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Dow Jones Industrial Average History

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Bear signal #01 on January 10, 1910 was the first Mid-term Indicant signal since bull signal #04 in January 1908. The Indicant balance amounted to $24,584 at bear signal #01 on the above chart. Buy and hold account balance was at $13,778 at the same time. The Mid-term Indicant at this point was outperforming buy and hold by 78.4% at that time. At the time of bear signal #09 on Dec 6, 1912, the Indicant account balance was at $24,698. The buy and hold account balance was at $13,161. The Mid-term Indicant was now out-performing buy and hold by 87.7%. As you can see from the table, the Indicant lost a few advantage points with all those bull/bear signals from late 1910 through late 1911. Scrolling up the table, you will notice the Indicant held a 101.3% advantage at bear signal #03, above, on Dec 9, 1910.

 

Some could argue that President Taft did okay with three of his four-year's, finishing with a bullish conclusion. However, as you can see from the chart, the bullish Red Curve endured a bearish trend. The normally bullish pre-election year was indeed bullish but by a scant 0.4%, which was garnished by the heart and soul of bullish seasonality in the fourth quarter of 1911.

DJIA Index was again incongruent with presidential election cycle historical standards with a post election year stock market bull in 1909. However, the excitement of a Taft administration wore off quickly as the stock market shifted with bearish intensity in the mid-term election year of 1910.  However, the resulting bullish cycle from bull signal #02 through bear signal #07 was unimpressive. The pre-election year of 1911 was uncharacteristically bearish. As you can see, the Indicant avoided that bear cycle. Notice the bullish spurt following bear signal #01 never crossed above the short-term blue curve and Force Vector never climbed into bullish domains. That is why those bullish spurts were ignored despite periodic excitement.

Bull signal #02 in Oct 2010 was the classical mid-term election year cyclical bottom. Despite President Taft's "harmony with congress" policy, Democrats resumed control of the U.S. House of Representatives for the first time in 16-years. As you can see, "harmony with congress" did not inspire the stock market bull in the normally bullish pre-election year. There were several bull/bear signals, as the stock market fell below short-term blue and related trip lines. Too many people, even to this day, promote "harmony with congress." That is generally bearish. And that is always destructive to the quality of life.

The introduction of the Model-T Ford incited bullish response in 1908, which helped sustain the normally bullish presidential election year and even supported bullish behavior in the normally bearish post election year of 1909. Also, you will notice the stock market anticipated 1910-1911 recession with a cyclical peak about six months before the recession started. The Dow was on target with that one and the Indicant could also gloat with bear signal #09. By then, it was apparent the Income Tax amendment was being strongly considered. Of course, an economic recession quickly followed as more money was going to be taken from the productive and given to the unproductive and corrupt in Washington D.C.

 

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