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Apr 22, 2008 - Click here to see VIX
Apr 22, 2008 - Click here to see S&P600
Apr 21, 2008 - QQQQ 2002-2008 - Yellow Bear Implosion - Vector Pressure is moving south after price penetration above bearish yellow curve. The correction from this point ranges from 5% to 8% in normal market behavior. However, scan your eyeballs to the extreme left side of the chart. As you can see, there is a significant probability of a 50% slide to the south. Price rises from south of bearish yellow to yellow invites that sort of bearish potential. Sour economic fundamentals elevate that probability. Scanning from the extreme left of the chart to late 2004, mid-2005, and late 2006 illustrate no bearish responses to this phenomena. As you can see, unimpeded bullish cycle resumed. With the exception of 2006, bearish yellow configured as a bouncing point to bearish behavior, while 2002 only endured a 50% bearish attack. Sour economic fundamentals are biased more toward 2002 type of behavior that 2004, 2005, or 2006 behavior. 2007 did not incur such bearish configurations, even though that was when Bear Stearns and related companies were expanding the pinnacle of their extreme stupidity and/or dishonesty. There is no doubt that this is a multiple choice observation; 1) stupidity, 2) dishonesty, 3) both. Picking any of the three choices will not be wrong. The stock market does not have short memories of that sort of fundamental behavior. Thus the conservatism on generating buy signals in the face of aggressive bullish expressions.
Apr 21, 2008 - VIX - Bearish yellow is about to contact Y-minimum cycle tangential line. A strong bullish implication can follow this event as a major technical barrier to stock market bullishness, so to speak, is about to be shattered. The only event preventing this would be a dynamic bearish expression in the next two days. The VIX would be bullish in that case and thus move up to prevent bearish yellow from dropping to lower levels. Conflicting configurations illustrate a declining Force Vector and a rising index. Today's increase is somewhat ominous with respect to the bullish stock market cycle now underway.

Apr 21, 2008 S&P600 - The weakest index in bear markets and the strongest index in bull markets was mildly bearish today. This suggests the market remains a bear, since the S&P 600 was bearish on an otherwise flat day.

Apr 20, 2008 ETF's week ending April 18, 2008. Notice non-contrarian ETF #01, #02, #04, and #06 are struggling to climb above bearish yellow. That does not mean they will not be successful in their effort, but the energy expended to date has attributes suggesting exhaustion. In other words, there has been little economic substance to justify it other than some impressive corporate profit reports; many of which will be reviewed as to sector intensive, as opposed to economic breadth. ETF#05 is also non-contrarian but represents the sector of incompetence; that is banking. It's bullish red curve has collapsed to that of bearish yellow. The last time that occurred on any index or ETF was in 2001/2. ETF#03 is contrarian and due to its energy sector influence can continue to enjoy bullish behavior.
Apr 20, 2008 - ETF's.....repeated from last week. The blow is an example of six ETF's tracked by the Quick-term Indicant. You will notice that five of the six are yellow bears. ETF#3 is contrarian energy and does not succumb to the same economic fundamentals as the other five. You will notice two buy signals in the recent past. Those buy signals are uncharacteristic since they occurred during yellow bear configurations. The Quick-term Indicant seldom signals buy with that characteristic. You will notice the Quick-term Indicant signaled sell for four of these ETF's last Friday. ETF#05-XLF did not receive a buy signal recently. Fundamentals did not support it, even though it had similar technical attributes. At any rate, risk of continued holding when the bearish yellow curve acted as a ceiling to bullish movement is too high. You should not continue holding these and the other ETF's that endured a sell signal this weekend.

 

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