Return Home | Table of Contents | FAQ's |  Become a Member | ETF's |  Current Report Card | Member Updates | Login

Media Kit | Free Stock Market History | Indicant Performance Advantage | Back Issues | Contact Us | Links

 

Indicant.Net Ezine

This is updated weekly at varying times.

Back Issues 

 

Note to public. You are welcome to read this ezine and other content in this web site. You can click on the "back issues" link at the top of this page to gain significant insights about the stock market and the economy. Throughout this ezine and back issues there are several links to pages inside this web site. Only members can access certain pages from these links. The phenomena of commonality dictates this policy. In other words, the buy/hold and sell/avoid positions are limited to a few people. The Indicant is not mass marketed.. You can become a member, but after membership goals are achieved, no new members will be allowed. The investment crowd is always wrong and we have no desire to create a crowd.

The below is last week's report. This week's report can be found by clicking the following link. You must be a members to view this week's report.

Click here to read this week's report.

Click here to read the current daily reports.

Click here to access prior daily and weekly reports. Non-members are welcome.

 

 

 

 

Jul 15, 2018 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 07, Issue 03 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

  

Interesting Conflicts, Potential Inflection Point, Mid-term Polls

The stock market is now within the normal lead time of predicting the mid-term election results due in November. The Democratic Party now leads in the polls with a +13 advantage. That lead is bigger than any this century. That poll conflicts with economic conditions, which is a positive for most incumbents. The contemporary democratic party consists of politburo wannabes and could easily be referred to as the communist party. Too many bobble-heads can vote, and their empty brains threaten the stock market bull. Capital markets have zero tolerance for stupidity, while the democratic party thrives off of it. Democratic party leaders are now infected with stupidity, but unfortunately, stupid people do not recognize and thus do not discriminate against stupidity. Rest assured, the stock market bull and societal stupidity will never coexist.

 

The problem with republicans in congress is that they see their personal potential gains with an evolving politburo and a devolving republic. They do not attack democrats as they perceive they would also be attacking their self-aggrandizement. Keep your eye on the upcoming approval process of the supreme court nominee. A failure to approve Brett Kavanaugh will prove the republican party is wanting politburo membership.

 

Economic conditions are good. That should be favorable for the incumbent president. Polls suggests economic conditions are irrelevant with a 13-point disadvantage to Trump.

 

The last time democrats resumed control of the House of Representatives was in the mid-term election year of 2006. They moved into office in early 2007. The stock market peaked a few months after that, followed by a massive bear market and the Great Recession in 2008-9.

 

Adding laziness to economic lethargy, the populace stupidly elected a democratic president for complete control over the legislative and executive branches of government in 2008. If the polls are correct, which may not be the case, democrats are being positioned to take over the U.S. House of Representatives. If they take over the Senate as well, the politburo will then impeach the president.

 

The stock market will not wait for all that to be a past tense observation. It will anticipate it. It may already be doing that. The stock market will shift into a strong bearish dive if it believes the republic will be replaced by the politburo. Political elites believe they know better how you need to spend your life than you do. The stock market bull does not like it when a few three-pound brains are calling all of the shots. The stock market bull prefers Darwinian-like competition where the hungriest and fittest invent things that drive economic wealth. The communist manifesto disdains personal reward for profound and effective effort. The stock market bear is delighted when there is zero economic manifestation from individual effort.

 

Last week’s bullish stock market behavior was impressive, suggesting it does not believe prevailing polls. After all, most polls were wrong about Trump’s Nov 2016 victory. However, the stock market bull has to be concerned about how many idiots voted for the politburo wannabes in 2006 and again in 2008. The stock market bull rejoiced in 2010 when the politburo wannabes were removed from power. The stock market bull became dominant in Aug 2010 when it accurately anticipated tossing Pelosi out of the House Speaker seat00.

 

The Dow Jones Transports endured a near-term bear signal last Thursday. Click this sentence to review its short-term chart. There, you will notice its force vector shifted latterly with bearish vector pressure. That configuration does not support its continuing short-term bullishness. It was the last major index to earn a Quick-term Indicant bull signal on July 8, 2016 or just over two years ago. Strong bearishness next week threatens its Quick-term Indicant bull status, as it could fall below Yellow. If the politburo wannabes continue leading in the polls and the stock market bull believes those polls accurate, the stock market bear will dominate.

 

Keep in mind, all this bearish talk is within the confines of the short-term cycle, which more often than not leads to simple and harmless pestering by the stock market bear.  The Mid-term cycle is more stable and accurate in the assessment of the health of the stock market bull. As you can see, but clicking this sentence, the DJT is a Red Bull along the Mid-term Indicant cycle. Red Bulls and stock market bears never coexist.

 

Contrarian VIX-(Chart) force vector is at a cyclical minimum, while non-contrarian NASDAQ-(Chart) force is at a cyclical maximum. This, alone, is not bearish, but the configuration enhances the probability of stock market bearishness along the short-term cycle. This configuration is widespread among several indices and ETF’s along the short-term cycle, which associates with a short-term inflection point. That is where directional shifts occur.

 

Several mutual funds endured sell signals this past weekend due to falling force with bearish pressure. Click this sentence to view a listing of them. Mutual funds are very stable, but all of them fell below the short-cycle green curve without Red Bull protection. That does not bode well for the stock market bull along the short-term cycle, but not yet for the more important Mid-term Indicant cycle.

 

The good news is that most Mid-term force vectors shifted back into a bullish direction. A continuation of that will override the near-term pestering by the stock market bear.

 

The next section highlights the current condition of the stock market.

 

Mid-term Indicant Status of the Major Indices

The major stock market indices can be accessed by clicking this sentence.

 

Click this sentence to review how to understand the below terms.

 

Click this sentence to understand the details on the charts.

 

Mid-term Indicant Red Bulls-Click for Explanation1): 10-Red Bulls, 0-Non-Red Bulls

            Comment: Red Bull unanimity remains in effect. The 10-major indices are above the bullish red curve by an average of 9.1%.

