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Jan 9, 2022 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 01, Issue 02 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

Stock Market Bull Enduring Doubts

Bullish unanimity was lost last week with strong stock market bearishness in the latter part of the week that followed strong stock market bullishness in the early part of last week. That early week bullishness was contrary to last week’s assertion that a few more days of stock market bearishness was expected due to declining force vectors along the short-term cycle. The expectation was fulfilled but with a bit more bearish magnitude than normal. The short-term cycle continues to expect a few more days of bearish behavior.

 

Several Mid-term Indicant attributes shifted from strong bullish support to non-support. The next section describes the major Mid-term Indicant attributes. A few unsettling events occurred last week. Short-term interest rates moved upward by a significant amount. That paralleled oil price increases. The threat of inflation and rising interest rates is never friendly to the stock market bull.

 

The short-term cycle remains configured with a bearish bias over the next few days. Contrary to last week’s report, there is no longer an expectation of the stock market bull resuming dominance following short-term bearish expectations.  Despite an absence of the expectation of the stock market bull regaining dominance, there is also an absence of an expected dominance by the stock market bear.

 

The stock market bull desires stability in energy costs. It can favorably adjust to higher oil price and even some modest interest rate rises. However, abrupt changes of a significant magnitude will always result in the arousal of the stock market bear.  

 

Please read the next section for more insight.

 

Mid-term Indicant Status of the Major Indices

The major stock market indices can be accessed by clicking this sentence.

Click this sentence to review how to understand the below terms.

 

Click this sentence to understand the details on the charts.

 

Mid-term Indicant Red Bulls-Click for Explanation1): 10-Red Bulls, 0-Non-Red Bull

Comment: All ten Red Bulls are supportive of the stock market bull. The ten Red Bulls are above the bullish red curve by an average of 14.1%. Red Bulls cannot endure bear signals. With that, the stock market can drop approximately by an average of 14.1% before enduring bear signals. Current holdings are up 369.4%.

 

Mid-term Indicant Blue Bulls-Click for Explanation2): 5-Blue Bulls, 5-Non-Blue Bulls

            Comment: The loss of four blue bulls this past week is worrisome to the stock market bull. The five Blue Bulls are above the blue curve by 1.4%. The stock market bull will become depressed if more are lost in coming weeks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Yellow Bears-Click for Explanation3): 0-Yellow Bears, 10-Non-Yellow Bears

              Comment: All major indices are above Yellow by an average of 43.8%. The absence of Yellow Bears strongly suggest economic depression is not possible now. Stock market dynamics are never wrong in predicting that, but sometimes predicts a non-existing recession. Recession or not, the Indicant’s focus is to avoid bears. It will not wait for a 43.8% drop before signaling bear. Rest assured a future Yellow Bear lurks, but not along the mid-term horizon at this time. Also, keep in mind, severe stock market bears can drop 50.0% in a matter of weeks, while a stock market bull’s 50% increase is much slower. Keep in mind a 50% drop requires a 100% increase to displace the 50% drop.

 

Mid-term Indicant Green Bears-Click for Explanation4): 0-Green Bears, 10-Non-Green Bears

              Comment: Non-existing Green Bears are non-bearish. The ten major indices are above green by 7.7%. Green is where a bear is typically signaled, but it rises quickly, making it unlikely a bear signal would be triggered after an 7.7% stock market drop. As earlier stated, Red Bulls are immune to bear signals. Green prices rose faster than market prices the past several weeks. With that, the next bear signal will not occur until prices fall below Red and Green.

 

Mid-term Indicant Red to Green Position5): 2-Red Higher than Green; 8-Green Higher Than Red

              Comment: The DJT-(Chart) joined  the DJU-(Chart) with the only two with Red higher than Green. Each Green crossing above Red evinces overbought market conditions. The DJU’s recent bullishness has renewed its opportunity for its green curve to cross above Red. That will confirm overall an overheated stock market bull. That threat remains.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Position6): 8-bullish domain, 2-bearish domains

              Comment:  Those in bullish domains reduced by one last week, which is unsettling to the stock market bull.  

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Relative to Vector Pressure7): 5-above pressure, 5-below pressure

              Comment: Last week’s strong bullish support was replaced this past week with neutrality between the stock market bull and bear.

