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Dow Jones Composites Mid-term Indicant Performance Tables Since 1993

Scroll down to see performance and bull/bear signals and accessibility to historical charts.

This was updated on Jan 1, 2014 and will again be updated at the conclusion of the next presidential cycle in 2017.

Click this sentence to see current performance tables.

 

Although the Indicant significantly outperforms the DJIA, DJU, and DJT, it struggles a bit when consolidating all sixty-five stocks into this index. The Indicant's performance advantage increased significantly as it avoided the 2007-2008 stock market bear. A few false bear signals when this index fell below the short-cycle green curve with bearish negative pressure in the 2009-2013 stock market bull allowed buy and hold to again catch-up to the Indicant. The Indicant commonly loses some advantage during strong bull markets, as its only source of gaining advantages is steep bearish cycles. This Indicant initiated tracking of this index in 1993, which was during the historic bull market. As you can see from the below chart, the Indicant's performance advantage only occurs during bear markets and mainly during significant ones. The Indicant's account value since the $10,000 investment in 1993 amounts to $45,417 which is just shy of the buy and hold account value of $46,551. The Indicant will regain its advantage in the next bear market. The mild adjustment to the model in 2012 will enhance that advantage by participating earlier in bull markets, while the bear signal is the same as it has always been since 1900. 

DJU Bull/Bear Cycles Click Chart Years Bull Sig # Bull Sig Date Bull Sig Price Bear Sig # Bear Sig Date Bear Sig Price Weeks Held % Gain or Loss Indicant Value Buy/Hold Value Indicant Performance Advantage
1 Start N/A 01/01/93 1204.6 N/A 01/01/93 1204.6 N/A 0.0% $10,000 $10,000 0.0%
2 1993-1997 N/A 01/01/93 1204.6 #01 04/01/94 1297.8 65 7.7% $10,774 $10,774 0.0%
3 1993-1997 #02 08/05/94 1303.5 #03 09/23/94 1281.5 7 -1.7% $10,592 $10,638 -0.4%
4 1993-1997 #04 12/30/94 1281.5 #01 08/28/98 2551.6 191 99.1% $21,090 $21,182 -0.4%
5 1997-2001 #02 10/30/98 2692.3 #03 09/24/99 2989.94 47 11.1% $23,421 $24,821 -5.6%
6 1997-2001 #04 10/29/99 3130.23 #05 01/28/00 3036.26 13 -3.0% $22,718 $25,206 -9.9%
7 1997-2001 #06 03/17/00 2989.87 #07 03/16/01 2993.92 52 0.1% $22,749 $24,854 -8.5%
8 1997-2001 #08 04/13/01 3106.07 #09 08/17/01 3057.84 18 -1.6% $22,395 $25,385 -11.8%
9 2001-2005 #01 01/04/02 2977.82 #02 02/08/02 2819.41 5 -5.3% $21,204 $23,405 -9.4%
10 2001-2005 #03 03/01/02 2991.81 #04 04/26/02 2911.12 8 -2.7% $20,632 $24,167 -14.6%
11 2001-2005 #05 01/10/03 2488.85 #06 01/24/03 2293.77 2 -7.8% $19,015 $19,042 -0.1%
12 2001-2005 #07 03/21/03 2383.32 #01 01/04/08 4230.8 250 77.5% $33,755 $35,122 -3.9%
13 2005-2009 #02 04/04/08 4341.42 #03 06/20/08 4308.59 11 -0.8% $33,500 $35,768 -6.3%
14 2009-2013 #04 05/08/09 2967.18 #01 08/05/11 3926.8 117 32.3% $44,334 $32,598 36.0%
15 2009-2013 #02 10/21/11 4087.67 #03 06/01/12 4187.57 32 2.4% $45,417 $34,763 30.6%
16 2009-2013 #04 06/29/12 4427.42 #05 11/09/12 4310.59 19 -2.6% $45,417 $35,784 26.9%
17 2009-2013 #06 12/14/12 4414.19 TBD 12/27/13 5607.52 54 27.0% $45,417 $46,551 -2.4%

 

 

 

 

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