 

Mid-term Indicant Blue Bulls-Click for Explanation2): 7-Blue Bull, 3-Non-Blue Bulls

            Comment: Blue bull population rebounded from only two, two weeks to seven this past week. Overall, the major indices are now above the short-cycle blue curve by an average of 0.9%. That is supportive of the stock market bull.

 

Mid-term Indicant Yellow Bears-Click for Explanation3): 0-Yellow Bears, 10-Non-Yellow Bears

                Comment: None of the major indices are threatening on becoming a Yellow Bear. Falling to Yellow Bear status requires an average drop, overall, of the ten major indices, of 32.5% from current position. Without Yellow Bears, the stock market bear has difficulty in gaining long-term dominance. The gap between prevailing prices and the Yellow Bear is too wide to be considered where the next bear signals will occur. Currently, losing Red Bull status is where the next bear signals will occur with the exception of the DJU and DJT, where Green is still below Red.

 

Mid-term Indicant Green Bears-Click for Explanation4): 0-Green Bears, 10-Non-Green Bears

                Comment: Overall, the major indices are above Green by 9.5%. At this point bear signals are not to be considered until the market falls another 9.5%, which is the distance to the bullish red curves. In other words, Green Bears will occur before Red Bulls expire and thus the expiration of Red Bulls will trigger Mid-term Indicant bear signals with the exception of the DJU and DJT.

 

Mid-term Indicant Red to Green Position5): Four Reds Higher than Green; Six Greens Higher Than Red

                Comment: This attribute continues identifying an overheated bull market. The DJT-(Chart),  DJU-(Chart), S&P100-(Chart), and the S&P400-(Chart) are the only four major indices where Green is no longer above Red. Red is above Green by an average of 0.5% for all ten major indices. The DJT and DJU have yet for their green curves to cross above their red curves in this cycle.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Position6): 7-bullish domains, 3-bearish domains

                Comment: Three major force vectors dropped into bearish domains two weeks ago and remain there. They are the DJIA-(Chart), DJT-(Chart), and DJ65-(Chart). This is mildly inspirational to the stock market bear.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Relative to Vector Pressure7): 1-above pressure, 9-below pressure

                Comment: Force vectors returned to favoring the stock market bull on April 22, 2018, but all but one is now below pressure, threatening bullish support. This condition has not improved the past two weeks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Position8): 8-bullish domains, 2-bearish domains

                Comment: Bullish unanimity was lost this past week with the DJIA-(Chart) and DJT-(Chart) pressure falling into bearish domains. Rest assured the stock market bear noticed and sees a wounded stock market bull.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Direction9): 6-bullish, 4-bearish

                Comment: The desired directional shift occurred this past week, but the movement was puny. Despite that, it is favorable to the stock market bull that force finally shifted from bearish support.

           

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Direction10): 1-bullish, 9-bearish

            Comment: Additional pressure declines are also discerning and will become more serious if they dip down into bearish domains.

 

Click this sentence to review how to understand the above terms.

Click this sentence to understand how to read the charts.

 

Mid-term Indicant Configured Condition of Major Indices: As stated for several months, the prevailing Red Bull population minimizes the potential for deep and long-lasting stock market bearishness. Most Mid-term Indicant attributes continue configuring with bullish support, but with a narrow majority in doing so.

 

Whipsawed – Review of Wild Swings Last Week

This section highlights last week’s biggest gainers and losers within each group of stocks and funds tracked by the Mid-term Indicant. The groups are the NASDAQ100- Stocks, the Indicant Selected Stocks (mainly energy and former NASDAQ100 stocks, coded ISTK), the Dow Jones 30-Stocks (DJIA), the Dow Utilities (DJU) and Mutual Funds(MF). The below excludes Short-term Indicant tracking of ETF’s and the major indices, which are updated periodically throughout each week.

 

CA Inc., NAS#12-CA-(Chart), was up 20.0% last week as the most bullish NASDAQ stock. It is also up 46.8% since the Indicant’s Feb 2016 buy signal. This stock is enjoying an unimpressive long-term bullish trend. Last week’s behavior suggests it is interested in accelerating to an impressive bullish trend. Continue holding this solid Red Bull. Avago Tech, NAS#14-AVGO-(Chart), was the most bearish NASDAQ100 stock last week, dropping 18.3%. It is also up 523.0% since the Indicant’s Jan 2013 buy signal. This stock will endure the next sell signal when it falls below Yellow. It is wounded. With that, set your stop loss at the Yellow price or to your personal protection, as this stock has performed well over the last several years. It is now in a bit of trouble.

 

Broadvision, ISTK#17-BVSN-(Chart), was up 17.9% as the best performing stock among this group. Despite last week’s bullishness, this stock is down 88.0% since the Indicant’s May 2012 sell signal. Continue avoiding this Yellow Bear despite it possibly being bought out. Enzo Biotech, ISTK#47-ENZ-(Chart), was the worse performing stock in this group of stocks, falling 7.6% last week. This stock is also down 7.9% since the Indicant’s Jun 15, 2018 sell signal. Continue avoiding this Yellow Bear.

 

Disney, DJIA#25-DIS-(Chart), was the most bullish Dow30 stock, jumping 5.0% last week. This stock is also up 219.1% since the Indicant’s Oct 2011 sell signal. Continue holding this solid Red Bull with a nice long-term bullish trend. Even during recessions, government employee’s still go to Disney, and there are plenty (too many) of them. AT&T, DJIA#16-T-(Chart), fell 3.1% as the most bearish Dow30 stock. This stock is also down 12.1% since the Indicant’s Feb 9, 2016 sell signal. Continue avoiding this Yellow Bear. It and everything related to the internet is now into a state of devolution. The financing folks are now running the show and they typically ruin the companies due to their “reactionary” training.