           

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Position8): 8-bullish domains, 2-bearish domains

              Comment: This remains supportive for the stock market bull with a majority in bullish domains.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Direction9): 2-bullishly directed, 8-bearishly directed

              Comment: The reversed dramatically this past week and now threatening the stock market bull.

 

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Direction10): 7-bullishly directed, 3-bearishly directed

            Comment: This improved by six from two weeks ago and thus remains supportive for the stock market bull..

 

Click this sentence to review how to understand the above terms.

Click this sentence to understand how to read the charts.

 

Mid-term Indicant Configured Condition of Major Indices: Red Bulls continue dominating and as long as that remains in effect the stock market bull cannot be defeated by the stock market bear. Short-term and mid-term attributes are increasing their support for the stock market bull.

 

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Last Five Years

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows in this section. It highlights historical performance since 2002. Simply scroll down the webpage to see graphical and detail content of this section. The below describes the same for the past five years. If a particular year interest you, click this sentence, which will show you all of the prior weekly reports dating back to 2002 along with Indicant performance levels at the time of those reports. From there, you can click the year of interest and then to the specific time-period you are interested in. Please note that after the Weekly Stock Market Report, dated Aug 12, 2018, ten years of history was replaced with five years of history. Again, historical weekly reports, dating to 2002 remain available on the website. As 2008’s great bear market fades beyond the 10th anniversary, just as the NASDAQ’s 2002 drop of 89% was also no longer reported in 2012, it is no longer necessary to report 2008 here. These historical references, however, do remain on the website. The website has stock market history dating back to 1900.

 

The Mid-term Indicant generated one buy signals and no sell signals this weekend. Clicking this sentence is where the Mid-term Indicant buy and sell signals are displayed.  

 

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 253 of the 315-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. Stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 369.4% that annualizes to 108.8%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 253-stocks and funds for an average of 176.6-weeks. There has been one buy signal for stocks and funds so far, this year. Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant, hold signals are 80.3% in the market.

 

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 61-stocks and funds of 315-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 21.8% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 132.8-weeks ago. There have been no sell signals for stocks and funds so far, this year. Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant, avoid signals are 19.7% out of the market.

 

One year ago, on Jan 8, 2021, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 253-stocks and funds of the 316-tracked for an average of 149.4-weeks. They were up by an average of 293.4%, annualizing at 102.1%. There were 63-avoided stocks and funds at this time last year. They were down by an average of 36.8% since their sell signals an average of 153.5-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals at this time of year in 2020.  There had been 0-buy signals and 0-sell signals throughout the year on this weekend in 2020. Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant, holds were 80.1% in the market and avoids were 19.9% out of the market, as the COVID-19-stock market bear continued being obliterated by the stock market bull.

 

Two years ago, on Jan 10, 2020, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 253-stocks and funds of the 321-tracked for an average of 293.4-weeks. They were up by an average of 242.0%, annualizing at 52.6%. There were 58-avoided stocks and funds at this time last year. They were down by an average of 34.5% since their sell signals an average of 130.8-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals at this time of year in 2020.  There had been one buy signal and no sell signals throughout this time of  year on this weekend in 2020. Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant, holds were 81.9% in the market and avoids were 18.1% out of the market, as the COVID-19-stock market bear continued being obliterated by the stock market bull.

 

Three years ago, on Jan 11, 2019, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 172-stocks and funds of the 321-tracked for an average of 296.1-weeks. They were up by an average of 237.0% (annualized at 41.6%). There were 149-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down by an average of 18.1% since their respective sell signals an average of 57.5-weeks earlier, one year ago. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2019. There had been no buy signals and no sell signals for the year through this weekend in 2019. Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant, holds were 53.6% in the market and avoids were 46.4% out of the market.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 172-stocks and funds on Jan 5, 2018. They were up 196/8% since their buy signals an average of 233.8-weeks earlier, annualizing at 43.8%. There were 48-avoided stocks and funds on this weekend since their sell signals an average of 121.2-weeks earlier. There were two buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2019. There had been two buy signals and no sell signals in 2018 through this weekend of that year. Hold signals were 85.0% in the market and avoid signals were 15.0% out of the market at this time of year in 2019. Dec 2018 was unusually bearish without fundamental cause. (Note: Last week’s report errantly reported 2019 performance, as opposed to 2018 in this paragraph).

