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Dow Jones Industrial Average History

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Following bear signal #02 was frustrating to the Indicant. The Dow jumped north, but it took nearly a full calendar quarter before crossing above the short-term blue curve. During this tumultuous period, the Indicant lost value.

For example, at bear signal #02 on Nov 10, 1978, the Indicant account was at $3,552,933. By bear signal #08 on Mar 7, 1980, it was down to $3,276,125. For twenty-years we have attempted to fix that problem and there is no known mathematical or fundamental solution to it.

High speed trading phenomena in the 2007 appeared to be a bit better than the Indicant, but lost all the money they had made since the beginning, as their AI (artificial intelligence) methods attempted to correct.

With that, it is believed absolute perfection is not possible. In other words, universal law mandates taking it on the chin from time to time. We are still searching for absolute perfection. If we find it, members will be the second to know it.

By bear signal #10 on Jul 24, 1981, the Indicant balance was at $3,593,112. Buy and hold was at $140,420. Even with imperfections, the Indicant was outperforming buy and hold by 2,458.8% 

 

President Carter's tenure was also classical with post election bearishness, a cyclical bottom in the mid-term year, followed by stock market bullishness in the pre-election year and the election year.

However, the normally most bullish year along the four year cycle, was a choppy one. The presidential pre-election year was up by only 4.2%, which is well below the average performance.

The energy crisis continued during this era. U.S. rotary rig count was rapidly rising. Interest rates were double digit. The price of oil had been steadily and dramatically rising throughout the 1970's. But yet, Chrysler continued designing and manufacturing gas guzzlers and sloppy ones at that. While Toyota and Honda were enjoying rapidly increased sales during this era, GM, Ford, and Chrysler continued with their sloppy performance. Chrysler was the worse performer and had to be bailed out. Although this was simply wrong, this turned out okay with a short-term perspective. From a longer term perspective along the lines of universal law, Chrysler needed another bailout thirty years later in 2009, as the sons of Chrysler continued the same bad habits as their fathers. One can surmise that the great Walter P. Chrysler rolled over in his grave; twice. Rest assured,

The market briefly applauded the deregulation of airlines, but that was muted with the Three Mile Island nuclear disaster. The stock market does not like it when innocent people may not be able to make it work and generate profits for their employer.

The market was a little slow in anticipating the 1980 recession with a short-term bullish spurt just ahead of it. It again more than made up for its tardiness with a steep drop in late 1979.

The short 1980 recession was followed with a much more severe recession in 1981. The stock market anticipated that recession in a timely manner.

 

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