Mid-term Indicant-DJIA-1905-1909

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Bull signal #04 on Jan 10, 1908 turned out to be enjoyable and doubly so. The buy and hold investor endured a 50% bear after bear signal #03 on Feb 1, 1907. The buy and hold investor was up 38.5% since the Jan 1, 1900 $10,000 investment with an account balance of $13,580. With that, there was justification for buying and holding. However, the Indicant avoided the stock market from bear signal #03 until bull signal #04. Consequently, the Indicant account balance was at $16,854 or 24.1% better than buy and hold before the bear completed its nasty cycle in 1907. The next bear signal did not occur until 1910.

You should notice the Dow fell below the Trip Line shortly after bull signal #04. The Mid-term Indicant did not signal bear since Force Vectors did not fall below Vector Pressure. Lost hold positions were reported for several weeks, but as you can see, holding turned out to be the appropriate thing to do.

T.Roosevelt endured two bearish years of his four year term. When coupling his three years of the McKinley term, his leadership contributed to four bearish years out of the seven years he was president. The pre-election year of 1907 was the most bearish on record (since 1832) as his so-called progressive movement was economically damaging.

DJIA Index was incongruent with the U.S. election cycle's historical standards of bearish behavior with a stock market bull in the post election year of 1905. The stock market found a cyclical bottom in the mid-term election year of 1906. That is common and usually followed by two bullish years. Unfortunately, the depth of that bearish spurt triggered a bear signal (#01) and quickly followed by a new bull signal (#02), as the Dow crossed above the short-cycle blue curve with supporting Force Vector behavior.

The pre-election year of 1907 was uncharacteristically bearish and significantly so, dropping 37.7%. Interestingly, bear signal #03 occurred with the Dow falling below the short-term blue curve, the mid-term red curve, and the trip line at the same time. As you can see, the Indicant avoided that stock market bear cycle.

Some may be annoyed with bear signal #01, which was very closely configured with attributes at bear signal #03. So, for those would allow that annoyance to carry forward and ignore bear signal #03 would endure decline in holdings of over 40%. So, for those looking for an absolute perfect model, please use another service. If you find perfection, we will pay a finder's fee and discontinue doing all this work.

The first Trans-Atlantic wireless transmission did not ignite a bullish response as the market anticipated the recession that began in early 1907. You will notice a mild bullish spurt concurrent to the Atlantic transmission, but the Dow never crossed above the short-term blue curve with Force Vectors deep inside bearish domains.

Even the greatest of inventions become irrelevant with uninspiring economic activity during this era. Roosevelt's "Square Deal" and increased regulations on businesses invigorated the stock market bear. Roosevelt wanted the average citizen to get a fair share. Again, social agenda is always tantalizing to the stock market bear due to such nonsensical potential economic devastation..

As you can see, the stock market bull sensed Roosevelt would not seek re-election. That inspired the stock market bull.

There is no evidence that the average citizen gained from Roosevelt's "Square Deal." However, there is ample evidence that Henry Ford's efforts created many more wealthy people for several generations. The stock market bull was obviously aroused and propelled northward in the normally post election year bearishness due to capitalistic product offerings, such as Ford's low cost, highly effective, automobile. Ford was real; Roosevelt was phony.