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 249-stocks and funds of the 321-tracked on Jan 6, 2017. They were up by an average of 159.0%, annualizing at 41.5% since their respective buy signals an average of 199.2-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 51-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 15.9% since their respective sell signals an average of 62.0-weeks earlier. There were two buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2017. There had been a total of two-buy signals no sell signals through this weekend in 2017. Hold signals were 83.1% in the market and avoid signals were 16.9% out of the market.

 

The above performance reflects status at the time of the updates. Abandoned securities have no impact to the above performance statistics and the historical report card. They always represent status at the time of that status and never changes. When securities become NLT (no longer traded), their performance levels are excluded from the report card at the time they become NLT. There are no retroactive adjustments. The number of stocks and funds tracked from week to week may differ because they are no longer traded or listed on major stock exchanges.     

 

The Indicant started retaining records of abandoned stocks and funds in 2012. There are advantages of retaining records by expressing the consequences of an organization employing dilettante management and related corporate leeching. All organizations eventually expire. The primary causes of such expirations are corporate leeching, stupidity, and arrogance (without cause). {Note: the same is true of governments that fall prey to either economic leeching (FDR) and/or excessive egomaniacal behavior by its leaders (Hitler)}. Click here to see abandoned securities.

 

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals

Signaling buy and sell has been minimal for several months due to a very strong bull cycle beginning in April 2020-Covid. That bull cycle was with large breadth. The few bottom dwellers are not yet configuring with bullish attributes. Bottom dweller buy signals have been muffled as the stock market bull lost momentum in the past few months. The 2020-21 bull cycle is unprecedented with the strategic implication of strongly increasing capitalism. It may be followed by a stronger bear cycle. Capitalists increase the quality of life. Communist and socialists decrease it. Those latter two, if unchecked, result in no meaningful stock market. All goes to zero.

 

Clicking this sentence will take you to this weekend’s Mid-term Indicant buy/sell signals.

 

The Short-term Indicant signals buy and sell for ETF’s, almost daily, provided the ETF’s enjoy a buy signal or endure a sell signal. They are not included in the Mid-term Indicant summaries. These short-term models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts, while the Mid-term Indicant includes fundamentals and longer-term technical data to reject short-term trader nervousness. The Daily Stock Market Report reports status for the short-term model.

 

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

 

Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for several years, do not fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it does. The markets, both free and controlled, are not constant. The control freaks in political power now have 100% potential to create economic and social calamity with their desired result of a police state. That is why they encourage asset destruction. That would give them absolute power. That is never good for anyone but them.

 

Although increasing above Obama economic sluggishness, the reported CPI remains relatively healthy, despite recent notable inflation. The salient word in the previous sentence is “reported.” Integrity in government reporting is indeed questionable. The PPI, as reported, remains non-threatening to the stock market bull. A democratic controlled congress with a lunatic democratic president adds profound inflationary threats. Despite the eventuality of some factors, inflation remains tame for the time being, as it is being reported, but starting to accelerate as of weekending Apr 17, 2021. The annual inflation rate is being reported at 6.6%. Oil prices are up 54.9% from this time one year ago. Oil is up $42.89/BBL (+119.1%) since Biden’s so-called election.

 

The Prime Rate, Discount Rate, and Effective Rate decreased by 100-basis points over a year ago on Mar 20, 2020, following a 50-basis point cut on weekending Mar 6, 2020.  That followed less aggressive decreases on Aug 2, 2019, Sep 19, 2019, and Nov 2, 2019. These less aggressive decreases were miniscule to the increases on Dec 23, 2016, Mar 17, 2017, Jun 15, 2017, Dec 15, 2017, Mar 23, 2018, Jun 15, 2018, Sep 30, 2018, and Dec 21, 2018. High unemployment, germ warfare from China, overstepping U.S. communistic politicians, and self-proclaimed elites continue confronting the stock market bull. So far, the markets are not believing these threats are sustainable for at least the next nine-months. The Federal Reserve Board announced in early 2021 they will be reactive to economic conditions, as opposed to attempting to forecast them. That is okay because the Fed has never been good at forecasting. They eat well regardless of their performance and without accountability there is always, 100% of the time, an absence of even the lowest level of performance.

