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Sep 5, 2021 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 09, Issue 1 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

 

The Stock Market Bull Paused in The Heart and Soul of Bearish Seasonality

History has not repeated itself for the past several years with several stock market bull cycles plowing through normal periods of bearish cycles. For example, the stock market bull was not been deterred by the normal presidential post-election year

 

The stock market is indeed among the most interesting bullish cycles on record. The ten major indices were down by an average of 0.3% last week. One half were up and the other half was down. The most bullish index was the NASDAQ-(Chart). It was up 1.5%. The most bearish was the Dow Transports(Chart). It was down 1.03%.  

 

During a time spanning over 150-years, the presidential post-election year was the most bearish. Since Regan 1981, the presidential post-election year’s prior stock market bearishness has not been bearish. Regan’s supply side economics was encouraging to the stock market bull. That is understandable.

 

Fast forward to Biden’s presidential post-election year. Biden has increased regulation, adding to the producer costs. The DJIA has skyrocketed while the Producer Price Index skyrocketed. Click this sentence to see the Producer Price Index. As you can see, it is approaching where it was ahead of 2007/8. Much of the increase in the Producer Price Index relates to two broad phenomena. Oil is up nearly 100% since Biden’s election. He shutdown the Keystone Pipeline. Supply and demand work. Demand for oil did not decrease with the supply decreasing under Biden’s decision to stop the pipeline.

 

Secondly, COVID-19 created supply disruptions throughout the supply chain. Most product supply is transported across the country and that requires fuel. Those transportation costs are increasing.

 

Despite all of that the stock market bull has skyrocketed and now interesting with the heart and soul of bearish seasonality and during a presidential post-election year, which has a long history of being bearish despite bullish since Regan.

 

Biden’s approval rating continues to drop. The question is, why is it not 100% disapproval. Those that do approve are still around 40%. As stated many times in this report, Biden is not at fault. He is simply a sick man. The problem with collapsing societies has always been due to the masses that support the witch-doctor industry; mainly politicians.

 

Despite the arrival of the heart and soul of bearish seasonality, the stock market bull remains intact.

 

Mid-term Indicant Status of the Major Indices

The major stock market indices can be accessed by clicking this sentence.

Click this sentence to review how to understand the below terms.

 

Click this sentence to understand the details on the charts.

 

Mid-term Indicant Red Bulls-Click for Explanation1): 10-Red Bulls, 0-Non-Red Bulls

Comment: All ten major indices remain as Red Bulls, which is highly desired. The ten Red Bulls are averaging 16.2% above the bullish red curve. Red Bulls cannot endure bear signals. With that, the stock market can drop approximately by 16.2% before enduring bear signals. The ten major indices are up an average of 45.8% since their bull signals an average of 55.5-weeks ago. The two oldest bulls, NASDAQ-(Chart)  and NASDAQ100-(Chart), are over a year old and up an average of 83.8%.

 

Mid-term Indicant Blue Bulls-Click for Explanation2): 8-Blue Bulls, 2-Non-Blue Bull

            Comment: Last week’s non Blue Bull was the Dow Transports-(Chart), remaining as a non Blue Bull. The S&P600-(Chart) joined the DJT this past week in losing Blue Bull status. e eight major indices are above Blue by an average of 3.3%. The two non-Blue Bulls are below Blue by 3.9%.

 

Mid-term Indicant Yellow Bears-Click for Explanation3): 0-Yellow Bears, 10-Non-Yellow Bears

              Comment: All major indices are above Yellow by an average of 50.7%. The absence of Yellow Bears strongly suggest economic depression is not possible now. Stock market dynamics are never wrong in predicting that, but sometimes predicts a non-existing recession. Recession or not, the Indicant’s focus is to avoid bears. It will not wait for a 50.7% drop before signaling bear. Rest assured a future Yellow Bear lurks, but not along the mid-term horizon at this time.

 

Mid-term Indicant Green Bears-Click for Explanation4): 0-Green Bears, 10-Non-Green Bears

              Comment: Non-existing green bears are non-bearish. The ten major indices are above green by 10.1%. Green is where a bear is typically signaled, but it rises quickly, making it unlikely a bear signal would be triggered after a 10.1% stock market drop. As earlier stated, Red Bulls are immune to bear signals. Green prices rose faster than market prices the past six weeks. With that, the next bear signal will not occur until prices fall below Red.

