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Dow Jones Industrial Average History

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The Indicant balance at bear signal #05 on October 9, 1992 was at $10,189,153. Buy and hold's account also enjoyed stupendous gains at $470,182. The Indicant enjoyed a 2,067.1% advantage over buy and hold at that time.

You will see that the Indicant lost some of its advantage over buy and hold over the next six years as the stock market bull propelled to historic levels and historical rates of growth. It is very difficult for any model to beat buy and hold during robust and dynamic bulls. However, you will later see, the Indicant could gloat in 2000-2002 and 2007-2009.

 

Although President George H.W. Bush, proclaimed Reaganomics as voodoo economics when campaigning ahead of the 1980-elections, he benefited from the related supply side economics. Three of the four years of his presidency yielded bullish conclusions.

The past two-hundred years or so offer ample evidence of the lying nature of politicians. While most are sneaky and very competent in the art of lying, George H.W. Bush was not. Despite that, he is guilty of it. His campaign promise in 1988 was "no new taxes." He said that loudly and clearly. Everyone heard it. Once elected, he proceeded to raise taxes. Most of us "in the know" were not surprised. He and his son, George W. Bush were very fiscally liberal.

The DJIA Index moved incongruently to historical standards in the post election year of 1989, which uncharacteristically demonstrated bullish expressions. However, the balance of this presidential election cycle was congruent to historical standards with the market finding its customary cyclical bottom in the mid-term election year and providing for bullish expressions in the pre-election year and election year..

The market did a poor job anticipating the 1990 recession, but again made up for its tardiness with a steep and quick drop. The recession was short, but fairly steep. Lingering unemployment and corporate downsizing pushed George H. W. Bush out of the Whitehouse from record high popularity ratings only a few months earlier.

Americans vote their pocket books on election day. If empty, the incumbent is fired. The only exception to that is the incumbent's propensity for re-election during wartime.

The collapse of communism, green mailing, and a rise in capitalistic Darwinian influences paved the path to unprecedented bull market cycles. Keep in mind, no trading model can outperform buy and hold during strong and long-lasting bull markets. Again, bears eventually come along and apply destructive results to those that buy and hold.

 

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