 

DJU#05-AES-(Chart), was up 1.4% as the best performing Dow Utility stock last week. This stock is also up 0.8% since the Indicant’s Jun 15, 2018 buy signal. This stock is jumpy and with high risks in holding, while potentially producing high reward. Set your stop loss at the Yellow price, as this stock has a long history of disappointing shareholders with its lethargic performance. PG&E, DJU#07-PCG-(Chart), was the most bearish Dow Utility stock, dropping 3.9% last week. This stock is also down 19.1% since the Indicant’s Dec 2017 sell signal. Continue avoiding this Yellow Bear.

 

Fidelity Defense and Aerospace, MF#36-FSDAX-(Chart), was up 3.7% as the most bullish classical mutual fund tracked by the Indicant. This fund is also up 193.7% since the Indicant’s Dec 2009 buy signal. Continue holding this solid Red Bull, as Trumponomics will help it get out of this rut. Pro Fund’s Ultra Short, MF#22-USPIX-(Chart), was down 4.6% last week as the most bearish classical mutual fund tracked by the Indicant. This fund is also down 98.9% since the Indicant’s Apr 2009 sell signal. Continue avoiding this Yellow Bear.

 

 

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Last Ten Years

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows in this section. It highlights historical performance since 2002. Simply scroll down the webpage to see graphical and detail content of this section. The below describes the same for the past ten years. If a particular year interest you, click this sentence, which will show you all of the prior weekly reports dating back to 2002 along with Indicant performance levels at the time of those reports. From there, you can click the year of interest and then to the specific time-period you are interested in.

 

The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signals and six sell signal this weekend. Clicking this sentence is where the Mid-term Indicant buy and sell signals are displayed.  

 

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 247 of the 320-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. Stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 219.7% that annualizes to 49.6%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 247-stocks and funds for an average of 230.3-weeks. There have been 48-buy signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.

 

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 67-stocks and funds of 320-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 17.5% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 78.4-weeks ago. There have been 71-sell signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.

 

One year ago, on Jul 14, 2017 the Mid-term Indicant was holding 268-stocks and funds of the 321-tracked for an average of 215.7-weeks. They were up by an average of 170.6% (annualized at 41.1%). There were 51-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down by an average of 19.1% since their respective sell signals an average of 93.5-weeks earlier, one year ago. There was one buy signal and one sell signal on this weekend in 2017. There had been 47-buy signals and 30-sell signals for the year through this weekend in 2017.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 265-stocks on Jul 15, 2016. They were up 142.1% since their buy signals an average of 190.7-weeks earlier, annualizing at 38.8%. There were 70-avoided stocks on this weekend since their sell signals an average of 77.0-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2016. There had been 99-buy signals and 77-sell signals through this weekend in 2016. Polls favored Hillary Clinton throughout most of that year’s election cycle. That confronted the stock market bull and encouraged the stock market bear. Presidential candidate, Hillary Clinton, once said she would take corporate profits and do something better with the money was not only laughable, but seriously confronted the stock market bull.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 276-stocks and funds of the 338-tracked on Jul 17, 2015. They were up by an average of 162.1%, annualizing at 39.3%, since their respective buy signals an average of 214.3-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 60-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 17.5% since their respective sell signals an average of 70.9-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and two sell signals on this weekend in 2015. There were 23-year-to-date buy signals and 46-sell signals at this time of year in 2015. This presidential pre-election year was somewhat uneventful and tame, following unusually strong post-election year bullishness in 2013 and a flat 2014-mid-term presidential election year.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 316-stocks and funds of the 335-tracked on Jul 11, 2014. They were up by an average of 124.0%, annualizing at 39.2%, since their respective buy signals an average of 164.6-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 19-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 25.5% since their respective sell signals an average of 77.0-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2014. There had been a total of 20-buy signals and 19-sell signals through this weekend in 2014.

 

There were 301-stocks and funds with hold signals of the 338-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant on Jul 5, 2013 since their buy signals an average of 132.3-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 92.0% (annualized at 36.2%). There were 33-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 26.9% from their respective sell signals an average of 63.6-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2013. There had been 65-buy signals and 40-sell signals through this weekend in 2013. This was an impressively bullish year, as sequestration inspired the stock market bull along an accelerated growth plane. Although sequestered spending was minimal, the underlying principles of handcuffing the irrationality of politicians inspired the stock market bull.

 

On Jul 13, 2012, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 271-stocks and funds out of 338-tracked. They were up by an average of 72.9% (annualized at 39.7%) since their buy signals an average of 95.4-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 63-stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 23.0% since their sell signals an average of 48.7-weeks earlier. There were four buy signals and six sell signals on this weekend in 2012. There had been 126-buy signals and 90-sell signals through this weekend in 2012.

 

On Jul 15, 2011, there were 283-hold signals for stocks and funds out of the 335-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 56.1%, annualizing at 41.3% since their respective buy signals an average of 70.7-weeks earlier. There were 52-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down an average of 28.8% since their respective sell signals an average of 80.2-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2011. There had been 25-buy signals and 35-sell signals through this weekend in 2011.

 

On Jul 16, 2010, there were 138-stocks and funds with hold signals from the listing of 316-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant at that time. They were up an average of 44.5% annualizing at 37.7%, since their respective buy signals an average of 61.2-weeks earlier. There were 178-avoided stocks and funds then. They were down by an average of 22.0% since their sell signals an average of 54.8-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2010, totaling 34-buy signals and 108-sell signals through this weekend in 2010. The stock market shifted to strong bullishness in August 2010 at the obviation of democrats losing the House of Representatives. This is an example of the stock market’s ability to “anticipate,” as opposed to being reactionary to the “news.”

 

There were 23-stocks and funds with hold signals on Jul 17, 2009. The Mid-term Indicant was tracking 316-stocks and funds at that time. Those with hold signals were up by an average of 119.0%, annualizing at 62.7%, since their buy signals an average of 98.7-weeks earlier. The 290-avoided stocks and funds were down an average of 25.2% since their respective sell signals an average of 54.7-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2009. There had been 19-buy signals and 23-sell signals through this weekend in 2009.

