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Mar 22, 2020 Indicant Weekly Stock Market Report

Volume 3, Issue 04 ISSN 1526 6516 © The Indicant Stock Market Report

                                                          

Political Deprivation and the Stock Market Reaction – Dow Heading to 15,000

Presidential candidates on the democratic party’s ticket were hard pressed to contrast their economic improvement plans to an already extraordinary health economy up to three weeks ago. Now they can claim just about any unverifiable Coronavirus countermeasure they would have implemented versus that of Trump. Their following bobbleheads will applaud and jump up and down with orangutan glee at each of their pontifications.

 

Leading democrat, Joe Biden, was critical of Trump’s banning flights from China in January. Biden’s ignorance will be hidden by the mainstream media because they are too stupid to understand their pitiful lives could be at risk in a Biden presidency. A democratic presidency and a democratic congress will drive the Dow below 10,000, just as Obama’s first two years with a democratic house and senate. Ben Bernanke helped slow the stock market bear, despite lunatics who attempt to credit Obama who was still blaming George W. Bush on the front-end of Obama term and then take credit on the tail-end from Trump’s success. Those sort of arguments, attempting to keep the cake while eating it is absolute proof of massive stupidity. If we’re stuck with Biden or Sanders, blame it on human being’s decreasing IQ’s as those two lunatics represent the reduced level of intelligence of those who will vote for them.

 

There is increasing evidence the IQ is approaching what would be moronic during the pre-Victorian era, where human IQ is believed to have peaked. Listening to any democratic presidential since the early 1950’s clearly identifies human stupidity’s rise. Newport, Oregon police department recently complained that people called 911 because they ran out of toilet paper. The case of human stupidity rests its case.

 

The Spanish flu first hit in March of 1918. It introduced mild cold-like symptoms at the outset. Its second wave hit in August 2018 and was extraordinarily deadly. Many died within hours of contracting it. The Spanish Flu lingered through the end of 1920. Let’s see how the stock market behaved during this major pandemic that inflicted 500-million people and killing tens of millions.

 

Click this sentence to see how the stock market behaved during the very deadly Spanish Flu from Mar 1918 through 1920. The stock market bull snorted proudly and loudly, despite widespread death around the world from the Spanish Flu, which started just after Bull Signal #1 you see on the chart. People continued living their lives, normally, during that time. Politicians did not tell anyone they had to stay home. Granted there were no jet engines spreading that flu around at near the speed of sound, but troops were still returning from WWI and contributed its contagion similar to that of jet engines.

 

While looking at the chart, notice what deprivation does to the capital markets. Just as the Spanish Flu was losing it punch, politicians decided people should not drink alcohol. They passed prohibition laws. The stock market bear unleased its fury on investors. The correlation between political stupidity and the stock market bear is inarguable. Any depravity law is an unofficial, but more effective than an official law, assignment to the mafia for distribution. Outlaw anything. Do not despair, the mafia will get it to you. Doing business with the mafia is not without additional risk, but they will indeed satisfy whatever thirst you have when your moronic politicians outlaw anything. Politicians think they have power but reality forces repeatedly demonstrate their powerlessness.

 

As you can see from the 1917-1921-Dow Chart, prohibition shoved the Dow down by about 50% in short order. It peaked at just above 120 in late 1919 during the wrath of the Spanish Flu and declined to just over 60 in late 1921 during deprivation by politicians. Click this sentence to see the current Dow chart. Notice force vectors and vector pressure. They are very bearish. Now click on the 1917-1921-Dow Chart. Notice both force and pressure climbed into bullish domains triggering Bull Signal #05, which turned out to be false one as Bear Signal #06 quickly followed. However, Bull Signal #07 quickly followed that leading into the roaring 20’s. Just for fun, look at the 1921-1925 Chart.

 

A repeat in history would have the Dow back to above 30,000 by 2025 following a dip below 15,000 before the end of this year or in 2021. However, that will not happen with democratic party’s political control over the legislative and executive branches of government. The democratic party are purely communistic. Not only is there no bull market, there is no market at all with communistic rule. American society would continue its dark ages movement that began last week in California with everyone dutifully staying at home, while their dictator can easily access anything he desires without penalty. Again, if history repeats the Dow is heading to below 15,000. That is another near 25% drop from prevailing levels. Trump’s reelection, coupled with an eradication of the coronavirus should yield at Dow greater than 30,000 by 2022/24.