 

Mid-term Indicant Red to Green Position5): 1-Red Higher than Green; 9-Greens Higher Than Red

              Comment: The lone major red curve, belonging to the DJU-(Chart), is above the green curve by 3.2%. Each Green crossing above Red evinces overbought market conditions. The NASDAQ100’s-(Chart) green curve climbed above Red on weekending Oct 10, 2020 and the NASDAQ’s-(Chart) did the same on Oct 23, 2020 for the start of a new cycle of an over-bought stock market. Those two indices remain with Green higher than Red. The concern is no longer a minor one. Those two indices had been the least bullish since their green curves crossing above their red curves until March 2021 when those two indices revived their strong bullish tendencies. They have already honored the normal bearishness that follows such crossings and can still be bullish until the other indices are inflicted with this overbought attribute. Right now, a majority of nine endure this overbought configuration and a bit of a concern, but please read on.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Position6): 10-bullish domains, 0-bearish domains

              Comment: All ten force vectors inside bullish domains supports the stock market bull, contrasting with configurations eight weeks ago when all ten were inside bullish domains.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Relative to Vector Pressure7): 7-above pressure, 3-below pressure

              Comment: The stock market bull finds this attribute comforting with the majority of force above pressure.

           

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Position8): 9-bullish domains, 1-bearish domains

              Comment: A majority support supports the stock market bull. Last week’s problems are subsiding a bit.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Direction9): 7-bullishly directed, 3-bearishly directed

              Comment: Force vector behavior shifted back into favoring the stock market bull two weeks ago and continues supporting the stock market bull.

 

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Direction10): 6-bullishly directed, 4-bearishly directed

            Comment: This remains supportive of the stock market bull, but decreasingly so. This remains a bit threatening to the stock market bull.

 

Click this sentence to review how to understand the above terms.

Click this sentence to understand how to read the charts.

 

Mid-term Indicant Configured Condition of Major Indices: Blue and Red Bulls continue dominating and as long as that remains in effect the stock market bull cannot be defeated by the stock market bear. However, Blue Bulls are diminishing in number and other shorter cycle attributes are diminishing their support of the stock market bull, but ever so slightly.

 

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Last Five Years

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows in this section. It highlights historical performance since 2002. Simply scroll down the webpage to see graphical and detail content of this section. The below describes the same for the past five years. If a particular year interest you, click this sentence, which will show you all of the prior weekly reports dating back to 2002 along with Indicant performance levels at the time of those reports. From there, you can click the year of interest and then to the specific time-period you are interested in. Please note that after the Weekly Stock Market Report, dated Aug 12, 2018, ten years of history was replaced with five years of history. Again, historical weekly reports, dating to 2002 remain available on the website. As 2008’s great bear market fades beyond the 10th anniversary, just as the NASDAQ’s 2002 drop of 89% was also no longer reported in 2012, it is no longer necessary to report 2008 here. These historical references, however, do remain on the website. The website has stock market history dating back to 1900.

 

The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals this weekend. Clicking this sentence is where the Mid-term Indicant buy and sell signals are displayed.  

 

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 277 of the 315-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. Stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 326.5% that annualizes to 110.7%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 277-stocks and funds for an average of 153.3-weeks. There have been 46-buy signals for stocks and funds so far, this year. Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant, hold signals are 87.9% in the market.

 

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 38-stocks and funds of 315-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 35.1% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 170.6-weeks ago. There have been 14-sell signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.  Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant, avoid signals are 12.1% out of the market.

 

One year ago, on Sep 4, 2020, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 223-stocks and funds of the 316-tracked for an average of 155.3-weeks. They were up by an average of 297.5%, annualizing at 99.7%. There were 85-avoided stocks and funds at this time last year. They were down by an average of 31.5% since their sell signals an average of 123.7-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and no sell signals at this time of year in 2020.  There had been 208-buy signals and 235-sell signals throughout the year on this weekend in 2020. Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant, holds were 72.9% in the market and avoids were 27.1% out of the market, as the COVID-19-stock market bear continued being obliterated by the stock market bull.