 

On Jul 11, 2008, there were 79-stocks and funds with hold signals, enjoying an average gain of 262.9% since their respective buy signals an average of 186.9-weeks earlier. That annualized at 73.1%. There were 345-stocks and funds tracked at that time. There were 186.9-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 13.5% since their sell signals an average of 19.8-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and five sell signals on this weekend in 2008. There had been 99-year-to-date buy signals and 262-YTD sell signals through this weekend in 2008. This was the year of the great stock market crash, as phony political leadership do what they do. And then their little, but selfish, three-pound brains, blame the crash on big business and capitalism, despite them being 100% responsible for the fiasco. The stock market bear was accelerating its dominance in early 2008 with a few false bounces from phony governmental interventions and the profound stupidity from their “too big to fail” paradigm. Delaying the inevitable only worsens its magnitude at the “real” conclusion of stupidity’s chaos.

           

The above performance reflects status at the time of the updates. Abandoned securities have no impact to the above performance statistics and the historical report card. They always represent status at the time of that status and never changes. When securities become NLT (no longer traded), their performance levels are excluded from the report card at the time they become NLT. There are no retroactive adjustments. The number of stocks and funds tracked from week to week may differ because they are no longer traded or listed on major stock exchanges.     

 

The Indicant started retaining records of abandoned stocks and funds in 2012. There are advantages of retaining records by expressing the consequences of an organization employing dilettante management and related corporate leeching. All organizations eventually expire. The primary causes of such expirations are corporate leeching, stupidity, and arrogance (without cause). {Note: the same is true of governments that fall prey to either economic leeching (FDR) and/or excessive egomaniacal behavior by its leaders (Hitler)}. Click here to see abandoned securities.

 

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals

Buying and selling have been limited for the past few years, as the bull’s perseverance has prevented a solid bear market for nearly ten years. That reduces the number of stocks in temporary decline to earn new buy signals since they are enjoying hold signals. Although Mid-term attributes are not strongly bullish, the stock market bear has been unable to gain traction with only minor pestering since early 2009. It is very possible for that to continue for seven to nine more years but being challenged by strong bear-friendly political fundamentals. The threat of trade wars confronts a relaxed posture toward the stock market bull. Equally confronting basic economics is the political elite’s desire to shift representative government to a politburo form of government. In other words, your vote is meaningless, while the so-called political elite desire to control who your ruler is. Freedom has never been a gift. It has always been earned, but every six to ten generations, it is usually lost.

 

Clicking this sentence will take you to this weekend’s Mid-term Indicant buy/sell signals.

 

The Short-term Indicant signals buy and sell for ETF’s, almost daily, provided the ETF’s enjoy a buy signal or endure a sell signal. They are not included in the Mid-term Indicant summaries. These short-term models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts, while the Mid-term Indicant includes fundamentals and longer-term technical data to reject short-term trader nervousness. The Daily Stock Market Report reports status for the short-term model.

 

The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 243.4% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 602.4% and the S&P500 is up 260.6% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 512.6% since October 9, 2002.

 

The NASDAQ was bearish by 15.6% through this weekend in 2001’s presidential post-election year. It finished 2001 down by 21.1%, which was congruent with the standards of post-election-year-bearishness. As many of you recall, the markets succumbed to the stock market bear during the most part of 2001.

 

The NASDAQ was down 29.6% through this weekend in 2002’s mid-term election-year. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The NASDAQ stock market bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with historical standards of finding bottoms during mid-term election years. It fell over 80% from its all-time high on March 9, 2000 by late 2002.

 

The NASDAQ was up 31.4% on this weekend in 2003’s presidential pre-election year. It finished 2003 up by 50.0%, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results, despite the start of the Iraq war in March of that year. It was down on this weekend in 2004 by 3.6% in the meandering bear market of 2004 that dampened bullish enthusiasm, but the NASDAQ finished 2004’s presidential pre-election year up by 8.6%. This was `congruent with presidential election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards.

 

It was down 1.4% on this weekend in 2005’s post-election year, which was consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains during post-election years. It finished up by 1.4% in 2005. This was an excellent year, based on post-election year historical standards of bearishness. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets. Some of you recall a new bullish cycle originated in August 2005 that carried through until mid-2007. The stock market enjoyed that nice bullish ride, following the meandering bear market of 2004 through Aug 2005.

           

In 2006, the NASDAQ was down 7.5% on this weekend. It finished up in 2006 by 9.5%, which maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year.  

 

The NASDAQ was up 12.1% through this weekend in 2007, finishing that year up by 9.8%. The stock market peaked in 2007 from the 2003-bull leg after democrats took control of Congress in early 2007. George W. went along with them as opposed to repelling them. That inspired the stock market bear and added depth to its decline. Of course, the housing bubble contributed. Politicians originated it, like many adverse economic conditions.

 

The NASDAQ was down by 16.7% on this weekend in 2008. It finished 2008 down by 40.5%. That was extreme contrarian performance to the standards of historical election year bullishness. The overall stock market endured the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832. The history from 1832 used other indices until the DJIA’s inception in 1896.

                       

It was up 13.7% on this weekend in 2009, while finishing that year up by 43.9%. Keep in mind, the extraordinary bullish cycle in 2009 finished that year down by 20.6% from its prior weekly cyclical peak on October 31, 2007. The 2008 bear market more accurately reflected economic fundamentals than the 2009 bull market. Much of the 2009 bull market correlated well with declining political popularity.

 

The NASDAQ was down 1.2% on this weekend in 2010. It finished that year up by 16.9%, which was consistent with mid-term election year bullishness; especially in the second half of such years. The stock market was explosively bullish through the mid-term election year when it was obvious the Republicans would regain control of the House and possibly the Senate.