 

Mid-term Indicant Status of the Major Indices

The major stock market indices can be accessed by clicking this sentence.

Click this sentence to review how to understand the below terms.

 

Click this sentence to understand the details on the charts.

 

Mid-term Indicant Red Bulls-Click for Explanation1): 0-Red Bull, 10-Non-Red Bulls

Comment: Last week’s lone Red Bull, NASDAQ100-(Chart), lost it immunity from the stock market bear’s infliction. Now all major indices are below Red by an average of 27.7%. Non-bullish unanimity is now prevalent along the Mid-term cycle. 

 

Mid-term Indicant Blue Bulls- Click for Explanation2): 0-Blue Bulls, 10-Non-Blue Bulls

            Comment: The NASDAQ100-(Chart) lost Blue Bull status last week. All ten major indices are below blue by an average of 25.3%.

 

Mid-term Indicant Yellow Bears-Click for Explanation3): 8-Yellow Bears, 2-Non-Yellow Bears

              Comment: The two non-Yellow Bears are the NASDAQ-(Chart) and NASDAQ100-(Chart). They are above Yellow by 8.7%. The remaining eight major indices are below yellow by 16.2%. Those desiring a stock market bull do not want the NASDAQ and NASDAQ100 falling to Yellow Bear status.

 

Mid-term Indicant Green Bears-Click for Explanation4): 10-Green Bears, 0-Non-Green Bears

              Comment: The ten major indices are below Green by an average of 24.6%. There is nothing left of the prior stock market bull.

 

Mid-term Indicant Red to Green Position5): 10-Reds Higher than Green; 0-Green Higher Than Red

              Comment: The ten major red curves are above the green curve by an average of 3.6%. As stated, “the past four weeks, the increasing probability of an overheated bull market manifested to 100% probability for seven of the major indices (four) weeks ago. They did not actually overheat. Blame the Coronavirus and the democratic party.”

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Position6): 0-bullish domains, 10-bearish domains

              Comment: This attribute must reverse back on bullish domains before the stock market bull returns to dominance.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Relative to Vector Pressure7): 0-above pressure, 10-below pressure

              Comment: As stated the past four weeks, “this attribute remains threatening due to the politburo wannabes continuing disdain for U.S. voters and the Coronavirus. All ten below pressure is of major concern for those desiring a stock market bull.”

 

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Position8): 0-bullish domains, 10-bearish domains

              Comment: This must reverse back into bullish domains. Until that happens, the stock market bear holds an advantage.

 

Mid-term Indicant Force Vector Direction9): 0-bullishly directed, 10-bearishly directed

              Comment: This is the eighth consecutive week of enduring bearishly directed force vectors. As stated the past three weeks, “their movement has been supporting stock market non-bullishness and now supporting the stock market bear.”

 

Mid-term Indicant Vector Pressure Direction10): 0-bullishly directed, 10-bearishly directed

            Comment: As stated the past three weeks, “this is now in full support of the stock market bear.”

 

Click this sentence to review how to understand the above terms.

Click this sentence to understand how to read the charts.

 

Mid-term Indicant Configured Condition of Major Indices: As stated the past two weeks, “the Mid-term Indicant attributes are no longer supportive of the stock market bull, and with increasing support for the stock market bear.”

 

Weekly Buy/Sell Summary – Stocks and Funds – Last Five Years

Click this sentence for a graphical summary of what follows in this section. It highlights historical performance since 2002. Simply scroll down the webpage to see graphical and detail content of this section. The below describes the same for the past five years. If a particular year interest you, click this sentence, which will show you all of the prior weekly reports dating back to 2002 along with Indicant performance levels at the time of those reports. From there, you can click the year of interest and then to the specific time-period you are interested in. Please note that after the Weekly Stock Market Report, dated Aug 12, 2018, ten years of history was replaced with five years of history. Again, historical weekly reports, dating to 2002 remain available on the website. As 2008’s great bear market fades beyond the 10th anniversary, just as the NASDAQ’s 2002 drop of 89% was also no longer reported in 2012, it is no longer necessary to report 2008 here. These historical references, however, do remain on the website. Of course, the website has stock market history dating back to 1900.

 

The Mid-term Indicant generated no buy signals and 76-sell signals this weekend. Clicking this sentence is where the Mid-term Indicant buy and sell signals are displayed.  

