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Jan 13, 2019 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 01, Issue 02 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report


The Lone Stock Market Hero-Part VI – Despite CA’s PG&E

The Indicant changes the components of index stocks, periodically, and not when the change actually occurs. That is because stocks will shift in and out of major indices several times in a two year period. That is why there are over a 100-stock in the Indicant’s version of the NASDAQ100 stocks. Sometimes stocks are removed in a major index, but still trades. For example, Enron was tracked as a member of the Dow Utilities long after it was removed from the DJU index, but still trading. The Indicant’s process is to relocate removed stocks to the Indicant Select Stocks group to continue tracking. That is why the Indicant Select Stock group has many open spaces for future failures.


Currently, the Indicant’s Dow Utility stock listing has three with avoid signals while 12-stocks are enjoying hold signals. One of the avoided stocks is down 67.1% since the Indicant’s Dec 8, 2017 sell signal at $53.76. It closed last Friday at $17.59. That stock is DJU#07-PG&E-(Chart). As you can see from the chart, it was enjoying a nice long-term bullish trend until late 2017. Upon enduring Yellow Bear status with bearish vector pressure, the Indicant generated a sell signal. No one knew how much bearishness it would endure at the time of the sell signal. Utility stocks typically do not endure deep bearish slides like this one. This company’s annual revenue exceeds $17-billion, but with long-term debt of the approximately same amount. Their CEO enjoys a salary exceeding $1-million, despite his leadership driving the stock price down. It is suspected he has plenty of excuses and one making over a million is not allowed to have even one excuse. Heavy salaries and underperforming should not coexist. Of course, if with close ties to the politburo, one can do okay, as long as you always smile at politburo wannabes. Caution that fake smiles are easily detected. Doing that to Stalin resulted in the fake smiler’s disappearance never to be seen again.


PG&E is headquartered in San Francisco, CA, near the home town of House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi, politburo wannabe queen. Although not known as factual, it is unlikely Pelosi, who is an economic illiterate and not limited to just that subject, cannot be elected without some big money support from organizations such as PG&E. Pelosi’s double speak is always amazing, but not surprising since habitual liars do not know they are lying. Of course, the stupid do not know they are stupid. Pelosi has fences around her house, while claiming fences along the border will not work. It is amazing that Congress has not proposed a law to band all fences, everywhere, including the one surrounding Pelosi’s home since they do not work.


PG&E has an officer with the title of Sr. VP of HR & Chief Diversity Officer. No one has a title with the word, “efficiency” or “effectiveness” or “productivity” in it. Stocks with objectives noted in their titles, such as “diversity” should be avoided. The management of publicly traded companies should have singular loyalty directed on behalf of the shareholder. Companies being distracted by such things, as diversity, are too distracted to work strictly for the shareholder’s benefit. One can imagine that Nancy Pelosi is very happy with PG&E’s Chief Diversity Officer, while their shareholders are taking a beating. Politburo wannabes do not care about shareholder wealth. They simply yearn to wear a crown. Your founding fathers wanted you to have guns, so you can shoot the crown off if necessary. Therein lies why the left wants your guns. They want you to toil, polishing their crowns.


Despite PG&E being down, the Dow Utilities-(Chart), has not yet endured a new bear signal along the Mid-term Indicant cycle. As you can see, it is the lone bull along the more stable Mid-term Indicant cycle. Click this sentence to view its relationship with the other major nine indices.


As you can see from the Dow Utilities chart, after losing Red Bull status a few weeks ago, it fell to just above the short-cycle green curve two weeks ago. Falling below green is the most common bear signal trigger along the Mid-term Indicant cycle of major indices. As you can also see from the chart, it is sliding sideways just above the green curve. That resistance is the lone reason for not enduring a bear signal at this time. At the top of the chart, you should notice is force vector and vector pressure are configured bearishly with both residing in bearish domains.


The Dow Utilities remains with a bear signal along both the near-term and quick-term cycles. In essence it is a short-term bear. As you can see from its Short-term Indicant chart, its force vector pushed into bullish domains this past Friday, offering an opportunity to enjoy a new bull signal. The next major accomplishment to do that with a high probability of sustainability is for vector pressure to climb into bullish domains and hold there.


If you desire a stock market bull, you do not want to see the Dow Utilities endure a bear signal along the Mid-term Indicant cycle if there are no other major indices without a bull signal, which is the current situation.


Mid-term Indicant Status of the Major Indices

The major stock market indices can be accessed by clicking this sentence.

Click this sentence to review how to understand the below terms.


Click this sentence to understand the details on the charts.


Mid-term Indicant Red Bulls-Click for Explanation1): 0-Red Bulls, 10-Non-Red Bulls

            Comment: All ten non-Red Bulls are below Red by 5.4%. There is no Red Bull protection against the stock market bear. This remains troubling for the stock market bull.


Mid-term Indicant Blue Bulls- Click for Explanation2): 0-Blue Bulls, 10-Non-Blue Bulls

            Comment: All ten major indices are below Blue by 2.1%. This also remains troubling for the stock market bull.