 

Two years ago, on Sep 6, 2019, the Mid-term Indicant was holding 234-stocks and funds of the 321-tracked for an average of 258.2-weeks. They were up by an average of 241.2% (annualized at 48.6%). There were 85-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down by an average of 28.1% since their respective sell signals an average of 96.3-weeks earlier, one year ago. There were two buy signals and no sell signals for the year through this weekend in 2019. Based on the number of stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant, holds were 73.5% in the market and avoids were 28.1% out of the market.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 252-stocks and funds on Sep 7, 2018. They were up 226.2% since their buy signals an average of 232.5-weeks earlier, annualizing at 50.6%. There were 64-avoided stocks and funds on this weekend since their sell signals an average of 80.7-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and one sell signal on this weekend in 2018. There had been 64-buy signals and 82-sell signals in 2018 through this weekend of that year. Hold signals were 78.5% in the market and avoid signals were 21.5% out of the market at this time of year in 2018.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 259-stocks and funds of the 321-tracked on Sep 1, 2017. They were up by an average of 187.1%, annualizing at 43.4% since their respective buy signals an average of 224.1-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 57-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an

average of 18.6% since their respective sell signals an average of 101.1-weeks earlier. There were two buy signals and three sell signals on this weekend in 2017. There had been a total of 57-buy signals 48-sell signals through this weekend in 2017. Hold signals were 81.3% in the market and avoid signals were 18.7% out of the market.

 

The above performance reflects status at the time of the updates. Abandoned securities have no impact to the above performance statistics and the historical report card. They always represent status at the time of that status and never changes. When securities become NLT (no longer traded), their performance levels are excluded from the report card at the time they become NLT. There are no retroactive adjustments. The number of stocks and funds tracked from week to week may differ because they are no longer traded or listed on major stock exchanges.     

 

The Indicant started retaining records of abandoned stocks and funds in 2012. There are advantages of retaining records by expressing the consequences of an organization employing dilettante management and related corporate leeching. All organizations eventually expire. The primary causes of such expirations are corporate leeching, stupidity, and arrogance (without cause). {Note: the same is true of governments that fall prey to either economic leeching (FDR) and/or excessive egomaniacal behavior by its leaders (Hitler)}. Click here to see abandoned securities.

 

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals

Signaling buy and sell has been minimal for several months due to a very strong bull cycle beginning in April 2020. That bull cycle was with large breadth. The few bottom dwellers are not yet configuring with bullish attributes. Bottom dweller buy signals have been muffled as the stock market bull has lost momentum.

 

Clicking this sentence will take you to this weekend’s Mid-term Indicant buy/sell signals.

 

The Short-term Indicant signals buy and sell for ETF’s, almost daily, provided the ETF’s enjoy a buy signal or endure a sell signal. They are not included in the Mid-term Indicant summaries. These short-term models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts, while the Mid-term Indicant includes fundamentals and longer-term technical data to reject short-term trader nervousness. The Daily Stock Market Report reports status for the short-term model.

 

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

 

Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for several years, do not fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it does. The markets, both free and controlled, are not constant. The control freaks in political power now have 100% potential to create economic and social calamity with their desired end result of a police state. That would give them absolute power. That is never good for anyone but them.

 

Although increasing above Obama economic sluggishness, the reported CPI remains relatively healthy, despite recent notable inflation. The PPI remains non-threatening to the stock market bull. A democratic controlled congress with a lunatic democratic president adds profound inflationary threats. Despite the eventuality of some factors, inflation remains tame for the time being, as it is being reported, but starting to accelerate as of weekending Apr 17, 2021. The annual inflation rate is being reported at 5.4% to date this year. Oil prices are up 74.5% from this time one year ago. Oil is up $33.50/BBL (+93.0%) since Biden’s so-called election. Oil was up last week with potential new threats in the Middle East.

 

The Prime Rate, Discount Rate, and Effective Rate decreased by 100-basis points over a year ago on Mar 20, 2020, following a 50-basis point cut on weekending Mar 6, 2020.  That followed less aggressive decreases on Aug 2, 2019, Sep 19, 2019, and Nov 2, 2019. These less aggressive decreases were miniscule to the increases on Dec 23, 2016, Mar 17, 2017, Jun 15, 2017, Dec 15, 2017, Mar 23, 2018, Jun 15, 2018, Sep 30, 2018, and Dec 21, 2018. High unemployment, germ warfare from China, overstepping U.S. communistic politicians, and self-proclaimed elites continue confronting the stock market bull. So far, the markets are not believing these threats are sustainable for at least the next nine-months. The Federal Reserve Board announced in early 2021 they will be reactive to economic conditions, as opposed to attempting to forecast them. That is okay because the Fed has never been good at forecasting. They eat well regardless of their performance.