 

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling hold for 82 of the 321-stocks and funds tracked by the Indicant. Stocks and funds with hold signals are up an average of 377.7% that annualizes to 48.5%. The Mid-term Indicant has been signaling hold for these 82-stocks and funds for an average of 405.1-weeks. There have been six buy signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.

 

The Mid-term Indicant is avoiding 158-stocks and funds of 321-tracked by the Indicant. The avoided stocks and funds are down an average of 36.4% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 60.2-weeks ago. There have been 181-sell signals for stocks and funds so far, this year.

 

One year ago, on Mar 22, 2019 the Mid-term Indicant was holding 190-stocks and funds of the 321-tracked for an average of 263.1-weeks. They were up by an average of 240.8% (annualized at 47.6%). There were 128-avoided stocks and funds at that time. The avoided stocks and funds were down by an average of 17.1% since their respective sell signals an average of 79.3-weeks earlier, one year ago. There were no buy signal and three sell signals on this weekend in 2019. There had been 25-buy signal and eleven sell signals for the year through this weekend in 2019.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 260-stocks on Mar 23, 2018. They were up 200.2% since their buy signals an average of 249.2-weeks earlier, annualizing at 41.8%. There were 60-avoided stocks on this weekend since their sell signals an average of 90.2-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and five sell signals on this weekend in 2018. There had been 17-buy signals and 32-sell signals in 2018 through this weekend of that year.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 260-stocks and funds of the 302-tracked on Mar 24, 2017. They were up by an average of 168.8%, annualizing at 43.7%, since their respective buy signals an average of 200.9-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 41-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 21.3% since their respective sell signals an average of 99.5-weeks earlier. There were no buy signals and one sell signal on this weekend in 2017. There had been 17-year-to-date buy signals and six sell signals through this weekend in 2017. This year was profoundly bullish, following the fake stock market bear on election night in 2016. Wall Street liberals are real and they errantly thought the world was ending on Trump’s election. A few days after the 2016 presidential election and Trump’s victory, the stock market bull stampeded with several record setting events. The number of “real investors” wiped out the Wall Street liberals as Trumponomics is very real, as opposed to the phoniness of the Wall street liberals and their DC brethren.

 

The Mid-term Indicant was signaling hold for 203-stocks and funds of the 338-tracked on Mar 18, 2016. They were up by an average of 154.4%, annualizing at 37.9%, since their respective buy signals an average of 212.0-weeks earlier. The Mid-term Indicant was avoiding 127-stocks and funds at that time. They were down an average of 18.1% since their respective sell signals an average of 62.7-weeks earlier. There were two buy signals and no sell signals on this weekend in 2016. There had been a total of 23-buy signals and 58-sell signals through this weekend in 2016. The stock market endured some bearish cycles in this year as Hillary Clinton led in the polls. Once she lost, the stock market bull stampeded to the north with phenomenal ferocity.

 

The above performance reflects status at the time of the updates. Abandoned securities have no impact to the above performance statistics and the historical report card. They always represent status at the time of that status and never changes. When securities become NLT (no longer traded), their performance levels are excluded from the report card at the time they become NLT. There are no retroactive adjustments. The number of stocks and funds tracked from week to week may differ because they are no longer traded or listed on major stock exchanges.     

 

The Indicant started retaining records of abandoned stocks and funds in 2012. There are advantages of retaining records by expressing the consequences of an organization employing dilettante management and related corporate leeching. All organizations eventually expire. The primary causes of such expirations are corporate leeching, stupidity, and arrogance (without cause). {Note: the same is true of governments that fall prey to either economic leeching (FDR) and/or excessive egomaniacal behavior by its leaders (Hitler)}. Click here to see abandoned securities.

 

Comments about Mid-term Indicant Buy and Sell Signals

Buying exceeded selling in 2019. Currently, there is little reason to expect more buying on the near-term horizon. Vector pressure is too deep inside bearish domains at this point. However, once they reverse, powerful wealth building opportunities will manifest.

 

Clicking this sentence will take you to this weekend’s Mid-term Indicant buy/sell signals.

 

The Short-term Indicant signals buy and sell for ETF’s, almost daily, provided the ETF’s enjoy a buy signal or endure a sell signal. They are not included in the Mid-term Indicant summaries. These short-term models attempt participation in significant bullish spurts, while the Mid-term Indicant includes fundamentals and longer-term technical data to reject short-term trader nervousness. The Daily Stock Market Report reports status for the short-term model.

