 recession and persisted since then and thus giving rise to equity attractiveness to investors. Although interest rates have risen in 2022, they remain at levels below that in the 1990’s.

 

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

 

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

 

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

 

The Dow is up 1047.1%, annualized at 33.5% since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,625-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

 

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

 

The next section is the last daily stock market report for this past week

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Archives

{Repeated here are from the last trading day’s daily stock market report from the previous week. Click this link to see all the daily reports from the last 12-months. Retaining here in the weekly report allows for longer retention periods of the daily stock market reports that describe the short-term cycle at the end of each week}.

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Summary

Dec 23-The short-term cycle remains bearish.

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

 

Index Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

Number of Near-term Bulls: 2 of 12

Duration of Near-term Bulls: 3.5-wks-avg.

Near-term Bull Performance: -1.3%; Annualized Performance: -1.3%

Number of Near-term Bears: 10 of 12

Average Duration of Near-term Bears: 2.0-wks. avg.

Near-term Bears Average Performance: -2.2%  

Near-term Performance Advantage: Dec 9, 2022-Stock Market Bear

           

Near-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses  

Near-term Indicant Non-Contrarian Configured Bullish Blue Bulls: 1 of 11 

Near-term Indicant Non-Contrarian Configured Bearish Green Bears: 6 of 11

 

Near-term Performance Advantage: Dec 9, 2022-Stock Market Bear

 

Index Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

                                               

Number of Quick-term Bulls: 21 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term Bulls: 3.5-wks.

Quick-term Bull Performance: -1.3%; Quick-term Annualized Performance: -1.3%.

Number of Quick-term Bears: 10 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term Bears: 2.0-weeks-avg.

Quick-term Bear Performance: -2.2%

 

Quick-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 0 of 12

Configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 5 of 12

 

Quick-term Configured Advantage: Dec 9, 2022-Stock Market Bear                            

 

Short-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses          

Non-contrarian force vectors in bullish domains: 5 of 11

Non-contrarian force vectors higher than vector pressure: 0 of 11

Non-contrarian vector pressure in bullish domains: 0 of 11

Non-contrarian bullish force vector direction: 11 of 11

Non-contrarian bullish vector pressure direction: 0 of 11

 

Short-term Advantage: Short-term Advantage: Dec 9, 2022-Stock Market Bear

 

Indicant Volume Indicators

Dec 23-There is no change from last week. Volume remains in the domain of high interest with mixed stock market behavior but with increasing bias in favor of the stock market bear.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

ETF Near-term Report Card Summary

There were no buy signals and no sell signals along the near-term cycle.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for six-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 0.8% annualizing at 9.1% since their buy signals an average of 4.7-weeks ago.

 

The Near-term Indicant is avoiding 26-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 2.7% since their sell signals an average of 4.4-weeks ago.

 

Near-term ETF Cycle Analyses

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 1

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 1

 

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 1

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 0

 

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue     Bulls: 4

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 11

 

Near-term Advantage: Dec 9, 2022-Stock Market Bear

          

ETF Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for five ETF’s. They are up by an average of 3.1% annualizing at 37.1% since their buy signals an average of 4.4-weeks ago.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 27-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 3.7% since their sell signals 4.6-weeks ago.

                               

Quick-term ETF Cycle Analyses  

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 0

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 2

           

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 0

           

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red      Bulls: 4

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 14

 

Quick-term Advantage: Dec 9, 2022-Stock Market Bear

 

Reverse Tangential Projections                   

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections.

           

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

Other links:

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the S&P500 Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Understanding Content on the Short-term Indicant Charts

 

Indicant Conclusion

Configurations are increasingly supportive of the stock market bear. Fundamentally, there is little reason to expect continuing bullishness.

 

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc., click the following hyperlink:

 

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm 

 

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page on the website, so you can always find your way back.

 

Stop Loss Management

This was moved to the bottom of this report as its content rarely changes. You will be notified when stop losses should be tightened or loosened.

 

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized capital gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the greater value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences.

 

For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

 

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying. Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

 

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

 

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

 

Click this sentence to keep up with the Short-term Indicant.

 

Click this sentence to maintain stock market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.

 

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.

 

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

 

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

 

Happy Investing,

 

www.indicant.net

12/25/2022

 

 

 

 

 

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