Mid-term Indicant Yellow Bears-Click for Explanation3): 0-Yellow Bears, 10-Non-Yellow Bears

                Comment: Fortunately, none of the major indices are Yellow Bears. Falling to Yellow Bear status requires an average drop, overall, of the ten major indices, of 15.3% from current position. Without Yellow Bears, the stock market bear has difficulty in gaining long-term dominance and the economy is not being threatened. The gap between prevailing prices and the Yellow Bear is no longer relevant, since nine of the ten major indices are enduring Mid-term Indicant bear signals.


Mid-term Indicant Green Bears-Click for Explanation4): 6-Green Bears, 4-Non-Green Bear

                Comment: The six Green Bears are below Green by an average of 0.9%. That remains with a significant, but weakening, bearish configuration. The four non-green bears are above Green by 0.3%. With that, the green bears are stronger than the non-greens.


Mid-term Indicant Red to Green Position5): 10-Reds Higher than Green; 0-Greens Higher Than Red

                Comment: This attribute has been identifying an overheated bull market for several months and in the process of resetting with the new bear signals. The DJT-(Chart) and the DJU-(Chart) have not enjoyed Green crossing above Red in the current bull cycle. Overall, Red is above Green by an average of 5.4%. Once Green falls below Red, stock market normalcy should return based on prevailing and projected economic fundamentals, regardless if bearish or bullish. It would be great if the magnitude of this bear would only be another 5.4% drop, but not likely.


Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Position6): 0-bullish domains, 10-bearish domains

                Comment: DJU-(Chart) force vector dipped into bearish domains on weekending Dec 28, 2018. Without any force vectors in bullish domains, the stock market bear is enjoying yet more capacity to enthusiastically attack the stock market bull.


Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Relative to Vector Pressure7): 8-above pressure, 2-below pressure

                Comment: Last week’s strong bullishness propelled force above pressure for eight of the major indices. With that, the stock market bear is facing formidable resistance.


Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Position8): 0-bullish domains, 10-bearish domains

                Comment: This is the predominant attribute to monitor. The stock market bull cannot sustain itself with bearish pressure.


Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Direction9): 9-bullish, 1-bearish

                Comment: Nine of the ten reversed direction on weekending Jan 4, 2019. That, alone, has no influence on the next bull signals. However, it offers the stock market bull a glimmer of hope.


Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Direction10): 3-bullish, 7-bearish

            Comment: Three shifting bullishly last week adds to the stock market bull’s hope.


Click this sentence to review how to understand the above terms.

Click this sentence to understand how to read the charts.


Mid-term Indicant Configured Condition of Major Indices: Force vectors and vector pressure are the predominant attributes to monitor. Force shifted back into a bearish direction last week and most remain below pressure. New bull signals require force above pressure and index values Blue.


Whipsawed – Review of Wild Swings Last Week

This section highlights last week’s biggest gainers and losers within each group of stocks and funds tracked by the Mid-term Indicant. The groups are the NASDAQ100- Stocks, the Indicant Selected Stocks (mainly energy and former NASDAQ100 stocks, coded ISTK), the Dow Jones 30-Stocks (DJIA), the Dow Utilities (DJU) and Mutual Funds(MF). The below excludes Short-term Indicant tracking of ETF’s and the major indices, which are updated periodically throughout each week.



Bed-Bath-Beyond, NAS#53-BBBY-(Chart), was up 27.4% last week and down 73.5% since the Indicant’s Oct 2015 sell signal. It was last week’s largest gainer among the NASDAQ100 stocks. Despite that, continue avoiding this Yellow Bear. The most bearish NASDAQ100 stock was Barrick Gold, NAS#64-GOLD-(Chart). It was down 5.3% last week and public information about this stock is confusing. This used to be the symbol for Rangold but recent mergers and whatnot has the name Barrick Gold. Unless some credible data is published, this stock is still a Yellow Bear and down 84.9% since the Indicant’s April 2018 sell signal. Continue avoiding this Yellow Bear.


Nabors, ISTK#67-NBR-(Chart), was up 17.7% last week as the most bullish among this group of stocks. Despite that, it is down 72.3% since the Indicant’s May 2017 sell signal. Continue avoiding this Yellow Bear.

Liberty, ISTK#29-LBTYA-(Chart), was down 8.2% as last week’s most bearish in this group. It is also down 32.1% since the Indicant’s Apr 2018 sell signal. Continue avoiding this Yellow Bear.


General Electric, DJIA#02-GE-(Chart), was up 8.7% last week as the most bullish Dow30 stock. Despite that bullishness, it is down 65.8% since the Indicant’s Jul 2017 sell signal. Continue avoiding this Yellow Bear.

Merck, DJIA#27-MRK-(Chart), was down 1.8% last week as the most bearish Dow30 stock. However, it is up 20.4% since the Indicant’s Jul 2018 buy signal. Continue holding this Red Bull.


Williams Co, DJU#11-WMB-(Chart), was up 6.3% last week as the most bullish Dow Utility stock. It is down 6.1% since the Indicant’s Oct 2018 sell signal. Continue avoiding this Yellow Bear. PG&E, DJU#07-PCG-(Chart), was down 27.9% as the most bearish Dow Utility stock last week and down 67.1% since the Indicant’s Dec 2017 sell signal.  Continue avoiding this Yellow Bear.


