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Sep 16, 2018 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 09, Issue 03 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report


The Stock Market Arguments Against Trump’s Impeachment

Last week, the stock market bull confronted prior week’s bearish behavior with a solid bullish response. Adding insult to the stock market bear was that this past week’s bullish response occurred during the early stages of the heart and soul of bearish seasonality. Although there are six weeks of this bearish seasonality remaining, configurations are not supportive of that historical normalcy this year.


Fundamentally, there is good reason to expect the heart and soul of bullish seasonality to invoke its influence this year with the so-called political elite, Deep State, and orangutan journalists demanding Trump’s impeachment. The polls support these modern-day communists enjoying their success in November of this year. Of course, those same polls strongly suggested Hillary Clinton was going to be president in 2016.


Rationalizing the potential for a democratic (communist-party) victory suggests Trump may not get farmer votes. Fidelity Food and Agriculture, MF#43-(Chart) represents profit projections. As you can see from the chart, profit projections are pessimistic. This is because of international trade tensions that originated from president Trump. People getting poorer typically do not vote for any incumbent while the content of their pocket books shrink.


Most people live in the here and now. Trade tensions are definitely causation to shrinking pocket books in the food and farming business, but most of those farmers have no idea how much more their pocket books will shrink with a communistic takeover by the democratic party.


There is little doubt Trump will lose farmer votes. If all else were the same as the November 2016 presidential election with Trump not getting farmer votes, Hillary Clinton would most likely be president now. So, if all else were the same in this mid-term congressional election, the democrats will likely take-over and if they do that in both houses, Trump would most likely be impeached. However, fewer food stamp recipients may cross over to the republicans.


If that last sentence were believed to be true by the overall equity markets, they would be down and significantly so. The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 79-mutual funds of the 94-active ones being tracked by the Indicant. They are up 75.3% since the Indicant’s buy signals an average of 237-weeks ago. There are 15-avoided mutual funds and they are down an average of 8.8% since the Indicant’s sell signals an average of 93-weeks ago. With that, the overall markets are no expecting a Trump impeachment.


Let’s contrast the above with one of the most impressive congressional mid-term election years on record. On Sep 17, 2010, following a very strong bullish 2009, the Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 41-mutual funds that were up only 15.9% since their buy signals 55.5-weeks earlier. On that weekend, the Mid-term Indicant signaled buy for 41-mutual funds. Two months later, Obama democrats lost the U.S. House of Representatives.  


Rather than looking at polls, look at the stock market. Folks investing in the stock market are a lot smarter than pollsters, Deep State employees, and orangutan journalists. The stock market did not like democrats having absolute control in 2008. The stock market bear started its decline in 2007 and accelerated it in Sep-Oct 2008 when it was apparent an unaccomplished socialist was going to become president of the United States with a democratic Senate and House.  


So, right now, the Short-term Indicant is enjoying bullish unanimity along both the near-term and quick-term cycle. The Mid-term Indicant is also enjoying bullish unanimity. It is not only enjoying bullish unanimity, it is enjoying Red Bull and Blue Bull unanimity among all ten major indices.


With that, one can project that Trump will not be impeached. Although farmers may not vote for Trump, several normally voting democrats may cross over and vote for Trump since fewer of them are no food stamps with their recent abilities to gain employment. Trump may lose the House, but unlikely to lose the Senate. With that, he cannot be impeached. The possibility of losing the House may be one reason why the stock market bull has been lackluster for the most part this year.


Remember, investors in equity markets are much smarter than pollsters, Deep State employees, and orangutan journalists.


The next section highlights the current condition of the stock market.


Mid-term Indicant Status of the Major Indices

The major stock market indices can be accessed by clicking this sentence.


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Mid-term Indicant Red Bulls-Click for Explanation1): 10-Red Bulls, 0-Non-Red Bulls

            Comment: Red Bull unanimity has continued the past five weeks despite confrontational fundamental issues along the political and international spectrum. The ten major indices are above Red by 11.0%.


Mid-term Indicant Blue Bulls-Click for Explanation2): 10-Blue Bull, 0-Non-Blue Bulls

            Comment: Blue Bull unanimity remains intact for the third consecutive week. The major indices are above Blue by an average of 2.7%. This, along with Red Bull unanimity, is an expression of solid support for the stock market bull.


Mid-term Indicant Yellow Bears-Click for Explanation3): 0-Yellow Bears, 10-Non-Yellow Bears

                Comment: None of the major indices are threatening on becoming a Yellow Bear. Falling to Yellow Bear status requires an average drop, overall, of the ten major indices, of 34.7% from current position. Without Yellow Bears, the stock market bear has difficulty in gaining long-term dominance. The gap between prevailing prices and the Yellow Bear is too wide to be considered where the next bear signals will occur. The Indicant will not wait for the market to fall 34.7% before signaling bear. Currently, losing Red Bull status is where the next bear signals will occur with the exception of the DJU and DJT, where Green is still below Red. In those two cases, the next bear signal will occur at or below Green. In other words, The Indicant will tolerate a drop of 11.0% to next bear signals, overall.