 

The 3-Month T-Bill fell to Yellow Bear status on weekending Jul 19, 2019.  After falling deeper into the domain of the Yellow Bear, it started a rebound attempt on weekending Jan 10, 2020, but fell deeper into the domain of the Yellow Bear on weekending Mar 6, 2020, under the influence of China’s germ warfare, called Covid-19, and rapidly falling even more after that and below zero on weekending Mar 19, 2020, with a small bounce north of zero on weekending Apr 3, 2020. Since then, it remains near zero. However, it finally climbed out of that status on weekending Feb 12, 2021, while still in bottom-feeding mode. That is about to change. If it does not, inflation will occur. The charts show some small upward movements at the bottom, but has since fallen back to near zero. The stock market will not tolerate inflation too long. Increasing prices mean nothing to corporate profits if consumers cannot afford or unavailable products.

           

The Euro dropped to Yellow Bear status on weekending Oct 22, 2021, after losing Red Bull status on weekending Jul 31, 2021.  It continues diving into the domain of the Yellow Bear. The 2024-mean forecast is at $1.18 with more aggressive intrinsic modeling, projecting $0.82 to $0.84.

 

The Canadian dollar bounced above Yellow (weakening) during the week of July 17, 2021. That was the first bounce above Yellow since Sep 21, 2020. It surged above Red (additional weakening) during the week of Dec 14, 2021. Its 2024-mean forecast is $1.30CA with projected polynomials forecasting much weaker values ranging from $1.90CA to $1.96CA.

 

The Japanese Yen continues mild weakening since crossing above Red on Apr 2, 2021. Its narrow min-max points from 2017 through mid-2021 remains impressive with that tightness continuing through September 2021, when some additional weakening occurred, but has since then resettled into a tight range. Its statistical mean forecast is at 109-yen/dollar by Dec 2024 while the aggressive polynomials are projecting a range of 153-159-Yen/U.S. dollar. It also strengthened during the week of the U.S. presidential election but has been holding above Red the past several weeks (weakening).

 

The British Pound lost Red Bull status in late July but bouncy around Red until weekending Dec 3, 2021, where it lost commitment to retaining Red Bull status. It fell into Yellow Bear status on weekending Dec 17, 2021. Its statistical mean forecast is at $1.32 with more aggressive polynomials, projecting around $0.86-$0.93 by Dec 2024. The last bearish cycle was deeper than the prior one suggesting a trend reversal favoring its bearishness.

 

The Bitcoin fell below $50,000-U.S. on weekending Dec 10, 2021 for the first time in several weeks. It bounced back above $50,000 with the threat of rising inflation exceeding that of the threat of rising interest rates, but again faltering to just over $40,000.

                       

Gold endured Yellow Bear status on weekending Apr 2, 2021 and rejected that on weekending Apr 23, 2021.  It has been bouncy just above Yellow since then without bullish or bearish commitment. It has not yet mustered enough strength to becoming a Red Bull. The Dec 2024-mean forecast is $1,800/oz. while the more aggressive polynomials are projecting a Dec 2024 value approximating $1,110-$1,150/oz. You can keep up with an approximation of this on the Indicant Daily Stock Market Report by tracking ETF#11-GLD.

 

Oil regained Red Bull status on weekending Dec 31, 2020, after moving above the domain of the Yellow Bear on weekending Jun 19, 2020. It had been bouncy around $40/bbl for several weeks but became highly bullish since Biden’s so-called election. The Dec 2024-intrinsic and aggressive polynomial forecast remains below zero with the statistical mean forecast of $57/bbl. Saudi Royalty is very pleased with their new low IQ puppets in D.C. There is some jawboning where the Royalty is being told to lower prices or the D.C. puppets will be tossed out. Multi-variants of COVID-19 are now projecting reduced demand for petroleum.

 

The CRB Bridge Futures regained Red Bull status on weekending Dec 31, 2020, after abandoning Yellow Bear status on the week of August 3, 2020. That correlated well with a dumb populace and vote cheaters supporting the communistic takeover attempt of the U.S. It is now aggressively contributing to inflation with it regaining Red Bull status on weekending Feb 26, 2021. It also strengthened during the week of the U.S. election and has continued doing so with no sign of any countermeasures from the source of the inflationary problem; the democratic party, news media, and the lunatic masses in their deep state of tabula rasa. It continues being bullish and thus inflationary.