Fidelity Energy Services, MF#40-FSESX-(Chart), was up 8.4% as the most bullish Indicant-tracked mutual fund. However, it is down 29.1% since the Indicant’s Oct 2018 sell signal. Continue avoiding this Yellow Bear. Pro Funds Ultra Short of NASDAQ100, MF#22-USPIX-(Chart), was down 5.3% as last week’s most bearish mutual fund and down 98.7% since the Indicant’s Apr 2009 sell signal. Continue avoiding this Yellow Bear.



Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Last Five Years

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows in this section. It highlights historical performance since 2002. Simply scroll down the webpage to see graphical and detail content of this section. The below describes the same for the past five years. If a particular year interest you, click this sentence, which will show you all of the prior weekly reports dating back to 2002 along with Indicant performance levels at the time of those reports. From there, you can click the year of interest and then to the specific time-period you are interested in. Please note that prior to the Weekly Stock Market Report, dated Aug 12, 2018, ten years of history was replaced with five years of history. Again, historical weekly reports, dating to 2002 remain available on the website. As 2008’s great bear market fades beyond the 10th anniversary, just as the NASDAQ’s 2002 drop of 89% was also no longer reported in 2012, it is no longer necessary to report 2008 here. These historical references, however, do remain on the website. 


The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no-sell signals this weekend. Clicking this sentence is where the Mid-term Indicant buy and sell signals are displayed.  


The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 172 of the 321-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. Stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 237.0% that annualizes to 41.6%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 172-stocks and funds for an average of 296.1-weeks. There have been 0-buy signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.


The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 149-stocks and funds of 321-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 18.2% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 57.5-weeks ago. There have been four-sell signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.


One year ago, on Jan 12, 2018 the Mid-term Indicant was holding 272-stocks and funds of the 321-tracked for an average of 224.5-weeks. They were up by an average of 198.7% (annualized at 46.0%). There were 41-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down by an average of 27.4% since their respective sell signals an average of 152.1-weeks earlier, one year ago. There were seven buy signals and one sell signal on this weekend in 2018. There had been nine-buy signals and one-sell signal for the year through this weekend in 2018.


The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 251-stocks on Jan 13, 2017. They were up 152.0% since their buy signals an average of 198.9-weeks earlier, annualizing at 41.0%. There were 47-avoided stocks on this weekend since their sell signals an average of 70.0-weeks earlier. There were four buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2016. There had been six-buy signals and no-sell signals through this weekend in 2017.


The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 202-stocks and funds of the 338-tracked on Jan 15, 2016. They were up by an average of 151.9%, annualizing at 34.4%, since their respective buy signals an average of 229.6-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 111-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 25.8% since their respective sell signals an average of 64.5-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and 25-sell signals on this weekend in 2016. There was one-year-to-date buy signal and 45-sell signals through this weekend in 2016.


The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 251-stocks and funds of the 302-tracked on Jan 9, 2015. They were up by an average of 138.4%, annualizing at 38.6%, since their respective buy signals an average of 186.5-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 38-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 18.0% since their respective sell signals an average of 65.7-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and one sell signal on this weekend in 2015. There had been a total of zero-buy signals and one-sell signals through this weekend in 2015.


There were 317-stocks and funds with hold signals of the 338-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant on Jan 10, 2014 since their buy signals an average of 145.7-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 106.1% (annualized at 37.9%). There were 20-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 29.0% from their respective sell signals an average of 77.7-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and one sell signal on this weekend in 2014. There had been zero-buy signals and one-sell signals through this weekend in 2014.


The above performance reflects status at the time of the updates. Abandoned securities have no impact to the above performance statistics and the historical report card. They always represent status at the time of that status and never changes. When securities become NLT (no longer traded), their performance levels are excluded from the report card at the time they become NLT. There are no retroactive adjustments. The number of stocks and funds tracked from week to week may differ because they are no longer traded or listed on major stock exchanges.     


The Indicant started retaining records of abandoned stocks and funds in 2012. There are advantages of retaining records by expressing the consequences of an organization employing dilettante management and related corporate leeching. All organizations eventually expire. The primary causes of such expirations are corporate leeching, stupidity, and arrogance (without cause). {Note: the same is true of governments that fall prey to either economic leeching (FDR) and/or excessive egomaniacal behavior by its leaders (Hitler)}. Click here to see abandoned securities.


Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals

Buying and selling have been limited for the past few years, as the bull’s perseverance has prevented a solid bear market since 2009. That has been reducing the number of stocks in temporary decline to earn new buy signals since they have been enjoying hold signals for several years. As stated for several weeks, an increase in opportunities are emerging depending on the political spectrum. The Trump agenda will be slowed in the 2018-mid-term elections with Pelosi as House Speaker. As stated for several weeks, “that will inspire the stock market bear.” As of Nov 23, 2018, the Dow was down over 1700 points since the mid-term election. However, continuing with a republican senate should prevent Trump’s impeachment. Despite that prevention, the stock market bear will be delighted at Pelosi in charge of the House of Representatives. The good news is that Trump will be smart enough to point out that since Pelosi has been in charge, things have worsened which should lead to a clean republican sweep in the 2020-election. That should completely demolish the democratic-communist party. With that, a year and a half of stock market bearishness should elevate buying opportunities around mid-2019, depending on the depth of the baby bear now underway.