 

The 3-Month T-Bill fell to Yellow Bear status on weekending Jul 19, 2019.  After falling deeper into the domain of the Yellow Bear, it started a rebound attempt on weekending Jan 10, 2020, but fell deeper into the domain of the Yellow Bear on weekending Mar 6, 2020, under the influence of China’s germ warfare, called Covid-19, and rapidly falling even more after that and below zero on weekending Mar 19, 2020, with a small bounce north of zero on weekending Apr 3, 2020. Since then, it remains near zero. However, it finally climbed out of that status on weekending Feb 12, 2021, while still in bottom-feeding mode. That is about to change. If it does not, inflation will occur. The charts show some small upward movements at the bottom. The stock market right now favors inflation over rising interest rates. Inflation is okay with the stock market bull for a period. So far, all is okay.

           

The Euro lost Red Bull status on weekending Jul 31, 2021, after regaining it on weekending Jun 18, 2020. It is approaching Yellow Bear status again, but in a non-threatening way. The 2024-mean forecast is at $1.18 with more aggressive intrinsic modeling, projecting $0.79 to $0.80.

 

The Canadian dollar again bounced above Yellow (weakening) during the week of July 17, 2021. That is the first bounce above Yellow since Sep 21, 2020. Its 2024-mean forecast is $1.30CA with projected polynomials forecasting much weaker values ranging from $2.18CA to $2.20CA.

 

The Japanese Yen discontinued its steady three-year long downward drift (strengthening) from 2018 through 2020. It continues mild weakening since crossing above Red on Apr 2, 2021. Its statistical mean forecast is at 108-yen/dollar by Dec 2024 while the aggressive polynomials are projecting a range of 160-164-Yen/U.S. dollar. It also strengthened during the week of the U.S. presidential election but has been holding above Red the past few weeks (weakening).

 

The British Pound enjoyed Red Bull status on the week of August 3, 2020, for the first time in over a year. It was not comfortable there and fell below Red on Sep 10, 2020, but regained Red Bull status on Nov 20, 2020. It now configures with overcoming repeating cycles of weakening with Red Bull attributes. They are no longer strong, but yet persistent. Its statistical mean forecast is at $1.33 with more aggressive polynomials, projecting around $0.76-$0.81 by Dec 2024. Since its mid-June 2016 BREXIT vote, it drifted bearishly, which has been its direction since its peak in 2008. It also strengthened during the week of the 2020 U.S. election and continues to do so and dynamically so. The U.S. is moving toward the land of yellow teeth and perhaps even worse.

 

The Bitcoin skyrocketed during the week of Nov 30, 2020 and again during the weeks of Dec 13, 2020 and Dec 20, 2020 and again in early Feb 2021. After climbing to over $60,000 on Mar 11, 2021, it is at $49548 this past week.

                       

Gold endured Yellow Bear status on weekending Apr 2, 2021 and rejected that on weekending Apr 23, 2021. It is again weakening and approaching Yellow Bear status. The Bitcoin is now better reflecting the potential for inflation than gold. It achieved an all-time high in early August 2020. It has been dropping steadily since then but still arguing against becoming a Yellow Bear. The Dec 2024-mean forecast is $1,800/oz. while the more aggressive polynomials are projecting a Dec 2024 value approximating $922-$1,010/oz. You can keep up with an approximation of this on the Indicant Daily Stock Market Report by tracking ETF#11-GLD.

 

Oil regained Red Bull status on weekending Dec 31, 2020, after moving above the domain of the Yellow Bear on weekending Jun 19, 2020. It had been bouncy around $40/bbl for several weeks but became highly bullish since Biden’s so-called election. The Dec 2024-intrinsic and aggressive polynomial forecast remains below zero with the statistical mean forecast of $50/bbl. Saudi Royalty is very pleased with their new low IQ puppets in D.C. Oil is up 89.0% since Biden’s so-called election. It currently is stabilizing with some bearish pestering and most likely a few calls were made to the King, requesting some relief.

 

The CRB Bridge Futures regained Red Bull status on weekending Dec 31, 2020, after abandoning Yellow Bear status on the week of August 3, 2020. It is trying to contribute to inflation with it regaining Red Bull status on weekending Feb 26, 2021. It also strengthened during the week of the U.S. election and has continued doing so with no sign of any countermeasures from the source of the inflationary problem; the democratic party, news media, and the lunatic masses in their deep state of tabula rasa. It continues being bullishness.