 

It was up 5.4% on this weekend in 2011. Unfortunately, the NASDAQ finished 2011 down by 7.3%. Some prior reports errantly stated the NASDAQ finished up in 2011. The S&P500 finished flat in 2011 while the DJIA finished up by 5.5% that year. This was an unusual conclusion for a presidential pre-election year. The enhancement of socialism and the threat of communism confused the stock market.

           

The NASDAQ was up 11.6% on this weekend in 2012, finishing that year up by 15.9%, which was classically bullish for the presidential election year. One reason for its bearish tail in the second half of that year was the re-election of the incumbent president. Four more years of incumbency invites exponential increases in corruption with expanded economic turmoil.  

 

It was up 19.2% on this weekend in 2013, finishing that normally bearish presidential post-election year up by a whopping 38.3%. Extraordinary stock market bullishness in 2013 correlated well with sequestration. The Dow and S&P500 closed out 2013 up by 26.5% and 29.6%, respectively, and diabolically opposed to a long history of presidential post-election year bearishness. Politically contributing elements were 1) sequestration and 2) continuing democratic losses at the city, county, state, and federal levels. Fortunately, communistic orations by the democratic party were repulsed by an increasingly number of smarter voters after their profound stupidity in the 2006-mid-term elections, allowing the democrats a majority in both the house and senate.  

           

The NASDAQ was up 6.3% in 2014, finishing that year up 13.4% even though starting out the year very slowly and enduring some significant near-term bearish cycles throughout 2014. The presidential use of executive orders countered normal stock market bullishness that usually accompanies political partisanship. The executive branch may undo the political cycle model if constitutional breeches accelerate. Obama’s successor could use an executive order to arrest Obama, Holder, and others for breaking the law and violation their oaths. Of course, aggravating constitutional authority will eventually erode the designed intention of the founding fathers. Human kind will regret it but will be too stupid to recognize their culpability in their economic decline.

.                                                                                                                                                                      

The NASDAQ was up 7.1% on this weekend in 2015. It finished 2015 up by 5.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 2.2% for the first bearish conclusion in a presidential pre-election year since 1939.

           

The NASDAQ was flat on this weekend in 2016 with polls suggesting Hillary Clinton as the obvious president elect. It finished 2016 up by 7.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 13.4% due, primarily, to a late year bullish explosion on the defeat of Hillary Clinton for the presidency and continued erosion of the democratic party.

 

The NASDAQ was up 16.6% on this weekend in 2017, finishing that presidential post-election year up by 28.2% with Donald Trump’s first year as president. Deregulating and undoing prior political damage to the economy is causation to that profound bullishness.

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 1.2% this year. The S&P500 is up 4.8% for the year and the NASDAQ is up 13.4% this year. The S&P600 is up 11.7% this year.  The Dow Transports is down 0.6% and Dow Utilities is down 0.2% this year.

 

The Dow is up 76.6% since its prior weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is up 173.7% since its last cyclical peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P500 is up 79.0% since its Oct 9, 2007 peak. The 2007 peaks coincide with political coziness in Washington D.C., which solidified in early 2007, as George W. Bush’s liberal tendencies melded well with the newly elected socialistic leaning congress with a similar fiscal liberalism and the dangerous practice of fascism.

 

All major indices are holding above their 2007-peaks. The Dow Utilities was the last of the major indices to return to 2007-peak levels. It took about seven years to do so but fell back below its 2007-peak in early Jan 2016. It is again above its Jul 19, 2007-peak by 30.6%.

 

The NASDAQ is above its 2000-peak by 55.0%. The NASDAQ100 finally crossed above its March 2000 all-time high on Nov 6, 2015, fell below shortly thereafter, and then crossed back above that peak on Jul 29, 2016. It also fell below that peak weekending Sep 9, 2016 and again crossing back above its March 24, 2000 peak on weekending Sep 16, 2016. It is above that peak by 56.8%. The S&P100 finally toppled its Mar 23, 2000 peak on May 2, 2013. It is now above that peak by 48.4%.

 

Although exact simultaneous bottoming did not occur on March 9, 2009, tracking from that pivot-point has been and will continue to be appropriate. This inexactness lends credence to the reverse tangential projections with a short-term view and increasingly so. Consequently, March 9, 2009 is the pivot date to monitor performance since the March 2009 bottoming from the 2007-2008 bear cycle. When prices fall below reverse tangential projections, new pivot points will be defined.

 

The Dow is up 282.1% since March 9, 2009, which is the “bottoming” pivot date from the great bear market of 2007/8. The NASDAQ is up 516.9% and the S&P500 is up 314.1% since then. The S&P600, Small Cap Index, is up 475.3% since March 9, 2009. That March 2009-current bull leg was indeed powerful, but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth. The Federal Reserve may be held in check by fearing Trump tweets and not accelerate rate increases during his first term. So far, the Fed remains passive, but recent rate hikes offer some arguments against being passive.           

 

The stock market bull is usually aroused and significantly so when congress and the president are at odds. This leads to a “do-nothing” government, which is usually bullish. The only positive economic contribution politicians can do is undoing their prior damage and the damage caused by their predecessors. The bullishness that occurs during do-nothing periods is due to the absence of additional economic damage by politicians. It will be interesting if a republican administration with a republican congress can upset 180-years of being bearish when those two bodies agree. So far, they are in disagreement and more or less disallowing an undoing of prior political damage. That dispute may indeed prevent resumption of more political damage. Also, Trump is having some success in deregulation, which is always bullish.

 

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

 

Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for several years, do not fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it does change. The markets, both free and controlled, are not constant. A massive bear market, depending on the magnitude of combined interest rates and inflation, will eventually occur. The more politicians attempt to generate the markets as a constant, the less constant they become. The combined absolute value of interest rates, inflation/deflation remain less than 8.0% and thus no related threat of depressed economic behavior exists now. That is a temporary condition.