Clicking this sentence will take you to this weekend’s Mid-term Indicant buy/sell signals.


The Short-term Indicant signals buy and sell for ETF’s, almost daily, provided the ETF’s enjoy a buy signal or endure a sell signal. They are not included in the Mid-term Indicant summaries. These short-term models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts, while the Mid-term Indicant includes fundamentals and longer-term technical data to reject short-term trader nervousness. The Daily Stock Market Report reports status for the short-term model.


The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 229.3% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 525.7% and the S&P500 is up 234.2% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 428.3% since October 9, 2002.


The NASDAQ was bullish by 6.9% through this weekend in 2001’s presidential post-election year. It finished 2001 down by 21.1%, which was congruent with the standards of post-election-year-bearishness. As many of you recall, the markets succumbed to the stock market bear during the most part of 2001.


The NASDAQ was up 3.7% through this weekend in 2002’s mid-term election-year. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The NASDAQ stock market bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with historical standards of finding bottoms during mid-term election years. It fell over 80% from its all-time high on March 9, 2000 by late 2002.


The NASDAQ was up 8.4% on this weekend in 2003’s presidential pre-election year. It finished 2003 up by 50.0%, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results, despite the start of the Iraq war in March of that year. It was up on this weekend in 2004 by 4.2% in the meandering bear market of 2004 that dampened bullish enthusiasm, but the NASDAQ finished 2004’s presidential pre-election year up by 8.6%. This was congruent with presidential election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards.


It was down 4.4% on this weekend in 2005’s post-election year, which was consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains during post-election years. It finished up by 1.4% in 2005. This was an excellent year, based on post-election year historical standards of bearishness. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets. Some of you recall a new bullish cycle originated in August 2005 that carried through until mid-2007. The stock market enjoyed that nice bullish ride, following the meandering bear market of 2004 through Aug 2005.


In 2006, the NASDAQ was up 5.7% on this weekend. It finished up in 2006 by 9.5%, which maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year.  


The NASDAQ was up 2.9% through this weekend in 2007, finishing that year up by 9.8%. This week was extraordinarily bearish in that year, as the stock market bear had already been dominating since July of that year. The stock market peaked in 2007 from the 2003-bull leg after democrats took control of Congress in early 2007. George W. went along with them as opposed to repelling them. That inspired the stock market bear and added depth to its decline. Of course, the housing bubble contributed. Politicians originated it, like many adverse economic conditions.


The NASDAQ was down by 8.0% on this weekend in 2008. It finished 2008 down by 40.5%. That was extreme contrarian performance to the standards of historical election year bullishness. The overall stock market endured the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832. The history from 1832 used other indices until the DJIA’s inception in 1896.


It was down 3.2% on this weekend in 2009, while finishing that year up by 43.9%. Keep in mind, the extraordinary bullish cycle in 2009 finished that year down by 20.6% from its prior weekly cyclical peak on October 31, 2007. The 2008 bear market more accurately reflected economic fundamentals than the 2009 bull market. Much of the 2009 bull market correlated well with declining political popularity.


The NASDAQ was up 1.9% on this weekend in 2010. It finished that year up by 16.9%, which was consistent with mid-term election year bullishness; especially in the second half of such years. The stock market was explosively bullish through the mid-term election year when it was obvious the Republicans would regain control of the House and possibly the Senate.


It was up 2.4% on this weekend in 2011. Unfortunately, the NASDAQ finished 2011 down by 7.3%. Some prior reports errantly stated the NASDAQ finished up in 2011. The S&P500 finished flat in 2011 while the DJIA finished up by 5.5% that year. This was an unusual conclusion for a presidential pre-election year. The enhancement of socialism and the threat of communism confused the stock market.


The NASDAQ was up 3.7% on this weekend in 2012, finishing that year up by 15.9%, which was classically bullish for the presidential election year. One reason for its bearish tail in the second half of that year was the re-election of the incumbent president. Four more years of incumbency invites exponential increases in corruption with expanded economic turmoil.  


It was up 3.5% on this weekend in 2013, finishing that normally bearish presidential post-election year up by a whopping 38.3%. Extraordinary stock market bullishness in 2013 correlated well with sequestration. The Dow and S&P500 closed out 2013 up by 26.5% and 29.6%, respectively, and diabolically opposed to a long history of presidential post-election year bearishness. Politically contributing elements were 1) sequestration and 2) continuing democratic losses at the city, county, state, and federal levels. Fortunately, communistic orations by the democratic party were repulsed by an increasingly number of smarter voters after their profound stupidity in the 2006-mid-term elections, allowing the democrats a majority in both the house and senate.  


