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Dow Jones Industrial Average History

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The Dow was down 28.8% at the time of bear signal #09 on May 20, 1904. The Jan 1 1900 buy and hold investment of $10,000 was down to $7,125. The Mid-term Indicant was disappointedly down by 3.2% or at $9,729 at that time. Although the Mid-term Indicant was disappointing, it enjoyed a 36.6% performance advantage over buy and hold. Scroll down for other comments and links.


Although President McKinley was assassinated during his first year in office, three of the four years were stock market bears.

The DJIA Index was congruent with presidential election cycle historical standards with market falling in the post election year of 1901. Although the classical temporary bottom was found in the mid-term election year of 1902, the stock market bear enjoyed success in the pre-election year of 1903 contrary to historical expectations of stock market bullishness. This was the most bearish pre-election year since 1832.

The first auto show sparked a bullish response and the Wright brother's first flight contributed to a cyclical bottom during a half-way point of the 1902-1904 recession. You will later see how the market does not always anticipate or respect economic recessions. Human emotion is the biggest market driver, which is not quantifiable in and of itself, while the stock market does an excellent job of gauging it.

Notice the bearish response to President McKinley's assassination. You will later see how the market reflects changing human morals and values, as political assassinations in future years demonstrated little influence on the stock market. Without any intended disrespect for the deceased, the markets recognize that political leadership's only positive impact to free markets is to undo their prior damage. Thus, the market increasingly shows little respect for presidential mortality.

Capitalists are providers of increased quality of life. Politicians take away. Free markets invest in capitalists; not politicians. Although the stock market generated a bearish response to President McKinley's assassination, you will notice future such events were less responsive. Not meaning to be insensitive, the capital markets eventually recognized the economic irrelevance to presidential deaths.


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