 

Economic Conditions – Inflation, Currency, Interest Rates

Click the above heading for a summary of hard economic indicators.

 

Although this paragraph has remained unchanged for several years, do not fall asleep. It will change. It will be significant and dramatic when it does. The markets, both free and controlled, are not constant. A massive bear market, depending on the magnitude of combined interest rates and inflation, will eventually occur. The more politicians attempt to generate the markets as a constant, the less constant they become. The combined absolute value of interest rates, inflation/deflation remain less than 8.0% and thus no related threat of depressed economic behavior exists now. That is a temporary condition. Recent promotions of communism, if successful, will result in zero for all capital stocks. The DNC’s and followers in the pontificating press are doing their best using the coronavirus to accelerate that effort.

 

Although increasing above the norms of Obama economic sluggishness, the reported CPI remains relatively healthy, while the PPI remains non-threatening. As stated, several times in this report, Trumponomics will be inflationary and heightened even more with money supply increasing far above earned money. Despite that eventuality, inflation remains tame for the time being. The annual inflation rate is being reported at only 2.3% to date this year. Oil prices are down 55.7% from this time one year ago.

 

The Prime Rate, Discount Rate, and Effective Rate decreased by 100-basis points on Mar 20, 2020, following a 50-basis point cut on weekending Mar 6, 2020.  That follows less aggressive decreases on Aug 2, 2019, Sep 19, 2019, and Nov 2, 2019. These less aggressive decreases are miniscule to the increases on Dec 23, 2016, Mar 17, 2017, Jun 15, 2017, Dec 15, 2017, Mar 23, 2018, Jun 15, 2018, Sep 30, 2018, and Dec 21, 2018. High unemployment and semi-germ warfare are confronting the stock market bull.

 

The 3-Month T-Bill fell to Yellow Bear status on weekending Jul 19, 2019.  After falling deeper into the domain of the Yellow Bear, it started a rebound attempt on weekending Jan 10, 2020, but fell deeper into the domain of the Yellow Bear on weekending Mar 6, 2020 and rapidly falling even more since then and now below zero.

                                                                                

The Euro escaped Yellow Bear status on week-ending Jan 10, 2020, but fell back into the domain of the Yellow Bear on weekending Feb 14, 2020 and barely remaining there, with zero travel allowances to and from Europe. The 2020-mean forecast is at $1.17 with more aggressive intrinsic modeling, projecting $0.90 to $0.91. The absence of variation in its steady decline is indeed impressive.

 

The Canadian dollar climbed above Red (weakening) on weekending Mar 13, 2020 after climbing above Yellow (weakening) on weekending Aug 23, 2019. It is now weakening severely due to crashing oil prices. Its 2020-mean forecast is $1.32CA with projected polynomials forecasting much weaker values ranging from $1.61CA to $1.69CA.

 

The Japanese Yen continues in a steady downward drift (strengthening), falling barely into the domain of the Yellow Bear (stronger). Its statistical mean forecast is at 110-yen/dollar by 2020 while the aggressive polynomials are projecting a range of 130-142-Yen/U.S. dollar. Its flatness the past three years is unusual. That helps international stabilization, which is always welcome by the stock market bull. It also strengthened with the mild rate reduction by the U.S. Fed on weekending Aug 2, 2019, but with limited impact on the Sep 19, 2019 rate reduction.

 

British Pound’s 2020 statistical mean forecast is at $1.28 with more aggressive polynomials, projecting around $1.07-$1.13 by Dec 31, 2020. Since its mid-June 2016 BREXIT vote, it drifted, bearishly. It climbed above Yellow Bear status on weekending Oct 18, 2019 and above Red on weekending, Dec 5, 2019, and again falling below Red on weekending Feb 7, 2020. After resting in the zone of neutrality, it fell into the domain of the Yellow Bear on weekending Mar 13, 2020 and now falling deeper into the domain of the Yellow Bear.

 

The Bitcoin lost Red Bull status on weekending Feb 20, 2020, after regaining Red Bull status on weekending Feb 13, 2020 and falling into the domain of the Yellow Bear on weekending Mar 13, 2020. It rebounded slightly last week, but remains a Yellow Bear.