The NASDAQ was down 0.001% in 2014, finishing that year up 13.4% even though starting out the year very slowly and enduring some significant near-term bearish cycles throughout 2014. The presidential use of executive orders countered normal stock market bullishness that usually accompanies political partisanship. The executive branch may undo the political cycle model if constitutional breeches accelerate. Obama’s successor could use an executive order to arrest Obama, Holder, and others for breaking the law and violation their oaths. Of course, aggravating constitutional authority will eventually erode the designed intention of the founding fathers. Human kind will regret it but will be too stupid to recognize their culpability in their economic decline.


The NASDAQ was down 1.5% on this weekend in 2015. It finished 2015 up by 5.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 2.2% for the first bearish conclusion in a presidential pre-election year since 1939.


The NASDAQ was down 2.1% on this weekend in 2016 with polls suggesting Hillary Clinton as the obvious president elect. It finished 2016 up by 7.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 13.4% due, primarily, to a late year bullish explosion on the defeat of Hillary Clinton for the presidency and continued erosion of the democratic party.


The NASDAQ was up 1.7% on this weekend in 2017, finishing that presidential post-election year up by 28.2% with Donald Trump’s first year as president. Deregulating and undoing prior political damage to the economy is causation to that profound bullishness.


The NASDAQ was up 2.5% on this weekend in 2018 to start this presidential mid-term election year. The Blue Wave was reported as coming most of that year. With that “communistic” threat, the stock market bull was absent most of the year with a bearish conclusion. The NASDAQ closed down by 3.9%, while the S&P500 was down 6.2% and the Dow down 5.6% for 2018.


The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 2.9% this year. The S&P500 is up 3.6% for the year and the NASDAQ is up 5.1% this year. The S&P600 is up 6.0% this year.  The Dow Transports is up 5.0% and Dow Utilities is up 0.1% this year. The S&P400 is up 6.0% this year.


The Dow is up 69.4% since its prior weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is up 143.8% since its last cyclical peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P500 is up 65.9% since its Oct 9, 2007 peak. The 2007 peaks coincide with political coziness in Washington D.C., which solidified in early 2007, as George W. Bush’s liberal tendencies melded well with the newly elected socialistic leaning congress with a similar fiscal liberalism and the dangerous practice of fascism.


All major indices are holding above their 2007-peaks. The Dow Utilities was the last of the major indices to return to 2007-peak levels. It took about seven years to do so but fell back below its 2007-peak in early Jan 2016. It is again above its Jul 19, 2007-peak by 29.1%.


The NASDAQ is above its 2000-peak by 38.1%. The NASDAQ100 finally crossed above its March 2000 all-time high on Nov 6, 2015, fell below shortly thereafter, and then crossed back above that peak on Jul 29, 2016. It also fell below that peak weekending Sep 9, 2016 and again crossing back above its March 24, 2000 peak on weekending Sep 16, 2016. It is above that peak by 40.3%. The S&P100 finally toppled its Mar 23, 2000 peak on May 2, 2013. It is now above that peak by 38.0%. Those paltry gains have not kept up with inflation. With that consideration they are still down since their 2000-peaks.


Although exact simultaneous bottoming did not occur on March 9, 2009, tracking from that pivot-point has been and will continue to be appropriate. This inexactness lends credence to the reverse tangential projections with a short-term view and increasingly so. Consequently, March 9, 2009 is the pivot date to monitor performance since the March 2009 bottoming from the 2007-2008 bear cycle. When prices fall below reverse tangential projections, new pivot points will be defined.


The Dow is up 266.5% since March 9, 2009, which is the “bottoming” pivot date from the great bear market of 2007/8. The NASDAQ is up 449.5% and the S&P500 is up 283.8% since then. The S&P600, Small Cap Index, is up 396.2% since March 9, 2009. That March 2009-current bull leg was indeed powerful, but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth. The Federal Reserve may be held in check by fearing Trump tweets and not accelerate rate increases during his first term. So far, the Fed remains passive, but recent rate hikes offer some arguments against being passive.           


The stock market bull is usually aroused and significantly so when congress and the president are at odds. This leads to a “do-nothing” government, which is usually bullish. The only positive economic contribution politicians can do is undoing their prior damage and the damage caused by their predecessors. The bullishness that occurs during do-nothing periods is due to the absence of additional economic damage by politicians. It will be interesting if a republican administration with a republican congress can upset 180-years of being bearish when those two bodies agree. So far, they are in disagreement and more or less disallowing an undoing of prior political damage. That dispute may indeed prevent resumption of more political damage. Also, Trump is having some success in deregulation, which is always bullish, but democrats are about to take over the U.S. House of Representatives and the last time that happened in 2007 the stock market peaked ahead of its 2008-bearish behavior.


Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.


Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for several years, do not fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it does. The markets, both free and controlled, are not constant. A massive bear market, depending on the magnitude of combined interest rates and inflation, will eventually occur. The more politicians attempt to generate the markets as a constant, the less constant they become. The combined absolute value of interest rates, inflation/deflation remain less than 8.0% and thus no related threat of depressed economic behavior exists now. That is a temporary condition.


Although increasing above the norms of Obama economic sluggishness, the reported CPI remains relatively healthy, while the PPI remains non-threatening. As stated, several times in this report, Trumponomics will be inflationary. Despite that eventuality, inflation remains tame for the time being. Recently reported CPI was deflationary, due in part, to falling oil prices. As of Jan 3, 2019, House Democrats will stifle the Trump agenda, but the economic elements may not be. The markets anticipated the Pelosi promotion with the VIX bull signal in late Oct 2018.


