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March 20, 2008

03/20/08-VIX Index - Bearish yellow curve has shifted direction to the north. The tangent green line to this yellow inflection point is constructed to identify a potential resumption of VIX bullishness and stock market bearishness.

03/20/08-S&P600 - The weakest major index during bear markets is holding above bullish red curve. Although the trend remains bearish, the probability of a sustainable bullish cycle remains above 70%. The red curve is difficult to see, as this is a working chart and not normally published. A drop below the furthermost right purple line will signal resumption of bear with significant sustainability and depth.

 

March 19, 2008

03/19/07 - VIX continues supporting bullish market bias.

03/19/07 - S&P600-Small Caps did not falter to full bearish influence on today's aggressive bear. Small caps are more bearish during bull markets. Conversely, small cap indices are more bullish during bull markets. This index is teetering on the brink of moving in either direction, but again it did not succumb to the bear on today's aggressive bear.

March 18, 2008 Supplement

03/18/08 - The VIX Index fell significantly on today's stock market bullish expression. It has a few more technical barriers to pass through. However, current configurations support bullish behavior.

03/18/08 The S&P600 Force Vector continues to rise even in the face of exhaustion. This could also devolve to a spurt, but it will be recognizable early in the bullish expiration

March 17, 2008 Supplement

03/17/08 - The VIX Index indeed penetrated the former ceiling today. Its Force Vector continues to move south, but it hung up. A southerly movement here would invoke stock market bullishness. But it continues resisting in its support.

03/17/08 The S&P600 Force Vector continues to rise. However, it appears exhausted.

 

March 16, 2008 Supplement

Notice the S&P600 rising Force Vector. Prior to Bear Stearns fiasco, the rising Force Vectors were one of the elements supporting the 94.395% probability of bullish expectations even if a mere bullish spurt.

If this rising Force Vector shifts back to the south, many of last Tuesday's buy signals will be reversed with sell signals.

 

 

The VIX Index nestled on a peak. This has triggered bullish stock market responses in the recent past. VIX is a contrarian index. The market moves bullishly when it moves to the south. Although it is possible for VIX to continue to rise, probabilistic conclusions have it moving south, which should be accompanied by stock market bullishness. If it moves north above the purple line on Monday, there is a high likelihood the Short-term Indicant will revert from bull to bear followed by ETF sell signals

The higher risk S&P600-Small Cap Index could not escape its bearishly sloping trading range limits from the Mid-term Indicant charts. As you can see, it tried last week and without the Bear Stearns bearish influence on the stock market last Friday, it may have very well escaped the upper range limit. This bearishly slope range limit is along the same degrees as that of the Dow's 1930-32 slope. It needs to escape quickly or the market is advising of an economic environment of more than just simple recessionary behavior.

The bluest of blue chips are also constrained within the bearishly sloping range limits on the Mid-term Indicant charts.

The bear's influence, if not disrupted, suggests the Dow30 will be below 10,000 before year end. Its recent breakdown contact is the first since 2002. Such contact typically arouses the bull before submitting entirely to the bear. Next week's market behavior will prompt a significant adjustment to probabilistic issues and other technical data. Fundamentally, there is little doubt about troubling economic conditions, but the market is primarily concerned about the fourth quarter of this year at this time. That means there is a possibility for a bullish rebound ahead of the normally bearish year, 2009.

 

 

 

 

 

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