                       

Gold climbed sharply above Red on weekending Jun 21, 2019.  After a long rest, it remains a Red Bull, but falling sharply the past two weeks. Falling oil and commodity prices are the new enemy of gold’s price. In other words, deflation is an evolving concern along the shorter-term horizon. The 2020-mean forecast is $1,301/oz. while the more aggressive polynomials are projecting a 2020 value approximating $980-$1,150/oz. You can keep up with an approximation of this on the Indicant Daily Stock Market Report by tracking ETF#11-GLD.

 

Oil fell into Yellow Bear status on Feb 6, 2020. It continues falling deeper into the domain of the Yellow Bear. Its bearishness is congruent to stock market bearishness. The 2020-intrinsic and aggressive polynomial forecast ranges from $13 to $18. That is correct, but like all forecast, it is erroneous. The 2020-statistical mean forecast is at $52/bbl. This forecast continues to avoid the decline it endured from 2013 through early 2018. Supply capacity, exceeding demand, is the prevailing price depressant.

 

The CRB Bridge Futures escaped Yellow Bear status on weekending Apr 13, 2019 after falling into Yellow Bear status on Nov 23, 2018. It climbed above Red on weekending, Dec 21, 2019 but fell into the domain of the Yellow Bear on weekending, Feb 14, 2020. That drop results in flatness since early 2016, but with a gentle bullish trend since early 2016. With that and a bullish economy, a bullish bounce should be expected. The 2020-mean forecast is at $185, while the more aggressive polynomials are forecasting $102-$103 by 2020. Its current configuration offers no support for inflation. It has been uncharacteristically steady for several years.

 

Mortgage rates fell into Yellow Bear status on weekending Apr 12, 2019.  They remain as Yellow Bears. Although other interest rates fell sharply this past week, mortgage rates increased due to pent up demands for housing. This remains a great time to finance real estate.

 

The consumer price index and producer price index are computing without the combined absolute value of threatening interest rates and inflation or deflation of 8%. Considerations of deflationary threats are not out of line, though. Fortunately, there are millions around the world willing to work and be consumptive. With that, the strong may offset the weak. The coronavirus is now disrupting that line of thinking.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions – Ten U.S. Indices

There were no new bull signals and one new bear signals this week for the major indices along the mid-term cycle.          

 

The Mid-term Indicant is signaling bear for nine major indices in addition to the new bear. Those nine major indices are down by an average of 23.1% since the Mid-term Indicant signaled sell an average of 2.6-weeks ago.

 

The Mid-term Indicant Dow Jones Industrial Average performance is at $83.506-million. That beats buy and hold performance of $2.874-million on a $10,000 investment in the Dow stocks in 1900. The MTI S&P500 is at $4.427-million. That beats buy and hold’s $1.357-million on a Jan 6, 1950 $10,000 investment. The MTI-NASDAQ is at $2.291-million. That beats buy and hold’s $687,952 on a Jan 29, 1971 $10,000 investment.  The MTI-Dow Transports is at $37.971-million. That is better than buy and hold $489,563 since a $10,000 investment on Oct 19, 1928. The Mid-term Indicant model beats buy and hold by 1,684.9%, 130.6%, 182.3%, and 4,369.4%, respectively, for these indices as of this past week.

 

There are two reasons why the Dow Transports is included in the above summary. It is used by the Dow Theory Forecast, which has merit, albeit slowly. The second reason is the statistical friendliness and its near-perfect sinusoidal waves. It tends to stay committed to its underlying cycle of bullishness or bearishness more than other indices.

 

The Indicant’s percentage advantage over buy and hold does not change during bull signals as buy and hold and the Indicant moves at the same magnitude. The Indicant’s advantage only occurs during bear signals as the cash holds constant, while the stock market dives. It sometimes takes a week or two for the statistics to settle.

 

Click here for a tour of the Mid-term Indicant for major market indices.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - NASDAQ100 Stocks

Click here to see NASDAQ100 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of NASDAQ 100 Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 30 Industrial Stocks

Click here to see Dow 30 report card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Table of Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones 15 Utility Stocks

Click here to see Dow Utilities Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant - Dow Jones Utility Stocks Table.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Indicant Selected Stocks  

Click here to see Indicant Select Stock Report Card history. Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Indicant Selected Stocks.

 

Mid-term Indicant Positions - Mutual Funds

Click here to see Mutual Fund Report Card history. Click here for the Mid-term Table of Mutual Funds.