The Prime Rate, Discount Rate, and Effective Rate increased another 25-basis point on week-ending Dec 21, 2018. That followed similar increases on week-endings Dec 23, 2016, Mar 17, 2017, Jun 15, 2017, Dec 15, 2017, Mar 23, 2018,  Jun 15, 2018 and Sep 30, 2018. You should notice the spike in the 3-month T-Bill shortly after Trump’s election, although pretty much to the Bernanke plans originating in 2008-09. The 2020-mean forecast continues escaping from its prior near zero projections. The Fed remains sensitive to political pressure. The annual inflation rate is being reported with only 2.2% to date this year. Oil prices are down 16.8% from this time a year ago, which has a very high correlation to inflation. There is more about oil later.


The 3-Month T-Bill remains low and non-threatening to the stock market bull at 2.34%. It’s gallop to the north remains bit slower than the policy hikes. There is a future point where its rise will punish the stock market bull. If the Fed slows future rate hikes and OPEC has their way with increasing oil prices, inflationary pressures will also be unfriendly to the stock market bull. The opposite of all that remains in effect.


Fortunately, oil prices are in decline. That should dampen Fed enthusiasm to continue increasing interest rates, but production cuts are designed to stabilize oil prices followed by increases. And apparently, the Fed is ignoring both the stock market bear and falling oil prices with their relentless desire to increase the cost of money. That should change if commonsense comes into play into their limited three-pound brains.


The Euro fell into Yellow Bear status on week-ending Jun 15, 2018. It is now attempting to escape the wrath of the Yellow Bear. The prevailing bearish trend started the enjoyment of shifting bullishly for the first time in nine years in early March 2018 like it has four times since 2008 only to be followed by its resumption of its long-term bearish trend. Again, that is occurring with both Red and Yellow in a bearish slope. The 2020-mean forecast is at $1.17 with more aggressive intrinsic modeling, projecting $0.65.


The Canadian dollar fell below the zone of neutrality on weekending Jul 15, 2017 with its strengthening. It returned to the neutral zone in late October 2017, while moving above (weakening) Red again on Dec 6, 2018. Its 2020-mean forecast is $1.31CA with projected polynomials forecasting much weaker values ranging from $1.78CA to $1.87CA.


The Japanese Yen statistical mean forecast is at 110-yen/dollar by 2020 while the aggressive polynomials are projecting a range of 148-159-Yen/U.S. dollar. It shifted from the zone of neutrality to strengthening in late Feb 2018 and continues residence there with some recent steadying with minimal vacillations around Red (weakening). It remains in a tight trading zone, while weakening just above Red on weekending Sep 30, 2018 and again on Dec 6, 2018. It strengthens when falling. Trade tensions remain influential on international exchanges. Despite that, international currencies are remaining stable with the yen very stable the past three years.


British Pound returned to Yellow Bear status in mid-June 2016 with the BREXIT vote. However, it moved above Yellow on week-ending May 5, 2017 and crossed into Red Bull status on Sep 14, 2017, as the U.S. Dollar continued weakening even against this weak currency at that time. It lost Red Bull status on week-ending May 11, 2018 by falling into the zone of neutrality and then returning to Yellow Bear status on weekending Jul 7, 2018. It continues to resist deepening its Yellow Bear status, but a Yellow Bear nonetheless. Its 2020 statistical mean forecast is at $1.27 with more aggressive polynomials, projecting around $0.87-$0.91 by Dec 31, 2020. It falling to Yellow Bear status and not yet recovering suggests its long-term bearish cycle will not be overcome on the short-term horizon.


The Bitcoin toppled $16,000 on most exchanges in late 2017 in skyrocketing fashion. It has weakened since then. It lost Red Bull status in late Mar/early Apr 2018 and finally fell into Yellow Bear status on Dec 7, 2018 at below $4,000. It has been stable for the past several months but with a steady bearish drift.


Gold climbed out of Yellow Bear status on weekending Dec 21, 2018 on strong bearishness in the equity markets and now enjoying Red Bull status.  That suggests added fear on both the political and inflationary fronts with Bernie Sanders-like comments from communistic democrats that everything is free. Gold reflects a growing fear of too many stupid people buying into that lunacy. At some point, rising rates will strengthen the dollar, influencing gold’s bearishness. That remains as the current theme but being challenged a bit with potential weakening of the U.S. dollar. The 2020-mean forecast is $1,297/oz. while the more aggressive polynomials are projecting a 2020 value approximating $770-$802/oz. You can keep up with an approximation of this on the Indicant Daily Stock Market Report by tracking ETF#11-GLD.


Oil returned to Red Bull status on Oct 5, 201 7, but fell below Red on Oct 25, 2018 and quickly dropped to Yellow Bear status on weekending Nov 17, 2018. It continues deepening its Yellow Bear status, where there is nothing to prevent it from becoming even more bearish. The 2020-intrinsic and aggressive polynomial forecast ranges from $0 to $0. That is correct, but like all forecast, it is erroneous. The 2020-statistical mean forecast is at $52/bbl. This forecast continues to avoid the decline it endured from 2013 through early 2018. Saudi Royalty is most likely targeting $90/BBL for the time being but lost a little ground on that the past four weeks. They have now had to resort to production cuts.


