The presidential post election year is the most bearish of the four year cycle since 1832. Until 2009, the post-election year lost money since 1832. The DJIA is used since its 1896-inception for these analytics. There were other indices prior to that. They date back to 1832.

The reason the post-election year is the most bearish along the four-year cycle is simple. Congress usually "goes along" with the newly elected president during the first year in office (the post-election year). Bi-partisanship between the executive and legislative branches of government can only be bearish. Those two branches are maximal representations of OPM disease. Therefore, their use of your money through coercive collections will conclude with maximal inefficiencies. This leeching of funds by the parasitical elite has a depressing effect on the economy and thus the reason no money has been made in the stock market since 1832 during presidential post-election years.

There are exceptions to the previous paragraph. When the incumbent president desires reduced regulations and generally supportive of capitalistic endeavors with agreements from the legislative branches of government, the stock market bull will be aroused. The most recent example of that occurred from 1985 through 1989.

Another exception is when the legislative and executive branches of government are extremely bi-partisan. A "do nothing" government is also extraordinarily bullish. The most recent example of that occurred from 1993-1999.

Finally, the stock market anticipates. If an incumbent is unfriendly to capitalistic desires, declining favorability in polls can incite stock market bullishness. This occurred in 2009.

The below chart highlights this political phenomenon. Again, the presidential pre-election year coincides with political vindictiveness. Politicians on the outside want in. To do that, those on the outside bad-mouth the incumbent. That weakens the incumbent. With that, the stock market rises with political hate speech and the weakening incumbent. Congressional turnover becomes more obvious during this tumultuous period and the stock market bull is delighted knowing that some of the corrupt politicians will be fired. All of that is bullish when the top economic leeches are being attacked by those just below them.

As you can see from the above table, investing in the stock market has yielded only $3,084-profit since 1832 in presidential post-election years. Keep in mind, that is not adjusted for inflation. That contrast with the $318,768-profit during the presidential pre-election years where a new Congress typically has little respect for the incumbent president. Political bickering and heightened contentious relationships between the executive and legislative branches of government is good for the economy and therefore bullish for the stock market.

The pathetic performance during the presidential post election years reflects a typical harmonistic relationship between the president and congress and thus the reason for the profound absence of stock market bullishness.

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