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Weekly Supplement - February 2, 2014

The DJIA peaked in Oct 1929 and briefly eclipsed that peak in 1964 when discounting inflationary impacts based on the CPI. During the 1970's the combination of high inflation, high interest rates, and an underperforming stock market, the Dow again fell below its 1929 peak. It took the great bull market of the 1990's to escape the wrath of inflationary pressures to the Dow30 stocks. In 2000-$'s, the Dow climbed back to where it was in 2000 after two bear cycles during the first decade of this century. The DJIA closed 2013 at 1618.95 in 1929-$'s, which is not too bad.
The S&P500 peaked in mid-1960's and again hit that peak in 1994. The great 1990's stock market bull propelled it to a new inflation-adjusted all-time high in 2000. The S&P500 has not yet recovered from the two great bear markets of the 2000's. The S&P500 closed 2013 at 184.77 in 1949-$'s, again which is not too bad.
The NASDAQ 's high in 1973 was regained in 1991 with some permanency. The 1987 stock market bear delayed that for a few more years. The NASDAQ closed 2013 at 700.12 in 1971-$'s and also beating inflation.
The DJ-Transports peaked in 1929 and did not eclipse that inflation-adjusted peak again until 1995. It has been holding above that 1930-peak since 1995. Each drop to that 1995-peak has associated with a stock market bottom since 1995. At any rate, it has held up well against inflation since the early 1990s despite its inability to do so for 68-years from 1929 through 1995.
The DJ-Utilities also peaked in 1929 and has not yet returned to that peak. It closed 2013 at an inflation adjusted 33.46 well below its Sep 1929 close at 137.70. It is a U.S. domestic-only industry and highly regulated. It is the only index among those listed above that has failed to keep up with inflation for nearly 100-years. One has to wonder why this index would be referred to as a safe haven for bearish stock markets. (Note: This excludes considerations for dividends).

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