The CRB Bridge Futures fell into Yellow Bear status on Nov 23, 2018 and deepening that status. This is reflecting deflation. The 2020-mean forecast is at $189, while the more aggressive polynomials are forecasting zero by 2020.


Mortgage rates lost Red Bull status on weekending Jan 4, 2019 after abandoning Yellow Bear status on Nov 3, 2016 with a sharp rise to the enjoyment of Red Bull status for lenders and not for those desiring home ownerships. They are now approaching Yellow Bear status, but most likely a temporary dip.


The consumer price index and producer price index are computing without the combined absolute value of threatening interest rates and inflation or deflation of 8%. Considerations of deflationary threats are not out of line, though. Fortunately, there are millions around the world willing to work and be consumptive. With that, the strong may offset the weak.


Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant again signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010 but had to signal sell on Dec 16, 2011 for a disappointing loss of around 15%. It endured another disappointing loss of 9.7% between the Jan 27, 2012 buy signal and the Mar 16, 2012 sell signal. It again endured a sell signal on Feb 8, 2013, as it fell below its short-term green curve. It was down 30.9% since that Feb 2013 sell signal, when it enjoyed a buy signal on May 6, 2016. It endured a sell signal on Nov 25, 2016, after moving up 10% from that sell signal. That triggered a buy signal on Jan 13, 2017. This fund has remained flat to mildly bearish since then, enduing a sell signal on Jun 15, 2018 after falling to Yellow Bear status. It is down 24.5% since that sell signal.


Fidelity Gold Fund #28 also endured a sell signal on Jun 15, 2018. It is down 4.8% since that sell signal.


Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, endured a sell signal on Nov 23, 2018. It is down 3.7% since then.


Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, endured a sell signal on Oct 19, 2018. It is down 29.1% since then.


State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, endured a sell signal on Nov 2, 2018. It is down 9.7% since that sell signal.


Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, endured a sell signal on Nov 2, 2018. It is down 10.9% since that sell signal.


The Near-term Indicant signaled sell for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Oct 11, 2018. It is down 14.0% since then. The Quick-term Indicant signaled sell on Oct 25, 2018. It is down 6.6% since then.


The Near-term Indicant and Quick-term Indicant signaled buy for GLD-ETF#11-Gold on Dec 6, 2018. It is up 4.0% since then, annualizing at 39.7%.


Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.    


The Mid-term Indicant is signaling bull for only one of the ten of the major indices. It is the DJU. It is down by 2.1% since its bull signal 27.0-weeks ago, annualizing at -4.1%.


The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $66.140-million. That beats buy and hold performance of $3.581-million on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $3.371-million. That beats buy and hold’s $1.544-million on a Jan 6, 1950 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $1.958-million. That beats buy and hold’s $700,412 on a Jan 29, 1971 $10,000 investment.  The MTI-Dow Transports is at $34.553-million. That is better than buy and hold $665,602 since a $10,000 investment on Oct 19, 1928. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1,731.2%, 113.8%, 181.9%, and 4,751.8%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.


There are two reasons why the Dow Transports is included in the above summary. It is used by the Dow Theory Forecast, which has merit, albeit slowly. The second reason is the statistical friendliness and its near-perfect sinusoidal waves. It tends to stay committed to its underlying cycle of bullishness or bearishness more than other indices.


The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals as buy and hold and the Indicant moves the same magnitude. The Indicant’s advantage only occurs during bear signals as the cash holds constant, while the stock market dives.


Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.


Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.


Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.


Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.


Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks  

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.


Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history. Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.


The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 98.7% since then. Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy and hold during 2009, 2013, and 2017, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation, for the most part, in those three presidential post-election years. Polls and recent elections are highlighting left leaning political movements. Although their accuracy is indeed questionable, a return to politburo wannabes in congress will offer this fund and others like it, profound growth opportunities at some future point, but not right now. Of course, if that happens, you would not enjoy the opportunity to enjoy the wealth this would provide you.


Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds


Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.


Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.


The Dow is up 729.0% (annualized at 26.7%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,419-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.


Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.


The next section is the last daily stock market report for this past week


Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Archives

{Repeated here are from the last trading day’s daily stock market report from the previous week. Click this link to see all the daily reports from the last 12-months. Retaining here in the weekly report allows for longer retention periods of the daily stock market reports that describe the short-term cycle at the end of each week}.


Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Summary

Fri-Jan 11-Throughout the week, volume did not strongly support a continuation of the stock market bull. That is one reason why there have been very few new buy signals since last Monday’s Near-term Indicant buying spree among ETF’s. The majority of non-contrarian ETF’s remain as Yellow Bears and thus the reason for continued avoidance of 21-non-contrarian ETF’s along the Quick-term Indicant cycle. This coming week will be interesting as several bullishly mature force vectors shifted into a bearish direction today. That prevented some new near-term and quick-term buy signals.


