President Clinton's second term enjoyed a
continuation of the stock market bull.
As you can see, this period was a busy one. The buy and hold investor
the Indicant during this time due to several bull/bear signals that
produced small losses. As previously stated, no model can beat buy and
hold in a continuously forming stock market bull. The Indicant will avoid
the bears, but when no bear exist, there is nothing to avoid. However, the
Indicant joyfully participates in the bulls.
The stock market bull was disrupted late 1998
when Russia defaulted on loan payments. However, as usual, the stock
found a cyclical bottom in the mid-term election year after the Russian default
induced bearish drop.
The market does not like any
dishonest act against capitalists, most of which are promulgated and
legislated by the United States Congress and the President. When those two
are without philosophical differences, the stock market bear is
The cycle is a continuation of the secular
bull that was born in the early 1980's. The secular bull market perished
in January 2000. The longest economic boom in history ended shortly