Mid-term Indicant Green Bears-Click for Explanation4): 0-Green Bears, 10-Non-Green Bears

                Comment: Overall, the major indices are above Green by 10.0%. At this point bear signals are not to be considered until the market falls another 11.0%, which is the distance to the bullish red curves. In other words, Green Bears will occur before Red Bulls expire and thus the expiration of Red Bulls will trigger Mid-term Indicant bear signals with the exception of the DJU and DJT. The absence of green bears is not supportive of the stock market bear.


Mid-term Indicant Red to Green Position5): Two Reds Higher than Green; Eight Greens Higher Than Red

                Comment: This attribute continues identifying an overheated bull market. The DJT-(Chart) and the DJU-(Chart) are the only major indices where Green is not above Red. The DJT and DJU have yet enjoyed their green curves to cross above their red curves in this cycle. Red, overall, is only 0.8% below Green. This particular bull market’s cooling periods retain bull status, disallowing incursions by the stock market bear.


Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Position6): 10-bullish domains, 0-bearish domains

                Comment: This is a much-desired bullish attribute.


Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Relative to Vector Pressure7): 6-above pressure, 4-below pressure

                Comment: One fell below pressure last week with mild stock market bearishness, but the majority remains supportive of the stock market bull.


Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Position8): 10-bullish domains, 0-bearish domains

                Comment: This favors the stock market bull. The stock market bear can only pester, as opposed to dominating, as long as pressure is in bullish domains.


Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Direction9): 5-bullish, 5-bearish

                Comment: This attribute decreased support for the stock market bull this past week despite mild bullishness in the overall markets this past week.


Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Direction10): 7-bullish, 3-bearish

            Comment: Despite the loss of one bullishly directed, the majority remains with bullish support. It is mildly concerning that some pressures are declining.


Click this sentence to review how to understand the above terms.

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Mid-term Indicant Configured Condition of Major Indices: As stated for several months and now years, the prevailing Red Bull population minimizes the potential for deep and long-lasting stock market bearishness. Most Mid-term Indicant attributes continue configuring with bullish support, but with a narrowing majority in doing so.


Whipsawed – Review of Wild Swings Last Week

This section highlights last week’s biggest gainers and losers within each group of stocks and funds tracked by the Mid-term Indicant. The groups are the NASDAQ100- Stocks, the Indicant Selected Stocks (mainly energy and former NASDAQ100 stocks, coded ISTK), the Dow Jones 30-Stocks (DJIA), the Dow Utilities (DJU) and Mutual Funds(MF). The below excludes Short-term Indicant tracking of ETF’s and the major indices, which are updated periodically throughout each week.


Discovery, NAS#43-DISCK-(Chart), was up 14.8% last week as the NASDAQ100’s biggest gainer. It is also up 29.4% since the Indicant’s May 11, 2018 buy signal. This security is fighting gallantly to abdicate its five year bearish cycle. It is now enjoying Red Bull status with bullish vector pressure. Continue holding. Sears Holding, NAS#83-SHLD-(Chart), was down 25.6% as the NASDAQ100’s most bearish stock. It is also down 97.4% since the Indicant’s Dec 2013 sell signal. Continue avoiding this Yellow Bear.


Discovery Holdings, ISTK#41-DISCA-(Chart), was up 15.1% last week as this group of stock’s most bullish. It is also up 15.5% since the Indicant’s Jul 2018 buy signal. This security is and embryonic Red Bull, but not yet enjoying bullish pressure. Continue holding with a relatively tight stop loss. Protein Design, ISTK#97-PDLI-(Chart), was down 6.1% last week as the most bearish in this group of stocks. It is also down 69.4% since the Indicant’s Jan 2015 sell signal. Continue avoiding this Yellow Bear.


Microsoft, DJIA#04-MSFT-(Chart), was up 4.8% as the Dow30’s best performing stock last week. It is also up 314.1% since the Indicant’s Oct 2011 buy signal. This stock remains a solid Red Bull to be held. Its Bing package may gain some market share with Google Geeks attempting to influence presidential elections and helping Chinese communists hold down the dreams and hopes of its citizens. Minnesota, Mining, Manufacturing, DJIA#19-MMM-(Chart), was down 2.2% as the most bearish Dow30 stock last week. However, it is up 163.5% since the Indicant’s Oct 2011 buy signal. This great old company continues to impress and should continue to do so.


AES, DJU#05-AES-(Chart), was up 3.4% as last weeks most bullish Dow Utility stock. It is also up 3.7% since the Indicant’s Jun 15, 2018 buy signal. This stock may indeed finally escape the stranglehold it has endured since the 2008-stock market bear gnawed on it. NiSource, DJU#03-NiSource-(Chart), was down 9.4% as the most bearish Dow Utility stock. Despite that insult, this stock is up 272.7% since the Indicant’s Sep 2010 buy signal. This stock is enduring the dreaded M-Shape, but doubtful it will endure deep bearishness in the foreseeable future.


Fidelity Financial Service, MF#40-FSESX-(Chart), was up 3.5% as the most bullish mutual fund last week. It is down 7.3% since the Indicant’s Apr 27, 2018 buy signal.  Its short-cycle blue curve collapsed this past week. That is indeed bearish, but also a common rebounding point. Set a tight stop loss in the event it blue’s weight shoves in deeper to the south. Fidelity Dividend Growth, MF#64-FDGFX-(Chart), was down 13.8% last week as the most bearish mutual fund last week. That was a significant drop for a mutual fund, but mainly due to a $5.078 Dividend payment. The Indicant does not adjust weekly data, while it applies such adjustments to daily information, such as ETF’s. Despite all that, this dividend mutual fund remains with bullish configurations.


Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Last Ten Years

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows in this section. It highlights historical performance since 2002. Simply scroll down the webpage to see graphical and detail content of this section. The below describes the same for the past five years. If a particular year interest you, click this sentence, which will show you all of the prior weekly reports dating back to 2002 along with Indicant performance levels at the time of those reports. From there, you can click the year of interest and then to the specific time-period you are interested in. Please note that prior to the Weekly Stock Market Report, dated Aug 12, 2018, ten years of history was replaced with five years of history. Again, historical weekly reports, dating to 2002 remain available on the website. As 2008’s great bear market fades beyond the 10th anniversary, just as the NASDAQ’s 2002 drop of 89% was also no longer reported in 2012, it is no longer necessary to report 2008 here. These historical references, however, do remain on the website. 


The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals this weekend. Clicking this sentence is where the Mid-term Indicant buy and sell signals are displayed.  


The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 252 of the 321-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. Stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 229.1% that annualizes to 51.0%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 252-stocks and funds for an average of 233.5-weeks. There have been 64-buy signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.


The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 69-stocks and funds of 321-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 18.7% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 81.0-weeks ago. There have been 82-sell signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.


One year ago, on Sep 15, 2017 the Mid-term Indicant was holding 261-stocks and funds of the 321-tracked for an average of 225.5-weeks. They were up by an average of 186.8% (annualized at 43.1%). There were 59-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down by an average of 16.5% since their respective sell signals an average of 96.8-weeks earlier, one year ago. There was one buy signal and no sell signals on this weekend in 2017. There had been 58-buy signals and 48-sell signals for the year through this weekend in 2017.


The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 278-stocks on Sep 16, 2016. They were up 140.4% since their buy signals an average of 191.4-weeks earlier, annualizing at 38.1%. There were 59-avoided stocks on this weekend since their sell signals an average of 90.8-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and one sell signal on this weekend in 2016. There had been 114-buy signals and 81-sell signals through this weekend in 2016. Polls favored Hillary Clinton throughout most of that year’s election cycle. That confronted the stock market bull and encouraged the stock market bear. Presidential candidate, Hillary Clinton, once said she would take corporate profits and do something better with the money was not only laughable, but seriously confronted the stock market bull.


The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 238-stocks and funds of the 338-tracked on Sep 18, 2015. They were up by an average of 163.4%, annualizing at 36.6%, since their respective buy signals an average of 232.1-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 98-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 16.5% since their respective sell signals an average of 55.5-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and two sell signals on this weekend in 2015. There were 25-year-to-date buy signals and 86-sell signals at this time of year in 2015. This presidential pre-election year was somewhat uneventful and tame, following unusually strong post-election year bullishness in 2013 and a flat 2014-mid-term presidential election year.


The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 317-stocks and funds of the 338-tracked on Sep 12, 2014. They were up by an average of 126.7%, annualizing at 38.1%, since their respective buy signals an average of 172.7-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 21-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 24.9% since their respective sell signals an average of 82.4-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2014. There had been a total of 22-buy signals and 22-sell signals through this weekend in 2014. The market was mostly flat that year following the very strong 2013 bull leg that was inspired, in part, by sequestration.


There were 304-stocks and funds with hold signals of the 338-tracked by the Mid-term Indicant on Sep 13, 2013 since their buy signals an average of 137.8-weeks earlier. They were up by an average of 94.7% (annualized at 35.7%). There were 28-avoided stocks and funds at that time. They were down by an average of 29.2% from their respective sell signals an average of 80.6-weeks earlier. There were five buy signals and one sell signal on this weekend in 2013. There had been 79-buy signals and 50-sell signals through this weekend in 2013. This was an impressively bullish year, as sequestration inspired the stock market bull along an accelerated growth plane. Although sequestered spending was minimal, the underlying principles of handcuffing the irrationality of politicians inspired the stock market bull.


The above performance reflects status at the time of the updates. Abandoned securities have no impact to the above performance statistics and the historical report card. They always represent status at the time of that status and never changes. When securities become NLT (no longer traded), their performance levels are excluded from the report card at the time they become NLT. There are no retroactive adjustments. The number of stocks and funds tracked from week to week may differ because they are no longer traded or listed on major stock exchanges.     


The Indicant started retaining records of abandoned stocks and funds in 2012. There are advantages of retaining records by expressing the consequences of an organization employing dilettante management and related corporate leeching. All organizations eventually expire. The primary causes of such expirations are corporate leeching, stupidity, and arrogance (without cause). {Note: the same is true of governments that fall prey to either economic leeching (FDR) and/or excessive egomaniacal behavior by its leaders (Hitler)}. Click here to see abandoned securities.


Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals

Buying and selling have been limited for the past few years, as the bull’s perseverance has prevented a solid bear market for nearly ten years. That reduces the number of stocks in temporary decline to earn new buy signals since they have been enjoying hold signals for several years. Although Mid-term attributes are not strongly bullish, the stock market bear has been unable to gain traction with only minor pestering since early 2009. It is very possible for that to continue for seven to nine more years but being challenged by strong bear-friendly political fundamentals. The threat of trade wars confronts a relaxed posture toward the stock market bull. Equally confronting basic economics is the political elite’s desire to shift representative government to a politburo form of government. In other words, your vote is meaningless, while the so-called political elite desire to control who your ruler is. Freedom has never been a gift. It has always been earned, but every six to ten generations, it is usually lost, as the success of ancestor’s hard-won victories are not understood by those who inherited those successes.