Mon-Jan 7-Bearish unanimity was shattered today with several bull signals along the near-term cycle. Keep in mind, bearish unanimity remains in effect along the more stable quick-term cycle among the major indices. The reason for the Near-term Indicant bull signals was due to prices climbing above blue and force higher than pressure. Details are discussed in the next section. Additionally, there were several Near-term buy signals and a couple of Quick-term buy signals. Finally, keep in mind, until vector pressures work their way back into bullish domains, the stock market bear has not yet hibernated.


Please review the below sections for more insight.


Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.


Index Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant signaled two new bulls and one new bear.


Number of Near-term Bulls: 6 of 12

Duration of Near-term Bulls: 0.6-wks-avg.

Near-term Bull Performance: 1.9%; Annualized Performance: 170.2%


Number of Near-term Bears: 3 of 12

Average Duration of Near-term Bears: 5.1-wks. avg.

Near-term Bears Average Performance: -2.5%

Near-term Performance Advantage: Jan 11, 2019-Stock Market Bull, replacing Oct 5, 2018-Stock Market Bear


Near-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses  

Near-term Indicant Configured Bullish Blue Bulls: 11 of 12.  

Near-term Indicant Configured Bearish Green Bears: 1 of 12 

Near-term Position Advantage: Jan 4, 2019-Stock Market Bull (Change from Dec 7, 2018)


Index Quick-term Report Card Summary  

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.


Number of Quick-term Bulls: 0 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term Bulls: N/A-wks.

Quick-term Bull Performance: N/A%; Quick-term Annualized Performance: N/A%


Number of Quick-term Bears: 11 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term: Bears: 7.6-weeks-avg.

Quick-term Bear Performance: -3.1%


Quick-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 0 of 12 

Configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 10 of 12


Quick-term Configured Advantage: Nov 12, 2018-Quick-term Stock Market Bear


Short-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Non-contrarian force vectors in bullish domains: 11 of 11

Non-contrarian force vectors higher than vector pressure: 11 of 11

Non-contrarian vector pressure in bullish domains: 8 of 11 (Major attribute 2019-0104F)

Non-contrarian force vectors with bullish direction: 3 of 11                                    

Non-contrarian vector pressure with bullish direction: 11 of 11

Short-term Advantage: Short-term Stock Market Bull-effective Jan 11, 2019, replacing Nov 15, 2018-Stock Market Bear support.


Indicant Volume Indicators

Fri-Jan 11-Increased volume was of concern on flat stock market behavior. That is not very supportive of the stock market bull from a volume perspective.


Thu-Jan 10-Volume was down on mild stock market bullishness, adding to “hesitancy” concerns.


Wed-Jan 9-Volume is holding steady on mild stock market bullishness. There is a bit of hesitancy here in support of the stock market bull.


Tue-Jan 8-Volume was up a bit on stock market bullishness. That bodes well for the stock market bull.


Mon-Jan 7-Uneventful volume on mild stock market bullishness offers nothing in obviating directional intensity.


Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

ETF Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant generated eight buy signals and one sell signal.


The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 15-ETF’s. Those enjoying hold signals are up by an average of 2.1% since their buy signals an average of 1.7-weeks ago, annualizing at 61.5%.


The NTI is avoiding 8-ETFs. They are down by an average of 8.0% since their sell signals an average of 13.5-weeks ago.


Near-term ETF Cycle Analyses

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 0

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 0


Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 2

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 0


Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 26

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 0


Near-term Advantage: Jan 4, 2019-Stock Market Bull, replacing Dec 7, 2018-Stock Market Bear


ETF Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant generated three buy signals and one sell signal.


The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for seven-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 2.6% since their buy signals an average of 3.1-weeks ago, annualizing at 43.4%.


The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 21-ETFs. They are down by an average of 5.2% since their sell signals an average of 12.5-weeks ago.


Quick-term ETF Cycle Analyses  

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 0


Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 1


Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 2

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 18


Quick-term Advantage: Quick-term stock market bear, effective Oct 10, 2018.


Reverse Tangential Projections                 

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections.


Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.


Other links:     

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the S&P500 Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Understanding Content on the Short-term Indicant Charts


Indicant Conclusion

As stated the past four weeks, “the stock market bull cannot dominate until vector pressure is in bullish domains and with prices above the short-cycle blue curve. That remains absent on all major indices.” The Dow Jones Utilities-(Chart) lost those attributes (three weeks ago), but it has not yet endured a new bear signal. It is very close to enduring that, however.” As long as the DJU remains as a safe haven, the stock market bear cannot completely dominate.


As stated, the past three weeks, “although the stock market bear is discerning and fundamentally perplexing to many, the political fundamentals are a major threat to the stock market bull. The Dow Utilities is the only reason the stock market bear cannot completely dominate the stock market bull but getting close.”


Click this sentence to keep up with the Short-term Indicant.


Click this sentence to maintain stock market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.


Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.


Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.



To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc., click the following hyperlink: 


Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the website, so you can always find your way back.


Stop Loss Management

This was moved to the bottom of this report as its content rarely changes. You will be notified when stop losses should be tightened or loosened.


The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized capital gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the greater value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences.


For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.


Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying. Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.


For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.


If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.


Happy Investing,











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