 

Mortgage rates regained Red Bull status on weekending Mar 12, 2021 after falling into Yellow Bear status on weekending Apr 12, 2019.  They are no longer Yellow Bears. As of weekending Dec 3, 2021 they are now weak Red Bulls. They continue showing signs of passing a bottom. This remains a great time to finance real estate for those willing to incur debt during uncertainties from the Coronavirus and the more damaging sociopathic politicians. That will not last too long as the ratio of people desiring a home far outnumbers those who know how to build a home.

 

The consumer price index and producer price index are computing without the combined absolute value of threatening interest rates and inflation or deflation of 8%. Considerations of deflationary threats are not out of line, though. Fortunately, there are millions around the world willing to work and be consumptive. With that, the strong may offset the weak. The coronavirus had been disrupting that line of thinking but nearing its disruptive end. A new problem is the political climate, which always has the potential to be massively disruptive to economic conditions. Politicians have a long history of being economically destructive and completely absent of being constructive.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals this week for the major indices along the mid-term cycle.

 

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling bull for all ten major indices. The ten bulls are up by an average of 49.2% since their bull signals an average of 73.5-weeks ago and annualizing at 34.8%. Bullish unanimity remains intact.

 

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $81.7-million. That beats buy and hold performance of $5.43-million on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $5.02-million. That beats buy and hold’s $2.75-million on a Jan 6, 1950 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $3.67-million. That beats buy and hold’s $1.49-million on a Jan 29, 1971 $10,000 investment.  The MTI-Dow Transports is at $48.2-million. That is better than buy and hold $1.16-million since a $10,000 investment on Oct 19, 1928. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1,504.5%, 182.3%, 245.5%, and 4,135.5%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

 

There are two reasons why the Dow Transport index is included in the above summary. It is used by the Dow Theory Forecast, which has merit, albeit slowly. The second reason is the statistical friendliness and its near-perfect sinusoidal waves. It tends to stay committed to its underlying cycle of bullishness or bearishness more than other indices.

 

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals as buy and hold and the Indicant moves at the same magnitude. The Indicant’s advantage only occurs during bear signals as the cash holds constant, while the stock market dives.

 

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks  

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history. Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

 

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 99.9% since then. Although this is classically presidential post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy and hold during 2009, 2013, and 2017, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation, for the most part, in those three presidential post-election years. Interest rates fell to historical lows in the 2008/9 recession and have persisted since then and thus giving rise to equity attractiveness to investors. Recent elections are highlighting left leaning political movements. The return of politburo wannabes in congress will offer this fund and others like it, profound growth opportunities at some future point, but not right now, even with the coronavirus inflicting damage to the economy and the corrupt election of the democratic (communist) party. Keep in mind, politburos confiscate. They are already confiscating your freedom. Conditions are mounting favoring strong profit potential in this economic climate, despite the newly forming political threat by the communistic movement now underway with the guise of climate change, racism, China virus-Covid rules, etc. Sociopathic political leadership is more common than not throughout recorded history. So far, the presidential post-election year of 2021 continues arguing against historical trends of stock market bearishness. Low interest rates continue being credited with this. Rest assured lying politicians take credit.

 

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

 

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

 

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

 

The Dow is up 1,151.7%, annualized at 38.0% since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,575-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

 

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

 

The next section is the last daily stock market report for this past week

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Archives

{Repeated here are from the last trading day’s daily stock market report from the previous week. Click this link to see all the daily reports from the last 12-months. Retaining here in the weekly report allows for longer retention periods of the daily stock market reports that describe the short-term cycle at the end of each week}.

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Summary

Jan 7, 2022-After regaining short-term bullish unanimity last week, it was lost this week with a near-term bear signal for the NASDAQ-(Chart). Although the NASDAQ100-(Chart) is similarly configured, it did not endure a near-term bear signal. Several other indices are enduring decreasing near-term support for the stock market bull. As stated in last week’s Weekly Stock Market Report, a few more days of stock market bearishness was expected before the stock market bull resumes dominance. That continues to be the expectation.

