Supplement to August 16, 2009 Weekly Report
Discourse Between Executive and Legislative Branches of
Government Is Bullish
|From January through March, the President
of the United States was doing his job; that is, dealing with
international issues. Much of the president's content with such issues had
no stock market impact. As you can see, the stock market propelled south
as the president's disapproval rating climbed north. In other words, there
was no statistical relationship between the president's decline in
popularity and the stock market. The president's popularity declined based
on the perception of the "apology tour" around the world. The so-called
"apology tour" was irrelevant to the stock market.
By March/April 2009, the president focused attention to
domestic matters. Domestic issues are supposed to be more or less
addressed by Congress. When the executive and legislative branches of
government "get along" and concur on domestic economic issues, the bear is
delighted. As you can see, the dynamics of presidential disapprovals in
the polls and the bullish stock market are statistically correlated and
significant. The bull delights when there is political discourse. The bull
prefers political stalemating between the legislative and executive
branches of government. The legislative branch of government is less
likely to support a president with declining popularity and thus the bull.
If Cap and Trade and Healthcare Reform are approved in their current form,
the bear will resume dominance, regardless of the relationship shown in
the below charts. Capitalists have provided all solutions to all problems
that confront humanity. Politicians and governments have never solved any
problem; they pretty much create the problems.
Source: Rasmussen Reports - The Rasmussen Polls have a history of
being more accurate than other polls and thus the reason for its use.