 

Mortgage rates regained Red Bull status on weekending Mar 12, 2021 after falling into Yellow Bear status on weekending Apr 12, 2019.  They are no longer Yellow Bears and showing some signs of passing a bottom. This remains a great time to finance real estate for those willing to incur debt during uncertainties from the Coronavirus and the more damaging sociopathic politicians.

 

The consumer price index and producer price index are computing without the combined absolute value of threatening interest rates and inflation or deflation of 8%. Considerations of deflationary threats are not out of line, though. Fortunately, there are millions around the world willing to work and be consumptive. With that, the strong may offset the weak. The coronavirus had been disrupting that line of thinking but nearing its disruptive end. A new problem is the political climate, which always has the potential to be massively disruptive to economic conditions. Politicians have a long history of being economically destructive and completely absent of being constructive.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and no new bear signals this week for the major indices along the mid-term cycle.

 

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling bull for all ten major indices. The ten bulls are up by an average of 45.8% since their bull signals an average of 55.5-weeks ago and annualizing at 43.1%. The Mid-term Indicant regained bullish unanimity along the Mid-term Indicant cycle on weekending Oct 9, 2020, and lost it again on weekending Dec 25, 2020, and regained that highly desired configuration on Feb 5, 2021, and then lost it again on weekending Feb 26, 2021. It again configured with bullish unanimity on weekending Mar 26, 2021.

 

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $79.8-million. That beats buy and hold performance of $5.3-million on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $4.87-million. That beats buy and hold’s $2.67-million on a Jan 6, 1950 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $3.77-million. That beats buy and hold’s $1.54-million on a Jan 29, 1971 $10,000 investment.  The MTI-Dow Transports is at $43.68-million. That is better than buy and hold $1.06-million since a $10,000 investment on Oct 19, 1928. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1,504.5%, 182.3%, 245.5%, and 4,135.5%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

 

There are two reasons why the Dow Transport index is included in the above summary. It is used by the Dow Theory Forecast, which has merit, albeit slowly. The second reason is the statistical friendliness and its near-perfect sinusoidal waves. It tends to stay committed to its underlying cycle of bullishness or bearishness more than other indices.

 

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals as buy and hold and the Indicant moves at the same magnitude. The Indicant’s advantage only occurs during bear signals as the cash holds constant, while the stock market dives. It sometimes takes a week or two for the statistics to settle.

 

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks  

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history. Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

 

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 99.9% since then. Although this is classically presidential post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy and hold during 2009, 2013, and 2017, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation, for the most part, in those three presidential post-election years. Interest rates fell to historical lows in the 2008/9 recession and have persisted since then and thus giving rise to equity attractiveness to investors. Recent elections are highlighting left leaning political movements. The return of politburo wannabes in congress will offer this fund and others like it, profound growth opportunities at some future point, but not right now, even with the coronavirus inflicting damage to the economy and the corrupt election of the democratic (communist) party. Keep in mind, politburos confiscate. They are already confiscating your freedom. Conditions are mounting favoring strong profit potential in this economic climate, despite the newly forming political threat by the communistic movement now underway with the guise of climate change, racism, etc. Sociopathic political leadership is more common than not throughout recorded history. So far, the presidential post-election year of 2021 continues arguing against historical trends of stock market bearishness. Low interest rates continue being credited with this.

 

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

 

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

 

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

 

The Dow is up 1,121.9%, annualized at 37.5%, since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,557-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

 

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

 

The next section is the last daily stock market report for this past week

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Archives

{Repeated here are from the last trading day’s daily stock market report from the previous week. Click this link to see all the daily reports from the last 12-months. Retaining here in the weekly report allows for longer retention periods of the daily stock market reports that describe the short-term cycle at the end of each week}.

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Summary

Fri-Sep 3-The stock market bull remains intact, despite some recent nervousness. Bull and hold attributes strengthened the past week. Short-term attributes resumed support for the stock market bull. The stock market bull may seem irrational at this point, but the primary driver to it is the remaining low interest rates. The stock market bull will perish someday either due increasing interest rates or inflation. Rising interest rates are usually more efficient in unleashing a death blow to stock market bulls while inflation kills it more slowly. Both can result in stock market bears of over fifty percent. Inflation driven ones can span several years, while interest rate driven bears is much more quickly.

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

 

Index Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

Number of Near-term Bulls: 11 of 12

Duration of Near-term Bulls: 17.2-wks-avg.