 

Although increasing above the norms of Obama economic sluggishness, the reported CPI remains relatively healthy, while the PPI remains non-threatening. As stated several times in this report, Trump-Economics will be inflationary. It has begun, but not yet threatening. The pending cure to that will be a simplified tax code; that is one post-card type of form with the outright elimination of the IRS, CPA’s, and others in the economically non-value adding tax related jobs.

 

The Prime Rate, Discount Rate, and Effective Rate increased another 25-basis points on week-ending Jun 15, 2018, following similar increases on week-endings Dec 23, 2016, Mar 17, 2017, Jun 15, 2017, Dec 15, 2017, Mar 23, 2018. You should notice the spike in the 3-month T-Bill shortly after Trump’s election. The 2020-mean forecast continues escaping from its prior near zero projections.  Rates remain at low levels and thus not yet impeding economic growth. They are becoming more aggressive, however, and increasingly likely to be too slow and low to fend off inflation. Despite that, the annual inflation rate is being reported with only 3.0% to date this year. Oil prices are up 51.8% from this time a year ago, which has a very high correlation to inflation. There is more about oil below.

 

The Federal Reserve’s Quarter 2, 2017 promise of being passive on rate hikes remains as being challenged with noticeable increases in interest rates. The 3-Month T-Bill remains low and non-threatening to the stock market bull, despite recent rate hike aggression. There is a future point where its rise will punish the stock market bull. If the Fed slows future rate hikes and OPEC has their way with increasing oil prices, inflationary pressures will also be unfriendly to the stock market bull. Trump is now asking the Saudis to increase production to slow the increase in prices.

 

The Euro fell into Yellow Bear status on week-ending Jun 15, 2018. The prevailing bearish trend started shifting bullishly for the first time in nine years in early March 2018 like it has four times since 2008 only to be followed by its resumption of its long-term bearish trend. The 2020-mean forecast is at $1.17 with more aggressive intrinsic modeling, projecting $0.52. The Canadian dollar fell below the zone of neutrality on weekending Jul 15, 2017 with its strengthening. It returned to the neutral zone in late October 2017. Despite all that movement, it remains in the zone of neutrality since its weakening above Yellow in Sep 2017 and briefly above Red a few months ago.  Its 2020-mean forecast is $1.30CA with projected polynomials forecasting much weaker values exceeding $1.98CA to $1.88CA.

           

The Japanese Yen statistical mean forecast is at 109-yen/dollar by 2020 while the aggressive polynomials are projecting a range of 152-169-Yen/U.S. dollar. It shifted from the zone of neutrality to strengthening in late Feb 2018 and continues residence there with some recent steadying. It strengthens when falling below Yellow. The British Pound returned to Yellow Bear status in mid-June 2016 with the BREXIT vote. However, it moved above Yellow on week-ending May 5, 2017 and crossed into Red Bull status on Sep 14, 2017, as the U.S. Dollar continued weakening even against this weak currency. It lost Red Bull status on week-ending May 11, 2018 by falling into the zone of neutrality and then returning to Yellow Bear status on weekending Jul 7, 2018. Its 2020 statistical mean forecast is at $1.29 with more aggressive polynomials, projecting around $0.81-$0.83 by Dec 31, 2020.

 

The Bitcoin toppled $16,000 on most exchanges in late 2017 in skyrocketing fashion. It has weakened since then. It lost Red Bull status in late Mar/early Apr 2018. Even though it has declined it remains in the zone of neutrality and resisting Yellow Bear status for several weeks, while remaining between $6,000-$8,000 the past several weeks.

                       

Gold regained Red Bull status on Jan 16, 2018, but dipped slightly below Red on week-ending May 11, 2018 and falling to Yellow Bear during weekending Jul 13, 2018. Prevailing interest rates remain low, despite their recent hikes, and the corresponding weak dollar is encouraging bullish potential for gold. At some point, rising rates will strengthen the dollar, influencing gold’s bearishness. The 2020-mean forecast is $1,297/oz. while the more aggressive polynomials are projecting a 2020 value approximating $701-$704/oz. You can keep up with an approximation of this on the Indicant Daily Stock Market Report by tracking ETF#11-GLD.

 

Oil returned to Red Bull status on Oct 5, 2017 and continuing bullishly since then. Its rise is congruent with inflationary themes going forward. The 2020-intrinsic and aggressive polynomial forecast ranges from $0 to $0. That is correct, but like all forecast, it is erroneous. The 2020-statistical mean forecast is at $54/bbl. This forecast continues to avoid the decline it endured from 2013 through early 2018. Saudi Royalty is most likely targeting $90/BBL for the time being. Trump is now jawboning Saudi Royalty to increase production to put a lid on increasing oil prices.

 

The CRB Bridge Futures regained Red Bull status on Nov 23, 2017 after succumbing to the Yellow Bear on weekending Jun 10, 2017. It is again displaying inflation, but mildly so, holding onto its Red Bull status since mid-February 2018. It remains as a passive Red Bull, favoring some passivity in interest rate increases. The 2020 mean forecast is at $188, while the more aggressive polynomials are forecasting zero by 2020.

 

Mortgage rates abandoned Yellow Bear status on Nov 3, 20 16 with a sharp rise to the enjoyment of Red Bull status for lenders and not for those desiring home ownerships. On Nov 25, 2016, it lost that Red Bull status. Mortgage rates regained Red Bull status in early March 2018 with momentum in their bullish configurations and continues skyrocketing.

 

The consumer price index and producer price index are computing without the combined absolute value of threatening interest rates and inflation or deflation of 8%. Considerations of deflationary threats are not out of line, though. Fortunately, there are millions around the world willing to work and be consumptive. With that, the strong may offset the weak.         

