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Dow Jones Industrial Average History

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At the time of bear signal #01 on Sep 6, 1946, the Indicant balance was at $481,159. Buy and hold was at $26,976. That is a 1,686% performance advantage over buy and hold.

You should notice the Dow fell below the trip line shortly after bear signal #03. The stock market endured mild bearishness following that bear signal. The Indicant makes no attempt to forecast the depth of the bears. It simply signals bear when the attributes suggests to do so.

You should notice the trip line after bull signal #04. The subsequent bearish cycle was a pitiful one even though the Dow never fell below the trip line.

After all the pitiful bull-bear cycles during Truman's administration, the Indicant account balance fell to $465,740 at bear signal #11 on Mar 25, 1949. Buy and hold at that time amounted to $26,357. In that three year period, from bear signal #01 through bear signal #11, the Indicant lost, on paper, $15,419. Buy and hold lost $619.

As you can see, from time to time, the Indicant endures penalties from unidentifiable bearish spurts, but over any ten year period, it never under-performs buy and hold. The Indicant still held a performance advantage over buy and hold by 1,667% at bear signal #11 on March 25, 1949.

So, since 1900, a 20-year old investing $10,000 in the stock market and simply holding until age 70 would have made $16,357. Another 20-year old following the Indicant's trading rules along the Mid-term cycle would made $455,740 by age 70.

It gets better in the next fifty years for both Indicant members and even the buy and holders fare pretty well.

 

Interestingly, the only good bullish year in FDR's final term, but led mostly by President Truman, was the normally bearish post election year of 1945.

Using the stock market as a gauge of presidential performance, one could argue that president Truman's term in office was a lackluster one. However, a post-war economy is typically bearish and beyond the control of any president. As a matter of hard fact, no president has any influence on bullish behavior. Their only influence to the stock market and economy has been bearish. That is because politicians produce and market nothing of value.

In essence, president Truman endured much of FDR policies during his first years in office. That, coupled with a post-war economy contributed to the 1948-1949-recession.

 

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