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Dow Jones Composites Mid-term Indicant
Performance Tables Since 1993
Scroll down to see performance
and bull/bear signals and accessibility to historical charts.
This was updated on Jan 1, 2014 and will again be
updated at the conclusion of the next presidential cycle in 2017.
Click this sentence to see current performance tables.
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Although the Indicant significantly
outperforms the DJIA, DJU, and DJT, it struggles a bit when consolidating
all sixty-five stocks into this index. The Indicant's performance
advantage increased significantly as it avoided the 2007-2008 stock market
bear. A few false bear signals when this index fell below the short-cycle
green curve with bearish negative pressure in the 2009-2013 stock market
bull allowed buy and hold to again catch-up to the Indicant. The Indicant
commonly loses some advantage during strong bull markets, as its only
source of gaining advantages is steep bearish cycles. This Indicant
initiated tracking of this index in 1993, which was during the historic
bull market. As you can see from the below chart, the Indicant's
performance advantage only occurs during bear markets and mainly during
significant ones. The Indicant's account value since the $10,000
investment in 1993 amounts to $45,417 which is just shy of the buy and
hold account value of $46,551. The Indicant will regain its advantage in
the next bear market. The mild adjustment to the model in 2012 will
enhance that advantage by participating earlier in bull markets, while the
bear signal is the same as it has always been since 1900. |
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DJU Bull/Bear Cycles |
Click Chart Years |
Bull Sig # |
Bull Sig Date |
Bull Sig Price |
Bear Sig # |
Bear Sig Date |
Bear Sig Price |
Weeks Held |
% Gain or Loss |
Indicant Value |
Buy/Hold Value |
Indicant Performance Advantage |
|
1 |
Start |
N/A |
01/01/93 |
1204.6 |
N/A |
01/01/93 |
1204.6 |
N/A |
0.0% |
$10,000 |
$10,000 |
0.0% |
|
2 |
1993-1997 |
N/A |
01/01/93 |
1204.6 |
#01 |
04/01/94 |
1297.8 |
65 |
7.7% |
$10,774 |
$10,774 |
0.0% |
|
3 |
1993-1997 |
#02 |
08/05/94 |
1303.5 |
#03 |
09/23/94 |
1281.5 |
7 |
-1.7% |
$10,592 |
$10,638 |
-0.4% |
|
4 |
1993-1997 |
#04 |
12/30/94 |
1281.5 |
#01 |
08/28/98 |
2551.6 |
191 |
99.1% |
$21,090 |
$21,182 |
-0.4% |
|
5 |
1997-2001 |
#02 |
10/30/98 |
2692.3 |
#03 |
09/24/99 |
2989.94 |
47 |
11.1% |
$23,421 |
$24,821 |
-5.6% |
|
6 |
1997-2001 |
#04 |
10/29/99 |
3130.23 |
#05 |
01/28/00 |
3036.26 |
13 |
-3.0% |
$22,718 |
$25,206 |
-9.9% |
|
7 |
1997-2001 |
#06 |
03/17/00 |
2989.87 |
#07 |
03/16/01 |
2993.92 |
52 |
0.1% |
$22,749 |
$24,854 |
-8.5% |
|
8 |
1997-2001 |
#08 |
04/13/01 |
3106.07 |
#09 |
08/17/01 |
3057.84 |
18 |
-1.6% |
$22,395 |
$25,385 |
-11.8% |
|
9 |
2001-2005 |
#01 |
01/04/02 |
2977.82 |
#02 |
02/08/02 |
2819.41 |
5 |
-5.3% |
$21,204 |
$23,405 |
-9.4% |
|
10 |
2001-2005 |
#03 |
03/01/02 |
2991.81 |
#04 |
04/26/02 |
2911.12 |
8 |
-2.7% |
$20,632 |
$24,167 |
-14.6% |
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11 |
2001-2005 |
#05 |
01/10/03 |
2488.85 |
#06 |
01/24/03 |
2293.77 |
2 |
-7.8% |
$19,015 |
$19,042 |
-0.1% |
|
12 |
2001-2005 |
#07 |
03/21/03 |
2383.32 |
#01 |
01/04/08 |
4230.8 |
250 |
77.5% |
$33,755 |
$35,122 |
-3.9% |
|
13 |
2005-2009 |
#02 |
04/04/08 |
4341.42 |
#03 |
06/20/08 |
4308.59 |
11 |
-0.8% |
$33,500 |
$35,768 |
-6.3% |
|
14 |
2009-2013 |
#04 |
05/08/09 |
2967.18 |
#01 |
08/05/11 |
3926.8 |
117 |
32.3% |
$44,334 |
$32,598 |
36.0% |
|
15 |
2009-2013 |
#02 |
10/21/11 |
4087.67 |
#03 |
06/01/12 |
4187.57 |
32 |
2.4% |
$45,417 |
$34,763 |
30.6% |
|
16 |
2009-2013 |
#04 |
06/29/12 |
4427.42 |
#05 |
11/09/12 |
4310.59 |
19 |
-2.6% |
$45,417 |
$35,784 |
26.9% |
|
17 |
2009-2013 |
#06 |
12/14/12 |
4414.19 |
#01 |
08/21/15 |
5900.13 |
140 |
33.7% |
$59,104 |
$49,980 |
20.7% |
|
18 |
2013-2017 |
#02 |
10/09/15 |
6080.73 |
#03 |
12/11/15 |
5906.39 |
9 |
-2.9% |
$57,410 |
$49,032 |
17.1% |
|
19 |
2013-2017 |
#04 |
02/19/16 |
5798.10 |
TBD |
01/05/18 |
8449.13 |
98 |
45.7% |
$83,659 |
$70.141 |
19.3% |
TBD Means there was no signal at the
conclusion of 2017. They will be identified when the 2017-2021-charts are
updated
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