 

Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant again signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010 but had to signal sell on Dec 16, 2011 for a disappointing loss of around 15%. It endured another disappointing loss of 9.7% between the Jan 27, 2012 buy signal and the Mar 16, 2012 sell signal. It again endured a sell signal on Feb 8, 2013, as it fell below its short-term green curve. It was down 30.9% since that Feb 2013 sell signal, when it enjoyed a buy signal on May 6, 2016. It endured a sell signal on Nov 25, 2016, after moving up 10% from that sell signal. That triggered a buy signal on Jan 13, 2017. This fund has remained flat to mildly bearish since then, enduing a sell signal on Jun 15, 2018 after falling to Yellow Bear status. It is down 1.6% since that sell signal.

 

Fidelity Gold Fund #28 also endured a sell signal on Jun 15, 2018. It is down 0.9% since that sell signal.

 

Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, enjoyed a buy signal on Oct 13, 2017 and up 10.6% since then, annualizing at 14.0%.

 

Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, enjoyed a buy signal on Apr 27, 2018. It is down 3.7% since then.

 

State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, enjoyed a buy signal on Apr 13, 2018. It is up 9.5% since then, annualizing at 37.7%.

 

Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, enjoyed a buy signal on Dec 29, 2017 and up 7.0% since then, annualizing at 12.9%.

 

The Near-term Indicant signaled buy for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Jul 9, 2018. It is down 0.7% since then. The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Apr 9, 2018. It is up 13.5% since then, annualizing at 51.0%.

           

The Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for GLD-ETF#11-Gold on Jun 15, 2018. It is down 3.1% since then.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.    

 

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling bull for all ten of the major indices. The existing bulls are up by an average of 44.7% since their bull signals an average of 108.4-weeks ago, annualizing at 21.4%.

 

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $68.663-million. That beats buy and hold performance of $3.750-million on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $3.504-million. That beats buy and hold’s $1.650-million on a Jan 6, 1950 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $2.209-million. That beats buy and hold’s $782,598 on a Jan 29, 1971 $10,000 investment.  The MTI-Dow Transports is at $36.609-million. That is better than buy and hold $755,095 since a $10,000 investment on Oct 19, 1928. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1,730.8%, 112.4%, 182.3%, and 4,748.3%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

 

There are two reasons why the Dow Transports is included in the above summary. It is used by the Dow Theory Forecast, which has merit, albeit slowly. The second reason is the statistical friendliness and its near-perfect sinusoidal waves. It tends to stay committed to its underlying cycle of bullishness or bearishness more than other indices.

 

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals. The Indicant’s advantage only occurs during bear signals.

 

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks  

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history. Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

 

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 98.9% since then. Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy and hold during 2009, 2013, and 2017, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation, for the most part, in those three presidential post-election years. Polls and recent elections are highlighting left leaning political movements. Although their accuracy is indeed questionable, a return to politburo wannabes in congress will offer this fund and others like it, profound growth opportunities at some future point, but not right now. Of course, if that happens, you would not enjoy the opportunity to enjoy the wealth this would provide you.

 

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

 

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

 

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

 

The Dow is up 764.3% (annualized at 28.3%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,393-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

 

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

 

The next section is the last daily stock market report for this past week

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Archives

{Repeated here are from the last trading day’s daily stock market report from the previous week. Click this link to see all the daily reports from the last 12-months. Retaining here in the weekly report allows for longer retention periods of the daily stock market reports that describe the short-term cycle at the end of each week}.

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Summary

Fri-Jul 13-Although near-term bullish unanimity was lost this past Thu with the DJT-(Chart) endured near-term bear signal, quick-term bullish unanimity remains intact. A bullishly aroused VIX-(Chart) next week would not be surprising, as its force vector cycle  remains at a common minimum point. Interestingly, the ETF#01-QQQ-(Chart) is the exact opposite with its bullishly mature force vector cycle at a common maximum. You will see what has been anxiously awaited this week, Mid-term Indicant force vector behavior, in the Weekly Stock Market Report over the weekend. Preliminarily, the stock market bear has been weakened a bit on the mid-term cycle. Only the near-term cycle is under the threat of bearish spurts, which is never serious despite its unsettling effects to those desiring a continuum of bullish expressions, which has never happened.

 

Thu-Jul 12-Wednesday’s bearishness along with today’s offsetting bullishness suggests both days were unnecessary. The one’s making money were commissions on trading while traders on both days made near-zero less those commissions. However, two short-term attributes are worthy of note. The DJT-(Chart) force vector shifted into bearish direction with bearishly positioned vector pressure. The DJT-(Chart) endured a new bear signal because of that. With that, near-term bullish unanimity was lost, while near-term bullish majority remains strongly intact. Some international ETF’s endured sell signals today, including one with a quick-term sell signal. Also, contrarian VIX-(Chart) force dropped to its common minimum with bullishly position vector pressure, establishing increased non-bearish probability. That could influence a non-bullish stock market, as most non-contrarian force vector cycles are bullishly mature. Mid-term Indicant configurations this weekend will indeed be interesting.

 

Tue-Jul 10-Short-term attributes are in full support of the stock market bull with the exception of vector pressure. Only three non-contrarians have climbed into bullish domains. Near-term neutrality (prices between Blue and Green) is always threatening to a desired near-term bull. That is the case for several non-contrarian ETF’s, while all major non-contrarian indices are blue bulls. That minimizes sustainable bearish ambition. However, the stock market bull requires bullishly positioned vector pressure. Continuing bullishness at best and non-bearishness at worst should deliver that highly desired attribute in a few days.  

 

Mon-Jul 9-Short-term bullish unanimity is being enjoyed by virtue of renewed near-term bullish unanimity. All major non-contrarian indices are bulls along the near-term and quick-term cycles with contrarian VIX enduring bear signals on both of those cycles. Of course, the quick-term cycle has been signaling bull for over 107-weeks. As stated in the last weekly stock market report, Mid-term Indicant force vector behavior will be telling this coming weekend. A shift into a bullish direction will encourage the stock market bull for more bullish days along the short-term horizon.

 

Please review the below sections for more insight.