Clicking this sentence will take you to this weekend’s Mid-term Indicant buy/sell signals.


The Short-term Indicant signals buy and sell for ETF’s, almost daily, provided the ETF’s enjoy a buy signal or endure a sell signal. They are not included in the Mid-term Indicant summaries. These short-term models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts, while the Mid-term Indicant includes fundamentals and longer-term technical data to reject short-term trader nervousness. The Daily Stock Market Report reports status for the short-term model.


The Indicant Stock Market Report’s Secular Market Blend

The Dow is up 259.0% since its secular weekly low on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ is up 619.0% and the S&P500 is up 274.0% since then. The small cap index, S&P600, is up 536.3% since October 9, 2002.


The NASDAQ was bearish by 31.4% through this weekend in 2001’s presidential post-election year. It finished 2001 down by 21.1%, which was congruent with the standards of post-election-year-bearishness. As many of you recall, the markets succumbed to the stock market bear during the most part of 2001.


The NASDAQ was down 33.8% through this weekend in 2002’s mid-term election-year. Some of you recall the dynamic bear market in 2002, where the NASDAQ finished that year down by 31.5%. The NASDAQ stock market bear cycle found bottom in October 2002, which was consistent with historical standards of finding bottoms during mid-term election years. It fell over 80% from its all-time high on March 9, 2000 by late 2002.


The NASDAQ was up 38.9% on this weekend in 2003’s presidential pre-election year. It finished 2003 up by 50.0%, which was consistent with historical pre-election year results, despite the start of the Iraq war in March of that year. It was down on this weekend in 2004 by 4.4% in the meandering bear market of 2004 that dampened bullish enthusiasm, but the NASDAQ finished 2004’s presidential pre-election year up by 8.6%. This was `congruent with presidential election year bullishness, although shy of magnitude standards.


It was down 1.2% on this weekend in 2005’s post-election year, which was consistent with historical standards of losses and/or minimal gains during post-election years. It finished up by 1.4% in 2005. This was an excellent year, based on post-election year historical standards of bearishness. Many of you recall that 2004 and 2005 were meandering bear markets. Some of you recall a new bullish cycle originated in August 2005 that carried through until mid-2007. The stock market enjoyed that nice bullish ride, following the meandering bear market of 2004 through Aug 2005.


In 2006, the NASDAQ was up 1.1% on this weekend. It finished up in 2006 by 9.5%, which maintained congruency of historical bullishness for a mid-term election year.  


The NASDAQ was up 7.7% through this weekend in 2007, finishing that year up by 9.8%. The stock market peaked in 2007 from the 2003-bull leg after democrats took control of Congress in early 2007. George W. went along with them as opposed to repelling them. That inspired the stock market bear and added depth to its decline. Of course, the housing bubble contributed. Politicians originated it, like many adverse economic conditions.


The NASDAQ was down by 14.7% on this weekend in 2008. It finished 2008 down by 40.5%. That was extreme contrarian performance to the standards of historical election year bullishness. The overall stock market endured the most bearish presidential election year since related records from 1832. The history from 1832 used other indices until the DJIA’s inception in 1896.


It was up 32.6% on this weekend in 2009, while finishing that year up by 43.9%. Keep in mind, the extraordinary bullish cycle in 2009 finished that year down by 20.6% from its prior weekly cyclical peak on October 31, 2007. The 2008 bear market more accurately reflected economic fundamentals than the 2009 bull market. Much of the 2009 bull market correlated well with declining political popularity.


The NASDAQ was up 0.7% on this weekend in 2010. It finished that year up by 16.9%, which was consistent with mid-term election year bullishness; especially in the second half of such years. The stock market was explosively bullish through the mid-term election year when it was obvious the Republicans would regain control of the House and possibly the Senate.


It was down 3.0% on this weekend in 2011. Unfortunately, the NASDAQ finished 2011 down by 7.3%. Some prior reports errantly stated the NASDAQ finished up in 2011. The S&P500 finished flat in 2011 while the DJIA finished up by 5.5% that year. This was an unusual conclusion for a presidential pre-election year. The enhancement of socialism and the threat of communism confused the stock market.


The NASDAQ was up 22.2% on this weekend in 2012, finishing that year up by 15.9%, which was classically bullish for the presidential election year. One reason for its bearish tail in the second half of that year was the re-election of the incumbent president. Four more years of incumbency invites exponential increases in corruption with expanded economic turmoil.  


It was up 23.3% on this weekend in 2013, finishing that normally bearish presidential post-election year up by a whopping 38.3%. Extraordinary stock market bullishness in 2013 correlated well with sequestration. The Dow and S&P500 closed out 2013 up by 26.5% and 29.6%, respectively, and diabolically opposed to a long history of presidential post-election year bearishness. Politically contributing elements were 1) sequestration and 2) continuing democratic losses at the city, county, state, and federal levels. Fortunately, communistic orations by the democratic party were repulsed by an increasingly number of smarter voters after their profound stupidity in the 2006-mid-term elections, allowing the democrats a majority in both the house and senate.  