 

The Mid-term Indicant signaled sell for MF#22-ProFunds Ultra Short on April 3, 2009. It is down 99.1% since then. Although this is classically a post-election-year hold, the Mid-term Indicant was unable to signal buy and hold during 2009, 2013, and 2017, as the stock market bear remained in hibernation, for the most part, in those three presidential post-election years. Polls and recent elections are highlighting left leaning political movements. Although poll accuracy is indeed questionable, a return to politburo wannabes in congress will offer this fund and others like it, profound growth opportunities at some future point, but not right now, even with the coronavirus inflicting damage to the stock market bull. Of course, if that happens, you would not be allowed to benefit from that opportunity to enjoy the wealth this would provide you. Politburo’s confiscate.

 

Click here for Mid-term Indicant Table of Mutual Funds

 

Remember never to keep more than 20% of your investment resources into a single mutual fund. Sector investing in mutual funds is an extremely good way to mix your investments.

 

Long Term Indicant Positions - Dow Jones Industrial Average

The blue-chip Long-term Indicant Bull signal was at 2895 for the DJIA in November 1991. Keep in mind the Long-term Indicant generated only five bull/bear cycles since 1920.

 

The Dow is up 562.4% (annualized at 19.7%) since the Long-term Indicant signaled bull 1,481-weeks ago. Economic data is the primary influence on the Long-term Indicant. Recessions, deflation, inflation, and unreasonable interest rates have not been strong enough to signal bear since that bull signal, including relative performance since that bull signal. Even with today’s economy and stock market position, the 1991 investor is still up triple digit amounts, which remains above average performance when considering long-term planning.

 

Influencing parameters in the LTI include prior bull cycles. The great bull market in the 1990’s was powerful enough to offset the 2008-2009 recessionary bear market in this long-term modeling.

 

The next section is the last daily stock market report for this past week

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Archives

{Repeated here are from the last trading day’s daily stock market report from the previous week. Click this link to see all the daily reports from the last 12-months. Retaining here in the weekly report allows for longer retention periods of the daily stock market reports that describe the short-term cycle at the end of each week}.

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Report Summary

Fri-Mar 20-Most non-contrarian force vectors shifted back into a bearish direction. That does not bode well for the stock market bull to the delight of the stock market bear. At least stock market force is willing to offer an argument to the stock market bear with force’s recent uptick. ETF#14-TLT-(Chart) force vector shifted into a bullish direction. That, along with pressure in bullish domains, prevented partially contrarian TLT from enduring a new near-term bear signal despite falling below green. It is getting close, however.  Partially contrarian ETF#11-GLD-(Chart) is similarly configured, but along the bearish yellow curve. It is already enduring a near-term bear signal and nearing a quick-term bear signal. It is falling due to a threat of deflation, primarily due to falling oil prices. Overall, the stock market bear is fully dominant right now along the short-term cycle. This weekend’s stock market report will discuss the more stable Mid-term Indicant cycle. Interestingly, purely contrarian ETN#31-VXX-(Chart) was down on today’s strong stock market bearishness, suggesting coronavirus fear elements are waning.

 

Thu-Mar 19-Volume is waning back to normalcy. Contrarian VIX-(Chart) force vector finally crossed below pressure, but that pressure is still very high in bullish domains. Non-contrarian force vectors are starting to rise, but still well below pressure. Bullish attributes require those force vectors to climb above pressure. Even with that, prices must climb above bull before any new bull signal. So three steps are required, but good to see force vectors arguing with the stock market bear.

 

Tue-Mar 17-The Dow Utilities force vector shifted back into a bullish direction today. That is a start on what appears to be a long journey ahead to the next bull signal. Keep in mind, all the remaining major indices continue with bearishly directed force. They must also shift to a bullish direction to support the journey to the next bull signal. However, the DJ Utitilies is attempting to suggest a possible bottom support level. Do not be surprised at banana republic cardiac arrest strong up and down days continuing on the immediate horizon. Until lazzie faire economics returns, the stock market bull will remain absent. 

 

Mon-Mar 16-As you know, the stock market bear is fully dominating. Bearish unanimity exists along the near-term, quick-term, and mid-term cycles. Your political leadership is destroying corporate profits. Regardless of their reasoning, capital markets only care about that. Force vectors have not found a bottom yet. Not one non-contrarian force vector has reversed direction back to bullish support. Even when it does, the stock market bear will not relinquish its control until force crosses above pressure with penetrations into bullish domains. Both are extraordinarily depressed. So far, that appears to be months from now.