Near-term Bull Performance: 10.6%; Annualized Performance: 32.0%

Number of Near-term Bears: 1 of 12

Average Duration of Near-term Bears: 10.0-wks. avg.

Near-term Bears Average Performance: +6.3% 

Near-term Performance Advantage: Nov 5, 2020-Stock Market Bull

           

Near-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses  

Near-term Indicant Non-Contrarian Configured Bullish Blue Bulls: 8 of 11 

Near-term Indicant Non-Contrarian Configured Bearish Green Bears: 0 of 11

 

Near-term Position Cyclical Advantage: Jun 25, 2021-Stock Market Bull      

 

Index Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

                                               

Number of Quick-term Bulls: 11 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term Bulls: 57.3-wks.

Quick-term Bull Performance: 45.5%; Quick-term Annualized Performance: 45.5%.

 

Number of Quick-term Bears: 1 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term Bears: 10.0-weeks-avg.

Quick-term Bear Performance: +6.3% (Contrarian VIX)

 

Quick-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 10 of 12

Configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 1 of 12

 

Quick-term Configured Advantage: Jun 30, 2020-Quick-term Advantage to Bull

                                   

Short-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses          

Non-contrarian force vectors in bullish domains: 11 of 11

Non-contrarian force vectors higher than vector pressure: 8 of 11

Non-contrarian vector pressure in bullish domains: 11 of 11

Non-contrarian bullish force vector direction: 1 of 11

Non-contrarian bullish vector pressure direction: 10 of 11

 

Short-term Advantage: Short-term Advantage: May 14, 2021 Stock Market Bull

 

Indicant Volume Indicators

Aug 27-NASDAQ volume was up last week on its bullishness, supporting the NASDAQ stock market bull, while the NYSE was above the same as the past four weeks.  Both volume indicators remain in the domain of low interest supporting stock market stability.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

ETF Near-term Report Card Summary

There were two buy signals and no sell signals along the near-term cycle.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for 26-ETF’s. Those enjoying hold signals are up by an average of 7.3% since their buy signals an average of 10.7-weeks ago, annualizing at 35.7%.

 

The NTI is avoiding four ETF’s. They are down by an average of 13.2% since their sell signals 8.3-weeks ago.

 

Near-term ETF Cycle Analyses

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 0

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 2

 

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 1

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 0

 

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue     Bulls: 21

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 0

 

Near-term Advantage: Stock Market Bull as of Jun 25, 2021

          

ETF Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant generated one buy signal and no sell signals.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for 27-ETF’s. They are up by an average of 45.6% since their buy signals an average of 51.7-weeks ago, annualizing at 45.9%.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding five-ETF’s. They are down by an average of 26.6% since their sell signals 37.2-weeks ago.

                               

Quick-term ETF Cycle Analyses  

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 0

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 2

           

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 0

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 0

           

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red      Bulls: 24

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 0

 

Quick-term Advantage: Quick-term Stock Market Bull Jun 17, 2020

 

Reverse Tangential Projections                   

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections.

           

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

Other links:

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the S&P500 Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Understanding Content on the Short-term Indicant Charts

 

Indicant Conclusion

As stated the past four weeks, “overall, the stock market bull remains intact because the stock market bear cannot maintain a majority position” in Red Bull, Blue Bull, force vector position, force vector directions, and vector pressure positions.”

 

This past week nearly all attributes increased their support for the stock market bull, contrasting with prior week’s increasing bearish support. Political lunacy can be nerve racking to the stock market despite the low interest rates.

 

Click this sentence to keep up with the Short-term Indicant.

 

Click this sentence to maintain stock market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.

 

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.

 

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

 

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

 

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc., click the following hyperlink:

 

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm 

 

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the website, so you can always find your way back.

 

Stop Loss Management

This was moved to the bottom of this report as its content rarely changes. You will be notified when stop losses should be tightened or loosened.

 

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized capital gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the greater value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences.

 

For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

 

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying. Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

 

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

 

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

 

Click this sentence to keep up with the Short-term Indicant.

 

Click this sentence to maintain stock market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.

 

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.

 

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

 

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

 

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc., click the following hyperlink:

 

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm 

 

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the website, so you can always find your way back.

 

Stop Loss Management

This was moved to the bottom of this report as its content rarely changes. You will be notified when stop losses should be tightened or loosened.

 

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized capital gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the greater value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences.

 

For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

 

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying. Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

 

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

 

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

 

Happy Investing,

 

www.indicant.net

09/05/2021

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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