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

 

Index Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

Number of Near-term Bulls: 10 of 12

Duration of Near-term Bulls: 1.9-wks-avg.

Near-term Bull Performance: 1.9%; Annualized Performance: 51.5%

 

Number of Near-term Bears: 2 of 12

Average Duration of Near-term Bears: 0.6-wks. avg.

Near-term Bears Average Performance: -4.2%

Configured Advantage: Near-term Stock Market Bull, effective Jul 6, 2018.

           

Near-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses  

Near-term Indicant Configured Bullish Blue Bulls: 99 of 12

Near-term Indicant Configured Bearish Green Bears: 0 of 12 

Position Advantage: Near-term Stock Market Bull, effective Jul 5, 2018.

 

Index Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

                                               

Number of Quick-term Bulls: 11 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term Bulls: 108.3-wks.

Quick-term Bull Performance: 43.7%; Quick-term Annualized Performance: 21.0%

 

Number of Quick-term Bears: 1 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term: Bears: 1.0-weeks-avg.     

Quick-term Bear Performance: -8.9%

 

Quick-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 7 of 12 

Configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 0 of 12

 

Configured Advantage: Quick-term Stock Market Bull effective Nov 7, 2016. Yellow Bears have not outnumbered Red Bulls since then.

                       

Short-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Non-contrarian force vectors in bullish domains: 11 of 11

Non-contrarian force vectors higher than vector pressure: 10 of 11

Non-contrarian vector pressure in bullish domains: 10 of 11

Non-contrarian force vectors with bullish direction:  4 of 11                                   

Non-contrarian vector pressure with bullish direction: 10 of 11

Advantage: Short-term Stock Market Bull, effective Jul 6, 2018.

 

Indicant Volume Indicators

Fri-Jul 13-Recent average volume on mild stock market bullishness does not threaten any desired bullish or bearish bias. That favors the stock market bull along the short-term horizon.

 

Thu-Jul 12-Higher volume on bullish aggression, wiping out yesterday’s nonsensicality suggests irrationality remains as temporary.

 

Wed-Jul 11-Reduced volume in the face of nonsensical stock market bearishness means irrationality is widespread and with that, no other comment is necessary.

 

Tue-Jul 10-Again, relatively passive volume on strong stock market bullishness suggests this bullish spurt may be followed by a stronger bear, but not right now. Too many short-term attributes are piercing the severely wounded stock market bear.

 

Mon-Jul 9-Passive volume on strong stock market bullishness is not that supportive of the stock market bull, but summertime low volume bulls are not uncommon.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

ETF Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 23-ETF’s. Those enjoying hold signals are up by an average of 2.9% since their buy signals an average of 4.7-weeks ago, annualizing at 31.5%.

 

The NTI is avoiding 9-ETFs. They are down by an average of 5.3% since their sell signals 4.8-weeks ago.

 

Near-term ETF Cycle Analyses

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 1

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 2

 

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 1 

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 1

 

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 18

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 1

 

Advantage: Near-term stock market bull, as of Jul 5, 2018

         

ETF Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

                                   

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 22-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 36.5% since their buy signals an average of 70.1-weeks ago, annualizing at 27.1%.                                                                                  

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 10-ETFs. They are down by an average of 11.1% since their sell signals an average of 14.4-weeks ago.

                            

Quick-term ETF Cycle Analyses         

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 2

           

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 1

           

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 17

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 5    

 

Advantage: Quick-term stock market bull, effective May 11, 2018.

 

Reverse Tangential Projections       

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections.

           

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

Other links:     

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the S&P500 Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Understanding Content on the Short-term Indicant Charts

 

Indicant Conclusion

As stated last week, “bullish unanimity, along the Mid-term Indicant cycle is highly desired, while that tends to invigorate the stock market bear.” The stock market bear was not inspired by the resurgence of bullish unanimity this past week. However, the DJU-(Chart) was punished by the stock market bear is its new bull signal last week was what generated bullish unanimity. Revenge is ever present. With that, this past week was indeed interesting, while this intense period is not yet over. There are  too many conflicting attributes where some support the stock market bull, while others support the stock market bear.

 

As stated the past several weeks, “inflation and/or rising interest rates will be the next challenge. The modern day democratic-(communist) party regaining control over congress in 2018 will stimulate political calamity and high inflation.” Deep State shenanigans also threatens the stock market bull.

 

As stated seven weeks ago, “contemporary democrats desire social chaos as that would justify marshal law, which is the first step required for communistic takeover. So far, the stock market is not detecting Deep State victories this November nor is it detecting Deep State opposition this November.” The flat stock market pretty much proves it remains undecided who the victors will be in November. That flatness is nearing an end as the lead time for political results in November is now here.

           

Click this sentence to keep up with the Short-term Indicant.

 

Click this sentence to maintain stock market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.

 

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.

 

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

 

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

 

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc., click the following hyperlink:

 

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm 

 

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the website, so you can always find your way back.

 

Stop Loss Management

This was moved to the bottom of this report as its content rarely changes. You will be notified when stop losses should be tightened or loosened.

 

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized capital gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the greater value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences.

 

For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

 

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying. Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

 

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

 

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

 

Happy Investing,

 

www.indicant.net

07/15/2018

 

 

 

©All material contained in this Web site is copyright protected. Any redistribution of any information in this Web site is expressly prohibited unless written authorization is granted by the publisher  of Indicant.Net.

Additional Hyperlinks - Just click on any of the below to get where you want to go.Become a Member | DIA History Since 1900 | Back Issues | Mutual Fund Listing | Contact Us | Historical Performance Metric | Performance Summary for Stocks and Funds | Current Performance Report Card | Sector Funds That Did Well in Bear Return to first page of Quick-term Indicant Charts

Market of 2000-2001 | ETF Tour| Option Stalking |Stocks | Ezine | Stocks in Spotight | Indicant Volume Indicator | Perspectives | Seasonality

- **** -    -*****-