The NASDAQ was up 9.4% in 2014, finishing that year up 13.4% even though starting out the year very slowly and enduring some significant near-term bearish cycles throughout 2014. The presidential use of executive orders countered normal stock market bullishness that usually accompanies political partisanship. The executive branch may undo the political cycle model if constitutional breeches accelerate. Obama’s successor could use an executive order to arrest Obama, Holder, and others for breaking the law and violation their oaths. Of course, aggravating constitutional authority will eventually erode the designed intention of the founding fathers. Human kind will regret it but will be too stupid to recognize their culpability in their economic decline.


The NASDAQ was up 1.5% on this weekend in 2015. It finished 2015 up by 5.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 2.2% for the first bearish conclusion in a presidential pre-election year since 1939.


The NASDAQ was up 3.3% on this weekend in 2016 with polls suggesting Hillary Clinton as the obvious president elect. It finished 2016 up by 7.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 13.4% due, primarily, to a late year bullish explosion on the defeat of Hillary Clinton for the presidency and continued erosion of the democratic party.


The NASDAQ was up 19.4% on this weekend in 2017, finishing that presidential post-election year up b            y 28.2% with Donald Trump’s first year as president. Deregulating and undoing prior political damage to the economy is causation to that profound bullishness.


The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 5.8% this year. The S&P500 is up 8.7% for the year and the NASDAQ is up 16.0% this year. The S&P600 is up 16.0% this year.  The Dow Transports is up 9.0% and Dow Utilities is up 1.9% this year.


The Dow is up 84.6% since its prior weekly closing peak on Oct 9, 2007. The NASDAQ is up 180.2% since its last cyclical peak on Oct 31, 2007. The S&P500 is up 85.6% since its Oct 9, 2007 peak. The 2007 peaks coincide with political coziness in Washington D.C., which solidified in early 2007, as George W. Bush’s liberal tendencies melded well with the newly elected socialistic leaning congress with a similar fiscal liberalism and the dangerous practice of fascism.


All major indices are holding above their 2007-peaks. The Dow Utilities was the last of the major indices to return to 2007-peak levels. It took about seven years to do so but fell back below its 2007-peak in early Jan 2016. It is again above its Jul 19, 2007-peak by 33.3%.


The NASDAQ is above its 2000-peak by 58.7%. The NASDAQ100 finally crossed above its March 2000 all-time high on Nov 6, 2015, fell below shortly thereafter, and then crossed back above that peak on Jul 29, 2016. It also fell below that peak weekending Sep 9, 2016 and again crossing back above its March 24, 2000 peak on weekending Sep 16, 2016. It is above that peak by 60.4%. The S&P100 finally toppled its Mar 23, 2000 peak on May 2, 2013. It is now above that peak by 54.4%.


Although exact simultaneous bottoming did not occur on March 9, 2009, tracking from that pivot-point has been and will continue to be appropriate. This inexactness lends credence to the reverse tangential projections with a short-term view and increasingly so. Consequently, March 9, 2009 is the pivot date to monitor performance since the March 2009 bottoming from the 2007-2008 bear cycle. When prices fall below reverse tangential projections, new pivot points will be defined.


The Dow is up 299.5% since March 9, 2009, which is the “bottoming” pivot date from the great bear market of 2007/8. The NASDAQ is up 531.4% and the S&P500 is up 329.4% since then. The S&P600, Small Cap Index, is up 497.6% since March 9, 2009. That March 2009-current bull leg was indeed powerful, but such cycles have occurred many times in the past only to be followed by bear cycles of varying breadth and depth. The Federal Reserve may be held in check by fearing Trump tweets and not accelerate rate increases during his first term. So far, the Fed remains passive, but recent rate hikes offer some arguments against being passive.           


The stock market bull is usually aroused and significantly so when congress and the president are at odds. This leads to a “do-nothing” government, which is usually bullish. The only positive economic contribution politicians can do is undoing their prior damage and the damage caused by their predecessors. The bullishness that occurs during do-nothing periods is due to the absence of additional economic damage by politicians. It will be interesting if a republican administration with a republican congress can upset 180-years of being bearish when those two bodies agree. So far, they are in disagreement and more or less disallowing an undoing of prior political damage. That dispute may indeed prevent resumption of more political damage. Also, Trump is having some success in deregulation, which is always bullish.


Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.


Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for several years, do not fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it does change. The markets, both free and controlled, are not constant. A massive bear market, depending on the magnitude of combined interest rates and inflation, will eventually occur. The more politicians attempt to generate the markets as a constant, the less constant they become. The combined absolute value of interest rates, inflation/deflation remain less than 8.0% and thus no related threat of depressed economic behavior exists now. That is a temporary condition.


Although increasing above the norms of Obama economic sluggishness, the reported CPI remains relatively healthy, while the PPI remains non-threatening. As stated several times in this report, Trump-Economics will be inflationary. It has begun, but not yet threatening. The pending cure to that will be a simplified tax code; that is one post-card type of form with the outright elimination of the IRS, CPA’s, and others in the economically non-value adding tax related jobs. That is unlikely, however.