 

Short-term Indicant Stock Market Details

Click this sentence to see table leading to the charts.

 

Index Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

 

Number of Near-term Bulls: 1 of 12

Duration of Near-term Bulls: 3.4-wks-avg.

Near-term Bull Performance: 138.3%; Annualized Performance: 2,098.3% (Contrarian-VIX)

 

Number of Near-term Bears: 11 of 12

Average Duration of Near-term Bears: 4.1-wks. avg.

Near-term Bears Average Performance: -29.0%

Near-term Performance Advantage: Feb 25-Stock Market Bear

           

Near-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses  

Near-term Indicant Configured Bullish Blue             Bulls: 1 of 12 

Near-term Indicant Configured Bearish Green Bears: 11 of 12  

 

Near-term Position Cyclical Advantage: Feb 25-Stock Market Bear

 

Index Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant signaled no new bulls and no new bears.

                                               

Number of Quick-term Bulls: 1 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term Bulls: 3.3-wks.

Quick-term Bull Performance: 158.5%; Quick-term Annualized Performance: 2,508.9%

 

Number of Quick-term Bears: 11 of 12

Average Duration of Quick-term Bears: 2.8-weeks-avg.

Quick-term Bear Performance: -24.1%

 

Quick-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 1 of 12       

Configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 11 of 12

 

Quick-term Configured Advantage: Feb 27, 2020-Quick-term Advantage to Bear

                       

Short-term Stock Market Cycle Analyses

Non-contrarian force vectors in bullish domains: 0 of 11

Non-contrarian force vectors higher than vector pressure: 0 of 11

Non-contrarian vector pressure in bullish domains: 0 of 11

Non-contrarian force vectors with bullish direction: 0 of 11                                           

Non-contrarian vector pressure with bullish direction: 0 of 11

Short-term Advantage: Short-term Stock Market Bear-effective Feb 27, 2020

 

Indicant Volume Indicators

Fri-Mar 20-Volume was down from recent averages, but still higher than normalcy on strong stock market bearishness. That again does not bode well for the stock market bull.

 

Thu-Mar 19-Well below recent and historical average volume accompanied a small bullish bounce. That is not very supportive of more bullish follow-on.

 

Wed-Mar 18-Very strong stock market bearishness was accompanied with slightly, but still high volume. That could be a beginning of the markets stabilizing.

 

Tue-Mar 17-Volume remains relatively high even on those banana republic bullish bounces. However, there is more volume on strong bearish days.

 

Mon-Mar 16-Volume is the same as last week. It continues at a healthy clip in full support of the stock market bear. Both volume indicators remain in the domain of high interest, correlating with strong stock market bearishness.

 

Short-term ETF Report Card, Status, and Charts

ETF Near-term Report Card Summary

The Near-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

 

The Near-term Indicant is signaling hold for three-ETF’s. Those enjoying hold signals are up by an average of 65.8% since their buy signals an average of 3.9-weeks ago, annualizing at 876.2%.

 

The NTI is avoiding 29-ETFs. They are down by an average of 28.7% since their sell signals an average of 4.8-weeks ago.

 

Near-term ETF Cycle Analyses

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 3

Contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 0

 

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Blue Bulls: 0

Partial Contrarian Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 2

 

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Blue     Bulls: 0

Non-contrarian configured Near-term Indicant Green Bears: 27

 

Near-term Advantage: Stock Market Bear Feb 25, 2020

          

ETF Quick-term Report Card Summary

The Quick-term Indicant generated no buy signals and no sell signals.

                       

The Quick-term Indicant is signaling hold for four ETF’s. They are up by an average of 58.8% since their buy signals an average of 29.3-weeks ago, annualizing at 104.3%.

 

The Quick-term Indicant is avoiding 28-ETFs. They are down by an average of 25.9% since their sell signals an average of 3.4-weeks ago.

                               

Quick-term ETF Cycle Analyses  

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 3

Contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 0

           

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Red Bulls: 0

Partial Contrarian Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 1

           

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Red      Bulls: 0

Non-contrarian configured Quick-term Indicant Yellow Bears: 27

 

Quick-term Advantage: Quick-term Stock Market Bear Mar 9, 2020

 

Reverse Tangential Projections                   

Click this sentence to the table, highlighting RTP’s (Reverse Tangential Projections). The values and magnitudes are expressed in the table on the website. Keep in mind there is 100% confidence in these bearish projections.

