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Dow Jones Industrial Average History

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The stock market was about to enjoy a generation of bullish behavior. Nothing beats buy and hold during such periods. However, there were two solid bears following twenty years of stock market bullishness in 2000-2002 and in 2007-2008, justifying the Indicant's continuation.

The Indicant balance was at $4,424,893 at bear signal #09 on Oct 5, 1984. Buy and hold was at $177,264. The Indicant enjoyed a 2,396.2% performance advantage over buy and hold at that time.

 

President Reagan's first term endured a very severe economic recession. The election year of 1984 was abnormally bearish, while the other three years were normal. The post election year of 1981 was classically bearish. The mid-term year of 1982 classically found a cyclical market bottom. Finally, the pre-election year of 1983 enjoyed its normal dynamic bullishness.

Supply side economics and exposure to waste in government put an end to the ten-year secular bear market that originated in 1973. The stock market did not initially acknowledge Reagan's tax cuts, because the government had no plan to reduce spending. Just as important in favor of the economy, Sheik Yamani of OPEC, in an effort to drive the United States from being the swing nation of petroleum production, lowered oil prices to historical lows. That, coupled with Reagan's tax cuts, provided more spending capacity to individuals and industry around the world. This combination of events in the early 1980's ignited the secular stock market bull that lasted until 2000.

Again, the market identified the 1981 recession about six months before it occurred with the normal predecessor  market stock market bear.

 

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