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

 

Index Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and one new bear.

 

Number of Near-term Bulls: 10 of 12

Duration of Near-term Bulls: 5.4-wks-avg.

Near-term Bull Performance: +1.5%; Annualized Performance: +14.4%

Number of Near-term Bears: 1 of 12

Average Duration of Near-term Bears: 4.0-wks. avg.

Near-term Bears Average Performance: +4.0% 

Near-term Performance Advantage: Dec 24, 2021-Stock Market Bull

           

Near-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses  

Near-term Indicant Non-Contrarian Configured Bullish Blue Bulls: 3 of 11 

Near-term Indicant Non-Contrarian Configured Bearish Green Bears: 2 of 11

 

Near-term Position Cyclical Advantage: Dec 24, 2021-Stock Market Bull

 

Index Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

                                               

Number of Quick-term Bulls: 11of 12 (Quick-term Bullish Unanimity)

Average Duration of Quick-term Bulls: 74.5-wks.

Quick-term Bull Performance: 53.5%; Quick-term Annualized Performance: 37.4%.

 

Number of Quick-term Bears: 1 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term Bears: 4.0-weeks-avg.

Quick-term Bear Performance: +0.4%

 

Quick-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 7 of 12

Configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 0 of 12

 

Quick-term Configured Advantage: Oct 15, 2021-Quick-term Advantage to Bull

                                   

Short-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses          

Non-contrarian force vectors in bullish domains: 5 of 11

Non-contrarian force vectors higher than vector pressure: 0 of 11

Non-contrarian vector pressure in bullish domains: 10 of 11

Non-contrarian bullish force vector direction: 0 of 11

Non-contrarian bullish vector pressure direction: 6 of 11

 

Short-term Advantage: Short-term Advantage: Jan 7, 2022 Stock Market Bear

 

Indicant Volume Indicators

Jan 7-Both volume indicators are configuring with declining interest. The coupled with stock market bearishness this past week suggest last week’s bearishness was without short-term support. However, there remains enough volume for a few more days of stock market bearishness. The Mid-term Indicant, however, is configuring with less support for the stock market bull.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

ETF Near-term Report Card Summary

There were one buy signal and four sell signals along the near-term cycle.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 21-ETF’s. Those enjoying hold signals are up by an average of 2.6% since their buy signals an average of 6.3-weeks ago, annualizing at 21.1%.

 

The NTI is avoiding six-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 7.7% since their sell signals 8.8-weeks ago.

 

Near-term ETF Cycle Analyses

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 1

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 2

 

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 1

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 0

 

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue     Bulls: 6, down from 14 last week.

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 5, down from two last week.

 

Near-term Advantage: Stock Market Bull as of Oct 22, 2021

          

ETF Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and twosell signals.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 24-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 46.9% since their buy signals an average of 65.8-weeks ago, annualizing at 38.6%.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding five-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 19/7% since their sell signals 12.2-weeks ago.

                               

Quick-term ETF Cycle Analyses  

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 0

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 3

           

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 0

           

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red      Bulls: 11

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 5

 

Quick-term Advantage: Quick-term Stock Market Bull Oct 15, 2021

 

Reverse Tangential Projections                   

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections.

           

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

Other links:

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the S&P500 Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Understanding Content on the Short-term Indicant Charts

 

Indicant Conclusion

Bullish unanimity along the Short-term and Mid-term Indicant cycle is no in effect. The stock market bull is no longer gaining momentum. Rising oil prices and the threat of rising interest rates will adversely impact the stock market bull to resume dominance.

 

Click this sentence to keep up with the Short-term Indicant.

 

Click this sentence to maintain stock market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.

 

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.

 

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

 

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

 

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc., click the following hyperlink:

 

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm 

 

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the website, so you can always find your way back.

 

Stop Loss Management

This was moved to the bottom of this report as its content rarely changes. You will be notified when stop losses should be tightened or loosened.

 

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized capital gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the greater value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences.

 

For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

 

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying. Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

 

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

 

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

 

Click this sentence to keep up with the Short-term Indicant.

 

Click this sentence to maintain stock market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.

 

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.

 

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

 

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

 

Happy Investing,

 

www.indicant.net

01/09/2022

 

 

 

 

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