The Prime Rate, Discount Rate, and Effective Rate increased another 25-basis points on week-ending Jun 15, 2018, following similar increases on week-endings Dec 23, 2016, Mar 17, 2017, Jun 15, 2017, Dec 15, 2017, Mar 23, 2018. You should notice the spike in the 3-month T-Bill shortly after Trump’s election. The 2020-mean forecast continues escaping from its prior near zero projections.  Rates remain at low levels and thus not yet impeding economic growth. They are becoming more aggressive, however, and increasingly likely to be too slow and low to fend off inflation. Despite that, the annual inflation rate is being reported with only 2.7% to date this year. Oil prices are up 56.5% from this time a year ago, which has a very high correlation to inflation. There is more about oil later.


The Federal Reserve’s Quarter 2, 2017 promise of being passive on rate hikes remains as being challenged with noticeable increases in interest rates. The 3-Month T-Bill remains low and non-threatening to the stock market bull, despite recent rate hike aggression. It’s gallop to the north is slowing a bit. There is a future point where its rise will punish the stock market bull. If the Fed slows future rate hikes and OPEC has their way with increasing oil prices, inflationary pressures will also be unfriendly to the stock market bull.


The Euro fell into Yellow Bear status on week-ending Jun 15, 2018, but finding some resistance to deepening its Yellow Bear status. The prevailing bearish trend started the enjoyment of a shifting bullishly for the first time in nine years in early March 2018 like it has four times since 2008 only to be followed by its resumption of its long-term bearish trend. The 2020-mean forecast is at $1.17 with more aggressive intrinsic modeling, projecting $0.59.  


The Canadian dollar fell below the zone of neutrality on weekending Jul 15, 2017 with its strengthening. It returned to the neutral zone in late October 2017. It moved above Red (weakening) on weekending Jul 28, 2018, but again falling below Red (strengthening) on weekending Aug 31, 2018. Its 2020-mean forecast is $1.30CA with projected polynomials forecasting much weaker values exceeding $1.92CA to $1.83CA.


The Japanese Yen statistical mean forecast is at 110-yen/dollar by 2020 while the aggressive polynomials are projecting a range of 150-167-Yen/U.S. dollar. It shifted from the zone of neutrality to strengthening in late Feb 2018 and continues residence there with some recent steadying. It again is remaining in a tight trading zone. It strengthens when falling below Yellow. Trade tensions are influential on all international exchanges at this time. Despite that, international currencies are remaining stable, while international stock market indices habe been bearish the past few weeks.


British Pound returned to Yellow Bear status in mid-June 2016 with the BREXIT vote. However, it moved above Yellow on week-ending May 5, 2017 and crossed into Red Bull status on Sep 14, 2017, as the U.S. Dollar continued weakening even against this weak currency. It lost Red Bull status on week-ending May 11, 2018 by falling into the zone of neutrality and then returning to Yellow Bear status on weekending Jul 7, 2018. It is also resisting a deepening of its Yellow Bear status. Its 2020 statistical mean forecast is at $1.29 with more aggressive polynomials, projecting around $0.82-$0.83 by Dec 31, 2020. It falling to Yellow Bear status and not yet recovering suggests its long-term bearish cycle will not be overcome on the short-term horizon. Despite the BREXIT vote, Great Britain remains mired in socialistic mumbo-jumbo and its eventual bankruptcy will be the start of eradicating the stupidity emanating from the land of yellow-toothed people, who wait too long for dental care. Socialism creates long lines, while communism creates even longer lines. Communism and socialism offer maximal queuing at every human need requiring a specialist or a product. Over 50% of the people in many countries are too stupid to figure that out. The U.S.S.R. took about three generations of maximal poverty to figure that out. Although human beings have powerful brains, most do not know how to harness it, defaulting to bicameral tendencies.


The Bitcoin toppled $16,000 on most exchanges in late 2017 in skyrocketing fashion. It has weakened since then. It lost Red Bull status in late Mar/early Apr 2018. Even though it has declined, it remains in the zone of neutrality and resisting Yellow Bear status for several weeks, while remaining between $6,000-$9,000. It has been steadying the past several weeks with a mild bearish drift, while resisting in succumbing to Yellow Bear status. Its stability adds merit to its worthiness as a currency.


Gold remains a Yellow Bear. It did not hold Red Bull status after regaining that status on Jan 16, 2018, but dipped slightly below Red on week-ending May 11, 2018 and falling to Yellow Bear status during weekending Jul 13, 2018 and recently becoming a stronger Yellow Bear. Prevailing interest rates remain low, despite their recent hikes, and the corresponding weak dollar is encouraging bullish potential for gold. At some point, rising rates will strengthen the dollar, influencing gold’s bearishness. That appears to be the current theme, as the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen. The 2020-mean forecast is $1,298/oz. while the more aggressive polynomials are projecting a 2020 value approximating $702-$707/oz. You can keep up with an approximation of this on the Indicant Daily Stock Market Report by tracking ETF#11-GLD.


Oil returned to Red Bull status on Oct 5, 2017 and continuing bullishly since then. Its rise is congruent with inflationary themes going forward, while being contrarian to the above comments about gold. The 2020-intrinsic and aggressive polynomial forecast ranges from $0 to $0. That is correct, but like all forecast, it is erroneous. The 2020-statistical mean forecast is at $56/bbl. This forecast continues to avoid the decline it endured from 2013 through early 2018. Saudi Royalty is most likely targeting $90/BBL for the time being.


