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Supplement to August 16, 2009 Weekly Report

Discourse Between Executive and Legislative Branches of Government Is Bullish

From January through March, the President of the United States was doing his job; that is, dealing with international issues. Much of the president's content with such issues had no stock market impact. As you can see, the stock market propelled south as the president's disapproval rating climbed north. In other words, there was no statistical relationship between the president's decline in popularity and the stock market. The president's popularity declined based on the perception of the "apology tour" around the world. The so-called "apology tour" was irrelevant to the stock market.

By March/April 2009, the president focused attention to domestic matters. Domestic issues are supposed to be more or less addressed by Congress. When the executive and legislative branches of government "get along" and concur on domestic economic issues, the bear is delighted. As you can see, the dynamics of presidential disapprovals in the polls and the bullish stock market are statistically correlated and significant. The bull delights when there is political discourse. The bull prefers political stalemating between the legislative and executive branches of government. The legislative branch of government is less likely to support a president with declining popularity and thus the bull. If Cap and Trade and Healthcare Reform are approved in their current form, the bear will resume dominance, regardless of the relationship shown in the below charts. Capitalists have provided all solutions to all problems that confront humanity. Politicians and governments have never solved any problem; they pretty much create the problems.

Source: Rasmussen Reports - The Rasmussen Polls have a history of being more accurate than other polls and thus the reason for its use.

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