           

Click the Short-term Indicant to see the combined table of the Near-term Indicant, Quick-term, and Short-term Indicant. The table has links to charts for each. Each chart contains all three models and there are two separate buy and sell signals for the Near-term and/or Quick-term Indicant.

 

Other links:    

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the NASDAQ Composite Index

Short-term Indicant Historical Tables for the S&P500 Index

Indicant Volume Indicator

Understanding Content on the Short-term Indicant Charts

 

Indicant Conclusion

Bearish unanimity is in full swing along the short-term (near-term and quick-term) cycles and more importantly along the more stable and predictable mid-term cycle. The spread of the coronavirus is being blamed, while politician’s reaction to it is directly damaging the economy.

 

Click this sentence to keep up with the Short-term Indicant.

 

Click this sentence to maintain stock market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.

 

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.

 

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

 

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

 

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc., click the following hyperlink:

 

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm 

 

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the website, so you can always find your way back.

 

Stop Loss Management

This was moved to the bottom of this report as its content rarely changes. You will be notified when stop losses should be tightened or loosened.

 

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized capital gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the greater value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences.

 

For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

 

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying. Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

 

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

 

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

 

Indicant Conclusion

Force vector behavior is increasingly unfriendly to the stock market bull with a majority of the major indices in  a strong bearish direction. Force vectors remain below vector pressure. Until force moves above pressure, the stock market bull remains absent.  

 

Click this sentence to keep up with the Short-term Indicant.

 

Click this sentence to maintain stock market awareness along the Mid-term Indicant cycle.

 

Keep up with the daily stock market report as the short-term attributes can shift quickly. The daily updates are on the following link.

 

http://www.indicant.net/Non-Members/Back%20Issues/QT.htm

 

Do not get lazy and set those stop losses for those stocks and funds that continue to enjoy hold signals.

 

Hyperlinks

To access all major markets, stocks, funds, economic data, charts, statuses, etc., click the following hyperlink:

 

http://www.indicant.net/Members/Updates/All%20Update%20Forms/UD%20Summary.htm 

 

Once you are inside the website, click on "members update" or simply log in. It is on the top of every page in the website, so you can always find your way back.

 

Stop Loss Management

This was moved to the bottom of this report as its content rarely changes. You will be notified when stop losses should be tightened or loosened.

 

The Mid-term Indicant recommends a trailing stop loss of 8% for holds with less than a 20% unrealized capital gain. Of course, this includes new buys. Stop losses shortly after buying are the trickiest. Right after buying, set the stop loss at the greater value of 8% or green curve values, depending on your personal preferences.

 

For your longer-term holdings, where you are enjoying triple and quadruple digit gains, you may want to set your stop at the bearish yellow price. Do not worry if you stop out. New opportunities always emerge. The idea is to minimize losses.

 

Floor traders are aware of stop loss positions. If prices near those stop losses against the grain of directional bias, the floor traders will drive the price down to those stop losses and then buy for themselves and then quickly sell for profits at your expense. Although seemingly immoral, it is the nature of free markets and contributes to the desired liquidity of stock markets. This is one reason why stop losses should be well below prevailing prices but well above your buy price. That perfection, of course, is not attainable shortly after buying, which is the most dangerous period for holding. Use the Blue and Green curves or a combination thereof for stop loss management shortly after buying. Long after a successful buy, monitor prices relative to the bearish yellow curve. That will minimize the number of trades, while protecting portfolio values.

 

For new buys, set stop losses at the blue or green values in the tables. If green is deeply lagging the prevailing price, you may want to average the blue and green prices for your stop losses. If the green curve is rising and above your buy price, set the stop loss just below it. Green is a common bouncing point. Consider a stop loss a percentage below its value. Once green passes above your buy price, then adjust your stop losses, periodically, say weekly, at or just below green. Once yellow passes above your buy price, you should set the stop loss at the yellow price. That is a good tactic when longer-term holding positions are supported with expected fundamentals and your enjoyment of owning a piece of a great company or fund.

 

If your stop loss triggered sell, while Indicant continues signaling hold, normal advice would be to buy again. However, if the Near-term Indicant is signaling bear/avoid in related sectors, it is better to wait for specific buy signals from the Mid-term Indicant. In other words, other opportunities will emerge.

 

Happy Investing,

 

www.indicant.net

03/22/2020

 

 

 

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