The CRB Bridge Futures is again down to the zone of neutrality after regaining Red Bull status on Nov 23, 2017 after succumbing to the Yellow Bear on weekending Jun 10, 2017. It is nearing Yellow Bear status yet again, despite strong economic conditions, but resisting Yellow Bear status. The 2020-mean forecast is at $189, while the more aggressive polynomials are forecasting zero by 2020.


Mortgage rates abandoned Yellow Bear status on Nov 3, 20 16 with a sharp rise to the enjoyment of Red Bull status for lenders and not for those desiring home ownerships. On Nov 25, 2016, it lost that Red Bull status. Mortgage rates regained Red Bull status in early March 2018 with momentum in their bullish configurations and continuing with bullish configurations, while softening the past few weeks.


The consumer price index and producer price index are computing without the combined absolute value of threatening interest rates and inflation or deflation of 8%. Considerations of deflationary threats are not out of line, though. Fortunately, there are millions around the world willing to work and be consumptive. With that, the strong may offset the weak.


Fear Metrics: Economics and Terrorism

Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals (VGPMX) - #19 was up 162.2% from its April 13, 2001 buy signal until the Mid-term Indicant sell signal on October 3, 2008. The Mid-term Indicant again signaled buy on Sep 17, 2010 but had to signal sell on Dec 16, 2011 for a disappointing loss of around 15%. It endured another disappointing loss of 9.7% between the Jan 27, 2012 buy signal and the Mar 16, 2012 sell signal. It again endured a sell signal on Feb 8, 2013, as it fell below its short-term green curve. It was down 30.9% since that Feb 2013 sell signal, when it enjoyed a buy signal on May 6, 2016. It endured a sell signal on Nov 25, 2016, after moving up 10% from that sell signal. That triggered a buy signal on Jan 13, 2017. This fund has remained flat to mildly bearish since then, enduing a sell signal on Jun 15, 2018 after falling to Yellow Bear status. It is down 17.9% since that sell signal.


Fidelity Gold Fund #28 also endured a sell signal on Jun 15, 2018. It is down 17.4% since that sell signal.


Vanguard Energy #18, VGENX, enjoyed a buy signal on Oct 13, 2017 and up 7.7% since then, annualizing at 8.2%.


Fidelity Energy Services #40, FSESX, enjoyed a buy signal on Apr 27, 2018. It is down 7.3% since then. It is very near enduring a sell signal as Trump’s influence over Saudi Royalty is taking shape. Last week’s bearishness more than offset prior week’s strong bullishness and again threatening a new sell signal.


State Street Research Global #9, SSGRX, enjoyed a buy signal on Apr 13, 2018. It is up 5.7% since then, annualizing at 13.2%.


Fidelity Energy #39, FSENX, enjoyed a buy signal on Dec 29, 2017 and up 3.7% since then, annualizing at 5.1%.


The Near-term Indicant signaled sell for ETF#03 – Energy and Natural Resources on Aug 13, 2018. It is down 0.1% since then. The Quick-term Indicant signaled buy on Apr 9, 2018. It is up 10.5% since then, annualizing at 23.8%.


The Near-term and Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for GLD-ETF#11-Gold on Jun 15, 2018. It is down 6.9% since then.


Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals.    


The Mid-term Indicant is signaling bull for all ten of the major indices. The existing bulls are up by an average of 50.5% since their bull signals an average of 117.4-weeks ago, annualizing at 22.4%.


The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $71.778-million. That beats buy and hold performance of $3.920-million on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $3.633-million. That beats buy and hold’s $1.710-million on a Jan 6, 1950 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $2.261-million. That beats buy and hold’s $801,004 on a Jan 29, 1971 $10,000 investment.  The MTI-Dow Transports is at $40.165-million. That is better than buy and hold $828,441 since a $10,000 investment on Oct 19, 1928. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1,730.8%, 112.4%, 182.3%, and 4,748.3%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.


There are two reasons why the Dow Transports is included in the above summary. It is used by the Dow Theory Forecast, which has merit, albeit slowly. The second reason is the statistical friendliness and its near-perfect sinusoidal waves. It tends to stay committed to its underlying cycle of bullishness or bearishness more than other indices.


The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals. The Indicant’s advantage only occurs during bear signals.


Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.


Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.


Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.


Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.


Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks  

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.


Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history. Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.


The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 99.0% since then. Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy and hold during 2009, 2013, and 2017, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation, for the most part, in those three presidential post-election years. Polls and recent elections are highlighting left leaning political movements. Although their accuracy is indeed questionable, a return to politburo wannabes in congress will offer this fund and others like it, profound growth opportunities at some future point, but not right now. Of course, if that happens, you would not enjoy the opportunity to enjoy the wealth this would provide you.


Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds


Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.


Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.


The Dow is up 803.5% (annualized at 29.8%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,402-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.


Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.


The next section is the last daily stock market report for this past week


Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Archives

{Repeated here are from the last trading day’s daily stock market report from the previous week. Click this link to see all the daily reports from the last 12-months. Retaining here in the weekly report allows for longer retention periods of the daily stock market reports that describe the short-term cycle at the end of each week}.


Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Summary

Fri-Sep 14-Bullish unanimity continued, mildly, since its birth last Tuesday among the major indices. Most short-term attributes favor the stock market bull, except for international markets. Technically, the primary concern is the VIX’s-(Chart)  bullish vector pressure and it falling to a Yellow Bear. That condition is potentially volatile and places a bit of a lid on overall stock market bullishness. Despite all of that, overall, the stock market bull remains dominant, albeit being challenged a bit right now.


Tue-Sep 11-As expected, contrarian VIX-(Chart), endured a short bull cycle. It endured a new bear signal.

Partially contrarian ETF#14-TLT-(Chart) endured a sell signal. The bear/sell signal favors the stock market bull (not the stock market bear). However, volatility remains with high probabilities as VIX pressure remains in bullish domains. TLT’s force vector is attempting to abandon its bearish cycle. Its behavior the next few weeks will be interesting.


Please review the below sections for more insight.


Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.


Index Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.


Number of Near-term Bulls: 11 of 12

Duration of Near-term Bulls: 10.5-wks-avg.

Near-term Bull Performance: 5.3%; Annualized Performance: 26.1%


Number of Near-term Bears: 1 of 12

Average Duration of Near-term Bears: 0.4-wks. avg.

Near-term Bears Average Performance: -8.7%

Near-term Performance Advantage: July 6, 2018-Stock Market Bull


Near-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses  

Near-term Indicant Configured Bullish Blue Bulls: 6 of 12

Near-term Indicant Configured Bearish Green Bears: 0 of 12 

Near-term Position Advantage: Aug 16, 2018-Near-term Stock Market Bull.


Index Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.


Number of Quick-term Bulls: 11 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term Bulls: 117.3-wks.

Quick-term Bull Performance: 49.3%; Quick-term Annualized Performance: 21.9%


Number of Quick-term Bears: 1 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term: Bears: 0.4-weeks-avg.     

Quick-term Bear Performance: -8.7%


Quick-term Performance Advantage: Nov 7, 2016-Quick-term Stock Market Bull. Yellow Bears have not outnumbered Red Bulls since then.


Quick-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 11 of 12           

Configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 0 of 12


Quick-term Configured Advantage: Nov 7, 2016-Quick-term Stock Market Bull. Yellow Bears have not outnumbered Red Bulls since then.


Short-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Non-contrarian force vectors in bullish domains: 10 of 11

Non-contrarian force vectors higher than vector pressure: 6 of 11

Non-contrarian vector pressure in bullish domains: 11 of 11

Non-contrarian force vectors with bullish direction:  11 of 11                                             

Non-contrarian vector pressure with bullish direction: 2 of 11

Short-term Advantage: Short-term Stock Market Bull, effective Jul 6, 2018.


Indicant Volume Indicators

Fri-Sep 14-Flat volume on flat stock market behavior supports status quo. The NYSE Indicant Volume Indicator is more aggressive in its low interest assertion, while the NADAQ’s is holding steady, where stock market interest remains high.


Thu-Sep 13-Again mildly healthy volume on mild stock market bullishness supports bullish continuation.


Wed-Sep 12-Volume was up a bit on mixed stock market behavior, supporting comfort with status quo, which is bullish.


Tue-Sep 11-Again, mediocre volume suggests some uncertainty.


Mon-Sep 10-Mediocre volume on mild stock market bullishness is not encouraging to the stock market bull.


Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

ETF Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.


The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 21-ETF’s. Those enjoying hold signals are up by an average of 6.4% since their buy signals an average of 13.4-weeks ago, annualizing at 25.0%.


The NTI is avoiding 11-ETFs. They are down by an average of 6.7% since their sell signals 8.3-weeks ago.


Near-term ETF Cycle Analyses

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 0

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 2


Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 0 

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 0


Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 11

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 1


Near-term Advantage: Aug 14, 2018-Near-term stock market bull.


ETF Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.


The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 22-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 40.8% since their buy signals an average of 78.4-weeks ago, annualizing at 27.0%.


The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 10-ETFs. They are down by an average of 14.1% since their sell signals an average of 20.4-weeks ago.


Quick-term ETF Cycle Analyses  

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 0

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 3


Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 0

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 1


Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 19

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 4    


Quick-term Advantage: Quick-term stock market bull, effective May 11, 2018.


Reverse Tangential Projections       

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections.


Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.


Other links:     

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the S&P500 Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Understanding Content on the Short-term Indicant Charts


Indicant Conclusion

As expected, the stock market bullishness persisted under significant pressures to be bearish, ranging from the mid-term elections and related potential to Trump’s impeachment. Vector pressure increased accelerated its drift to bearish direction, adding additional technical bearish potential. However, that potential is minimal, as vector pressure is in bullish domains, where the bear has difficulty in unleashing its terror. Adding yet more of a threat to the stock market bull is the heart and soul of bearish seasonality.


Yet, despite all of that, the stock market bull is solid with Red Bull and Blue Bull unanimity. The stock market bear has little influence with those bullish configurations.


Click this sentence to keep up with the Short-term Indicant.


Click this sentence to maintain stock market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.


Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.


Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.



To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc., click the following hyperlink: 


Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the website, so you can always find your way back.


Stop Loss Management

This was moved to the bottom of this report as its content rarely changes. You will be notified when stop losses should be tightened or loosened.


The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized capital gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the greater value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences.


For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.


Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying. Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.


For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.


If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.


Happy Investing,





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