time of bear signal #01 on Sep 6, 1946, the Indicant balance was at
$481,159. Buy and hold was at $26,976. That is a 1,686% performance
advantage over buy and hold.
You should notice the Dow fell below the trip
line shortly after bear signal #03. The stock market endured mild
bearishness following that bear signal. The Indicant makes no attempt to
forecast the depth of the bears. It simply signals bear when the
attributes suggests to do so.
You should notice the trip line after bull
signal #04. The subsequent bearish cycle was a pitiful one even though the
Dow never fell below the trip line.
the pitiful bull-bear cycles during Truman's administration, the Indicant
account balance fell to $465,740 at bear signal #11 on Mar 25, 1949.
Buy and hold at that time amounted to $26,357. In that three year period,
from bear signal #01 through bear signal #11, the Indicant lost, on paper,
$15,419. Buy and hold lost $619.
As you can see, from time to time, the
Indicant endures penalties from unidentifiable bearish spurts, but over
any ten year period, it never under-performs buy and hold.
Indicant still held a performance advantage over buy and hold by 1,667% at
bear signal #11 on March 25, 1949.
So, since 1900, a 20-year old investing
$10,000 in the stock market and simply holding until age 70 would have
made $16,357. Another 20-year old following the Indicant's trading rules
along the Mid-term cycle would made $455,740 by age 70.
It gets better in the next fifty years for
both Indicant members and even the buy and holders fare pretty well.