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Dow Jones Industrial Average History

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After the stock market crash of 1929, the bear continued in a dynamic state of arousal. The Smoot-Hawley tariff disallowed honest, productive people around the world to trade. Restrictions on honest commercial expressions is an elixir to the stock market bear. Protectionists and their two-dimensional simplicity with so-called "intellectualism" fed the stock market bear following the great crash of 1929.

The Indicant lost a bit of ground on the bull/bear cycles in 1930 and 1931. However, by bear signal #07 on Apr 10, 1931, the Indicant was out-performing buy and hold by 280.5%. However, from bear signal #03 on Nov 1, 1929 until bear signal #07 on Apr 10, 1931 the Indicant balance fell from $124,774 to $96,235. Buy and hold fared much worse, however, after bear signal #07 in 1931.

The Mid-term Indicant, as you can see from the above chart, remained out of the market from bear signal #07 for well over a year, as the stock market continued to plummet.

 

President Hoover's term endured stock market bears in all four of his years. As you can see from the above chart, those bears were record setting.

Hoovers' ideas sounded good. He promoted greater efficiencies in government. He did not understand that is impossible. He made a fortune in the private sector. He must have assumed the same worker output potential existed in the public sector. His naiveté contributed, somewhat, to his inability to turn the economy around.

Tactically, raising the top tax bracket from 25% to 63% during these horrible years was pretty stupid, furthering the depth of economic depression.

Hoover, however, was figuring it out near the end of his term, according to General Motor's CEO, Alfred P. Sloan. According to Sloan, President Hoovers' policies would work. Unfortunately, the American voters were not as sharp as Sloan and ousted Hoover in 1932.

Finally, notice the comment on top of the chart above, where a prominent Harvard economist predicted the bull would resume a few weeks after the crash of 1929. The intellectual elite have not improved since then, but they have learned to pontificate about non-quantitative conclusions. That prevents them being caught at their stupidity. Just listen to the contemporary so-called elites. They talk, using fancy language, but saying nothing of substance and always without any proof of their claims.

 

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